Last year, the Detroit Tigers won their way to the World Series as was expected by a lot of prognosticators. Quite frankly, they had a lineup with real fire power and a pitching staff containing a lot of above average pitchers and one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, they started rather slowly and had to have a great second half of the season to clinch a spot in the playoffs. The Tigers will bring back most of their lineup and rotation, and are expected to repeat as American League Central champions. In addition, they are projected to find their way atop the league standings.
Without a doubt, the star for the Detroit Tigers last year was third baseman Miguel Cabrera. He won American League MVP last year by becoming the first player to win the Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Last year, he put together an out of the world line of .330/.393/.606, good for 7.836 eq. runs. He is a top flight contact hitter and power hitter, and is expected to remain the top player in the Tigers' lineup. His weakness is that he is not great at third base, but his offense more than makes up for that. He is expected to only regress to 7.734 eq. runs in 2013, showing that he has a chance, albeit a somewhat outside one, of winning back to back triple crowns. On top of Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have another top flight hitter in first baseman Prince Fielder. Last year, Fielder put together a line of .313/.412/.528. He is able to hit for a ton of power, but his OBP is even better than Cabrera's. That kind of line is good for 7.333 eq. runs, which would be by far the best for most teams in baseball. He is expected to regress slightly in 2013 to 6.940 eq. runs, but that still makes him an elite hitter. Like Cabrera, Fielder's real weakness is at defense. However, the offensive production of Fielder and Cabrera more than makes up for the sub-par fielding abilities of these two players. No team in baseball would turn down this one-two punch in the middle of the lineup.
The Tigers' lineup clearly revolves around Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. However, they weren't the only 6+ eq. run players for the Tigers last year. The Tigers had two outfielders also hit for over 6 eq. runs in 2013. In left field, the Tigers will return Andy Dirks. Dirks put together a .322/.370/.487 line last year, good for 6.092 eq. runs. He has significant power, but his real asset is his ability to get on base. While his OBP was not quite as good as Cabrera's or Fielder's, a .370 OBP is nothing to sneeze at. It's well above average and it would fit well at the top of the Tigers' order. He is expected to regress a bit to 5.380 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still a very good number for a supporting player in the lineup. The Tigers will also return center fielder Austin Jackson to the top of the order. He put together a line of .300/.377/.479 last year, showing that like Dirks, he has significant power. However, he is exceptional at getting on base. The fact that the Tigers have four players in their starting lineup with an OBP of .370 last year shows how exceptional their lineup is. He was worth 6.142 eq. runs last year, and is expected to regress a bit to 5.552 eq. runs. That still makes him a well above hitter, especially at a defensive specialty position like center field. He will be a key cog in this starting lineup.
The Tigers will also add two players to the lineup that were not in the lineup last year. At designated hitter, the Tigers will return former catcher Victor Martinez, who was out all of 2012 with a major injury. However, in 2011, he was exceptional with a .330/.380/.470 line, good for 6.107 eq. runs. As with any player coming off a huge injury, Martinez may not ever be the same player. His BABIP indicates a regression to 5.509 eq. runs in 2013, but it could potentially be worse if there are lingering effects from his injury. If not, Martinez remains a significant member of this lineup who will support the other stars in this lineup by getting on base a lot. The Tigers also brought in a right fielder via free agency, Torii Hunter. With the Angels last year, Hunter hit for a .313/.365/.451 line. We have yet another player with a well above average OBP in this lineup, and like the rest of the players with that kind of contact hitting skills in this lineup, he can still hit for power. He was worth 5.631 eq. runs last year, but he did that with an exceptionally high BABIP. That shows he got very lucky in 2012, and he is likely to see big regression in 2013. He is expected to be worth 4.462 eq. runs in 2013, making him an average right fielder at this point in his career. With this kind of lineup, though, an average hitter will not hurt. He will definitely be a supporting member of this lineup.
The rest of the Tigers' lineup will be filled with solid bats. At catcher, the Tigers will return Alex Avila. Last year, he put together a line of .243/.352/.384. Despite a low batting average, Avila has a very good ability to get on base. His power leaves a lot to be desired, but he was still worth 4.743 eq. runs in 2012. He is expected to improve, albeit just a tiny amount, to 4.774 eq. runs in 2013. At a defensive premium position like catcher, Avila is above average and a real plus to this lineup. He is not a star, but he is somebody who will help this lineup. The Tigers will also return second baseman Omar Infante, whom the Tigers acquired last year from the Miami Marlins. Last year, he put together a line of .274/.300/.419, showing he has decent power but a low OBP. He was worth 4.136 eq. runs in 2012, and is expected to improve slightly to 4.257 eq. runs in 2013. Infante is a middle infielder making him a player at a defensive specialty position. While a .300 OBP isn't ideal, it's acceptable as Infante can hit for some power and he does play second base. Finishing up the Tigers' lineup is shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Peralta was once a decent hitting shortstop with some power, but it didn't show much last year as he hit for a .239/.305/.384 line. That is good for 3.892 eq. runs. At a defensive premium position like shortstop, a 3.892 eq. run statistic is acceptable, though not ideal. In addition, this Tigers lineup is full of excellent hitters, so Peralta is essentially a supporting player at the bottom of the lineup. Perhaps he can find some power or get on base at a better rate; he is expected to improve to a 4.258 eq. run player.
One potential weak spot for this team is their bench, which is not deep and does not contain players who could play on an everyday basis. It contains catcher Brayan Pena, infielder Ramon Santiago, utility player Danny Worth, and outfielder Quintin Berry. Santiago is likely the player on the bench who will get the most time, as he will back up Infante and Peralta on the infield. Last year, he put together a line of .206/.283/.272, which is only good for 2.548 eq. runs. He provides value as a defensive player, but as an everyday player, he would hurt any lineup he'd be in. An OBP below .300 is unacceptable, and on top of that, he has extremely little power. As a late inning defensive replacement for Peralta or Cabrera, he'd be fine. As an everyday player, he would bring this lineup down a bit. The Tigers will also return young outfielder Quintin Berry. Last year, he put together a line of .258/.330/.354, which makes him the best hitting player on the bench. That line is good for 4.067 eq. runs, but that is expected to go down to 3.580 eq. runs in 2013. As a fourth outfielder, Berry is fine. However, if there was an injury to an outfielder, the Tigers would probably look elsewhere for a long term replacement.
While the Tigers have an extremely powerful lineup, their pitching staff may be even more valuable. Their ace is Justin Verlander, who won the Cy Young Award in 2011 and competed for it in 2012. He is known as a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 25% of the batters he faced last year. He is also a very good contact pitcher, as he only walked 6.3% of the batters he faced last year and he is an average contact pitcher as he gives up 0.74 ground balls per fly ball. Those numbers all combine for an eq. run against statistic of 3.48 eq. runs per nine innings, which is to be expected of an ace. Verlander will remain one of the top pitchers in the game. However, he doesn't have the lowest eq. runs against statistic on the Tigers in 2013. That would belong to Doug Fister, another strong strikeout pitcher. He struck out 20.4% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 5.5%. However, he is also a well above average contact pitcher, giving up 1.10 ground balls for every fly ball. In all, Fister can be expected to give up 3.22 runs per nine innings. On most teams, he would be the ace of the staff and an argument could be made that he is the ace of this staff. However, with the success Verlander has had in recent years, it is very hard to argue that Verlander is not the ace of this staff. The Tigers will also return an even better strikeout pitcher, Max Scherzer. Last year, Scherzer had a 29.4% strikeout ratio, which is even higher than Verlander's and Fister's. For a starting pitcher, that strikeout rate is sensational. On top of that, Scherzer did not walk that many batters, as he only walked about 7.6% of the batters he faced. He is a below average contact pitcher, as shown by his 0.59 GB / FB ratio, but overall, Scherzer is another pitcher who could be an ace on many teams. He is expected to give up 3.61 runs per nine innings, which is the eq. runs against statistic of a top of the rotation starter.
However, the excellence of the Tigers' pitching staff does not end there. In the offseason, the Tigers resigned free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez, whom they acquired along with Omar Infante in a mid-season trade with the Marlins last season. He is fairly similar to Fister in his stats, as he struck out 20.4% of the batters he faced and walked only 5.9% of the batters he faced. However, he is only slightly above average when it comes to contact pitching, as he gave up 0.89 ground balls for every fly ball last year. In all, Sanchez is expected to give up 3.57 runs per nine innings, making him a solid top of the rotation starter on most teams. The Tigers will also return Rick Porcello, though there are rumors that he could be traded. He is not a great strikeout pitcher, as he only struck out about 13.7% of the batters he faced last year. However, he also only walked 5.6% of the batters faced last year and as a contact pitcher, Porcello is very good. He gave up about 1.16 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is expected to give up 3.71 runs per nine innings. That makes him a solid top of the rotation pitcher, though he will be the fifth starter in this rotation. Overall, the Tigers have one of the best rotations in the game at this point.
However, the Tigers may struggle in the bullpen. There is no clear cut closer on this team. The front runner is Bruce Rondon, a rookie. Rondon has some potential, but after updating his minor league stats to Major League level, Rondon simply isn't expected to be good this year. It's always difficult to project minor league players, but Rondon is expected to strike out about 23.2% of the batters he faces while walking 15.4%. That would make him an average strikeout pitcher and a well below average control pitcher. He is expected to give up 1.15 ground balls per fly ball, but even as a good contact pitcher, he is expected to give up 5.31 runs per nine innings. If that comes to fruition, he will not be the closer for long. Another option is veteran Joaquin Benoit. Benoit is a good strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 29.2% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average control pitcher, as he gave up walks in 7.6% of the opposing plate appearances last year. He is below average as a contact pitcher, giving up only 0.56 ground balls per fly ball last year, but this still makes him a pitcher who is expected to give up 3.66 runs per nine innings. That is significantly better than Rondon, but most teams would prefer a better closer than that. Another option is Phil Coke. Coke is not as good of a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 20.8% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average control pitcher, as he walked 7.4% of the batters he faced. He did pitch well as a control pitcher, though, as he got 0.93 ground balls per fly ball last year. Overall, Coke is expected to give up 3.84 runs per nine innings. Again, most teams would prefer more from the closer position, but given the position Detroit is in right now, Coke might not be a bad option. However, overall, Detroit's bullpen is below average.
The Tigers have an extremely powerful lineup anchored by superstar hitters Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. On top of that, they also have solid supporting players like Andy Dirks, Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante, and Torii Hunter, making this offense the best in the Majors. They also have a great rotation consisting of five potential top of the rotation starters in Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Porcello. They are expected to also have the best pitching staff in the American League. Their bullpen and bench are fairly weak, but those are fairly minor issues for a team of this caliber. They are expected to finish first in the weak American League Central with a 99-63 record.
I'm not particularly happy about it, but the St. Louis Cardinals are projected to be the best team in the National League in 2013. They have a solid all-around lineup and a good pitching staff, putting them above all of the other teams in the National League. Last year was supposed to be a relative down year as the Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Angels and Chris Carpenter to injury. Neither of those players are back in 2013, but their replacements showed last year that they could compete at a very high level even without those two stars.
The most important to the St. Louis Cardinals is likely catcher Yadier Molina. Molina is a defense first catcher, but as a hitter, he is well above average as well. Last year, he hit for a .315/.373/.501 line, showing significant contact and power hitting abilities. For a defense first player at the biggest defense premium position in the game, Molina put together a spectacular season at 6.296 eq. runs. That makes him an elite hitter along as an elite defender. In reality, he is one of the most valuable players in the game, and is expected to continue as one in 2013, as he is expected to be worth 5.946 eq. runs in 2013. The Cardinals' overall best hitter, though, is left fielder Matt Holliday. Holliday is a very similar to player to Molina, as seen by his .295/.379/.497 line last year. He is well above average as both a contact and a power hitter, and provides a huge spark in the middle of the Cardinals' lineup. Last year, he was another elite hitter, as shown by his 6.367 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only to 6.176 eq. runs in 2013. His defense isn't as valuable as Molina's, but his bat would be welcome in any lineup in the Major Leagues. Holliday and Molina made up for the loss of production from Albert Pujols last year and will continue to be stars in this lineup.
However, Molina and Holliday are not the only top flight hitters in this lineup. The Cardinals found some offense from less expected sources last year. For example, some people thought right fielder Carlos Beltran was past his prime and was only going to go down hill. However, he put together a solid line of .269/.346/.495 last year, showing he is a good contact hitter, but also has significant power left. His power is right in line with Molina's and Holliday's, though his contact hitting skills weren't as good last year. Beltran was worth 5.729 eq. runs last year, and his BABIP was actually lower than expected. He is expected to improve to 5.876 eq. runs in 2013. Another unexpected source of power in this lineup came from the new first baseman, Allen Craig. Craig is a versatile player, but he hit like an elite hitter last year. His line was .307/.354/522 last year, which shows he might even have the best power on this team. While he isn't quite as good as Albert Pujols was with the Cardinals, Craig was pretty much the best the Cardinals could hope for in a replacement. He was worth 6.163 eq. runs last year with the bat. He is expected to regress slightly to 5.957 eq. runs in 2013 after signing a huge contract with the Cardinals in the offseason. Craig is one of the better young hitters in the game, and will remain a huge piece in this Cardinals lineup.
The Cardinals' lineup remains strong as we get to the middle tier players. 2011 playoff star, third baseman David Freese is expected to start the year on the injured list, but still play everyday for the Cardinals for the vast majority of the year. Freese isn't known as a star player, but he hit for a .293/.372/.467 line last year, making him another significant piece of this lineup. He was worth 5.925 eq. runs in 2012, making him a well above average hitter. He is expected to regress somewhat to 5.523 eq. runs in 2013, but he still remains a well above average third baseman in the league. His good OBP skills could play well at the top of the lineup, but his power makes him a better middle of the lineup hitter. The Cardinals will also return speedy center fielder Jon Jay. Last year, Jay put together a solid line of .305/.359/.414. He is an above average contact hitter and an average power hitter, and he put together a 5.156 eq. run season last year. He did that with an above average BABIP, however, and he is expected to regress, but only slightly to 4.734 eq. runs in 2013. As a supporting player in the lineup, especially at a defensive premium position, Jay fits the role well. His high OBP would fit very well at the top of the lineup. As star players in a lineup, Freese and Jay would not be great. As supporting players in the lineup, they are pluses.
The rest of the Cardinals' lineup will consist of the middle infielders. Their starting second baseman is expected to be light hitting Daniel Descalso. A light hitter in this lineup is not a terribly big deal because of all of the big bats, but the Cardinals are hoping he can put together a better line than the .227/.303/.324 he put together last year. He is well below average as a contact hitter and has virtually no power, as shown by his 3.323 eq. run statistic last year. As a bottom of the lineup hitter and defensive specialist, Descalso won't kill a lineup. However, he won't add much either. The starting shortstop was supposed to be Rafael Furcal, but an injury will bench him for the entire year. Replacing him is young Pete Kozma, who put together a spectacular line after being brought up the Major League level last year. His line seemed rather flukey at .303/.373/.506, as he has never been a great hitter in the minor leagues. He was worth 6.348 eq. runs last year, and that is unlikely to last. There are a few players who seem to just get it at the Major League level even if they can't at the minor league level; the more likely scenario is that he is a more marginal everyday player than anything. Based on BABIP alone, he is expected to be worth 5.529 eq. runs this year, but if last year was a fluke, he will likely fall even further. He still seems to be a Major League player, though, and will provide value somehow for this team. It's just that they didn't expect him to be the everyday shortstop to begin the year.
The Cardinals will also have an intriguing bench to start the year, made up of catcher Tony Cruz, first baseman Matt Adams, infielders Matt Carpenter and Ty Wigginton, and outfielder Shane Robinson. Matt Adams is one of the team's better prospects, and it showed as he put together a Major League equivalent line of .290/.319/.522 last year. He has a below average OBP, but his power is significant and will be valuable to this team. Even with a good first baseman in Allen Craig to begin the year, the Cardinals think he is valuable enough to contribute significantly to this team. He will likely be a starter before long, with Allen Craig moving to the outfield. Matt Carpenter turned out to be a pleasant surprise last year, as he put together a .294/.365/.463 line. That was good for 5.752 eq. runs, and he will get a lot of playing time. That kind of line does not play on the bench, though he is expected to regress to 5.368 eq. runs in 2013. It's too bad that he doesn't play shortstop or second base particularly well; if he did, he would be an everyday player on this team. He will likely be the top batter off the bench in a pinch hitting situation. The Cardinals also decided to bring in a good bat in Ty Wigginton. Wigginton isn't the player he once was, as shown by his .235/.314/.375 line last year. He showed below average contact and power hitting skills last year, but he is still capable of getting a few big hits. He was worth about 3.699 eq. runs last year, and is expected to improve, albeit slightly, to 4.197 eq. runs in 2013. It would really be hard to find a better bench in the Majors than the Cardinals' have, though most of the players (Adams, Carpenter, Wigginton) are not defensive premium players.
The Cardinals have a very good lineup, but they will also return a solid rotation. The ace of the staff will be Adam Wainwright, who just signed a lucrative long term deal with the Cardinals. He is a very good pitcher, and above average in all three of the peripheral statistics. He struck out 22.1% of the batters he faced last year, walked 6.3% of the batters he faced last year, and got 1.04 ground balls per fly ball last year. Overall, that is good for approximately 3.34 eq. runs per nine innings in 2013. That makes him an ace and a solid fixture at the top of the rotation. However, he's not the only top of the rotation type starter returning to the Cardinals' rotation. They will also return Jaime Garcia, who struggled a bit with injuries last year. He isn't quite as good of a strikeout pitcher, striking out only 19% of the batters he faced last year. However, he also only walked 5.8% of the batters he faced last year, and as a contact pitcher he is excellent. He got 1.21 ground balls for every fly ball last year, an excellent ratio. He is expected to give up 3.27 runs per nine innings, which would make him a top of the rotation starter on this team and an ace on many teams. They will also return Jake Westbrook. Westbrook is definitely not a strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 14.1% of the batters he faced last year. He is a decent control pitcher, though not great given how few batters he struck out last year. He walked 6.9% of the batters he faced last year. His real strength is as a contact pitcher, though, as he got 1.39 ground balls per fly ball last year. Because of that, he is a solid middle of the rotation starter and give up 3.70 runs per nine innings.
The Cardinals will also return the bottom two pitchers in the rotation. They will return former all star Lance Lynn, a strong strikeout pitcher. He struck out 24.2% of the batters he faced last year, an extremely high number. However, he does also walk quite a few, as he walked 8.6% of the batters he faced last year. He is an average contact pitcher, as he gave up 0.81 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is a decent and probably slightly above average middle of the rotation pitcher, as he is expected to give up 4.00 eq. runs per nine innings last year. The Cardinals will have a hole in the rotation due to the fact that Kyle Lohse left the Cardinals via free agency and Chris Carpenter is out for the year. The expected fifth starter will then be Joe Kelly. Kelly isn't a spectacular strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 16.4% of the batters he faced last year. He isn't a spectacular control pitcher either, as he walked 7.9% of the batters he faced last year; his ratio isn't that great. However, he makes up for a lot of it as a contact pitcher, where he gets 1.09 ground balls for every fly ball. He is expected to give up 4.12 runs per nine innings, making him a slightly below average middle of the rotation starter and above average bottom of the rotation starter. In all, the Cardinals have a decent rotation, though it is top-heavy. They have two potential aces, two good middle of the rotation pitchers, and one good bottom of the rotation pitcher on this team.
The Cardinals also have a good bullpen. It is led by closer Jason Motte, a fireballing closer. He is a great strikeout pitcher, striking out 30.8% of the batters he faced last year. His value is also helped as he is a good control pitcher, walking out only 6.1% of the batters he faced last year. As a contact pitcher, he is slightly below average, only getting 0.69 ground balls per fly ball last year. However, he is expected to give up 3.02 runs per nine innings, making him a solid, above average closer. He provides a lot of value for the Cardinals. The setup man, Mitchell Boggs, is also a solid pitcher, though not at the level of Motte. Boggs struck out a below average amount as a reliever last year, 19.6% of the batters he faced. He also walked a moderate number of batters last year, approximately 7.1% of the batters he faced. His real asset as a pitcher is as a contact pitcher, where he gets 1.14 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.61 runs per nine innings. That would be below average for a closer, but as a setup pitcher, he is a good pitcher. The Cardinals will also return young reliever Trevor Rosenthal to the bullpen. he is a very good strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 28.1% of the batters he faced last year. As a control pitcher, he is okay, as he walked 7.9% of the batters he faced. However, like seemingly all of the Cardinals, he is a very good contact pitcher, getting 1.14 ground balls per fly ball last year. He will be a very important piece to the end of the Cardinals' bullpen this year. It will be hard to come back against the Cardinals with this end of the bullpen.
The Cardinals have a very good lineup with many top hitters, including Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, David Freese, and Carlos Beltran. They will also return a good rotation with top pitchers including Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. Their rotation is strong, but it isn't elite like the Tigers'. However, they make up for a lot of it with a very good bench and bullpen. The Cardinals are expected to succeed very well this year, finishing first in the National League Central with a 96-66 record.
No comments:
Post a Comment