Who Should be the Opening Day First Baseman for the Brewers?

Going into the 2013 season, the Milwaukee Brewers were supposed to be reasonably deep at first base.  Starting would be slugger Corey Hart, who is capable of putting up a .270 batting average and 30 home runs per season while playing a decent first base.  If something went wrong with him, it wouldn't be good, but the Brewers would have an internal option in Mat Gamel, who started the 2011 season as the starting first baseman with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Well, first the news came out that Corey Hart would be out until at least the end of April but more like until the middle or end of May with a knee injury.  And then, on the first day of spring training for him, Mat Gamel re-aggravated his ACL injury from last year, which will likely keep him out of action for the entire 2013 season.

Now, the Brewers do not have a bona fide first baseman to start the year.  For a while, it looked like a possibility that the Brewers would bring in Lyle Overbay to play first with Gamel until Hart came back.  Well, Overbay signed with the Boston Red Sox, meaning the Brewers will have to look at other options.

I made a list of 9 potential opening day starters at first base for the Brewers.  Included in this list are three players who were otherwise likely to at least have a shot to make the opening day roster for the Milwaukee Brewers this year: Taylor Green, Alex Gonzalez, and Bobby Crosby.  I also included three minor league candidates who would otherwise be long shots to make the team: Hunter Morris, Sean Halton, and Khris Davis.  Finally, I looked at three available free agents who may pique interest from the Brewers: Carlos Lee, Aubrey Huff, and Mike Carp.

Obviously, this is not a full list of candidates.  Other candidates may include current Brewers like Martin Maldonado, other Minor League candidates like Erick Almonte or Caleb Gindl, other free agents like Derrek Lee, or even players who may be dropped by other teams, a group that could include names like Travis Ishikawa and Matt LaPorta.

However, I just looked at the nine players listed above.  I researched the Eq. Run for each player in 2011 and 2012.  If the player played a significant amount of time in the minor leagues, I used a Minor League equalizer (http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/mlecalc) to determine a Major League equivalent for each player.  If the player spent time at different levels, I used a weighted average of their time at each level using plate appearances to come up with an overall stat.  For Major League players, I also factored "luck" into the equation.  I tried to do that by using an expected BABIP and adjusting OBP to that.  That kind of information is hard to find for Minor League players, so luck is included in all of their stats.

Here is a table of what I came up with:

                      2011      2012
Taylor Green          5.542     3.521
Alex Gonzalez         3.177     4.974
Bobby Crosby          2.947     N/A
Hunter Morris         2.425     4.478
Sean Halton           3.518     4.086
Khris Davis           3.386     5.973
Carlos Lee            5.171     4.235
Aubrey Huff           3.781     4.587
Mike Carp             5.491     3.330

I also put together a bar graph to show how these players look comparatively:

Some of the options certainly look better than others.  I will go one by one to list pros and cons to signing each of them:

Taylor Green - The Major League Favorite.  Out of all the players currently on the Brewers, Taylor Green seems like the most likely option.  He played first base a bit last year and was considered an option when Gamel got injured.  However, he didn't really live up to expectations.  He had an excellent year in AAA in 2011 and followed it up with an underwhelming call-up in the Majors.  In 2012, he had an average year in AAA and would have likely stayed there all year if Gamel hadn't gotten injured last year.  If he can put together a Major League season that resembles what he did in the Minors in 2011, he would be a great option.  However, he has been disappointing as a Major League player.  In addition, he has had a very up and down Minor League career; 2011 was a bit out of the ordinary for him.

Alex Gonzalez - The Shortstop Turned Utility Player.  Alex Gonzalez was signed by the Brewers to be the starting shortstop last year.  Shortstops are generally seen as better fielders and worse hitters than shortstops.  As a matter of fact, it is almost a given that shortstop is the hardest position to play outside of catcher and that first base is the easiest position to play.  Because of that, first basemen generally hit better than shortstops to make up for the lack of defense.  Alex Gonzalez is a slightly light-hitting shortstop.  He can hit for some power, but he has problems getting on base and he couldn't even find a starting shortstop offer after an injury sidelined him for most of the year last year.  The chart above shows that he was good at the plate last year; however, that was about one month's worth of plate appearances, a very small sample size.  In his most recent full year, he hit for approximately 3.18 eq. runs / game (i.e. a team of 9 Alex Gonzalezes would score about 3.18 runs per game).  That is pretty bad, even for a shortstop.  As a utility player, he is a very good option (better than Cesar Izturis for the Brewers last year).  As a starting first baseman, he is not only well below average, he is well below "replacement level", which in essence means the Brewers could replace him with a player getting paid the league minimum and get more production.

Bobby Crosby - The Loooooooooooooong Shot.  Bobby Crosby's career started very well.  In 2004, Crosby hit for a .239/.319/.426 line, which translates to an equivalent run statistic of 4.541.  It's not earth shattering, but it does show how a shortstop is held to a much lower offensive standard than first basemen.  He won Rookie of the Year in the American League that year.  Since then, it has been all downhill.  I put him in the first group to make the groups even; however, it is unlikely he'd make the Brewers over Jean Segura, Alex Gonzalez, and Jeff Bianchi.  However, he has been willing to try his luck at first base and has some experience over there.  The biggest con for him is that he hasn't played Major League ball (or even Minor League Ball) since 2010, and even then, he was struggling mightily (2.947 equivalent runs in 2011).  He's an extremely long shot to make the team, much less to be the starting first baseman to begin the year.

 Hunter Morris - The First Baseman of the Future... Today?  Of all of the Minor League options, Hunter Morris' name is the first one to pop up.  Why not?  He had a very good year in AA last year and is considered one of, if not the, best offensive prospects for the Brewers.  There is a big issue for Hunter Morris: even with his good year last year, he had a very hard time getting on base.  His Major League equivalent line in 2012 was .258/.297/.459.  A .297 OBP is not good.  He could really benefit from time in AAA ball.  As of right now, he is likely the favorite to start opening day for the Brewers; however, he could benefit from some seasoning in AAA.  Another issue is that Morris has been inconsistent.  In 2011, with the Brevard County Manatees (A+ ball), he had an eq. runs line of 2.425 runs.  His Major League equivalent line was .217/.236/.351, which is equivalent to a .587 OPS, which is unacceptable for any non-pitcher, especially a first baseman.  Like Taylor Green, he only really has one good minor league year and even that year wasn't great (.756 eq. OPS, 4.478 eq. runs).  If 2012 is an indicator that he has improved, he will likely be ready for the 1B job in 2014 (Corey Hart is a free agent after this year); if not, his ceiling is no higher than Taylor Green's.

Sean Halton - The Lower Ceiling Prospect.  When a list of Brewers' prospects is made, the names at the top are mainly pitchers.  You may also see a few hitters up there: Hunter Morris, Clint Coulter, Scooter Gennett, etc.  However, one name that has not come up much is Sean Halton.  Halton is an older prospect (he will be 26 years old this year), but he did put together a few decent years in AA and AAA the last two years.  In 2011, Halton put together a Major League equivalent line of .255/.292/.368 with the Huntsville Stars.  In 2012, Halton put together a Major League equivalent line of .240/.301/.412 with the Nashville Sounds.  Really, that's pretty good.  Unlike the other four candidates above, he has been fairly consistent the last two years (3.518 eq. runs in 2011, 4.086 eq. runs in 2012).  No major flukey year, but no indicator that either of those two years were flukes.  His ceiling is not nearly as high as Hunter Morris, but his floor also seems to be much higher.  If I was the GM, I'd give him a lot of starts in Spring Training and consider him a top option for first base to begin the year.

Khris Davis - The Guy Nobody is Talking About.  Very few people (essentially no non-die hard Brewers fans) are considering Khris Davis for this job.  One reason is that he has not played first base in his career to date.  Instead, he has played corner outfield.  However, as I discussed above, first base is likely the easiest position to play in baseball and Davis very likely could pick it up so that he is only a minor liability in the field.  However, his offense warrants a look this Spring Training.  At the age of 23 with the Brevard County Manatees and the Huntsville Stars, he put together an eq. run statistic of 3.386.  That doesn't sound great, but even a superb year in Brevard County will only equal a marginal year in MLB.  Last year, he played with Huntsville and the Nashville Sounds, and put together a great season.  With the Huntsville Stars, he put together a MLB equivalent line of .320/.388/.514 and with the Nashville Sounds, he put together a MLB equivalent line of .267/.350/.431 line; both are very good.  Overall, he had a MLB equivalent eq. run statistic of 5.973 runs.  Obviously, like everyone else, we need to take caution that this was only one year, even though his previous year wasn't bad.  However, let's put this in perspective; let's look at the MLB equivalent eq. run statistic for Khris Davis in 2012 and compare it to Corey Hart:

                 Eq. Runs, 2012
Corey Hart           5.635
Khris Davis          5.973

Yes, by this stat, Khris Davis beat out Corey Hart in 2012 MLB equivalent eq. runs.  Do I trust that to continue?  Most likely no; like I said above, with minor league players, I can't "de-luck" statistics.  He likely got very lucky in 2012 and had a high BABIP.  Still, he's the guy I would have compete with Taylor Green and Sean Halton for the starting first base job this year.  Beyond that, Mat Gamel was also expected to be the 5th outfielder for the Brewers this year.  Davis should be considered for this role this year.

 Carlos Lee - The Former Brewer.  Carlos Lee played with the Milwaukee Brewers a while back.  He was actually traded away from the Brewers, along with Nelson Cruz (editor's note: Why did you do that Doug Melvin?) for Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero, and Laynce Nix.  He then signed a lucrative long term deal with the Houston Astros, one of the many reasons the Astros are where they are today.  He is now a shell of his former self.  In 2011, with the Houston Astros, he put together an Adjusted (for BABIP) Equivalent Run statistic of 5.171, which is pretty good.  In 2012, it went all the way down to 4.235.  He was 36 years old in 2012; this is what happens with 36 year old players, especially those who don't condition that well.  There is a distinct possibility that he could retire; there is also a possibility that he could be so bad this year that he may be dropped mid-year.  The best that can be expected of Carlos Lee in 2013 is likely a line similar to his 2012 line.  In addition, he would likely cost at least $1-2 million to bring in.  In short, he is not a viable option, especially for a shortened role.

Mike Carp - The DFA First Baseman.  While Carlos Lee is the most well known option, he is probably not the best fit for the Brewers.  He's likely to be more expensive and may not be more than a designated hitter at this point of his career.  Mike Carp, who was recently designated for assignment from the Mariners, is another option.  He actually had a very good season in 2011 at age 25 with the Tacoma Rainiers and Seattle Mariners, putting together a Eq. Run statistic of 5.491.  With Tacoma in 2011, Carp put together a MLB equivalent line of .307/.359/.549 (6.549 eq. runs) and he put together a line of .276/.326/.466 (4.642 eq. runs) with the Mariners.  When combined, that is probably above average for a first baseman.  He struggled mightily in 2012, however, putting a MLB equivalent eq. run against statistic of 3.33 between Seattle and Tacoma.  Still, a 3.33 eq. run statistic is likely to be better than Gonzalez and Crosby, two players who didn't make it to the Majors as a first baseman.   If he can put together a season somewhere in between his 2011 season and his 2012 season, he would be extremely serviceable as a replacement first baseman and as a backup the rest of the year.

Aubrey Huff - The Veteran Option.  Aubrey Huff is probably on his last legs as a Major League player.  He will be 36 years old this year and is no longer near a full time first baseman option.  He has played with the San Francisco Giants each of the past two years and his stats have been somewhat underwhelming, especially for a first baseman.  In 2011, he put together a line of .246/.306/.370, which is good for an eq. run statistic of 3.781.  That is marginal for a first baseman.  In 2012, he put together a line of .192/.326/.282.  However, factored into the eq. run statistic I calculated is the fact his BABIP was extraordinarily well.  When bringing his BABIP up to his 2011 level, his eq. run statistic was 4.587.  That's still not average for a first baseman, but it's better than his 2011 eq. run statistic.  Much like Lee, though, he would cost additional money ($1-$2 million, likely) and that is a deterrent to signing him.  Again, like Lee, it would be foolish to expect anything more than 4.587 as an eq. run statistic in 2013; a 4.000 eq. run statistic should be considered more expected.  It would be somewhere in between his 2011 statistics and 2012 statistics with a downgrade for his age.  It would not be a great idea to sign him.

Based on all of this information, who should the Brewers start at first base to begin the year?  Here is the order of the 9 guys I would go with:

1. Taylor Green - While I feel that options #2 and #3 may be better options, it's not a bad idea to have somebody with some sort of MLB experience at the position.  If Morris, Hunter, or Davis are called up and struggle, it's not a bad idea to have somebody who knows more what to expect to back him up and be ready to play, even if we can only expect 3.5-4.0 eq. runs from him.
2. Khris Davis - The only thing keeping him from being #1 is that he has no Major League experience.  Well, that and the fact that he hasn't played first base before.  Still, his Minor League offensive statistics last year indicate that he would have been one of the better offensive options for the Brewers last year, even better than Corey Hart.
3.  Sean Halton - Again, he would be higher than Green if he had any decent Major League experience.  Since he doesn't, he should have to compete with Khris Davis for the starting job at 1B for the Brewers in 2013.  If Khris Davis reverts to 2011 form or if he proves to be a huge liability at first base in Spring Training (or in April), Halton should be given a good chance to start.
4. Mike Carp - Of all the free agent options, Carp is the best for a few reasons.  First, he is likely to be cheapest.  Second, he has the highest ceiling since he will only be 27 years old in 2013.  Finally, he has had the best season of any of the three free agent options listed in the last two years.
5. Carlos Lee - At this point, we're getting to players I don't really want at all.  He has some power left and his lack of conditioning (or effort in the field) will likely only be a small liability at first.  Still, the money he would be owed is likely in the $1,000,000+ range and he may be so bad defensively now that he should be playing DH for some American League team.
6. Aubrey Huff - Pretty much the same info I mentioned for Carlos Lee.  He's getting up there in years, but he can still hit a bit and would only be a minor defensive liability in the field.  His power is gone, but he has been getting on base a bit better in recent years.
7. Hunter Morris - I just don't think he's ready for the Big Leagues.  Give him another year and he very well may be.  At this point, Halton and Davis are more ready and have more of a track record.
8. Alex Gonzalez - As a utility infielder, he's definitely a plus.  He can still field very well.  But that's not something that should be considered strongly when choosing a starting first baseman.
9. Bobby Crosby - The difference between Alex Gonzalez and Bobby Crosby is that Gonzalez should at least be a Major League utility player this year.  Bobby Crosby has never had offensive stats that were good at first base and will likely be a Minor Leaguer for the vast majority of the year.