2014 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PROJECTIONS:
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST:
(1) Boston Red Sox 97-65
(2) New York Yankees 86-76
(3) Toronto Blue Jays 86-76
(4) Tampa Bay Rays 83-79
(5) Baltimore Orioles 79-83
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
(1) Detroit Tigers 90-72
(2) Cleveland Indians 84-78
(3) Kansas City Royals 75-87
(4) Chicago White Sox 75-87
(5) Minnesota Twins 69-93
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
(1) Oakland Athletics 91-71
(2) Texas Rangers 81-81
(3) Seattle Mariners 79-83
(4) Los Angeles Angels 77-85
(5) Houston Astros 62-100
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST:
(1) Washington Nationals 89-73
(2) Philadelphia Phillies 84-78
(3) Atlanta Braves 83-79
(4) New York Mets 69-93
(5) Miami Marlins 61-101
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL:
(1) St. Louis Cardinals 95-67
(2) Pittsburgh Pirates 87-75
(3) Milwaukee Brewers 82-80
(4) Cincinnati Reds 78-84
(5) Chicago Cubs 65-97
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST:
(1) Los Angeles Dodgers 95-67
(2) Arizona Diamondbacks 87-75
(3) San Francisco Giants 85-77
(4) San Diego Padres 80-82
(5) Colorado Rockies 76-86
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Saturday, June 29, 2013
How Bad is Yuniesky Betancourt?
The baseball season is nearly half over at this point, and the Milwaukee Brewers have been nothing if not disappointing. With a 32-46 record through 78 games, the Brewers are on pace for over 90 losses and are essentially out of any playoff contention. Clearly the pitching staff carries a big piece of the blame for this; without Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, the Brewers' pitching staff lacks any real experience outside of Yovani Gallardo, who has had his own problems this year. However, the Brewers' lineup has shown some success. As I've mentioned before, I have used a combination of OBP and Slug % to create a statistic to estimate (with about a 5% margin of error) the number of runs a team of 9 of that player would create. For example, a team with 9 Carlos Gomezes in the lineup would score approximately 6.693 runs a game. A team with 9 Ryan Brauns would score 6.513 eq. runs and a team with 9 Jean Seguras would score about 6.414 eq. runs. Even beyond that, the rest of the everyday starting lineup has been alright; Aramis Ramirez (5.284 eq. runs), Norichika Aoki (5.042 eq. runs), Jonathan Lucroy (4.736 eq. runs), and Rickie Weeks (4.461 eq. runs) are all above the league average for eq. runs at each position. That leaves one player: Yuniesky Betancourt, who has started more games at first base for the Brewers this year than anyone else. With 7 above average players in the lineup, one would think the Brewers would be on pace for fewer than 90 losses, even with a bad pitching staff. How bad is Yuniesky Betancourt?
As of June 29, 2013, Yuniesky Betancourt is hitting for a .203/.234/.343 line, for a miserable .577 OPS. Even more frightening is his incredibly low .234 OBP. I always harp on this point, but a .234 OBP is exceptionally bad. The Milwaukee Brewers have been a terrible franchise for many years, including a run from 1993 - 2004 where they had no winning seasons and a 100 loss season. According to a report I ran from Baseball-Reference.com, there has been only one player in Milwaukee Brewers' history with over 200 plate appearances and an OBP under .240. Currently, Betancourt has a .234 OBP and 248 plate appearances. Betancourt is on pace for over 500 plate appearances and has an OBP below .240 when no other player in Brewers' history has ever had over 200 plate appearances and an OBP below .240. On top of that, Betancourt is playing a position that is notoriously easy to play: first base. Generally, a batter who plays first base hits better than a batter at any other position.
Am I right to think that Betancourt is spectacularly bad? Is he amongst the worst hitters in the game? To determine this, I put the hitting statistics together for every player listed as a "starter" for each team in Major League Baseball in 2013. This is therefore a list of 265 players (8 players per team in the NL and 9 players per team in the AL). As of right now, a team of nine Yuniesky Betancourts would score about 2.322 eq. runs per game. That is good for 243rd of 255 players, as shown below. Honestly, this is a little better than I expected, but it's still bad. Betancourt is highlighted in yellow since it may be hard to otherwise see where he is on the list.
One thing that pops out is that the majority of the players below him are shortstops and second basemen. That's because those positions are generally a bit tougher to play than first base. First base is often where a team will put their worst fielders. The Brewers put Prince Fielder there. Last year, the Astros and the Marlins put an aging Carlos Lee there. The White Sox put Adam Dunn there. However, in exchange for the bad defense, there should be some good offense. There is only one first baseman below Yuniesky Betancourt on this list: Ike Davis. To make things even more even, I found the average lines put together for each position this year. Here is what they look like:
As you can see, a first baseman is expected to be worth almost 0.6 eq. runs more than a second baseman and about 1.2 eq. runs more than a shortstop. To make everything even, then, I decided to compare each player to the average eq. runs of each position. When doing this, the table below comes up, showing Yuniesky Betancourt is the fifth worst player when compared to the average at his position, in baseball:
He's worth about 2.635 eq. runs less than the average first baseman, and only four players are worse when compared to the average player at their position in the game. David Adams is really only on this list because the Yankees have been bitten by a swarm of injury bugs this year. I understand that Yuniesky Betancourt is on this list because of injuries to both Corey Hart and Mat Gamel, but the Yankees have been even less lucky. Alex Rodriguez is out. Kevin Youkilis started the year as the third baseman, but he's injured. Brennan Boesch, Ben Francisco, Chris Nelson, and Alberto Gonzalez were/are also given chances, so at least the Yankees are trying to find a replacement. The Brewers did also give a half-hearted chance to Martin Maldonado and Alex Gonzalez at first base, but Yuniesky Betancourt was their clear option after May began. They did trade for Juan Francisco, but until a recent power surge by Francisco, Betancourt was still a part time starter. Even now, he's still getting at bats nearly every game.
While Adams has been worse than Betancourt, there is a clear difference between Betancourt and Adams: Betancourt has had 248 plate appearances this year; Adams has had a mere 104. Adams' sample size is still much smaller than Betancourt's, and he could turn his season into an average or at least mediocre season with a few good games. It would take Betancourt a streak over twice as long to have the same results as a hot streak for Adams.
Jimmy Paredes has been on a bad Houston Astros team that still sees him as a semi-prospect. He was considered at least an average prospect a few years ago, but has never seemed to have gotten it going in the Majors. He's still only 24 years old, and with only 92 plate appearances this year (about 1/3 of Yuni's), he could still turn around this season fairly easily. A 3 for 3 game would zoom him past Yuni on this list. Because of the small sample sizes and ages involved, I have a very hard time considering either Jimmy Paredes or David Adams worse than Betancourt.
The other two players below Betancourt on the list are Ike Davis and Danny Espinosa. Both of them had reasonably good years last year, while Betancourt was dropped in the middle of last year. As a matter of fact, here are the lines for each of the three players in each of the past three years, followed by the eq. run statistic for each of the three players over the past three years:
Danny Espinosa .232/.305/.392 3.967 eq. runs
Ike Davis .224/.305/.429 4.321 eq. runs
Yuniesky Betancourt .235/.259/.376 3.028 eq. runs
While Betancourt has fallen fairly significantly this year from his three year average (about 0.7 eq. runs), it pales in comparison to Danny Espinosa (about 2.9 eq. runs) and Ike Davis (about 1.6 eq. runs). I have been a solid defender of Rickie Weeks through his terrible start this year because I knew his past history was solid and that he could become an above average hitting second baseman. I feel the same way about Danny Espinosa and Ike Davis. They have a track record. Yuniesky Betancourt has had a negative WAR (wins above replacement) stat, according to Baseball-Reference, every year since 2008. He has no track record, whatsoever.
Therefore, I believe a reasonable case can be made that Yuniesky Betancourt will be the worst hitter in baseball who can be seen as, at least, a partial starter this year. David Adams and Jimmy Paredes will either turn it around or not be anywhere near Betancourt in plate appearances, and Danny Espinosa and Ike Davis have a solid track record and will turn it around.
Now, this only refers to hitting ability. An argument can be made that although Yuniesky Betancourt is one of the worst hitters in the game (at least amongst the bottom 5), he is even a worse defender. I have made an argument in a prior post that Yuniesky Betancourt, as a shortstop, gave up about 0.8 runs per game more in 2011 than Ozzie Smith did in 1983. Those are two extremes, to be sure. Still, though, the difference between the best hitter in baseball, based on eq. runs (Miguel Cabrera, 10.145 eq. runs) and the worst (Danny Espinosa, 1.090 eq .runs), is about 1 run per game ((10.145 - 1.090) / 9 players per game = 1.006 runs per game more). How does Yuni's defense at first base in 2013 compare to the rest of the league?
As I always say when trying to evaluate defense, there is no easy way to evaluate defense. Major League Baseball does a terrible job when using errors or fielding percentage as a way to evaluate a fielder. If you get to more balls, you'll make more errors. Yuniesky Betancourt's problem isn't errors (he had as many errors at shortstop in 2011 as Ozzie Smith did in 1983); it's getting to a hit baseball. He has no range as a fielder. Therefore, I generally use a statistic called "Range Factor" to determine a fielder's ability. Range factor is essentially Put Outs + Assists; in short, if you're a part of a play that becomes an out, your range factor improves. At first base, this becomes tough to use as well since anytime you catch a ball to record a ground ball out, range factor improves. A lot depends on the ability of your defense. Still though, I'd argue that the Brewers defense has one good fielder (Jean Segura), and two mediocre ones (Aramis Ramirez, Rickie Weeks), so it averages out to being average.
Another factor to consider is how often the pitching staff gives up ground balls. The Brewers give up ground balls at a 0.85 GB / FB rate, whereas Major League Baseball as a whole gives up ground balls at a 0.83 GB / FB. Therefore, more balls likely come Yuni's way than average and the effect of his fielding is more felt than it would be if the team gave up, say, 0.75 GB / FB.
This year, Yuniesky Betancourt has a range factor of 8.72 per nine innings. The league average is 9.20 per nine innings. I'll make this an extremely conservative estimate. I will assume the following things when determining how many runs Betancourt himself has given up on defense. First, I will assume that he will have an average number of balls hit to him. The team has an above average GB / FB rate, and with a struggling pitching staff, they will face more batters than average. I will also assume that every ball that Yuni does not get to is a single. That's definitely not a fair assumption; a ground ball down the line at first often ends up as a double or triple. A single is generally regarded to be worth 0.57 runs. This would indicate that Betancourt is about 0.29 runs worse than average as a defender.
Let's put all of these statistics together now. Starting with offense, Yuniesky Betancourt is worth 2.635 eq. runs per game less than an average first baseman. When divided by 9 (because there are 9 hitters in a lineup), that is about 0.29 runs per game in real numbers. A team with an average first baseman can expect to score 0.29 runs more per game than a team with Yuni at first. A team with an average first baseman can also expect to give up 0.29 runs fewer per game than a team with Yuni at first. Therefore, on a game by game basis, Yuniesky Betancourt is worth -0.58 runs per game. When extrapolated for 162 games, that equates to about 93.96 runs over the course of a season. It is generally assumed that 10 runs is equivalent to a win, so a team with Yuniesky Betancourt at first base can expect to win about 9.4 games fewer than a team with an average first baseman.
He's bad, folks. Really bad. Probably the worst batter in the league and almost certainly the worst player with over 200 plate appearances this year. And he's starting at first base. That's bad.
As of June 29, 2013, Yuniesky Betancourt is hitting for a .203/.234/.343 line, for a miserable .577 OPS. Even more frightening is his incredibly low .234 OBP. I always harp on this point, but a .234 OBP is exceptionally bad. The Milwaukee Brewers have been a terrible franchise for many years, including a run from 1993 - 2004 where they had no winning seasons and a 100 loss season. According to a report I ran from Baseball-Reference.com, there has been only one player in Milwaukee Brewers' history with over 200 plate appearances and an OBP under .240. Currently, Betancourt has a .234 OBP and 248 plate appearances. Betancourt is on pace for over 500 plate appearances and has an OBP below .240 when no other player in Brewers' history has ever had over 200 plate appearances and an OBP below .240. On top of that, Betancourt is playing a position that is notoriously easy to play: first base. Generally, a batter who plays first base hits better than a batter at any other position.
Am I right to think that Betancourt is spectacularly bad? Is he amongst the worst hitters in the game? To determine this, I put the hitting statistics together for every player listed as a "starter" for each team in Major League Baseball in 2013. This is therefore a list of 265 players (8 players per team in the NL and 9 players per team in the AL). As of right now, a team of nine Yuniesky Betancourts would score about 2.322 eq. runs per game. That is good for 243rd of 255 players, as shown below. Honestly, this is a little better than I expected, but it's still bad. Betancourt is highlighted in yellow since it may be hard to otherwise see where he is on the list.
One thing that pops out is that the majority of the players below him are shortstops and second basemen. That's because those positions are generally a bit tougher to play than first base. First base is often where a team will put their worst fielders. The Brewers put Prince Fielder there. Last year, the Astros and the Marlins put an aging Carlos Lee there. The White Sox put Adam Dunn there. However, in exchange for the bad defense, there should be some good offense. There is only one first baseman below Yuniesky Betancourt on this list: Ike Davis. To make things even more even, I found the average lines put together for each position this year. Here is what they look like:
As you can see, a first baseman is expected to be worth almost 0.6 eq. runs more than a second baseman and about 1.2 eq. runs more than a shortstop. To make everything even, then, I decided to compare each player to the average eq. runs of each position. When doing this, the table below comes up, showing Yuniesky Betancourt is the fifth worst player when compared to the average at his position, in baseball:
He's worth about 2.635 eq. runs less than the average first baseman, and only four players are worse when compared to the average player at their position in the game. David Adams is really only on this list because the Yankees have been bitten by a swarm of injury bugs this year. I understand that Yuniesky Betancourt is on this list because of injuries to both Corey Hart and Mat Gamel, but the Yankees have been even less lucky. Alex Rodriguez is out. Kevin Youkilis started the year as the third baseman, but he's injured. Brennan Boesch, Ben Francisco, Chris Nelson, and Alberto Gonzalez were/are also given chances, so at least the Yankees are trying to find a replacement. The Brewers did also give a half-hearted chance to Martin Maldonado and Alex Gonzalez at first base, but Yuniesky Betancourt was their clear option after May began. They did trade for Juan Francisco, but until a recent power surge by Francisco, Betancourt was still a part time starter. Even now, he's still getting at bats nearly every game.
While Adams has been worse than Betancourt, there is a clear difference between Betancourt and Adams: Betancourt has had 248 plate appearances this year; Adams has had a mere 104. Adams' sample size is still much smaller than Betancourt's, and he could turn his season into an average or at least mediocre season with a few good games. It would take Betancourt a streak over twice as long to have the same results as a hot streak for Adams.
Jimmy Paredes has been on a bad Houston Astros team that still sees him as a semi-prospect. He was considered at least an average prospect a few years ago, but has never seemed to have gotten it going in the Majors. He's still only 24 years old, and with only 92 plate appearances this year (about 1/3 of Yuni's), he could still turn around this season fairly easily. A 3 for 3 game would zoom him past Yuni on this list. Because of the small sample sizes and ages involved, I have a very hard time considering either Jimmy Paredes or David Adams worse than Betancourt.
The other two players below Betancourt on the list are Ike Davis and Danny Espinosa. Both of them had reasonably good years last year, while Betancourt was dropped in the middle of last year. As a matter of fact, here are the lines for each of the three players in each of the past three years, followed by the eq. run statistic for each of the three players over the past three years:
Danny Espinosa .232/.305/.392 3.967 eq. runs
Ike Davis .224/.305/.429 4.321 eq. runs
Yuniesky Betancourt .235/.259/.376 3.028 eq. runs
While Betancourt has fallen fairly significantly this year from his three year average (about 0.7 eq. runs), it pales in comparison to Danny Espinosa (about 2.9 eq. runs) and Ike Davis (about 1.6 eq. runs). I have been a solid defender of Rickie Weeks through his terrible start this year because I knew his past history was solid and that he could become an above average hitting second baseman. I feel the same way about Danny Espinosa and Ike Davis. They have a track record. Yuniesky Betancourt has had a negative WAR (wins above replacement) stat, according to Baseball-Reference, every year since 2008. He has no track record, whatsoever.
Therefore, I believe a reasonable case can be made that Yuniesky Betancourt will be the worst hitter in baseball who can be seen as, at least, a partial starter this year. David Adams and Jimmy Paredes will either turn it around or not be anywhere near Betancourt in plate appearances, and Danny Espinosa and Ike Davis have a solid track record and will turn it around.
Now, this only refers to hitting ability. An argument can be made that although Yuniesky Betancourt is one of the worst hitters in the game (at least amongst the bottom 5), he is even a worse defender. I have made an argument in a prior post that Yuniesky Betancourt, as a shortstop, gave up about 0.8 runs per game more in 2011 than Ozzie Smith did in 1983. Those are two extremes, to be sure. Still, though, the difference between the best hitter in baseball, based on eq. runs (Miguel Cabrera, 10.145 eq. runs) and the worst (Danny Espinosa, 1.090 eq .runs), is about 1 run per game ((10.145 - 1.090) / 9 players per game = 1.006 runs per game more). How does Yuni's defense at first base in 2013 compare to the rest of the league?
As I always say when trying to evaluate defense, there is no easy way to evaluate defense. Major League Baseball does a terrible job when using errors or fielding percentage as a way to evaluate a fielder. If you get to more balls, you'll make more errors. Yuniesky Betancourt's problem isn't errors (he had as many errors at shortstop in 2011 as Ozzie Smith did in 1983); it's getting to a hit baseball. He has no range as a fielder. Therefore, I generally use a statistic called "Range Factor" to determine a fielder's ability. Range factor is essentially Put Outs + Assists; in short, if you're a part of a play that becomes an out, your range factor improves. At first base, this becomes tough to use as well since anytime you catch a ball to record a ground ball out, range factor improves. A lot depends on the ability of your defense. Still though, I'd argue that the Brewers defense has one good fielder (Jean Segura), and two mediocre ones (Aramis Ramirez, Rickie Weeks), so it averages out to being average.
Another factor to consider is how often the pitching staff gives up ground balls. The Brewers give up ground balls at a 0.85 GB / FB rate, whereas Major League Baseball as a whole gives up ground balls at a 0.83 GB / FB. Therefore, more balls likely come Yuni's way than average and the effect of his fielding is more felt than it would be if the team gave up, say, 0.75 GB / FB.
This year, Yuniesky Betancourt has a range factor of 8.72 per nine innings. The league average is 9.20 per nine innings. I'll make this an extremely conservative estimate. I will assume the following things when determining how many runs Betancourt himself has given up on defense. First, I will assume that he will have an average number of balls hit to him. The team has an above average GB / FB rate, and with a struggling pitching staff, they will face more batters than average. I will also assume that every ball that Yuni does not get to is a single. That's definitely not a fair assumption; a ground ball down the line at first often ends up as a double or triple. A single is generally regarded to be worth 0.57 runs. This would indicate that Betancourt is about 0.29 runs worse than average as a defender.
Let's put all of these statistics together now. Starting with offense, Yuniesky Betancourt is worth 2.635 eq. runs per game less than an average first baseman. When divided by 9 (because there are 9 hitters in a lineup), that is about 0.29 runs per game in real numbers. A team with an average first baseman can expect to score 0.29 runs more per game than a team with Yuni at first. A team with an average first baseman can also expect to give up 0.29 runs fewer per game than a team with Yuni at first. Therefore, on a game by game basis, Yuniesky Betancourt is worth -0.58 runs per game. When extrapolated for 162 games, that equates to about 93.96 runs over the course of a season. It is generally assumed that 10 runs is equivalent to a win, so a team with Yuniesky Betancourt at first base can expect to win about 9.4 games fewer than a team with an average first baseman.
He's bad, folks. Really bad. Probably the worst batter in the league and almost certainly the worst player with over 200 plate appearances this year. And he's starting at first base. That's bad.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
2013 MLB Projections - 1st in the League
This is a continuing series of posts containing projections for the 2013 Major League Baseball season. I have gone through every team except for the teams projected to finish at the top of each league. These teams are not only projected to make the playoffs, but they are expected to finish with the best records in the league and clinch home field advantage in the divisional series. Simply put, these teams are expected to be the best in baseball in 2013.
1. Detroit Tigers
Last year, the Detroit Tigers won their way to the World Series as was expected by a lot of prognosticators. Quite frankly, they had a lineup with real fire power and a pitching staff containing a lot of above average pitchers and one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, they started rather slowly and had to have a great second half of the season to clinch a spot in the playoffs. The Tigers will bring back most of their lineup and rotation, and are expected to repeat as American League Central champions. In addition, they are projected to find their way atop the league standings.
Without a doubt, the star for the Detroit Tigers last year was third baseman Miguel Cabrera. He won American League MVP last year by becoming the first player to win the Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Last year, he put together an out of the world line of .330/.393/.606, good for 7.836 eq. runs. He is a top flight contact hitter and power hitter, and is expected to remain the top player in the Tigers' lineup. His weakness is that he is not great at third base, but his offense more than makes up for that. He is expected to only regress to 7.734 eq. runs in 2013, showing that he has a chance, albeit a somewhat outside one, of winning back to back triple crowns. On top of Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have another top flight hitter in first baseman Prince Fielder. Last year, Fielder put together a line of .313/.412/.528. He is able to hit for a ton of power, but his OBP is even better than Cabrera's. That kind of line is good for 7.333 eq. runs, which would be by far the best for most teams in baseball. He is expected to regress slightly in 2013 to 6.940 eq. runs, but that still makes him an elite hitter. Like Cabrera, Fielder's real weakness is at defense. However, the offensive production of Fielder and Cabrera more than makes up for the sub-par fielding abilities of these two players. No team in baseball would turn down this one-two punch in the middle of the lineup.
The Tigers' lineup clearly revolves around Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. However, they weren't the only 6+ eq. run players for the Tigers last year. The Tigers had two outfielders also hit for over 6 eq. runs in 2013. In left field, the Tigers will return Andy Dirks. Dirks put together a .322/.370/.487 line last year, good for 6.092 eq. runs. He has significant power, but his real asset is his ability to get on base. While his OBP was not quite as good as Cabrera's or Fielder's, a .370 OBP is nothing to sneeze at. It's well above average and it would fit well at the top of the Tigers' order. He is expected to regress a bit to 5.380 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still a very good number for a supporting player in the lineup. The Tigers will also return center fielder Austin Jackson to the top of the order. He put together a line of .300/.377/.479 last year, showing that like Dirks, he has significant power. However, he is exceptional at getting on base. The fact that the Tigers have four players in their starting lineup with an OBP of .370 last year shows how exceptional their lineup is. He was worth 6.142 eq. runs last year, and is expected to regress a bit to 5.552 eq. runs. That still makes him a well above hitter, especially at a defensive specialty position like center field. He will be a key cog in this starting lineup.
The Tigers will also add two players to the lineup that were not in the lineup last year. At designated hitter, the Tigers will return former catcher Victor Martinez, who was out all of 2012 with a major injury. However, in 2011, he was exceptional with a .330/.380/.470 line, good for 6.107 eq. runs. As with any player coming off a huge injury, Martinez may not ever be the same player. His BABIP indicates a regression to 5.509 eq. runs in 2013, but it could potentially be worse if there are lingering effects from his injury. If not, Martinez remains a significant member of this lineup who will support the other stars in this lineup by getting on base a lot. The Tigers also brought in a right fielder via free agency, Torii Hunter. With the Angels last year, Hunter hit for a .313/.365/.451 line. We have yet another player with a well above average OBP in this lineup, and like the rest of the players with that kind of contact hitting skills in this lineup, he can still hit for power. He was worth 5.631 eq. runs last year, but he did that with an exceptionally high BABIP. That shows he got very lucky in 2012, and he is likely to see big regression in 2013. He is expected to be worth 4.462 eq. runs in 2013, making him an average right fielder at this point in his career. With this kind of lineup, though, an average hitter will not hurt. He will definitely be a supporting member of this lineup.
The rest of the Tigers' lineup will be filled with solid bats. At catcher, the Tigers will return Alex Avila. Last year, he put together a line of .243/.352/.384. Despite a low batting average, Avila has a very good ability to get on base. His power leaves a lot to be desired, but he was still worth 4.743 eq. runs in 2012. He is expected to improve, albeit just a tiny amount, to 4.774 eq. runs in 2013. At a defensive premium position like catcher, Avila is above average and a real plus to this lineup. He is not a star, but he is somebody who will help this lineup. The Tigers will also return second baseman Omar Infante, whom the Tigers acquired last year from the Miami Marlins. Last year, he put together a line of .274/.300/.419, showing he has decent power but a low OBP. He was worth 4.136 eq. runs in 2012, and is expected to improve slightly to 4.257 eq. runs in 2013. Infante is a middle infielder making him a player at a defensive specialty position. While a .300 OBP isn't ideal, it's acceptable as Infante can hit for some power and he does play second base. Finishing up the Tigers' lineup is shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Peralta was once a decent hitting shortstop with some power, but it didn't show much last year as he hit for a .239/.305/.384 line. That is good for 3.892 eq. runs. At a defensive premium position like shortstop, a 3.892 eq. run statistic is acceptable, though not ideal. In addition, this Tigers lineup is full of excellent hitters, so Peralta is essentially a supporting player at the bottom of the lineup. Perhaps he can find some power or get on base at a better rate; he is expected to improve to a 4.258 eq. run player.
One potential weak spot for this team is their bench, which is not deep and does not contain players who could play on an everyday basis. It contains catcher Brayan Pena, infielder Ramon Santiago, utility player Danny Worth, and outfielder Quintin Berry. Santiago is likely the player on the bench who will get the most time, as he will back up Infante and Peralta on the infield. Last year, he put together a line of .206/.283/.272, which is only good for 2.548 eq. runs. He provides value as a defensive player, but as an everyday player, he would hurt any lineup he'd be in. An OBP below .300 is unacceptable, and on top of that, he has extremely little power. As a late inning defensive replacement for Peralta or Cabrera, he'd be fine. As an everyday player, he would bring this lineup down a bit. The Tigers will also return young outfielder Quintin Berry. Last year, he put together a line of .258/.330/.354, which makes him the best hitting player on the bench. That line is good for 4.067 eq. runs, but that is expected to go down to 3.580 eq. runs in 2013. As a fourth outfielder, Berry is fine. However, if there was an injury to an outfielder, the Tigers would probably look elsewhere for a long term replacement.
While the Tigers have an extremely powerful lineup, their pitching staff may be even more valuable. Their ace is Justin Verlander, who won the Cy Young Award in 2011 and competed for it in 2012. He is known as a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 25% of the batters he faced last year. He is also a very good contact pitcher, as he only walked 6.3% of the batters he faced last year and he is an average contact pitcher as he gives up 0.74 ground balls per fly ball. Those numbers all combine for an eq. run against statistic of 3.48 eq. runs per nine innings, which is to be expected of an ace. Verlander will remain one of the top pitchers in the game. However, he doesn't have the lowest eq. runs against statistic on the Tigers in 2013. That would belong to Doug Fister, another strong strikeout pitcher. He struck out 20.4% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 5.5%. However, he is also a well above average contact pitcher, giving up 1.10 ground balls for every fly ball. In all, Fister can be expected to give up 3.22 runs per nine innings. On most teams, he would be the ace of the staff and an argument could be made that he is the ace of this staff. However, with the success Verlander has had in recent years, it is very hard to argue that Verlander is not the ace of this staff. The Tigers will also return an even better strikeout pitcher, Max Scherzer. Last year, Scherzer had a 29.4% strikeout ratio, which is even higher than Verlander's and Fister's. For a starting pitcher, that strikeout rate is sensational. On top of that, Scherzer did not walk that many batters, as he only walked about 7.6% of the batters he faced. He is a below average contact pitcher, as shown by his 0.59 GB / FB ratio, but overall, Scherzer is another pitcher who could be an ace on many teams. He is expected to give up 3.61 runs per nine innings, which is the eq. runs against statistic of a top of the rotation starter.
However, the excellence of the Tigers' pitching staff does not end there. In the offseason, the Tigers resigned free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez, whom they acquired along with Omar Infante in a mid-season trade with the Marlins last season. He is fairly similar to Fister in his stats, as he struck out 20.4% of the batters he faced and walked only 5.9% of the batters he faced. However, he is only slightly above average when it comes to contact pitching, as he gave up 0.89 ground balls for every fly ball last year. In all, Sanchez is expected to give up 3.57 runs per nine innings, making him a solid top of the rotation starter on most teams. The Tigers will also return Rick Porcello, though there are rumors that he could be traded. He is not a great strikeout pitcher, as he only struck out about 13.7% of the batters he faced last year. However, he also only walked 5.6% of the batters faced last year and as a contact pitcher, Porcello is very good. He gave up about 1.16 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is expected to give up 3.71 runs per nine innings. That makes him a solid top of the rotation pitcher, though he will be the fifth starter in this rotation. Overall, the Tigers have one of the best rotations in the game at this point.
However, the Tigers may struggle in the bullpen. There is no clear cut closer on this team. The front runner is Bruce Rondon, a rookie. Rondon has some potential, but after updating his minor league stats to Major League level, Rondon simply isn't expected to be good this year. It's always difficult to project minor league players, but Rondon is expected to strike out about 23.2% of the batters he faces while walking 15.4%. That would make him an average strikeout pitcher and a well below average control pitcher. He is expected to give up 1.15 ground balls per fly ball, but even as a good contact pitcher, he is expected to give up 5.31 runs per nine innings. If that comes to fruition, he will not be the closer for long. Another option is veteran Joaquin Benoit. Benoit is a good strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 29.2% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average control pitcher, as he gave up walks in 7.6% of the opposing plate appearances last year. He is below average as a contact pitcher, giving up only 0.56 ground balls per fly ball last year, but this still makes him a pitcher who is expected to give up 3.66 runs per nine innings. That is significantly better than Rondon, but most teams would prefer a better closer than that. Another option is Phil Coke. Coke is not as good of a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 20.8% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average control pitcher, as he walked 7.4% of the batters he faced. He did pitch well as a control pitcher, though, as he got 0.93 ground balls per fly ball last year. Overall, Coke is expected to give up 3.84 runs per nine innings. Again, most teams would prefer more from the closer position, but given the position Detroit is in right now, Coke might not be a bad option. However, overall, Detroit's bullpen is below average.
The Tigers have an extremely powerful lineup anchored by superstar hitters Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. On top of that, they also have solid supporting players like Andy Dirks, Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante, and Torii Hunter, making this offense the best in the Majors. They also have a great rotation consisting of five potential top of the rotation starters in Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Porcello. They are expected to also have the best pitching staff in the American League. Their bullpen and bench are fairly weak, but those are fairly minor issues for a team of this caliber. They are expected to finish first in the weak American League Central with a 99-63 record.
1. St. Louis Cardinals
I'm not particularly happy about it, but the St. Louis Cardinals are projected to be the best team in the National League in 2013. They have a solid all-around lineup and a good pitching staff, putting them above all of the other teams in the National League. Last year was supposed to be a relative down year as the Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Angels and Chris Carpenter to injury. Neither of those players are back in 2013, but their replacements showed last year that they could compete at a very high level even without those two stars.
The most important to the St. Louis Cardinals is likely catcher Yadier Molina. Molina is a defense first catcher, but as a hitter, he is well above average as well. Last year, he hit for a .315/.373/.501 line, showing significant contact and power hitting abilities. For a defense first player at the biggest defense premium position in the game, Molina put together a spectacular season at 6.296 eq. runs. That makes him an elite hitter along as an elite defender. In reality, he is one of the most valuable players in the game, and is expected to continue as one in 2013, as he is expected to be worth 5.946 eq. runs in 2013. The Cardinals' overall best hitter, though, is left fielder Matt Holliday. Holliday is a very similar to player to Molina, as seen by his .295/.379/.497 line last year. He is well above average as both a contact and a power hitter, and provides a huge spark in the middle of the Cardinals' lineup. Last year, he was another elite hitter, as shown by his 6.367 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only to 6.176 eq. runs in 2013. His defense isn't as valuable as Molina's, but his bat would be welcome in any lineup in the Major Leagues. Holliday and Molina made up for the loss of production from Albert Pujols last year and will continue to be stars in this lineup.
However, Molina and Holliday are not the only top flight hitters in this lineup. The Cardinals found some offense from less expected sources last year. For example, some people thought right fielder Carlos Beltran was past his prime and was only going to go down hill. However, he put together a solid line of .269/.346/.495 last year, showing he is a good contact hitter, but also has significant power left. His power is right in line with Molina's and Holliday's, though his contact hitting skills weren't as good last year. Beltran was worth 5.729 eq. runs last year, and his BABIP was actually lower than expected. He is expected to improve to 5.876 eq. runs in 2013. Another unexpected source of power in this lineup came from the new first baseman, Allen Craig. Craig is a versatile player, but he hit like an elite hitter last year. His line was .307/.354/522 last year, which shows he might even have the best power on this team. While he isn't quite as good as Albert Pujols was with the Cardinals, Craig was pretty much the best the Cardinals could hope for in a replacement. He was worth 6.163 eq. runs last year with the bat. He is expected to regress slightly to 5.957 eq. runs in 2013 after signing a huge contract with the Cardinals in the offseason. Craig is one of the better young hitters in the game, and will remain a huge piece in this Cardinals lineup.
The Cardinals' lineup remains strong as we get to the middle tier players. 2011 playoff star, third baseman David Freese is expected to start the year on the injured list, but still play everyday for the Cardinals for the vast majority of the year. Freese isn't known as a star player, but he hit for a .293/.372/.467 line last year, making him another significant piece of this lineup. He was worth 5.925 eq. runs in 2012, making him a well above average hitter. He is expected to regress somewhat to 5.523 eq. runs in 2013, but he still remains a well above average third baseman in the league. His good OBP skills could play well at the top of the lineup, but his power makes him a better middle of the lineup hitter. The Cardinals will also return speedy center fielder Jon Jay. Last year, Jay put together a solid line of .305/.359/.414. He is an above average contact hitter and an average power hitter, and he put together a 5.156 eq. run season last year. He did that with an above average BABIP, however, and he is expected to regress, but only slightly to 4.734 eq. runs in 2013. As a supporting player in the lineup, especially at a defensive premium position, Jay fits the role well. His high OBP would fit very well at the top of the lineup. As star players in a lineup, Freese and Jay would not be great. As supporting players in the lineup, they are pluses.
The rest of the Cardinals' lineup will consist of the middle infielders. Their starting second baseman is expected to be light hitting Daniel Descalso. A light hitter in this lineup is not a terribly big deal because of all of the big bats, but the Cardinals are hoping he can put together a better line than the .227/.303/.324 he put together last year. He is well below average as a contact hitter and has virtually no power, as shown by his 3.323 eq. run statistic last year. As a bottom of the lineup hitter and defensive specialist, Descalso won't kill a lineup. However, he won't add much either. The starting shortstop was supposed to be Rafael Furcal, but an injury will bench him for the entire year. Replacing him is young Pete Kozma, who put together a spectacular line after being brought up the Major League level last year. His line seemed rather flukey at .303/.373/.506, as he has never been a great hitter in the minor leagues. He was worth 6.348 eq. runs last year, and that is unlikely to last. There are a few players who seem to just get it at the Major League level even if they can't at the minor league level; the more likely scenario is that he is a more marginal everyday player than anything. Based on BABIP alone, he is expected to be worth 5.529 eq. runs this year, but if last year was a fluke, he will likely fall even further. He still seems to be a Major League player, though, and will provide value somehow for this team. It's just that they didn't expect him to be the everyday shortstop to begin the year.
The Cardinals will also have an intriguing bench to start the year, made up of catcher Tony Cruz, first baseman Matt Adams, infielders Matt Carpenter and Ty Wigginton, and outfielder Shane Robinson. Matt Adams is one of the team's better prospects, and it showed as he put together a Major League equivalent line of .290/.319/.522 last year. He has a below average OBP, but his power is significant and will be valuable to this team. Even with a good first baseman in Allen Craig to begin the year, the Cardinals think he is valuable enough to contribute significantly to this team. He will likely be a starter before long, with Allen Craig moving to the outfield. Matt Carpenter turned out to be a pleasant surprise last year, as he put together a .294/.365/.463 line. That was good for 5.752 eq. runs, and he will get a lot of playing time. That kind of line does not play on the bench, though he is expected to regress to 5.368 eq. runs in 2013. It's too bad that he doesn't play shortstop or second base particularly well; if he did, he would be an everyday player on this team. He will likely be the top batter off the bench in a pinch hitting situation. The Cardinals also decided to bring in a good bat in Ty Wigginton. Wigginton isn't the player he once was, as shown by his .235/.314/.375 line last year. He showed below average contact and power hitting skills last year, but he is still capable of getting a few big hits. He was worth about 3.699 eq. runs last year, and is expected to improve, albeit slightly, to 4.197 eq. runs in 2013. It would really be hard to find a better bench in the Majors than the Cardinals' have, though most of the players (Adams, Carpenter, Wigginton) are not defensive premium players.
The Cardinals have a very good lineup, but they will also return a solid rotation. The ace of the staff will be Adam Wainwright, who just signed a lucrative long term deal with the Cardinals. He is a very good pitcher, and above average in all three of the peripheral statistics. He struck out 22.1% of the batters he faced last year, walked 6.3% of the batters he faced last year, and got 1.04 ground balls per fly ball last year. Overall, that is good for approximately 3.34 eq. runs per nine innings in 2013. That makes him an ace and a solid fixture at the top of the rotation. However, he's not the only top of the rotation type starter returning to the Cardinals' rotation. They will also return Jaime Garcia, who struggled a bit with injuries last year. He isn't quite as good of a strikeout pitcher, striking out only 19% of the batters he faced last year. However, he also only walked 5.8% of the batters he faced last year, and as a contact pitcher he is excellent. He got 1.21 ground balls for every fly ball last year, an excellent ratio. He is expected to give up 3.27 runs per nine innings, which would make him a top of the rotation starter on this team and an ace on many teams. They will also return Jake Westbrook. Westbrook is definitely not a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 14.1% of the batters he faced last year. He is a decent control pitcher, though not great given how few batters he struck out last year. He walked 6.9% of the batters he faced last year. His real strength is as a contact pitcher, though, as he got 1.39 ground balls per fly ball last year. Because of that, he is a solid middle of the rotation starter and give up 3.70 runs per nine innings.
The Cardinals will also return the bottom two pitchers in the rotation. They will return former all star Lance Lynn, a strong strikeout pitcher. He struck out 24.2% of the batters he faced last year, an extremely high number. However, he does also walk quite a few, as he walked 8.6% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average contact pitcher, as he gave up 0.81 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is a decent and probably slightly above average middle of the rotation pitcher, as he is expected to give up 4.00 eq. runs per nine innings last year. The Cardinals will have a hole in the rotation due to the fact that Kyle Lohse left the Cardinals via free agency and Chris Carpenter is out for the year. The expected fifth starter will then be Joe Kelly. Kelly isn't a spectacular strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 16.4% of the batters he faced last year. He isn't a spectacular control pitcher either, as he walked 7.9% of the batters he faced last year; his ratio isn't that great. However, he makes up for a lot of it as a contact pitcher, where he gets 1.09 ground balls for every fly ball. He is expected to give up 4.12 runs per nine innings, making him a slightly below average middle of the rotation starter and above average bottom of the rotation starter. In all, the Cardinals have a decent rotation, though it is top-heavy. They have two potential aces, two good middle of the rotation pitchers, and one good bottom of the rotation pitcher on this team.
The Cardinals also have a good bullpen. It is led by closer Jason Motte, a fireballing closer. He is a great strikeout pitcher, striking out 30.8% of the batters he faced last year. His value is also helped as he is a good control pitcher, walking out only 6.1% of the batters he faced last year. As a contact pitcher, he is slightly below average, only getting 0.69 ground balls per fly ball last year. However, he is expected to give up 3.02 runs per nine innings, making him a solid, above average closer. He provides a lot of value for the Cardinals. The setup man, Mitchell Boggs, is also a solid pitcher, though not at the level of Motte. Boggs struck out a below average amount as a reliever last year, 19.6% of the batters he faced. He also walked a moderate number of batters last year, approximately 7.1% of the batters he faced. His real asset as a pitcher is as a contact pitcher, where he gets 1.14 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.61 runs per nine innings. That would be below average for a closer, but as a setup pitcher, he is a good pitcher. The Cardinals will also return young reliever Trevor Rosenthal to the bullpen. he is a very good strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 28.1% of the batters he faced last year. As a control pitcher, he is okay, as he walked 7.9% of the batters he faced. However, like seemingly all of the Cardinals, he is a very good contact pitcher, getting 1.14 ground balls per fly ball last year. He will be a very important piece to the end of the Cardinals' bullpen this year. It will be hard to come back against the Cardinals with this end of the bullpen.
The Cardinals have a very good lineup with many top hitters, including Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, David Freese, and Carlos Beltran. They will also return a good rotation with top pitchers including Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. Their rotation is strong, but it isn't elite like the Tigers'. However, they make up for a lot of it with a very good bench and bullpen. The Cardinals are expected to succeed very well this year, finishing first in the National League Central with a 96-66 record.
Last year, the Detroit Tigers won their way to the World Series as was expected by a lot of prognosticators. Quite frankly, they had a lineup with real fire power and a pitching staff containing a lot of above average pitchers and one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, they started rather slowly and had to have a great second half of the season to clinch a spot in the playoffs. The Tigers will bring back most of their lineup and rotation, and are expected to repeat as American League Central champions. In addition, they are projected to find their way atop the league standings.
Without a doubt, the star for the Detroit Tigers last year was third baseman Miguel Cabrera. He won American League MVP last year by becoming the first player to win the Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Last year, he put together an out of the world line of .330/.393/.606, good for 7.836 eq. runs. He is a top flight contact hitter and power hitter, and is expected to remain the top player in the Tigers' lineup. His weakness is that he is not great at third base, but his offense more than makes up for that. He is expected to only regress to 7.734 eq. runs in 2013, showing that he has a chance, albeit a somewhat outside one, of winning back to back triple crowns. On top of Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have another top flight hitter in first baseman Prince Fielder. Last year, Fielder put together a line of .313/.412/.528. He is able to hit for a ton of power, but his OBP is even better than Cabrera's. That kind of line is good for 7.333 eq. runs, which would be by far the best for most teams in baseball. He is expected to regress slightly in 2013 to 6.940 eq. runs, but that still makes him an elite hitter. Like Cabrera, Fielder's real weakness is at defense. However, the offensive production of Fielder and Cabrera more than makes up for the sub-par fielding abilities of these two players. No team in baseball would turn down this one-two punch in the middle of the lineup.
The Tigers' lineup clearly revolves around Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. However, they weren't the only 6+ eq. run players for the Tigers last year. The Tigers had two outfielders also hit for over 6 eq. runs in 2013. In left field, the Tigers will return Andy Dirks. Dirks put together a .322/.370/.487 line last year, good for 6.092 eq. runs. He has significant power, but his real asset is his ability to get on base. While his OBP was not quite as good as Cabrera's or Fielder's, a .370 OBP is nothing to sneeze at. It's well above average and it would fit well at the top of the Tigers' order. He is expected to regress a bit to 5.380 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still a very good number for a supporting player in the lineup. The Tigers will also return center fielder Austin Jackson to the top of the order. He put together a line of .300/.377/.479 last year, showing that like Dirks, he has significant power. However, he is exceptional at getting on base. The fact that the Tigers have four players in their starting lineup with an OBP of .370 last year shows how exceptional their lineup is. He was worth 6.142 eq. runs last year, and is expected to regress a bit to 5.552 eq. runs. That still makes him a well above hitter, especially at a defensive specialty position like center field. He will be a key cog in this starting lineup.
The Tigers will also add two players to the lineup that were not in the lineup last year. At designated hitter, the Tigers will return former catcher Victor Martinez, who was out all of 2012 with a major injury. However, in 2011, he was exceptional with a .330/.380/.470 line, good for 6.107 eq. runs. As with any player coming off a huge injury, Martinez may not ever be the same player. His BABIP indicates a regression to 5.509 eq. runs in 2013, but it could potentially be worse if there are lingering effects from his injury. If not, Martinez remains a significant member of this lineup who will support the other stars in this lineup by getting on base a lot. The Tigers also brought in a right fielder via free agency, Torii Hunter. With the Angels last year, Hunter hit for a .313/.365/.451 line. We have yet another player with a well above average OBP in this lineup, and like the rest of the players with that kind of contact hitting skills in this lineup, he can still hit for power. He was worth 5.631 eq. runs last year, but he did that with an exceptionally high BABIP. That shows he got very lucky in 2012, and he is likely to see big regression in 2013. He is expected to be worth 4.462 eq. runs in 2013, making him an average right fielder at this point in his career. With this kind of lineup, though, an average hitter will not hurt. He will definitely be a supporting member of this lineup.
The rest of the Tigers' lineup will be filled with solid bats. At catcher, the Tigers will return Alex Avila. Last year, he put together a line of .243/.352/.384. Despite a low batting average, Avila has a very good ability to get on base. His power leaves a lot to be desired, but he was still worth 4.743 eq. runs in 2012. He is expected to improve, albeit just a tiny amount, to 4.774 eq. runs in 2013. At a defensive premium position like catcher, Avila is above average and a real plus to this lineup. He is not a star, but he is somebody who will help this lineup. The Tigers will also return second baseman Omar Infante, whom the Tigers acquired last year from the Miami Marlins. Last year, he put together a line of .274/.300/.419, showing he has decent power but a low OBP. He was worth 4.136 eq. runs in 2012, and is expected to improve slightly to 4.257 eq. runs in 2013. Infante is a middle infielder making him a player at a defensive specialty position. While a .300 OBP isn't ideal, it's acceptable as Infante can hit for some power and he does play second base. Finishing up the Tigers' lineup is shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Peralta was once a decent hitting shortstop with some power, but it didn't show much last year as he hit for a .239/.305/.384 line. That is good for 3.892 eq. runs. At a defensive premium position like shortstop, a 3.892 eq. run statistic is acceptable, though not ideal. In addition, this Tigers lineup is full of excellent hitters, so Peralta is essentially a supporting player at the bottom of the lineup. Perhaps he can find some power or get on base at a better rate; he is expected to improve to a 4.258 eq. run player.
One potential weak spot for this team is their bench, which is not deep and does not contain players who could play on an everyday basis. It contains catcher Brayan Pena, infielder Ramon Santiago, utility player Danny Worth, and outfielder Quintin Berry. Santiago is likely the player on the bench who will get the most time, as he will back up Infante and Peralta on the infield. Last year, he put together a line of .206/.283/.272, which is only good for 2.548 eq. runs. He provides value as a defensive player, but as an everyday player, he would hurt any lineup he'd be in. An OBP below .300 is unacceptable, and on top of that, he has extremely little power. As a late inning defensive replacement for Peralta or Cabrera, he'd be fine. As an everyday player, he would bring this lineup down a bit. The Tigers will also return young outfielder Quintin Berry. Last year, he put together a line of .258/.330/.354, which makes him the best hitting player on the bench. That line is good for 4.067 eq. runs, but that is expected to go down to 3.580 eq. runs in 2013. As a fourth outfielder, Berry is fine. However, if there was an injury to an outfielder, the Tigers would probably look elsewhere for a long term replacement.
While the Tigers have an extremely powerful lineup, their pitching staff may be even more valuable. Their ace is Justin Verlander, who won the Cy Young Award in 2011 and competed for it in 2012. He is known as a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 25% of the batters he faced last year. He is also a very good contact pitcher, as he only walked 6.3% of the batters he faced last year and he is an average contact pitcher as he gives up 0.74 ground balls per fly ball. Those numbers all combine for an eq. run against statistic of 3.48 eq. runs per nine innings, which is to be expected of an ace. Verlander will remain one of the top pitchers in the game. However, he doesn't have the lowest eq. runs against statistic on the Tigers in 2013. That would belong to Doug Fister, another strong strikeout pitcher. He struck out 20.4% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 5.5%. However, he is also a well above average contact pitcher, giving up 1.10 ground balls for every fly ball. In all, Fister can be expected to give up 3.22 runs per nine innings. On most teams, he would be the ace of the staff and an argument could be made that he is the ace of this staff. However, with the success Verlander has had in recent years, it is very hard to argue that Verlander is not the ace of this staff. The Tigers will also return an even better strikeout pitcher, Max Scherzer. Last year, Scherzer had a 29.4% strikeout ratio, which is even higher than Verlander's and Fister's. For a starting pitcher, that strikeout rate is sensational. On top of that, Scherzer did not walk that many batters, as he only walked about 7.6% of the batters he faced. He is a below average contact pitcher, as shown by his 0.59 GB / FB ratio, but overall, Scherzer is another pitcher who could be an ace on many teams. He is expected to give up 3.61 runs per nine innings, which is the eq. runs against statistic of a top of the rotation starter.
However, the excellence of the Tigers' pitching staff does not end there. In the offseason, the Tigers resigned free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez, whom they acquired along with Omar Infante in a mid-season trade with the Marlins last season. He is fairly similar to Fister in his stats, as he struck out 20.4% of the batters he faced and walked only 5.9% of the batters he faced. However, he is only slightly above average when it comes to contact pitching, as he gave up 0.89 ground balls for every fly ball last year. In all, Sanchez is expected to give up 3.57 runs per nine innings, making him a solid top of the rotation starter on most teams. The Tigers will also return Rick Porcello, though there are rumors that he could be traded. He is not a great strikeout pitcher, as he only struck out about 13.7% of the batters he faced last year. However, he also only walked 5.6% of the batters faced last year and as a contact pitcher, Porcello is very good. He gave up about 1.16 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is expected to give up 3.71 runs per nine innings. That makes him a solid top of the rotation pitcher, though he will be the fifth starter in this rotation. Overall, the Tigers have one of the best rotations in the game at this point.
However, the Tigers may struggle in the bullpen. There is no clear cut closer on this team. The front runner is Bruce Rondon, a rookie. Rondon has some potential, but after updating his minor league stats to Major League level, Rondon simply isn't expected to be good this year. It's always difficult to project minor league players, but Rondon is expected to strike out about 23.2% of the batters he faces while walking 15.4%. That would make him an average strikeout pitcher and a well below average control pitcher. He is expected to give up 1.15 ground balls per fly ball, but even as a good contact pitcher, he is expected to give up 5.31 runs per nine innings. If that comes to fruition, he will not be the closer for long. Another option is veteran Joaquin Benoit. Benoit is a good strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 29.2% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average control pitcher, as he gave up walks in 7.6% of the opposing plate appearances last year. He is below average as a contact pitcher, giving up only 0.56 ground balls per fly ball last year, but this still makes him a pitcher who is expected to give up 3.66 runs per nine innings. That is significantly better than Rondon, but most teams would prefer a better closer than that. Another option is Phil Coke. Coke is not as good of a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 20.8% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average control pitcher, as he walked 7.4% of the batters he faced. He did pitch well as a control pitcher, though, as he got 0.93 ground balls per fly ball last year. Overall, Coke is expected to give up 3.84 runs per nine innings. Again, most teams would prefer more from the closer position, but given the position Detroit is in right now, Coke might not be a bad option. However, overall, Detroit's bullpen is below average.
The Tigers have an extremely powerful lineup anchored by superstar hitters Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. On top of that, they also have solid supporting players like Andy Dirks, Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante, and Torii Hunter, making this offense the best in the Majors. They also have a great rotation consisting of five potential top of the rotation starters in Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Porcello. They are expected to also have the best pitching staff in the American League. Their bullpen and bench are fairly weak, but those are fairly minor issues for a team of this caliber. They are expected to finish first in the weak American League Central with a 99-63 record.
I'm not particularly happy about it, but the St. Louis Cardinals are projected to be the best team in the National League in 2013. They have a solid all-around lineup and a good pitching staff, putting them above all of the other teams in the National League. Last year was supposed to be a relative down year as the Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Angels and Chris Carpenter to injury. Neither of those players are back in 2013, but their replacements showed last year that they could compete at a very high level even without those two stars.
The most important to the St. Louis Cardinals is likely catcher Yadier Molina. Molina is a defense first catcher, but as a hitter, he is well above average as well. Last year, he hit for a .315/.373/.501 line, showing significant contact and power hitting abilities. For a defense first player at the biggest defense premium position in the game, Molina put together a spectacular season at 6.296 eq. runs. That makes him an elite hitter along as an elite defender. In reality, he is one of the most valuable players in the game, and is expected to continue as one in 2013, as he is expected to be worth 5.946 eq. runs in 2013. The Cardinals' overall best hitter, though, is left fielder Matt Holliday. Holliday is a very similar to player to Molina, as seen by his .295/.379/.497 line last year. He is well above average as both a contact and a power hitter, and provides a huge spark in the middle of the Cardinals' lineup. Last year, he was another elite hitter, as shown by his 6.367 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only to 6.176 eq. runs in 2013. His defense isn't as valuable as Molina's, but his bat would be welcome in any lineup in the Major Leagues. Holliday and Molina made up for the loss of production from Albert Pujols last year and will continue to be stars in this lineup.
However, Molina and Holliday are not the only top flight hitters in this lineup. The Cardinals found some offense from less expected sources last year. For example, some people thought right fielder Carlos Beltran was past his prime and was only going to go down hill. However, he put together a solid line of .269/.346/.495 last year, showing he is a good contact hitter, but also has significant power left. His power is right in line with Molina's and Holliday's, though his contact hitting skills weren't as good last year. Beltran was worth 5.729 eq. runs last year, and his BABIP was actually lower than expected. He is expected to improve to 5.876 eq. runs in 2013. Another unexpected source of power in this lineup came from the new first baseman, Allen Craig. Craig is a versatile player, but he hit like an elite hitter last year. His line was .307/.354/522 last year, which shows he might even have the best power on this team. While he isn't quite as good as Albert Pujols was with the Cardinals, Craig was pretty much the best the Cardinals could hope for in a replacement. He was worth 6.163 eq. runs last year with the bat. He is expected to regress slightly to 5.957 eq. runs in 2013 after signing a huge contract with the Cardinals in the offseason. Craig is one of the better young hitters in the game, and will remain a huge piece in this Cardinals lineup.
The Cardinals' lineup remains strong as we get to the middle tier players. 2011 playoff star, third baseman David Freese is expected to start the year on the injured list, but still play everyday for the Cardinals for the vast majority of the year. Freese isn't known as a star player, but he hit for a .293/.372/.467 line last year, making him another significant piece of this lineup. He was worth 5.925 eq. runs in 2012, making him a well above average hitter. He is expected to regress somewhat to 5.523 eq. runs in 2013, but he still remains a well above average third baseman in the league. His good OBP skills could play well at the top of the lineup, but his power makes him a better middle of the lineup hitter. The Cardinals will also return speedy center fielder Jon Jay. Last year, Jay put together a solid line of .305/.359/.414. He is an above average contact hitter and an average power hitter, and he put together a 5.156 eq. run season last year. He did that with an above average BABIP, however, and he is expected to regress, but only slightly to 4.734 eq. runs in 2013. As a supporting player in the lineup, especially at a defensive premium position, Jay fits the role well. His high OBP would fit very well at the top of the lineup. As star players in a lineup, Freese and Jay would not be great. As supporting players in the lineup, they are pluses.
The rest of the Cardinals' lineup will consist of the middle infielders. Their starting second baseman is expected to be light hitting Daniel Descalso. A light hitter in this lineup is not a terribly big deal because of all of the big bats, but the Cardinals are hoping he can put together a better line than the .227/.303/.324 he put together last year. He is well below average as a contact hitter and has virtually no power, as shown by his 3.323 eq. run statistic last year. As a bottom of the lineup hitter and defensive specialist, Descalso won't kill a lineup. However, he won't add much either. The starting shortstop was supposed to be Rafael Furcal, but an injury will bench him for the entire year. Replacing him is young Pete Kozma, who put together a spectacular line after being brought up the Major League level last year. His line seemed rather flukey at .303/.373/.506, as he has never been a great hitter in the minor leagues. He was worth 6.348 eq. runs last year, and that is unlikely to last. There are a few players who seem to just get it at the Major League level even if they can't at the minor league level; the more likely scenario is that he is a more marginal everyday player than anything. Based on BABIP alone, he is expected to be worth 5.529 eq. runs this year, but if last year was a fluke, he will likely fall even further. He still seems to be a Major League player, though, and will provide value somehow for this team. It's just that they didn't expect him to be the everyday shortstop to begin the year.
The Cardinals will also have an intriguing bench to start the year, made up of catcher Tony Cruz, first baseman Matt Adams, infielders Matt Carpenter and Ty Wigginton, and outfielder Shane Robinson. Matt Adams is one of the team's better prospects, and it showed as he put together a Major League equivalent line of .290/.319/.522 last year. He has a below average OBP, but his power is significant and will be valuable to this team. Even with a good first baseman in Allen Craig to begin the year, the Cardinals think he is valuable enough to contribute significantly to this team. He will likely be a starter before long, with Allen Craig moving to the outfield. Matt Carpenter turned out to be a pleasant surprise last year, as he put together a .294/.365/.463 line. That was good for 5.752 eq. runs, and he will get a lot of playing time. That kind of line does not play on the bench, though he is expected to regress to 5.368 eq. runs in 2013. It's too bad that he doesn't play shortstop or second base particularly well; if he did, he would be an everyday player on this team. He will likely be the top batter off the bench in a pinch hitting situation. The Cardinals also decided to bring in a good bat in Ty Wigginton. Wigginton isn't the player he once was, as shown by his .235/.314/.375 line last year. He showed below average contact and power hitting skills last year, but he is still capable of getting a few big hits. He was worth about 3.699 eq. runs last year, and is expected to improve, albeit slightly, to 4.197 eq. runs in 2013. It would really be hard to find a better bench in the Majors than the Cardinals' have, though most of the players (Adams, Carpenter, Wigginton) are not defensive premium players.
The Cardinals have a very good lineup, but they will also return a solid rotation. The ace of the staff will be Adam Wainwright, who just signed a lucrative long term deal with the Cardinals. He is a very good pitcher, and above average in all three of the peripheral statistics. He struck out 22.1% of the batters he faced last year, walked 6.3% of the batters he faced last year, and got 1.04 ground balls per fly ball last year. Overall, that is good for approximately 3.34 eq. runs per nine innings in 2013. That makes him an ace and a solid fixture at the top of the rotation. However, he's not the only top of the rotation type starter returning to the Cardinals' rotation. They will also return Jaime Garcia, who struggled a bit with injuries last year. He isn't quite as good of a strikeout pitcher, striking out only 19% of the batters he faced last year. However, he also only walked 5.8% of the batters he faced last year, and as a contact pitcher he is excellent. He got 1.21 ground balls for every fly ball last year, an excellent ratio. He is expected to give up 3.27 runs per nine innings, which would make him a top of the rotation starter on this team and an ace on many teams. They will also return Jake Westbrook. Westbrook is definitely not a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 14.1% of the batters he faced last year. He is a decent control pitcher, though not great given how few batters he struck out last year. He walked 6.9% of the batters he faced last year. His real strength is as a contact pitcher, though, as he got 1.39 ground balls per fly ball last year. Because of that, he is a solid middle of the rotation starter and give up 3.70 runs per nine innings.
The Cardinals will also return the bottom two pitchers in the rotation. They will return former all star Lance Lynn, a strong strikeout pitcher. He struck out 24.2% of the batters he faced last year, an extremely high number. However, he does also walk quite a few, as he walked 8.6% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average contact pitcher, as he gave up 0.81 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is a decent and probably slightly above average middle of the rotation pitcher, as he is expected to give up 4.00 eq. runs per nine innings last year. The Cardinals will have a hole in the rotation due to the fact that Kyle Lohse left the Cardinals via free agency and Chris Carpenter is out for the year. The expected fifth starter will then be Joe Kelly. Kelly isn't a spectacular strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 16.4% of the batters he faced last year. He isn't a spectacular control pitcher either, as he walked 7.9% of the batters he faced last year; his ratio isn't that great. However, he makes up for a lot of it as a contact pitcher, where he gets 1.09 ground balls for every fly ball. He is expected to give up 4.12 runs per nine innings, making him a slightly below average middle of the rotation starter and above average bottom of the rotation starter. In all, the Cardinals have a decent rotation, though it is top-heavy. They have two potential aces, two good middle of the rotation pitchers, and one good bottom of the rotation pitcher on this team.
The Cardinals also have a good bullpen. It is led by closer Jason Motte, a fireballing closer. He is a great strikeout pitcher, striking out 30.8% of the batters he faced last year. His value is also helped as he is a good control pitcher, walking out only 6.1% of the batters he faced last year. As a contact pitcher, he is slightly below average, only getting 0.69 ground balls per fly ball last year. However, he is expected to give up 3.02 runs per nine innings, making him a solid, above average closer. He provides a lot of value for the Cardinals. The setup man, Mitchell Boggs, is also a solid pitcher, though not at the level of Motte. Boggs struck out a below average amount as a reliever last year, 19.6% of the batters he faced. He also walked a moderate number of batters last year, approximately 7.1% of the batters he faced. His real asset as a pitcher is as a contact pitcher, where he gets 1.14 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.61 runs per nine innings. That would be below average for a closer, but as a setup pitcher, he is a good pitcher. The Cardinals will also return young reliever Trevor Rosenthal to the bullpen. he is a very good strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 28.1% of the batters he faced last year. As a control pitcher, he is okay, as he walked 7.9% of the batters he faced. However, like seemingly all of the Cardinals, he is a very good contact pitcher, getting 1.14 ground balls per fly ball last year. He will be a very important piece to the end of the Cardinals' bullpen this year. It will be hard to come back against the Cardinals with this end of the bullpen.
The Cardinals have a very good lineup with many top hitters, including Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, David Freese, and Carlos Beltran. They will also return a good rotation with top pitchers including Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. Their rotation is strong, but it isn't elite like the Tigers'. However, they make up for a lot of it with a very good bench and bullpen. The Cardinals are expected to succeed very well this year, finishing first in the National League Central with a 96-66 record.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
2013 MLB Projections - 2nd in the League
This is a continuing series of posts containing projections for the 2013 Major League Baseball season. I started from the worst teams in baseball and am now into the elite few at the top of the divisions. We are not even talking about wildcards anymore; the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, and Reds already have that role. We are now talking about the top division winners in each league. Who is the cream of the crop in each league? Here are the projections for the second best teams in each league.
2. New York Yankees
For the past 15 or so years, the New York Yankees have been the best team money can buy by spending loads of money on top players. Players with names like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, and Mariano Rivera have been mainstays for the Yankees while being some of the top paid players at their positions on baseball. They have had an unfair advantage by being able to outspend every team in baseball and have only a few teams approach their spending. The result has been multiple World Series titles, multiple division titles, and a playoff run almost every year. However, there are a lot of predictions for a down year for the Yankees due to significant injuries. Much of their lineup is expected to start the year on the injured list. Will this keep the Yankees out of the playoffs in 2013?
The offensive star for the Yankees is second baseman Robinson Cano. Cano is an exceptional hitter at a defensive premium position. As a matter of fact, he is one of the top hitters in the game as shown by his .313/.379/.550 line last year. He is very good at getting on base, but the real asset he provides is his power. Last year, he provided 6.937 eq. runs for the Yankees and he is only expected to regress to 6.800 eq. runs in 2013. That makes him one of the top elite hitters in the game, and as a second baseman, he is perhaps the most valuable hitter in the game. On top of that for the Yankees, he is one of their few stars who will not start the year on the injured list. The more well-known player in the middle of the Yankees' infield is shortstop Derek Jeter. Jeter has been the face of the Yankees' franchise since the mid-1990s. Once one of the top hitters in the game, Jeter is still fairly good. His power is not great, but it's still good and his OBP makes him a prime top of the order candidate. Last year, he put together a line of .316/.362/.429, good for 5.358 eq. runs. He is expected to regress to about 5.037 eq. runs in 2013. That precludes him from being elite, but as a shortstop, he is extremely valuable if he can continue to put together 5+ eq. run seasons. It is uncertain if he can, as he is getting older and he is starting the year on the injured list.
The Yankees also have some other offensive stars, though they will start on the injured list. Mark Teixeira will return and play first base at some point this season. While he has been generally disappointing with the Yankees, that has been because Teixeira has been an elite hitter over most of his career. His line is still very good at .251/.332/.475 last year, good for 5.265 eq. runs, which is still a very good number. As a first baseman, Teixeira is still above average and he is expected to improve significantly to 5.805 eq. runs. He will provide plenty of power and some contact skills to the middle of the Yankees lineup upon his return. In center field, the Yankees will return Curtis Granderson at some point this season. Like Jeter and Teixeira, Granderson will start the year on the injured list. He had a relatively disappointing year for him last year with a .232/.319/.492 line. He has significant power, though his OBP was well below his average last year. In 2011, Granderson was 4th in MVP voting, so last year was a bit of a disappointment at 5.207 eq. runs. He is expected to improve to about 5.863 eq. runs. As a top of the order hitter, Granderson might struggle. His power is much better placed in the middle of the order. In addition, as a center fielder, Granderson is at a defensive premium position. He provides a ton of value to this lineup.
The Yankees made a splash in the middle of the year last year trading for long-time Mariner outfielder Ichiro Suzuki. Once the premier contact hitter in the game getting over 200 hits per season every season, he has fallen considerably in recent years. However, he seemed to have a bit of a revival with the Yankees last year playing meaningful baseball for the first time in a long while. Last year, he hit for a .283/.307/.390 line, good for 3.984 eq. runs. However, that number was much lower with Seattle than it was with the Yankees. Still, Ichiro is on the downward slope of his career and has very little power. He will have to rely significantly on his ability to get on base, and a .307 OBP will not cut it. He is expected to be worth 3.984 eq. runs again in 2013. The Yankees will also return outfielder Brett Gardner to their lineup. With Granderson injured, Gardner will likely start the year as the center fielder. When Granderson comes back, Gardner will likely play left field. He put together a line of .262/.349/.370, good for 4.559 eq. runs. He has very little power, but his high OBP would make him a prime lead-off candidate, and he is expected to lead off for the Yankees this year. He likely won't bat much with players on base, but his ability to get on base will be important so the power hitters can bring him in. He is expected to continue to be worth 4.559 eq. runs in 2013.
The Yankees did bring in a few free agents in the offseason, but neither are superstars. They are more role players. At third base, replacing injured Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees signed former Red Sox and White Sox infielder Kevin Youkilis. He was once one of the top hitters in the game, but he has fallen considerably after a few injuries. Last year, he put together a line of .235/.336/.409, showing he is essentially an average hitter at this point in his career. He was worth 4.684 eq. runs last year, and he is expected to improve to 5.059 eq. runs in 2013. That's not a bad line for a starting third baseman, and can add value as a supporting hitter in the lineup. The Yankees also brought in former Cleveland Indian Travis Hafner to be the designated hitter. Last year, Hafner put together a line of .228/.346/.438, showing he has a good ability to get on base and hit for some power. He was worth 5.149 eq. runs last year, but his BABIP (.233) was exceptionally low last year. When adjusting his eq. run statistic for BABIP, it increases the eq. runs to 6.517, which would make him an elite hitter in baseball. I don't really trust that he will be that good, but he will be better than 5.149 eq. runs. The last member of the Yankees' lineup will be catcher Chris Stewart. Stewart is clearly the weakpoint of the lineup, as shown by his .241/.292/.319 line. He was worth about 3.088 eq. runs last year, and that puts him way at the bottom of the lineup. He is expected to only improve to about 3.115 eq. runs. He has to replace Russell Martin, who was far from being an elite hitting catcher, but was a reasonable starter. Stewart will have to watch his back and hit better if he wants to keep the starting job.
It is hard to put together a list of players on the bench knowing that it will change significantly as the year goes on due to injuries. Therefore, instead of saying bench players, I will call this group players that are expected to get bench-type playing time. It will consist of catcher Francisco Cervelli, infielders Eduardo Nunez and Alex Rodriguez, and outfielder Vernon Wells. Cervelli will give Stewart a good run for his money at the catcher position. He is dealing with a PED scandal right now, but he put together a solid .264/.326/.392 line last year. He has some power and some on-base abilities, making him a good candidate to usurp the starting catcher job at some point in the year. Last year, he was worth about 4.342 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only slightly, to 4.173 eq. runs. He would be an average catcher if he started, and he should get that opportunity at some point this year. Alex Rodriguez is dealing with an injury that could potentially keep him out all year. If he wasn't injured, he would not be on the bench and would be starting over Youkilis. Like Cervelli, he is also involved in a PED scandal, and he and Ryan Braun seem to be targets of the Major League Baseballinvestigation witch hunt. Last year, he put together a line of .272/.353/.430, worth 5.200 eq. runs. He is expected to regress slightly to 5.003 eq. runs. At this point, he is really no more than an extremely overpaid average third baseman. He's alright, but he's not anywhere near elite. The Yankees, dealing with all of these injuries, seemed to panic and traded for another overpriced player, Vernon Wells. I actually wrote about him in depth in the Angels' write-up, but at this point of his career, Wells doesn't provide much value. He put together a .230/.279/.403 line last year, worth 3.618 eq. runs. While he is expected to improve, it is only to 4.470 eq. runs. He and Alex Rodriguez are likely the two most overpaid players in baseball.
For a long time, the Yankees had an elite lineup, but their pitching staff was holding them back. Now, their lineup will be struggling with injuries for much of the year, and their pitching staff will keep them from falling. The ace of the staff will remain CC Sabathia, who remains one of the top pitchers in the game. He struck out about 23.7% of the batters he faced last year, while only walking 5.3%. On top of that, he is an above average contact pitcher, giving up 0.98 ground balls for every fly ball. Based on all of this, he is expected to give up 3.06 runs per nine innings, an extremely low amount. He is not only an ace on this team, but he is one of the top aces in the game. The Yankees will also return Hiroki Kuroda as the second pitcher in the rotation. He isn't a great strikeout pitcher like Sabathia, as he walked 18.7% of the batters he faced. However, he only walked 5.7% and had an even better GB / FB ratio at 1.11. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.39 runs per nine innings. For most teams, this would be good to be the top pitcher in the staff, but the Yankees have the luxury of being able to put him in the middle relief role. That is a huge plus. The Yankees will also return twice retired veteran Andy Pettitte. When Andy Pettitte came back for his third time, it was unsure how he would do. He was getting up there in years and got caught with PEDs in his system. However, he has thrived since coming back. Last year, he struck out 22.8% of the batters he faced while walking only 6.9%. On top of that, he is a very good contact pitcher, getting 1.24 ground balls for every fly ball. His age may eventually catch up to him, but at this point, he is expected to give up 3.19 runs per nine innings. Again, for most teams, he'd be an ace. With the Yankees, he's a middle of the rotation starter.
The rest of the Yankees' rotation will be made up of younger pitchers. For a while, Phil Hughes was considered a top prospect for the Yankees. He disappointed for the first few years of his career, but he has come along and become a solid middle of the rotation starter. He strikes out his fair share at 20.3%, and only walked about 5.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he is weak as a contact pitcher, only getting about 0.48 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, Hughes is expected to give up 4.01 runs per nine innings, and that could improve if he can get more ground balls. The Yankees will also return Ivan Nova. Nova's strikeout rate is like Hughes' at 20.5%. He does walk a few more batters at 7.5% last year, but he makes up for that by having average contact pitching statistics, getting 0.84 ground balls per fly ball. In all reality, he is expected to give up essentially the same number of runs per nine innings as Hughes, at 4.00 eq. runs. As bottom of the rotation starters, Hughes and Nova are excellent. Their statistics would put them closer to middle-of-the-rotation status, but as #4 and #5 pitchers, Hughes and Nova provide huge value.
One of the biggest and most surprising injuries in Major League Baseball last year happened to closer Mariano Rivera when he got injured shagging balls during batting practice. For the last 15 or so years, Rivera has been the best closer in the game, and he hasn't seemed to slow down. He could fall significantly due to age or injury, but Rivera is expected to be a top reliever in the game in his final year. He struck out 25.7% of the batters he faced in the last two years and only walked 3.8%. He is also an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground ball per fly ball last year. He is expected to give up 2.67 runs per nine innings, which is very good for any pitcher, including a closer. The Yankees will also return setup man David Robertson. Robertson is actually a better strikeout pitcher than Rivera, getting a strikeout in 32.7% against the batters he faced last year. However, he walks a bit more, at a 7.7% rate. That is still a very good ratio, but compared to Rivera, it's a bit of a step down. He is expected to give up 3.10 runs per nine innings, which would be good to close for most teams. The Yankees have a good closing option in house after Rivera retires at the end of the year. The Yankees will also return Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. He is less of a strikeout pitcher than Rivera and Robertson, getting a strikeout in only about 23.2% of the opposing plate appearances. However, he has a good walk rate at 5.3% and is an average contact pitcher, getting about 0.88 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he's still a solid reliever, as he is expected to give up about 3.45 runs per nine innings. As a reliever, Chamberlain has had good success and could provide another late inning option for the Yankees.
The Yankees may struggle to begin the year due to the large number of injuries, but I don't expect them to struggle that mightily. They still have a decent lineup consisting of Robinson Cano, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, and Ichiro Suzuki to begin the year, and their rotation is now elite. They have three potential aces and two potential middle rotation starters in the rotation at this point. In addition, they have a top flight bullpen. They are expected to have the third best pitching in the American League based on runs given up, and that will be good to keep the Yankees atop the competitive American League East. The Yankees are expected to win the American League East with a 95-67 record.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks.
I will start out this part of the article by saying that I have no connection to the Arizona Diamondbacks. I certainly don't have anything against them, but they are not my favorite team, and there was no way that I would expect the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the National League West over the World Series Champions San Francisco Giants and the big spending Los Angeles Dodgers. However, my projections show that they will win the National League West and be a top team in the National League. They have a solid all-around lineup and a very good rotation. They don't have any players that would qualify as elite, but they seem to be very good all around.
The closest player the Diamondbacks have to an elite player is their second baseman, Aaron Hill. In the past, Hill was seen more as a nice player to have in a lineup than someone to build an offense around. However, he put together a great line of .302/.360/.522 last year, good for 6.275 eq. runs. Anytime a hitter hits for over 6 eq. runs, it was a very successful season and a sign of a player who you can build a lineup around. He has significant power and a good ability to get on base. While not elite in either of these categories, he is well above average in each of these categories. In addition, he plays a defensive premium position at second base. He is expected to regress to 5.847 eq. runs in 2013, but that would still be a very good year. The Diamondbacks will also return first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to their lineup. While he is not seen as a top first baseman throughout baseball, he has been very good the last two years. Last year, he put together a line of .286/.359/.490, showing he can hit for some power and surprisingly good contact. Last year, he was good for 5.917 eq. runs. Unlike Hill, he plays at an offensive heavy position, making his value slightly less than Hill's. However, Goldschmidt has quietly become one of the more solid hitters in the game. He is expected to regress to about 5.623 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still very good, even at first base. Hill and Goldschmidt aren't elite hitters, but they would add value to any lineup.
The Diamondbacks will also return two other very good hitters. The expected starting left fielder for the Diamondbacks will be Jason Kubel. The former Twin put together a line of .253/.327/.506 last year, showing his real asset at the plate is power. As a contact hitter, he is average or even slightly below average. He was worth 5.498 eq. runs in 2012, which, again, is not elite, but still has lots of value. He does play at an offense heavy position, but he will still add value. He is expected to improve slightly to 5.557 eq. runs in 2013. As a middle of the lineup hitter, Kubel would be very good. The Diamondbacks will also return catcher Miguel Montero to the lineup. Montero is a player known most for his power at the plate. However, his line of .286/.391/.438 last year shows that his real top asset is his ability to get on base. He would be a great leadoff hitter for the Diamondbacks. Last year, he fell just short of 6 eq. runs with 5.996 eq. runs. He is expected to regress a bit to 5.268 eq. runs. He is still not only a very good hitter, but one who does so while playing at the most defensive position in the game. Montero is a huge asset to this Diamondbacks' team, and could be even better as a leadoff hitter.
The Diamondbacks also brought in two new players in the offseason. The expected starting third baseman for the Diamondbacks will be former Atlanta Brave Martin Prado, whom the Diamondbacks acquired in the trade that sent Justin Upton to Atlanta. Prado is a very versatile player, but he is also an underrated hitter. Last year, he hit for a .301/.359/.438 line. He is above average as both a contact hitter and decent as a power hitter, and he actually hit for more eq. runs than Upton last year, who hit for 5.237 eq. runs last year. Prado hit for 5.390 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only slightly to 5.281 eq. runs in 2013. He is a very welcome addition to this lineup. Another welcome addition to the lineup after the trade of Justin Upton is new right fielder Cody Ross. Acquired via free agency, Ross put together a decent line of .267/.326/.481 last year. That gives him 5.218 eq. runs, which is again a solid amount, even for an offensive heavy position like right fielder. Ross has some speed, but his biggest asset at the plate is his power. As a contact hitter, he is only average; as a power hitter, he is above average. He would be best played in the middle of a lineup. He is projected to regress slightly to 4.983 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still above average, even in right field.
One of the more exciting parts of the Diamondbacks' lineup is their high level prospect center fielder Adam Eaton. Eaton will be expected to bat near the top of the order with a .259/.382/.412 line last year. He didn't show that much power in his limited time with Arizona last year, but his OBP was quite high. It was actually high enough to give him 5.571 eq. runs. He is a prospect and can be expected to get better as time goes on; however, even if he wasn't, he'd be expected to improve (albeit slightly) to 5.589 eq. runs. As with any rookie, Eaton could be the next Mike Trout or the next Jeff Clement. He is expected to be a solid rookie in the running for Rookie of the Year, but it's just impossible to tell how a player will react to playing every day in a Major League lineup. Really, though, he is expected to be above average. One player who is expected to be well below average offensively is shortstop Cliff Pennington, who was only able to put together a line of .215/.278/.311 last year. The Diamondbacks' lineup is very good and likely able to withstand a weak bat like Pennington's, but they would like to see him play better to maintain a starting job. Last year, he was only worth 2.779 eq. runs, which is pitifully low. He has low power and very little ability to get on base, but he is expected to improve slightly to 3.272 eq. runs in 2013. Pennington isn't an ideal player to have wrap up this lineup, but the lineup consists of seven other above average players. They can withstand a Cliff Pennington.
The Diamondbacks are expected to bring in a balanced bench with a few very good offensive players and a few very good defensive catchers. It is expected to consist of catcher Wil Nieves, infielders Eric Chavez, Eric Hinske, and Willie Bloomquist, and outfielder Gerardo Parra. Eric Chavez is coming off a solid year with the Yankees where he hit .281/.348/.496. He still has a lot of power and a good ability to get on base, and he is a top bench hitter with a 5.776 eq. run statistic last year. He is pretty much limited to third base, and with Martin Prado there, he probably won't be an everyday starter without an injury. However, an injury in the corner outfield or at second base could move Prado off of third base and Chavez would slip into the role at third base. Willie Bloomquist has gotten a lot of time in the middle infield in recent years due to an injury to former shortstop Stephen Drew. He has been okay at the plate, as shown by his .302/.325/.398 line last year. He could give Pennington a run for his money at shortstop, though both his contact and power hitting skills are below average. He was worth 4.380 eq. runs last year, and is expected to regress to 3.812 eq. runs in 2013. That's good for a utility infielder, but below average for a starter. Parra was once a starting outfielder for the Diamondbacks, but he has been squeezed out of that role. He is a Gold Glove winner, and can hit for some power and contact. Last year, he put together a .273/.335/.392 line, which was good for 4.505 eq. runs. That won't compete with Kubel, Eaton, or Ross, but as a fourth outfielder, he is an excellent option. He is not a player that the Diamondbacks would have to worry about if he needed to get a lot of starts.
The Arizona Diamondbacks quietly have one of the better lineups in baseball. They also quietly have one of the better rotations in baseball. The ace of the staff is Ian Kennedy, a 21 game winner two years ago. He slowed down a bit last year, but still is able to strike out batters at a very good rate (20.8%) while avoiding walking them (6.1%). He is a below average contact pitcher, getting 0.60 ground balls per fly ball, and that all means that he is expected to be worth 3.94 eq. runs in 2013. For an ace of the staff, this is rather high, but it's still not terrible. 2012 was a down year for him, and if he can pitch more like he did in 2011, his eq. run against statistic will fall dramatically. The Diamondbacks will also return Trevor Cahill to the rotation. Cahill is not the strikeout or control pitcher Kennedy is, as shown by his 18.6% strikeout rate and his 8.8% walk rate. However, he is able ot more than make up for it with an exceptional ability to pitch to contact. Last year, he gave up 1.59 ground balls for every fly ball. That brings his expected eq. runs against statistic to fall all the way to 3.55. That would be good to be the ace of the staff, but it certainly puts him at the top of the rotation. If he is able to improve on control or power pitching, he could become a true ace. The Diamondbacks will also return the player who finished second place in the Rookie of the Year voting for the National League last year, Wade Miley. Miley is a control first pitcher with a decent ability to strike batters out, as shown by his 17.8% strike out rate and his 4.6% walk rate. That is a great ratio and shows he didn't get overly lucky with his rookie season. He is also an average contact pitcher, getting 0.77 ground balls per fly ball. This all makes him a 3.62 eq. run player. Miley could become the top pitcher in the Diamondbacks' rotation if he improves his strikeout rate or groundball/fly ball ratio. Between him, Kennedy, and Cahill, the Diamondbacks have three top of the rotation pitchers.
The Diamondbacks also made one of the smarter moves in the offseason, signing former Oakland Athletics pitcher Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy is definitely not a strikeout ratio, striking out only 15.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he offset that by walking only 5.1%. He is a slightly below average contact pitcher, getting only 0.69 ground balls per nine innings. He is a good innings eater and is expected to give up 4.01 runs per nine innings. This makes him a perfectly acceptable and potentially above average middle of the rotation pitcher. The Diamondbacks have another young pitcher with a lot of ability at the bottom of the expected rotation in Pat Corbin. In limited time last year, Corbin showed he was an above average strikeout (18.9%) and walk (5.5%) pitcher. In addition, he is an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.82 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.68 runs per nine innings, making him a well above average middle of the rotation starter and an acceptable top of the rotation starter. In all, the Diamondbacks have three or four top of the rotation starters and one or two middle of the rotation starters. Again, they have nothing flashy, but they are solid in the rotation.
They are also solid in the bullpen. The closer is expected to be J.J. Putz. Putz is a well above average strikeout pitcher, striking out 29.8% of the batters he faced last year. In addition, he is a well above average control pitcher, walking only 5.1% of the batters he faced last year. To make things even better, he is a slightly above average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground balls for every fly ball last year. He is expected to give up about 2.69 runs per nine innings in 2013, making him an elite closer in the game. However, he is not the only well above average pitcher in the bullpen. The setup man in this bullpen is expected to be David Hernandez. Hernandez strikes out batters at an even higher rate, 35.3% last year, but gave up a few more walks because of it. He walked 7.9% of the batters he faced last year. In addition, he is very below average as a contact pitcher, giving up only 0.44 ground balls per fly ball. However, his extremely high strikeout total and his good walk total make him a 3.39 eq. run pitcher. He would be a contender to close on most teams, but as a setup man for the Diamondbacks, he provides a lot of value for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks also acquired former Miami Marlin closer Heath Bell to pitch late in games. Bell was very bad last year, but his peripherals show he wasn't as bad as his more used stats (5.09 ERA). He struck out 20.6% of the batters he faced last year while walking 10.10%. He walks way too many to be an effective closer, but if he can find his control again, he could provide a lot of value to the Diamondbacks. He is also a slightly above average contact pitcher, getting 0.90 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is expected to give up 4.53 runs per nine innings. That's not a closer, but it's also not as bad as his 2012 season with the Marlins.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are not expected to do much by many prognosticators. However, despite the lack of star power in their lineup and rotation, they are solid all around. They are expected to have seven players in their starting lineup with 4.9 eq. runs or more and they are expected to have a rotation with no pitchers expected to give up more than 4.01 runs per nine innings. That is solid. Solid enough to win the National League West with a 91-71 record.
For the past 15 or so years, the New York Yankees have been the best team money can buy by spending loads of money on top players. Players with names like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, and Mariano Rivera have been mainstays for the Yankees while being some of the top paid players at their positions on baseball. They have had an unfair advantage by being able to outspend every team in baseball and have only a few teams approach their spending. The result has been multiple World Series titles, multiple division titles, and a playoff run almost every year. However, there are a lot of predictions for a down year for the Yankees due to significant injuries. Much of their lineup is expected to start the year on the injured list. Will this keep the Yankees out of the playoffs in 2013?
The offensive star for the Yankees is second baseman Robinson Cano. Cano is an exceptional hitter at a defensive premium position. As a matter of fact, he is one of the top hitters in the game as shown by his .313/.379/.550 line last year. He is very good at getting on base, but the real asset he provides is his power. Last year, he provided 6.937 eq. runs for the Yankees and he is only expected to regress to 6.800 eq. runs in 2013. That makes him one of the top elite hitters in the game, and as a second baseman, he is perhaps the most valuable hitter in the game. On top of that for the Yankees, he is one of their few stars who will not start the year on the injured list. The more well-known player in the middle of the Yankees' infield is shortstop Derek Jeter. Jeter has been the face of the Yankees' franchise since the mid-1990s. Once one of the top hitters in the game, Jeter is still fairly good. His power is not great, but it's still good and his OBP makes him a prime top of the order candidate. Last year, he put together a line of .316/.362/.429, good for 5.358 eq. runs. He is expected to regress to about 5.037 eq. runs in 2013. That precludes him from being elite, but as a shortstop, he is extremely valuable if he can continue to put together 5+ eq. run seasons. It is uncertain if he can, as he is getting older and he is starting the year on the injured list.
The Yankees also have some other offensive stars, though they will start on the injured list. Mark Teixeira will return and play first base at some point this season. While he has been generally disappointing with the Yankees, that has been because Teixeira has been an elite hitter over most of his career. His line is still very good at .251/.332/.475 last year, good for 5.265 eq. runs, which is still a very good number. As a first baseman, Teixeira is still above average and he is expected to improve significantly to 5.805 eq. runs. He will provide plenty of power and some contact skills to the middle of the Yankees lineup upon his return. In center field, the Yankees will return Curtis Granderson at some point this season. Like Jeter and Teixeira, Granderson will start the year on the injured list. He had a relatively disappointing year for him last year with a .232/.319/.492 line. He has significant power, though his OBP was well below his average last year. In 2011, Granderson was 4th in MVP voting, so last year was a bit of a disappointment at 5.207 eq. runs. He is expected to improve to about 5.863 eq. runs. As a top of the order hitter, Granderson might struggle. His power is much better placed in the middle of the order. In addition, as a center fielder, Granderson is at a defensive premium position. He provides a ton of value to this lineup.
The Yankees made a splash in the middle of the year last year trading for long-time Mariner outfielder Ichiro Suzuki. Once the premier contact hitter in the game getting over 200 hits per season every season, he has fallen considerably in recent years. However, he seemed to have a bit of a revival with the Yankees last year playing meaningful baseball for the first time in a long while. Last year, he hit for a .283/.307/.390 line, good for 3.984 eq. runs. However, that number was much lower with Seattle than it was with the Yankees. Still, Ichiro is on the downward slope of his career and has very little power. He will have to rely significantly on his ability to get on base, and a .307 OBP will not cut it. He is expected to be worth 3.984 eq. runs again in 2013. The Yankees will also return outfielder Brett Gardner to their lineup. With Granderson injured, Gardner will likely start the year as the center fielder. When Granderson comes back, Gardner will likely play left field. He put together a line of .262/.349/.370, good for 4.559 eq. runs. He has very little power, but his high OBP would make him a prime lead-off candidate, and he is expected to lead off for the Yankees this year. He likely won't bat much with players on base, but his ability to get on base will be important so the power hitters can bring him in. He is expected to continue to be worth 4.559 eq. runs in 2013.
The Yankees did bring in a few free agents in the offseason, but neither are superstars. They are more role players. At third base, replacing injured Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees signed former Red Sox and White Sox infielder Kevin Youkilis. He was once one of the top hitters in the game, but he has fallen considerably after a few injuries. Last year, he put together a line of .235/.336/.409, showing he is essentially an average hitter at this point in his career. He was worth 4.684 eq. runs last year, and he is expected to improve to 5.059 eq. runs in 2013. That's not a bad line for a starting third baseman, and can add value as a supporting hitter in the lineup. The Yankees also brought in former Cleveland Indian Travis Hafner to be the designated hitter. Last year, Hafner put together a line of .228/.346/.438, showing he has a good ability to get on base and hit for some power. He was worth 5.149 eq. runs last year, but his BABIP (.233) was exceptionally low last year. When adjusting his eq. run statistic for BABIP, it increases the eq. runs to 6.517, which would make him an elite hitter in baseball. I don't really trust that he will be that good, but he will be better than 5.149 eq. runs. The last member of the Yankees' lineup will be catcher Chris Stewart. Stewart is clearly the weakpoint of the lineup, as shown by his .241/.292/.319 line. He was worth about 3.088 eq. runs last year, and that puts him way at the bottom of the lineup. He is expected to only improve to about 3.115 eq. runs. He has to replace Russell Martin, who was far from being an elite hitting catcher, but was a reasonable starter. Stewart will have to watch his back and hit better if he wants to keep the starting job.
It is hard to put together a list of players on the bench knowing that it will change significantly as the year goes on due to injuries. Therefore, instead of saying bench players, I will call this group players that are expected to get bench-type playing time. It will consist of catcher Francisco Cervelli, infielders Eduardo Nunez and Alex Rodriguez, and outfielder Vernon Wells. Cervelli will give Stewart a good run for his money at the catcher position. He is dealing with a PED scandal right now, but he put together a solid .264/.326/.392 line last year. He has some power and some on-base abilities, making him a good candidate to usurp the starting catcher job at some point in the year. Last year, he was worth about 4.342 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only slightly, to 4.173 eq. runs. He would be an average catcher if he started, and he should get that opportunity at some point this year. Alex Rodriguez is dealing with an injury that could potentially keep him out all year. If he wasn't injured, he would not be on the bench and would be starting over Youkilis. Like Cervelli, he is also involved in a PED scandal, and he and Ryan Braun seem to be targets of the Major League Baseball
For a long time, the Yankees had an elite lineup, but their pitching staff was holding them back. Now, their lineup will be struggling with injuries for much of the year, and their pitching staff will keep them from falling. The ace of the staff will remain CC Sabathia, who remains one of the top pitchers in the game. He struck out about 23.7% of the batters he faced last year, while only walking 5.3%. On top of that, he is an above average contact pitcher, giving up 0.98 ground balls for every fly ball. Based on all of this, he is expected to give up 3.06 runs per nine innings, an extremely low amount. He is not only an ace on this team, but he is one of the top aces in the game. The Yankees will also return Hiroki Kuroda as the second pitcher in the rotation. He isn't a great strikeout pitcher like Sabathia, as he walked 18.7% of the batters he faced. However, he only walked 5.7% and had an even better GB / FB ratio at 1.11. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.39 runs per nine innings. For most teams, this would be good to be the top pitcher in the staff, but the Yankees have the luxury of being able to put him in the middle relief role. That is a huge plus. The Yankees will also return twice retired veteran Andy Pettitte. When Andy Pettitte came back for his third time, it was unsure how he would do. He was getting up there in years and got caught with PEDs in his system. However, he has thrived since coming back. Last year, he struck out 22.8% of the batters he faced while walking only 6.9%. On top of that, he is a very good contact pitcher, getting 1.24 ground balls for every fly ball. His age may eventually catch up to him, but at this point, he is expected to give up 3.19 runs per nine innings. Again, for most teams, he'd be an ace. With the Yankees, he's a middle of the rotation starter.
The rest of the Yankees' rotation will be made up of younger pitchers. For a while, Phil Hughes was considered a top prospect for the Yankees. He disappointed for the first few years of his career, but he has come along and become a solid middle of the rotation starter. He strikes out his fair share at 20.3%, and only walked about 5.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he is weak as a contact pitcher, only getting about 0.48 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, Hughes is expected to give up 4.01 runs per nine innings, and that could improve if he can get more ground balls. The Yankees will also return Ivan Nova. Nova's strikeout rate is like Hughes' at 20.5%. He does walk a few more batters at 7.5% last year, but he makes up for that by having average contact pitching statistics, getting 0.84 ground balls per fly ball. In all reality, he is expected to give up essentially the same number of runs per nine innings as Hughes, at 4.00 eq. runs. As bottom of the rotation starters, Hughes and Nova are excellent. Their statistics would put them closer to middle-of-the-rotation status, but as #4 and #5 pitchers, Hughes and Nova provide huge value.
One of the biggest and most surprising injuries in Major League Baseball last year happened to closer Mariano Rivera when he got injured shagging balls during batting practice. For the last 15 or so years, Rivera has been the best closer in the game, and he hasn't seemed to slow down. He could fall significantly due to age or injury, but Rivera is expected to be a top reliever in the game in his final year. He struck out 25.7% of the batters he faced in the last two years and only walked 3.8%. He is also an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground ball per fly ball last year. He is expected to give up 2.67 runs per nine innings, which is very good for any pitcher, including a closer. The Yankees will also return setup man David Robertson. Robertson is actually a better strikeout pitcher than Rivera, getting a strikeout in 32.7% against the batters he faced last year. However, he walks a bit more, at a 7.7% rate. That is still a very good ratio, but compared to Rivera, it's a bit of a step down. He is expected to give up 3.10 runs per nine innings, which would be good to close for most teams. The Yankees have a good closing option in house after Rivera retires at the end of the year. The Yankees will also return Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. He is less of a strikeout pitcher than Rivera and Robertson, getting a strikeout in only about 23.2% of the opposing plate appearances. However, he has a good walk rate at 5.3% and is an average contact pitcher, getting about 0.88 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he's still a solid reliever, as he is expected to give up about 3.45 runs per nine innings. As a reliever, Chamberlain has had good success and could provide another late inning option for the Yankees.
The Yankees may struggle to begin the year due to the large number of injuries, but I don't expect them to struggle that mightily. They still have a decent lineup consisting of Robinson Cano, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, and Ichiro Suzuki to begin the year, and their rotation is now elite. They have three potential aces and two potential middle rotation starters in the rotation at this point. In addition, they have a top flight bullpen. They are expected to have the third best pitching in the American League based on runs given up, and that will be good to keep the Yankees atop the competitive American League East. The Yankees are expected to win the American League East with a 95-67 record.
I will start out this part of the article by saying that I have no connection to the Arizona Diamondbacks. I certainly don't have anything against them, but they are not my favorite team, and there was no way that I would expect the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the National League West over the World Series Champions San Francisco Giants and the big spending Los Angeles Dodgers. However, my projections show that they will win the National League West and be a top team in the National League. They have a solid all-around lineup and a very good rotation. They don't have any players that would qualify as elite, but they seem to be very good all around.
The closest player the Diamondbacks have to an elite player is their second baseman, Aaron Hill. In the past, Hill was seen more as a nice player to have in a lineup than someone to build an offense around. However, he put together a great line of .302/.360/.522 last year, good for 6.275 eq. runs. Anytime a hitter hits for over 6 eq. runs, it was a very successful season and a sign of a player who you can build a lineup around. He has significant power and a good ability to get on base. While not elite in either of these categories, he is well above average in each of these categories. In addition, he plays a defensive premium position at second base. He is expected to regress to 5.847 eq. runs in 2013, but that would still be a very good year. The Diamondbacks will also return first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to their lineup. While he is not seen as a top first baseman throughout baseball, he has been very good the last two years. Last year, he put together a line of .286/.359/.490, showing he can hit for some power and surprisingly good contact. Last year, he was good for 5.917 eq. runs. Unlike Hill, he plays at an offensive heavy position, making his value slightly less than Hill's. However, Goldschmidt has quietly become one of the more solid hitters in the game. He is expected to regress to about 5.623 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still very good, even at first base. Hill and Goldschmidt aren't elite hitters, but they would add value to any lineup.
The Diamondbacks will also return two other very good hitters. The expected starting left fielder for the Diamondbacks will be Jason Kubel. The former Twin put together a line of .253/.327/.506 last year, showing his real asset at the plate is power. As a contact hitter, he is average or even slightly below average. He was worth 5.498 eq. runs in 2012, which, again, is not elite, but still has lots of value. He does play at an offense heavy position, but he will still add value. He is expected to improve slightly to 5.557 eq. runs in 2013. As a middle of the lineup hitter, Kubel would be very good. The Diamondbacks will also return catcher Miguel Montero to the lineup. Montero is a player known most for his power at the plate. However, his line of .286/.391/.438 last year shows that his real top asset is his ability to get on base. He would be a great leadoff hitter for the Diamondbacks. Last year, he fell just short of 6 eq. runs with 5.996 eq. runs. He is expected to regress a bit to 5.268 eq. runs. He is still not only a very good hitter, but one who does so while playing at the most defensive position in the game. Montero is a huge asset to this Diamondbacks' team, and could be even better as a leadoff hitter.
The Diamondbacks also brought in two new players in the offseason. The expected starting third baseman for the Diamondbacks will be former Atlanta Brave Martin Prado, whom the Diamondbacks acquired in the trade that sent Justin Upton to Atlanta. Prado is a very versatile player, but he is also an underrated hitter. Last year, he hit for a .301/.359/.438 line. He is above average as both a contact hitter and decent as a power hitter, and he actually hit for more eq. runs than Upton last year, who hit for 5.237 eq. runs last year. Prado hit for 5.390 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only slightly to 5.281 eq. runs in 2013. He is a very welcome addition to this lineup. Another welcome addition to the lineup after the trade of Justin Upton is new right fielder Cody Ross. Acquired via free agency, Ross put together a decent line of .267/.326/.481 last year. That gives him 5.218 eq. runs, which is again a solid amount, even for an offensive heavy position like right fielder. Ross has some speed, but his biggest asset at the plate is his power. As a contact hitter, he is only average; as a power hitter, he is above average. He would be best played in the middle of a lineup. He is projected to regress slightly to 4.983 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still above average, even in right field.
One of the more exciting parts of the Diamondbacks' lineup is their high level prospect center fielder Adam Eaton. Eaton will be expected to bat near the top of the order with a .259/.382/.412 line last year. He didn't show that much power in his limited time with Arizona last year, but his OBP was quite high. It was actually high enough to give him 5.571 eq. runs. He is a prospect and can be expected to get better as time goes on; however, even if he wasn't, he'd be expected to improve (albeit slightly) to 5.589 eq. runs. As with any rookie, Eaton could be the next Mike Trout or the next Jeff Clement. He is expected to be a solid rookie in the running for Rookie of the Year, but it's just impossible to tell how a player will react to playing every day in a Major League lineup. Really, though, he is expected to be above average. One player who is expected to be well below average offensively is shortstop Cliff Pennington, who was only able to put together a line of .215/.278/.311 last year. The Diamondbacks' lineup is very good and likely able to withstand a weak bat like Pennington's, but they would like to see him play better to maintain a starting job. Last year, he was only worth 2.779 eq. runs, which is pitifully low. He has low power and very little ability to get on base, but he is expected to improve slightly to 3.272 eq. runs in 2013. Pennington isn't an ideal player to have wrap up this lineup, but the lineup consists of seven other above average players. They can withstand a Cliff Pennington.
The Diamondbacks are expected to bring in a balanced bench with a few very good offensive players and a few very good defensive catchers. It is expected to consist of catcher Wil Nieves, infielders Eric Chavez, Eric Hinske, and Willie Bloomquist, and outfielder Gerardo Parra. Eric Chavez is coming off a solid year with the Yankees where he hit .281/.348/.496. He still has a lot of power and a good ability to get on base, and he is a top bench hitter with a 5.776 eq. run statistic last year. He is pretty much limited to third base, and with Martin Prado there, he probably won't be an everyday starter without an injury. However, an injury in the corner outfield or at second base could move Prado off of third base and Chavez would slip into the role at third base. Willie Bloomquist has gotten a lot of time in the middle infield in recent years due to an injury to former shortstop Stephen Drew. He has been okay at the plate, as shown by his .302/.325/.398 line last year. He could give Pennington a run for his money at shortstop, though both his contact and power hitting skills are below average. He was worth 4.380 eq. runs last year, and is expected to regress to 3.812 eq. runs in 2013. That's good for a utility infielder, but below average for a starter. Parra was once a starting outfielder for the Diamondbacks, but he has been squeezed out of that role. He is a Gold Glove winner, and can hit for some power and contact. Last year, he put together a .273/.335/.392 line, which was good for 4.505 eq. runs. That won't compete with Kubel, Eaton, or Ross, but as a fourth outfielder, he is an excellent option. He is not a player that the Diamondbacks would have to worry about if he needed to get a lot of starts.
The Arizona Diamondbacks quietly have one of the better lineups in baseball. They also quietly have one of the better rotations in baseball. The ace of the staff is Ian Kennedy, a 21 game winner two years ago. He slowed down a bit last year, but still is able to strike out batters at a very good rate (20.8%) while avoiding walking them (6.1%). He is a below average contact pitcher, getting 0.60 ground balls per fly ball, and that all means that he is expected to be worth 3.94 eq. runs in 2013. For an ace of the staff, this is rather high, but it's still not terrible. 2012 was a down year for him, and if he can pitch more like he did in 2011, his eq. run against statistic will fall dramatically. The Diamondbacks will also return Trevor Cahill to the rotation. Cahill is not the strikeout or control pitcher Kennedy is, as shown by his 18.6% strikeout rate and his 8.8% walk rate. However, he is able ot more than make up for it with an exceptional ability to pitch to contact. Last year, he gave up 1.59 ground balls for every fly ball. That brings his expected eq. runs against statistic to fall all the way to 3.55. That would be good to be the ace of the staff, but it certainly puts him at the top of the rotation. If he is able to improve on control or power pitching, he could become a true ace. The Diamondbacks will also return the player who finished second place in the Rookie of the Year voting for the National League last year, Wade Miley. Miley is a control first pitcher with a decent ability to strike batters out, as shown by his 17.8% strike out rate and his 4.6% walk rate. That is a great ratio and shows he didn't get overly lucky with his rookie season. He is also an average contact pitcher, getting 0.77 ground balls per fly ball. This all makes him a 3.62 eq. run player. Miley could become the top pitcher in the Diamondbacks' rotation if he improves his strikeout rate or groundball/fly ball ratio. Between him, Kennedy, and Cahill, the Diamondbacks have three top of the rotation pitchers.
The Diamondbacks also made one of the smarter moves in the offseason, signing former Oakland Athletics pitcher Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy is definitely not a strikeout ratio, striking out only 15.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he offset that by walking only 5.1%. He is a slightly below average contact pitcher, getting only 0.69 ground balls per nine innings. He is a good innings eater and is expected to give up 4.01 runs per nine innings. This makes him a perfectly acceptable and potentially above average middle of the rotation pitcher. The Diamondbacks have another young pitcher with a lot of ability at the bottom of the expected rotation in Pat Corbin. In limited time last year, Corbin showed he was an above average strikeout (18.9%) and walk (5.5%) pitcher. In addition, he is an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.82 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.68 runs per nine innings, making him a well above average middle of the rotation starter and an acceptable top of the rotation starter. In all, the Diamondbacks have three or four top of the rotation starters and one or two middle of the rotation starters. Again, they have nothing flashy, but they are solid in the rotation.
They are also solid in the bullpen. The closer is expected to be J.J. Putz. Putz is a well above average strikeout pitcher, striking out 29.8% of the batters he faced last year. In addition, he is a well above average control pitcher, walking only 5.1% of the batters he faced last year. To make things even better, he is a slightly above average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground balls for every fly ball last year. He is expected to give up about 2.69 runs per nine innings in 2013, making him an elite closer in the game. However, he is not the only well above average pitcher in the bullpen. The setup man in this bullpen is expected to be David Hernandez. Hernandez strikes out batters at an even higher rate, 35.3% last year, but gave up a few more walks because of it. He walked 7.9% of the batters he faced last year. In addition, he is very below average as a contact pitcher, giving up only 0.44 ground balls per fly ball. However, his extremely high strikeout total and his good walk total make him a 3.39 eq. run pitcher. He would be a contender to close on most teams, but as a setup man for the Diamondbacks, he provides a lot of value for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks also acquired former Miami Marlin closer Heath Bell to pitch late in games. Bell was very bad last year, but his peripherals show he wasn't as bad as his more used stats (5.09 ERA). He struck out 20.6% of the batters he faced last year while walking 10.10%. He walks way too many to be an effective closer, but if he can find his control again, he could provide a lot of value to the Diamondbacks. He is also a slightly above average contact pitcher, getting 0.90 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is expected to give up 4.53 runs per nine innings. That's not a closer, but it's also not as bad as his 2012 season with the Marlins.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are not expected to do much by many prognosticators. However, despite the lack of star power in their lineup and rotation, they are solid all around. They are expected to have seven players in their starting lineup with 4.9 eq. runs or more and they are expected to have a rotation with no pitchers expected to give up more than 4.01 runs per nine innings. That is solid. Solid enough to win the National League West with a 91-71 record.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
2013 MLB Projections - 3rd in the League
This is a continuing series of posts showing projections for the 2013 Major League Baseball season. We are now getting to the elite teams in the game of baseball. We have gone through four playoff teams so far: the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays in the American League, and the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves in the National League. Now we are getting to teams that won't be fighting for a playoff spot all year, because they will have control of their playoff run by the middle of September.
3. Texas Rangers
Over the last three years, it'd be very difficult to find a team that has been more successful than the Texas Rangers. They made the World Series in 2010 and 2011, and made the playoffs in 2012. However, 2012 was seen as a disappointment. In control of the division all year, they sputtered to the end of the season. On the last day of the season, they lost the title to the upstart Oakland Athletics, and the Rangers were stuck playing in the American League Wild Card game against the Baltimore Orioles. They lost that game, and saw their season come to a quick end. They should be able to compete again in 2013, and there is a good chance they can continue their recent legacy of winning.
The offensive star for the Texas Rangers last year was veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre. Beltre is known as a very streaky player, and last year was a high year for him. He hit for a .321/.359/.561 line, showing that he has a good ability to get on base, but also that he has huge power. A .920 OPS doesn't come along very often, and neither does a 6.682 eq. run statistic, which Beltre put together last year. That is the line of an elite Major League hitter. If he can keep that up, he will be an extremely powerful bat in an extremely powerful lineup. He is expected to regress slightly to a 6.306 eq. run player, but as mentioned, he is very streaky. He could repeat a 6.682 eq. run season or he could fall below 5 eq. runs. The Rangers will also return left fielder David Murphy, who quietly put together another elite line last year, at .304/.380/.479. That is good for 6.199 eq. runs, and anything over 6 is seen as elite. He is, for the most part, a fairly unknown player, but he can hit. Although he is expected to regress slightly to 5.908 eq. runs next year, he will be an integral park of this lineup. If he keeps on hitting like he has been, he will be a well known hitter before long.
The Rangers did lose slugger Josh Hamilton in the offseason, and even worse, they lost him to their rival, the Los Angeles Angels. They also lost slugging catcher Mike Napoli via free agency last year to the Boston Red Sox. To make up for this loss of offensive production, they brought in a few bats. At designated hitter, the Rangers brought in Lance Berkman, the former St. Louis Cardinal. Two years ago, he was one of the top hitters in baseball. However, he struggled with major injuries last year, only giving him a handful of plate appearances. Over the past two years, he has put together a line of .295/.408/.533. This shows that his power is still there, but he can get on base at an incredible rate. Over that time, he has been worth an incredible 7.309 eq. runs. He is getting older, and injuries are playing a big role. However, his BABIP only suggests a regression to 7.178 eq. runs in 2013. Honestly, I don't know how much I believe that, but he could still be a top hitter in the game. The Rangers also brought in slugging catcher A.J. Pierzynski to replace Napoli. Pierzynski was a Silver Slugger last year with the White Sox as he put together a .278/.326/.501 line. His OBP is satisfactory, but his real offensive asset is his power. Two years ago, Napoli was one of the top ten hitters in the game, and despite a disappointing year last year, he was still a good hitter. Pierzynski is expected to continue that trend, and be worth 5.662 eq. runs in 2013.
The Rangers will return the rest of their infield. The face of the Rangers' franchise at this point is likely second baseman Ian Kinsler, who has shown skill with the bat despite playing a defensive premium position. Last year, he put together a line of .256/.326/.423, showing he has satisfactory contact and power hitting skills. He isn't really anything special at this point in his career, as he was worth 4.637 eq. runs in 2012. However, as a second baseman, he has above average abilities. He is expected to improve slightly to 4.800 eq. runs in 2013. At first base, the Rangers will return Mitch Moreland. More is expected of Moreland because of his position, and he was good at the plate last year with a .275/.321/.468 line. That is good for 4.995 eq. runs, which is probably about average for a first baseman. He has satisfactory ability to get on base, but a decent amount of power. He is expected to regress in 2013, but only slightly to 4.840 eq. runs. For a first baseman, that is average. However, this lineup is full of top flight hitters and as long as Moreland can be a satisfactory supporting bat, he will help the Rangers. Finishing out the infield is speedy shortstop Elvis Andrus. Andrus, who is expected to bat near the top of the order with the Rangers, is well placed there, as shown by his .286/.349/.378 line last year. A .349 OBP shows that his an above average contact hitter. He doesn't have much power, but as a top of the lineup hitter, his job is to get on base for the power hitters like Berkman, Beltre, Murphy, and Pierzynski. He is also an above average defensive shortstop, so he will play a big role with the Rangers this year.
The rest of the Rangers' lineup will consist of the remaining outfielders. In right field is Nelson Cruz, another streaky power hitter. Last year was a down year for Cruz, as shown by his .260/.319/.460 line. He is not much of a contact hitter, though he wasn't bad in that field last year. His real asset at the plate is power, and last year was a relative down year for him. He was worth about 4.878 eq. runs last year, which is still good for a supporting player in a lineup, but he expects more. He is also under scrutiny this year because of PED accusations in the offseason. He is projected to hit for just about the same amount of production last year, as he is projected to hit worth 4.864 eq. runs in 2013. The last member of the lineup is prospect Leonys Martin, the center fielder. He has a lot on his shoulders, as he is replacing the former star of this lineup, Josh Hamilton, in center field. Martin only has limited experience at the Major League level. However, he was a star in AAA. It is hard to put together a good Major League equivalent line from AAA, but he put together a .300/.348/.490 Major League equivalent line last year, showing he has good ability to get on base with significant power. That is worth 5.713 eq. runs. As with any Minor Leaguer, they could be a big surprise or a big disappointment. My projection is that Martin will succeed at the Major League level, but there is precedent for the best Minor Leaguers struggling at the Major League level.
The Rangers' bench is expected to get some playing time and it consists of some decent player. It consists of catcher Geovany Soto, corner infielder/outfielder Jeff Baker, middle infielder Leury Garcia, and outfielder Craig Gentry. With an older catcher behind the plate, he will not be able to play every day. Geovany Soto, the former Rookie of the Year with the Chicago Cubs, will back up Pierzynski. Since being Rookie of the Year, Soto has been disappointing. Last year, he put together a line of .198/.270/.343, worth only about 2.917 eq. runs. He is expected to improve to 3.886 eq. runs in 2013, but he has the potential to be better. He used to be able to hit for a lot of power and for a high OBP; if he can do that, he will be worth so much more. With an outfield losing a star player and replacing him with a young prospect, Craig Gentry's role will be important. He showed that he could be valuable with the bat last year with a .304/.367/.392 line. It is unlikely he can maintain that kind of line, as he has little power and his OBP is exceptionally high, but he could still be extremely valuable as a fourth outfielder. Last year, he was worth 5.097 eq. runs. He is expected to regress to about 4.546 eq. runs, but that is still a very good number for a backup outfielder.
The Rangers lineup is full of power, but their rotation isn't quite as good. It's decent, but it is far from elite. The top pitcher in the Rangers' staff is Yu Darvish, who pitched decently as a rookie last year from Japan. He is a great strikeout pitcher (27.1% strikeout percentage). However, he does walk 10.9% of the batters he faces. That offsets a lot of the good he does as a strikeout pitcher, but when you strike out that many, you can walk a few more batters. He is also an average contact pitcher, getting about 0.88 ground ball for every fly ball. He is expected to give up about 4.23 runs per nine innings, which is satisfactory for a middle or bottom of the rotation pitcher. As a top pitcher in a rotation, that is not good. The Rangers will also return Matt Harrison, who put together a solid 3.29 ERA last year. However, his peripheral stats are predicting regression. He strikes out relatively few, at 15.2% while walking fairly few as well, at 6.7%. He is an above average contact pitcher, getting 0.98 ground balls for every fly ball, but he is still expected to give up about 4.07 per nine innings, which is acceptable for a middle of the rotation starter. The Rangers will also return Derek Holland. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, striking out 19.9% of the batters he faced last year. He walks an average amount at 7.1% of the batters and is a slightly below average contact pitcher, getting 0.77 ground balls for every fly ball. Overall, he is a solid middle of the rotation starter, giving up about 4.04 runs per nine innings. None of the top three pitchers in the rotation are aces, but they are all acceptable in a middle of the rotation role.
The remaining two pitchers in the rotation are actually expected to be better than the top three. Alexi Ogando returns as a middle of the rotation starter for the Rangers. He is a good strikeout pitcher without the baggage of being a bad control pitcher. He strikes out about 25.1% of the batters he faced while only walking about 6.5% of the batters he faced. That's a very good ratio. His contact pitching could use some improvement, as he gives up only 0.63 ground balls per fly ball, but his other ratios more than make up for that. He is expected to give up about 3.65 runs per nine innings. The final piece of the rotation will likely start the season on the injured list. That would be Colby Lewis, who is a very good all around pitcher. Last year, he struck out a decent number, 21.8%, while only walking an astroundingly low 3.3%. That kind of ratio is very difficult to find. His weakpoint is as a contact pitcher, who gives up about two fly balls for every ground ball. However, he is expected to give up about 3.34 runs per nine innings when healthy, which would make him a solid top of the rotation pitcher.
The Rangers have lost their expected closer, Neftali Feliz, to a significant injury. To replace him, the Rangers have Joe Nathan to close games. He is actually a superior option to close games, as he strikes out a ton (30.4%) while walking very few (5.1%). On top of that, he is an average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.83 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is a top closer in the game, giving up about 2.65 runs per nine innings. In most cases, the Rangers will be able to shorten the game to eight innings; if they lead after eight, they are very likely to win the game. The Rangers have another strikeout pitcher in their bullpen, though he is not as strong an option. He is Jason Frasor, who strikes out about 27.8% of the batters he faces. however, unlike Nathan, he walks way too many. Last year, he gave up a walk in 11.5% of the opposing plate appearances, taking away a lot of the success that usually comes with a high strikeout percentage. On top of that, he is a below average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.69 ground balls per fly ball. In the end, he is expected to give up about 4.55 runs per nine innings, which is not good for a end of the bullpen type pitcher. The Rangers have another option at the end of the bullpen, however. That would be Robert Ross, who is not a strikeout pitcher. He only strikes out about 17.7% of the batters he faced last year while walking 8.7%. That is not a good ratio, but he still has a decent amount of success. That is likely due to his contact pitching, where he give up about 1.66 ground balls per fly ball. Because of that contact pitching, he is only expected to give up 3.51 runs per nine innings, which is satisfactory for an end of the bullpen pitcher.
The Rangers have a decent pitching staff and bullpen. They're not anything to write home about, but they will keep the Rangers in games and give them a good chance to win many games. However, the real stars of this team are the members of the lineup. The Rangers are expected to have the second best offense in the American League, and most pitching staffs will keep that kind of production in games. They are expected to avoid a late season slump and win the division this year with a 90-72 record.
3. Cincinnati Reds
Last year, the Cincinnati Reds won the tough National League Central over the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Pittsburgh Pirates. They did it with an good lineup, a very good rotation, and a great bullpen. They were an all-around solid team. However, they did have one other thing on their side: luck. While they did see an injury to their MVP-caliber first baseman, they got exceptionally lucky in their rotation, where their five starters at the beginning of the year started 161 of the 162 regular season games last year. However, the National League Central is expected to be even better in 2013, and sometimes luck runs out. Their combination of offense and defense, however, make them a prime contender in this division.
When talking about their offense, it all really begins with their former MVP first baseman, Joey Votto. If he was healthy all year last year, he would have likely been MVP, but would have at least been one of the very top options. However, even with his injury, he was extremely valuable to the Reds, as shown by his out of the world line, .337/.474/.567 line. When most people look at the stats of a power hitter like Votto, they miss out on the best part of his line. His OBP was .474. He got on base 47.4% of the time he stepped up to the plate. That is exceptional, and it was worth 9.004 eq. runs last year. His BABIP was exceptionally high, however, and he is expected to regress significantly. However, a significant regression brings him down to 7.855 eq. runs, which keeps him as one of the top hitters in the game. While Votto is by far the best hitter on the team, he is not the only slugger. Another young slugger on this team is right fielder Jay Bruce. Last year, he hit for a line of .252/.327/.514, good for 5.583 eq. runs. He is a power hitter first with only average contact ability. However, as a middle of the lineup hitter, his average OBP will remain relatively hidden and his power will be important. He is expected to improve slightly to about 5.692 eq. runs. That keeps him out of the realm of elite hitters, but he is an important supporting bat to Votto in the lineup.
The rest of the Reds' outfield has a lot of power. One of the more pleasant surprises for the Reds last year was power hitting left fielder Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick struggled mightily with the Padres and Pirates in recent years, but last year, he became a solid power bat in the lineup with a .275/.346/.531 line. He is known as a power hitter who can hit 30 or more home runs a season, but he also has a good ability to get on base. It is concerning that he had some bad years recently, but Ludwick may have found the power stroke he had with the Reds. Last year, he was expecting to share time in left field; this year, he is expected to be an elite bat in the lineup. He hit for 6.112 eq. runs last year and is actually projected to improve slightly to 6.128 eq. runs. The Reds acquired corner outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the Cleveland Indians in the offseason for Drew Stubbs. However, the corner outfield spots are already filled by Ludwick and Bruce so Choo will be transitioned to a much more difficult position, center field. His defense will likely be a liability; however, he is best known for his offense. Last year, his line was .283/.373/.441, showing he has some power. However, his big asset is his OBP, and he could thrive near the top of the order for the Reds. He will provide a much bigger spark in the lineup than Stubbs did last year, but it will come at the cost of some defense. However, in baseball, offense trumps defense and Choo will be a welcome addition for the Reds.
One of the better players for the Reds in recent years was second baseman Brandon Phillips. He is a solid fielder, has a lot of speed, but also can hit for contact and power from a defense heavy position. Last year was a down year for him, at a .281/.321/.429 line, but he still shows some power. He has appeared to regress last year and is getting older. A bad sign is that his BABIP was high as well last year, and he is expected to regress further from a 4.606 eq. run player to a 4.562 eq. run player. However, he could very will find his power stroke again. If not, he could start to focus on being a contact hitter again and forgo some power in the process. Either way, however, at a defensive premium position like second base, Phillips is still a net positive. It isn't very often that a bench player is considered for Rookie of the Year, but last year, backup corner infielder Todd Frazier finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting last year. He played a lot of time at third base because starter Scott Rolen was getting up there in years. He also got a lot of time at first base while Joey Votto was injured, and he was a major reason the team didn't seem much of a drop in production when Votto went down last year. He put together a solid .273/.331/.498 line, showing he has a decent ability to get on base, but also that he had good power. Now that Rolen is gone from the Reds, Frazier is expected to take the everyday role at third base. If he can continue to be a 5.486 eq. run player, he will be a very welcome addition to the everyday lineup. Even if he regresses as expected to a 5.259 eq. run player, he will be welcome to the everyday lineup.
The Reds will also return catcher Ryan Hanigan, who was expected to at least be a part-time catcher at this point. Hanigan will likely still split time at catcher, but he has been impressive enough to keep the starting job for the Reds. Last year, he put together a line of .274/.365/.338 line. He has virtually no power, but his OBP is exceptional. Last year, he was worth about 4.572 eq. runs, and he is expected to fall only slightly to 4.538 eq. runs in 2013. It would be unconventional, but he would be great at the top of the order, as his lack of power would be hidden by the fact he'd be batting at a time where very few hitters are on base and his ability to get on base would be considered a plus when hitters like Phillips, Votto, Frazier, Choo, Ludwick, and Bruce are hitting behind him. However, the Reds have been putting shortstop Zack Cozart at the top of the order. He is not much of a power hitter, but he's not much of a contact hitter either. Last year, he put together a line of .246/.288/.399, showing he has very little power. His OBP is also way too low; it needs to be brought up to .300 to even be satisfactory for a defensive premium position like shortstop. As a hitter, especially a leadoff hitter, Cozart is not good. Last year, he was worth 3.736 eq. runs, and he is only expected to improve marginally to 3.775 eq. runs in 2013. He is young and could improve, but at this point, he is nothing but a bottom of the lineup hitter as a baseball player.
The bench for the Cincinnati Reds is expected to consist of catcher Devin Mesoraco, infielders Jack Hannahan and Jason Donald, and outfielders Chris Heisey and Xavier Paul. Mesoraco is a very young catcher who is expected to eventually take over for Hanigan behind the plate. However, while Hanigan is a great contact hitter, Mesoraco struggled all around at the plate last year, hitting for a .212/.288/.352 line. He has a lot of work to do to dethrone Hanigan from the starting role. Last year, he was only worth 3.305 eq. runs. A low BABIP last year indicates that he should improve to about 3.877 eq. runs due to just lack of bad luck, but even that is low given the expectations the Reds have for Mesoraco. Jack Hannahan is projected to be the top backup infielder for the Reds. He is not an offensive specialist and will have to depend on his versatility to maintain a spot with the Reds. Last year, he put together a line of .244/.312/.341, making him a below average contact hitter and a hitter with virtually no power. That is worth about 3.629 eq. runs, which is adequate for a backup middle infielder. Chris Heisey was expected to compete for a starting job last year, but lost out when Ryan Hanigan ran away with the job. However, Heisey is not a bad player and is good as a fourth outfielder. Last year, he put together a line of .265/.315/.401. That is a somewhat disappointing line, especially with the below average OBP. He is expected to regress from a 4.229 eq. run player in 2012 to a 3.935 eq. run player in 2013, but that is not terrible for a pinch hitting option and fourth outfielder. As an everyday player, the Reds would prefer something much better.
One of the major reasons Cincinnati had so much success last year was their rotation. Not only is their rotation very good, but they also only missed one start all year. That, in all likelihood, cannot be replicated. However, they are still expected to play a big role with the Reds. The ace of the staff is a perennial Cy Young candidate in Johnny Cueto. While he is known as a fireballing pitcher, he isn't a great strikeout pitcher, as he only struck out 19.1% of the batters he faced last year. However, his real skill is in his control, where he only walked 5.5% of the batters he faced last year. He is an above average contact pitcher as well, giving up about 0.96 ground balls per fly ball. In all, he is expected to give up about 3.50 runs per nine innings in 2013. That is very good, and that makes him a legitimate ace of the staff. The next pitcher in the staff is Mat Latos. He is more of a strikeout pitcher than Cueto, striking out 21.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he doesn't do a bad job at giving up walks, as he only walks about 7.5% of the batters he faced. In addition, he has an average contact pitching line, giving up 0.85 ground balls per fly ball. Latos is more of the power pitcher while Cueto is more of a control pitcher; however, neither is bad at either of those categories. Latos is a legitimately good middle of the rotation starter expected to give up about 3.90 runs per nine innings. The Reds will also return veteran Bronson Arroyo to the rotation. Arroyo is a more extreme version of Johnny Cueto. He strikes out much fewer batters than Cueto, at 15.5%. However, he walks even less, as he only walks 4.2% of the batters he faces. He is a slightly worse contact pitcher, as he give up 0.72 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up about 3.78 runs per nine innings, above average for a middle of the rotation starter.
The Reds will also return starter Homer Bailey to the rotation. Bailey has suffered from injuries and lack of control in the past, but finally seemed to put it all together in 2012. He struck out a decent number of batters, as he struck out 19.2% of the batters he faced. On top of that, he only walked 6% of the batters he faced and did this all as an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground balls per fly ball last year. In all, he is expected to give up 3.75 runs per nine innings, making him a solid and above average middle rotation starter. The fifth starter spot was expected to go to superstar closer Aroldis Chapman. However, he expressed a negative opinion about that role and was moved back to the bullpen. Therefore, the fifth starter will be a returner: young Mike Leake. Leake, like Cueto and Arroyo, is a control pitcher first. He only struck out about 15.3% of the batters he faced last year while walking only 5.4%. He is also an above average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.97 ground balls per fly ball. In all reality, Leake is a very good pitcher and an asset to the team. It's kind of amazing that the Reds were going to send him to the Minors to begin the year and they would still improve the rotation. Leake is expected to give up about 3.77 runs per nine innings, which is above average for a middle of the rotation starter and well above average for a bottom of the rotation starter. The whole Reds' rotation is very good and if they can stay as healthy as they did last year, they will be very difficult to beat.
As stated above, Aroldis Chapman was expected to start for the Reds in 2013. His skills were not being used enough as a closer and he could be more effective as a starter. Well, he expressed that he would rather be a closer and he is back in this role. He is a strikeout first pitcher capable of throwing 106 MPH. Last year, he struck out about 44.2% of the batters he faced while only walking 8.3%, a very good ratio. His contact pitching is a slight downfall, as he only gets 0.58 ground balls per fly ball. Even so, he is expected to give up only 2.60 runs per nine innings. That kind of line is spectacular for a closer. As a matter of fact, the reduced innings he would get as a closer compared to a starter changed the team from the second best team in the NL to the third best team in the NL. However, he is not the only good reliever in this bullpen. The Reds actually brought in Jonathan Broxton to close games. Now that Chapman is back as the closer, Broxton will take over the setup role. Last year, he had an 18.9% strikeout rate, which is slightly below average for the end of a bullpen pitcher, but his walk rate is good at 7.1%. In addition, he is a very good contact pitcher, giving up about 1.19 ground balls per fly ball. He is expected to be a very important piece to this Cincinnati Reds' bullpen in 2013. The Reds also return Sean Marshall to the bullpen. The lefty specialist is good enough to be a closer on most teams. He strikes out about 28.9% of the batters he faces while walking only 6.3% and getting 1.25 ground balls per fly ball. This leaves him as a 2.54 eq. run pitcher, a spectacular number for any pitcher. The combination of Chapman, Broxton, and Marshall will be a very tough combination to face late in games. To win games, teams will have to get to the rotation because the end of the bullpen will not give up many runs.
The Reds will return a good lineup that does depend significantly on one player, Joey Votto. There is a potential for more than one elite hitter in the lineup, but the only sure thing is Votto. The rotation got lucky last year since they did not get injured. However, they are well above average. The rotation consists of an ace and four above average middle rotation pitchers. The end of the bullpen is solid with Marshall, Broxton, and Chapman closing games. In the end, the decision to move Chapman from the rotation to the bullpen is expected to result in them moving from 2nd to 3rd in the league. In all reality, that doesn't matter much, but it does show that Chapman could be more important to the team in the rotation. In the end, the Reds are expected to finish second in the NL Central, make the playoffs as a wild card, and finish with an 88-74 record.
Over the last three years, it'd be very difficult to find a team that has been more successful than the Texas Rangers. They made the World Series in 2010 and 2011, and made the playoffs in 2012. However, 2012 was seen as a disappointment. In control of the division all year, they sputtered to the end of the season. On the last day of the season, they lost the title to the upstart Oakland Athletics, and the Rangers were stuck playing in the American League Wild Card game against the Baltimore Orioles. They lost that game, and saw their season come to a quick end. They should be able to compete again in 2013, and there is a good chance they can continue their recent legacy of winning.
The offensive star for the Texas Rangers last year was veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre. Beltre is known as a very streaky player, and last year was a high year for him. He hit for a .321/.359/.561 line, showing that he has a good ability to get on base, but also that he has huge power. A .920 OPS doesn't come along very often, and neither does a 6.682 eq. run statistic, which Beltre put together last year. That is the line of an elite Major League hitter. If he can keep that up, he will be an extremely powerful bat in an extremely powerful lineup. He is expected to regress slightly to a 6.306 eq. run player, but as mentioned, he is very streaky. He could repeat a 6.682 eq. run season or he could fall below 5 eq. runs. The Rangers will also return left fielder David Murphy, who quietly put together another elite line last year, at .304/.380/.479. That is good for 6.199 eq. runs, and anything over 6 is seen as elite. He is, for the most part, a fairly unknown player, but he can hit. Although he is expected to regress slightly to 5.908 eq. runs next year, he will be an integral park of this lineup. If he keeps on hitting like he has been, he will be a well known hitter before long.
The Rangers did lose slugger Josh Hamilton in the offseason, and even worse, they lost him to their rival, the Los Angeles Angels. They also lost slugging catcher Mike Napoli via free agency last year to the Boston Red Sox. To make up for this loss of offensive production, they brought in a few bats. At designated hitter, the Rangers brought in Lance Berkman, the former St. Louis Cardinal. Two years ago, he was one of the top hitters in baseball. However, he struggled with major injuries last year, only giving him a handful of plate appearances. Over the past two years, he has put together a line of .295/.408/.533. This shows that his power is still there, but he can get on base at an incredible rate. Over that time, he has been worth an incredible 7.309 eq. runs. He is getting older, and injuries are playing a big role. However, his BABIP only suggests a regression to 7.178 eq. runs in 2013. Honestly, I don't know how much I believe that, but he could still be a top hitter in the game. The Rangers also brought in slugging catcher A.J. Pierzynski to replace Napoli. Pierzynski was a Silver Slugger last year with the White Sox as he put together a .278/.326/.501 line. His OBP is satisfactory, but his real offensive asset is his power. Two years ago, Napoli was one of the top ten hitters in the game, and despite a disappointing year last year, he was still a good hitter. Pierzynski is expected to continue that trend, and be worth 5.662 eq. runs in 2013.
The Rangers will return the rest of their infield. The face of the Rangers' franchise at this point is likely second baseman Ian Kinsler, who has shown skill with the bat despite playing a defensive premium position. Last year, he put together a line of .256/.326/.423, showing he has satisfactory contact and power hitting skills. He isn't really anything special at this point in his career, as he was worth 4.637 eq. runs in 2012. However, as a second baseman, he has above average abilities. He is expected to improve slightly to 4.800 eq. runs in 2013. At first base, the Rangers will return Mitch Moreland. More is expected of Moreland because of his position, and he was good at the plate last year with a .275/.321/.468 line. That is good for 4.995 eq. runs, which is probably about average for a first baseman. He has satisfactory ability to get on base, but a decent amount of power. He is expected to regress in 2013, but only slightly to 4.840 eq. runs. For a first baseman, that is average. However, this lineup is full of top flight hitters and as long as Moreland can be a satisfactory supporting bat, he will help the Rangers. Finishing out the infield is speedy shortstop Elvis Andrus. Andrus, who is expected to bat near the top of the order with the Rangers, is well placed there, as shown by his .286/.349/.378 line last year. A .349 OBP shows that his an above average contact hitter. He doesn't have much power, but as a top of the lineup hitter, his job is to get on base for the power hitters like Berkman, Beltre, Murphy, and Pierzynski. He is also an above average defensive shortstop, so he will play a big role with the Rangers this year.
The rest of the Rangers' lineup will consist of the remaining outfielders. In right field is Nelson Cruz, another streaky power hitter. Last year was a down year for Cruz, as shown by his .260/.319/.460 line. He is not much of a contact hitter, though he wasn't bad in that field last year. His real asset at the plate is power, and last year was a relative down year for him. He was worth about 4.878 eq. runs last year, which is still good for a supporting player in a lineup, but he expects more. He is also under scrutiny this year because of PED accusations in the offseason. He is projected to hit for just about the same amount of production last year, as he is projected to hit worth 4.864 eq. runs in 2013. The last member of the lineup is prospect Leonys Martin, the center fielder. He has a lot on his shoulders, as he is replacing the former star of this lineup, Josh Hamilton, in center field. Martin only has limited experience at the Major League level. However, he was a star in AAA. It is hard to put together a good Major League equivalent line from AAA, but he put together a .300/.348/.490 Major League equivalent line last year, showing he has good ability to get on base with significant power. That is worth 5.713 eq. runs. As with any Minor Leaguer, they could be a big surprise or a big disappointment. My projection is that Martin will succeed at the Major League level, but there is precedent for the best Minor Leaguers struggling at the Major League level.
The Rangers' bench is expected to get some playing time and it consists of some decent player. It consists of catcher Geovany Soto, corner infielder/outfielder Jeff Baker, middle infielder Leury Garcia, and outfielder Craig Gentry. With an older catcher behind the plate, he will not be able to play every day. Geovany Soto, the former Rookie of the Year with the Chicago Cubs, will back up Pierzynski. Since being Rookie of the Year, Soto has been disappointing. Last year, he put together a line of .198/.270/.343, worth only about 2.917 eq. runs. He is expected to improve to 3.886 eq. runs in 2013, but he has the potential to be better. He used to be able to hit for a lot of power and for a high OBP; if he can do that, he will be worth so much more. With an outfield losing a star player and replacing him with a young prospect, Craig Gentry's role will be important. He showed that he could be valuable with the bat last year with a .304/.367/.392 line. It is unlikely he can maintain that kind of line, as he has little power and his OBP is exceptionally high, but he could still be extremely valuable as a fourth outfielder. Last year, he was worth 5.097 eq. runs. He is expected to regress to about 4.546 eq. runs, but that is still a very good number for a backup outfielder.
The Rangers lineup is full of power, but their rotation isn't quite as good. It's decent, but it is far from elite. The top pitcher in the Rangers' staff is Yu Darvish, who pitched decently as a rookie last year from Japan. He is a great strikeout pitcher (27.1% strikeout percentage). However, he does walk 10.9% of the batters he faces. That offsets a lot of the good he does as a strikeout pitcher, but when you strike out that many, you can walk a few more batters. He is also an average contact pitcher, getting about 0.88 ground ball for every fly ball. He is expected to give up about 4.23 runs per nine innings, which is satisfactory for a middle or bottom of the rotation pitcher. As a top pitcher in a rotation, that is not good. The Rangers will also return Matt Harrison, who put together a solid 3.29 ERA last year. However, his peripheral stats are predicting regression. He strikes out relatively few, at 15.2% while walking fairly few as well, at 6.7%. He is an above average contact pitcher, getting 0.98 ground balls for every fly ball, but he is still expected to give up about 4.07 per nine innings, which is acceptable for a middle of the rotation starter. The Rangers will also return Derek Holland. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, striking out 19.9% of the batters he faced last year. He walks an average amount at 7.1% of the batters and is a slightly below average contact pitcher, getting 0.77 ground balls for every fly ball. Overall, he is a solid middle of the rotation starter, giving up about 4.04 runs per nine innings. None of the top three pitchers in the rotation are aces, but they are all acceptable in a middle of the rotation role.
The remaining two pitchers in the rotation are actually expected to be better than the top three. Alexi Ogando returns as a middle of the rotation starter for the Rangers. He is a good strikeout pitcher without the baggage of being a bad control pitcher. He strikes out about 25.1% of the batters he faced while only walking about 6.5% of the batters he faced. That's a very good ratio. His contact pitching could use some improvement, as he gives up only 0.63 ground balls per fly ball, but his other ratios more than make up for that. He is expected to give up about 3.65 runs per nine innings. The final piece of the rotation will likely start the season on the injured list. That would be Colby Lewis, who is a very good all around pitcher. Last year, he struck out a decent number, 21.8%, while only walking an astroundingly low 3.3%. That kind of ratio is very difficult to find. His weakpoint is as a contact pitcher, who gives up about two fly balls for every ground ball. However, he is expected to give up about 3.34 runs per nine innings when healthy, which would make him a solid top of the rotation pitcher.
The Rangers have lost their expected closer, Neftali Feliz, to a significant injury. To replace him, the Rangers have Joe Nathan to close games. He is actually a superior option to close games, as he strikes out a ton (30.4%) while walking very few (5.1%). On top of that, he is an average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.83 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is a top closer in the game, giving up about 2.65 runs per nine innings. In most cases, the Rangers will be able to shorten the game to eight innings; if they lead after eight, they are very likely to win the game. The Rangers have another strikeout pitcher in their bullpen, though he is not as strong an option. He is Jason Frasor, who strikes out about 27.8% of the batters he faces. however, unlike Nathan, he walks way too many. Last year, he gave up a walk in 11.5% of the opposing plate appearances, taking away a lot of the success that usually comes with a high strikeout percentage. On top of that, he is a below average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.69 ground balls per fly ball. In the end, he is expected to give up about 4.55 runs per nine innings, which is not good for a end of the bullpen type pitcher. The Rangers have another option at the end of the bullpen, however. That would be Robert Ross, who is not a strikeout pitcher. He only strikes out about 17.7% of the batters he faced last year while walking 8.7%. That is not a good ratio, but he still has a decent amount of success. That is likely due to his contact pitching, where he give up about 1.66 ground balls per fly ball. Because of that contact pitching, he is only expected to give up 3.51 runs per nine innings, which is satisfactory for an end of the bullpen pitcher.
The Rangers have a decent pitching staff and bullpen. They're not anything to write home about, but they will keep the Rangers in games and give them a good chance to win many games. However, the real stars of this team are the members of the lineup. The Rangers are expected to have the second best offense in the American League, and most pitching staffs will keep that kind of production in games. They are expected to avoid a late season slump and win the division this year with a 90-72 record.
3. Cincinnati Reds
Last year, the Cincinnati Reds won the tough National League Central over the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Pittsburgh Pirates. They did it with an good lineup, a very good rotation, and a great bullpen. They were an all-around solid team. However, they did have one other thing on their side: luck. While they did see an injury to their MVP-caliber first baseman, they got exceptionally lucky in their rotation, where their five starters at the beginning of the year started 161 of the 162 regular season games last year. However, the National League Central is expected to be even better in 2013, and sometimes luck runs out. Their combination of offense and defense, however, make them a prime contender in this division.
When talking about their offense, it all really begins with their former MVP first baseman, Joey Votto. If he was healthy all year last year, he would have likely been MVP, but would have at least been one of the very top options. However, even with his injury, he was extremely valuable to the Reds, as shown by his out of the world line, .337/.474/.567 line. When most people look at the stats of a power hitter like Votto, they miss out on the best part of his line. His OBP was .474. He got on base 47.4% of the time he stepped up to the plate. That is exceptional, and it was worth 9.004 eq. runs last year. His BABIP was exceptionally high, however, and he is expected to regress significantly. However, a significant regression brings him down to 7.855 eq. runs, which keeps him as one of the top hitters in the game. While Votto is by far the best hitter on the team, he is not the only slugger. Another young slugger on this team is right fielder Jay Bruce. Last year, he hit for a line of .252/.327/.514, good for 5.583 eq. runs. He is a power hitter first with only average contact ability. However, as a middle of the lineup hitter, his average OBP will remain relatively hidden and his power will be important. He is expected to improve slightly to about 5.692 eq. runs. That keeps him out of the realm of elite hitters, but he is an important supporting bat to Votto in the lineup.
The rest of the Reds' outfield has a lot of power. One of the more pleasant surprises for the Reds last year was power hitting left fielder Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick struggled mightily with the Padres and Pirates in recent years, but last year, he became a solid power bat in the lineup with a .275/.346/.531 line. He is known as a power hitter who can hit 30 or more home runs a season, but he also has a good ability to get on base. It is concerning that he had some bad years recently, but Ludwick may have found the power stroke he had with the Reds. Last year, he was expecting to share time in left field; this year, he is expected to be an elite bat in the lineup. He hit for 6.112 eq. runs last year and is actually projected to improve slightly to 6.128 eq. runs. The Reds acquired corner outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the Cleveland Indians in the offseason for Drew Stubbs. However, the corner outfield spots are already filled by Ludwick and Bruce so Choo will be transitioned to a much more difficult position, center field. His defense will likely be a liability; however, he is best known for his offense. Last year, his line was .283/.373/.441, showing he has some power. However, his big asset is his OBP, and he could thrive near the top of the order for the Reds. He will provide a much bigger spark in the lineup than Stubbs did last year, but it will come at the cost of some defense. However, in baseball, offense trumps defense and Choo will be a welcome addition for the Reds.
One of the better players for the Reds in recent years was second baseman Brandon Phillips. He is a solid fielder, has a lot of speed, but also can hit for contact and power from a defense heavy position. Last year was a down year for him, at a .281/.321/.429 line, but he still shows some power. He has appeared to regress last year and is getting older. A bad sign is that his BABIP was high as well last year, and he is expected to regress further from a 4.606 eq. run player to a 4.562 eq. run player. However, he could very will find his power stroke again. If not, he could start to focus on being a contact hitter again and forgo some power in the process. Either way, however, at a defensive premium position like second base, Phillips is still a net positive. It isn't very often that a bench player is considered for Rookie of the Year, but last year, backup corner infielder Todd Frazier finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting last year. He played a lot of time at third base because starter Scott Rolen was getting up there in years. He also got a lot of time at first base while Joey Votto was injured, and he was a major reason the team didn't seem much of a drop in production when Votto went down last year. He put together a solid .273/.331/.498 line, showing he has a decent ability to get on base, but also that he had good power. Now that Rolen is gone from the Reds, Frazier is expected to take the everyday role at third base. If he can continue to be a 5.486 eq. run player, he will be a very welcome addition to the everyday lineup. Even if he regresses as expected to a 5.259 eq. run player, he will be welcome to the everyday lineup.
The Reds will also return catcher Ryan Hanigan, who was expected to at least be a part-time catcher at this point. Hanigan will likely still split time at catcher, but he has been impressive enough to keep the starting job for the Reds. Last year, he put together a line of .274/.365/.338 line. He has virtually no power, but his OBP is exceptional. Last year, he was worth about 4.572 eq. runs, and he is expected to fall only slightly to 4.538 eq. runs in 2013. It would be unconventional, but he would be great at the top of the order, as his lack of power would be hidden by the fact he'd be batting at a time where very few hitters are on base and his ability to get on base would be considered a plus when hitters like Phillips, Votto, Frazier, Choo, Ludwick, and Bruce are hitting behind him. However, the Reds have been putting shortstop Zack Cozart at the top of the order. He is not much of a power hitter, but he's not much of a contact hitter either. Last year, he put together a line of .246/.288/.399, showing he has very little power. His OBP is also way too low; it needs to be brought up to .300 to even be satisfactory for a defensive premium position like shortstop. As a hitter, especially a leadoff hitter, Cozart is not good. Last year, he was worth 3.736 eq. runs, and he is only expected to improve marginally to 3.775 eq. runs in 2013. He is young and could improve, but at this point, he is nothing but a bottom of the lineup hitter as a baseball player.
The bench for the Cincinnati Reds is expected to consist of catcher Devin Mesoraco, infielders Jack Hannahan and Jason Donald, and outfielders Chris Heisey and Xavier Paul. Mesoraco is a very young catcher who is expected to eventually take over for Hanigan behind the plate. However, while Hanigan is a great contact hitter, Mesoraco struggled all around at the plate last year, hitting for a .212/.288/.352 line. He has a lot of work to do to dethrone Hanigan from the starting role. Last year, he was only worth 3.305 eq. runs. A low BABIP last year indicates that he should improve to about 3.877 eq. runs due to just lack of bad luck, but even that is low given the expectations the Reds have for Mesoraco. Jack Hannahan is projected to be the top backup infielder for the Reds. He is not an offensive specialist and will have to depend on his versatility to maintain a spot with the Reds. Last year, he put together a line of .244/.312/.341, making him a below average contact hitter and a hitter with virtually no power. That is worth about 3.629 eq. runs, which is adequate for a backup middle infielder. Chris Heisey was expected to compete for a starting job last year, but lost out when Ryan Hanigan ran away with the job. However, Heisey is not a bad player and is good as a fourth outfielder. Last year, he put together a line of .265/.315/.401. That is a somewhat disappointing line, especially with the below average OBP. He is expected to regress from a 4.229 eq. run player in 2012 to a 3.935 eq. run player in 2013, but that is not terrible for a pinch hitting option and fourth outfielder. As an everyday player, the Reds would prefer something much better.
One of the major reasons Cincinnati had so much success last year was their rotation. Not only is their rotation very good, but they also only missed one start all year. That, in all likelihood, cannot be replicated. However, they are still expected to play a big role with the Reds. The ace of the staff is a perennial Cy Young candidate in Johnny Cueto. While he is known as a fireballing pitcher, he isn't a great strikeout pitcher, as he only struck out 19.1% of the batters he faced last year. However, his real skill is in his control, where he only walked 5.5% of the batters he faced last year. He is an above average contact pitcher as well, giving up about 0.96 ground balls per fly ball. In all, he is expected to give up about 3.50 runs per nine innings in 2013. That is very good, and that makes him a legitimate ace of the staff. The next pitcher in the staff is Mat Latos. He is more of a strikeout pitcher than Cueto, striking out 21.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he doesn't do a bad job at giving up walks, as he only walks about 7.5% of the batters he faced. In addition, he has an average contact pitching line, giving up 0.85 ground balls per fly ball. Latos is more of the power pitcher while Cueto is more of a control pitcher; however, neither is bad at either of those categories. Latos is a legitimately good middle of the rotation starter expected to give up about 3.90 runs per nine innings. The Reds will also return veteran Bronson Arroyo to the rotation. Arroyo is a more extreme version of Johnny Cueto. He strikes out much fewer batters than Cueto, at 15.5%. However, he walks even less, as he only walks 4.2% of the batters he faces. He is a slightly worse contact pitcher, as he give up 0.72 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up about 3.78 runs per nine innings, above average for a middle of the rotation starter.
The Reds will also return starter Homer Bailey to the rotation. Bailey has suffered from injuries and lack of control in the past, but finally seemed to put it all together in 2012. He struck out a decent number of batters, as he struck out 19.2% of the batters he faced. On top of that, he only walked 6% of the batters he faced and did this all as an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground balls per fly ball last year. In all, he is expected to give up 3.75 runs per nine innings, making him a solid and above average middle rotation starter. The fifth starter spot was expected to go to superstar closer Aroldis Chapman. However, he expressed a negative opinion about that role and was moved back to the bullpen. Therefore, the fifth starter will be a returner: young Mike Leake. Leake, like Cueto and Arroyo, is a control pitcher first. He only struck out about 15.3% of the batters he faced last year while walking only 5.4%. He is also an above average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.97 ground balls per fly ball. In all reality, Leake is a very good pitcher and an asset to the team. It's kind of amazing that the Reds were going to send him to the Minors to begin the year and they would still improve the rotation. Leake is expected to give up about 3.77 runs per nine innings, which is above average for a middle of the rotation starter and well above average for a bottom of the rotation starter. The whole Reds' rotation is very good and if they can stay as healthy as they did last year, they will be very difficult to beat.
As stated above, Aroldis Chapman was expected to start for the Reds in 2013. His skills were not being used enough as a closer and he could be more effective as a starter. Well, he expressed that he would rather be a closer and he is back in this role. He is a strikeout first pitcher capable of throwing 106 MPH. Last year, he struck out about 44.2% of the batters he faced while only walking 8.3%, a very good ratio. His contact pitching is a slight downfall, as he only gets 0.58 ground balls per fly ball. Even so, he is expected to give up only 2.60 runs per nine innings. That kind of line is spectacular for a closer. As a matter of fact, the reduced innings he would get as a closer compared to a starter changed the team from the second best team in the NL to the third best team in the NL. However, he is not the only good reliever in this bullpen. The Reds actually brought in Jonathan Broxton to close games. Now that Chapman is back as the closer, Broxton will take over the setup role. Last year, he had an 18.9% strikeout rate, which is slightly below average for the end of a bullpen pitcher, but his walk rate is good at 7.1%. In addition, he is a very good contact pitcher, giving up about 1.19 ground balls per fly ball. He is expected to be a very important piece to this Cincinnati Reds' bullpen in 2013. The Reds also return Sean Marshall to the bullpen. The lefty specialist is good enough to be a closer on most teams. He strikes out about 28.9% of the batters he faces while walking only 6.3% and getting 1.25 ground balls per fly ball. This leaves him as a 2.54 eq. run pitcher, a spectacular number for any pitcher. The combination of Chapman, Broxton, and Marshall will be a very tough combination to face late in games. To win games, teams will have to get to the rotation because the end of the bullpen will not give up many runs.
The Reds will return a good lineup that does depend significantly on one player, Joey Votto. There is a potential for more than one elite hitter in the lineup, but the only sure thing is Votto. The rotation got lucky last year since they did not get injured. However, they are well above average. The rotation consists of an ace and four above average middle rotation pitchers. The end of the bullpen is solid with Marshall, Broxton, and Chapman closing games. In the end, the decision to move Chapman from the rotation to the bullpen is expected to result in them moving from 2nd to 3rd in the league. In all reality, that doesn't matter much, but it does show that Chapman could be more important to the team in the rotation. In the end, the Reds are expected to finish second in the NL Central, make the playoffs as a wild card, and finish with an 88-74 record.
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