Last year, the Angels were a trendy pick to make the World Series. They made a huge free agent signing, had a few young players, and a rotation that looked ready for the postseason. Their star rookie had a spectacular season, the returning players didn't disappoint much, the free agent started out slow but finished alright, and their rotation held up reasonably well. However, a slow start and a tough division kept them out of the playoffs. Will they be able to bypass a slow start and glide into the playoffs in 2013? I believe so.
The Angels' star last year was rookie left fielder Mike Trout. Trout is an all-around great player. He is a top fielder, he is a speedy player, and his batting line was spectacular last year. He put together an unbelievable line of .326/.399/.564 last year that saw him finish second place in the American League MVP vote. He has a ton of power and a great ability to get on base, and even as a rookie last year, he was one of the best hitters in the game. He was worth 7.475 eq. runs last year, though his BABIP was quite high. Even if that regresses a bit as expected, he is expected to be worth 6.604 eq. runs in 2013. He is still a young player and could still improve, but he is unlikely to match the numbers he put together last year. The player who was supposed to star for the Angels last year was first baseman Albert Pujols. Only Albert Pujols could disappoint with a line of .285/.343/.516, but he did last year. He was expected to be the best hitter in baseball but wasn't even the best hitter on the team. However, he is still an elite hitter. He was worth 5.896 eq. runs in 2012 and his BABIP was below his average. He is expected to improve that number to 6.279 eq. runs in 2013, and if he does, the middle of the Angels' lineup will have at least two elite hitters.
I say at least two elite hitters because the Angels made another huge splash in free agency in the offseason. They acquired the top hitter on the market, former Ranger right fielder Josh Hamilton. Over the past few years, Hamilton has been one of the top power hitters in the game. Last year, he started off the season at an incredible pace and slowed down considerably after the all-star break. Even so, he put together an excellent line of .285/.354/.577 last year. The signing of Hamilton was somewhat risky because of Hamilton's past and the fact that the Rangers questioned his effort last year. However, his line last year shows he is elite. On top of that, his BABIP was expected, meaning he didn't get lucky or unlucky last year. As a matter of fact, even in a lineup with Trout and Pujols, Hamilton is expected to be the top hitter on the Angels, being worth 6.768 eq. runs. As if the Angels didn't have enough power in the lineup already, they return power hitting designated hitter Mark Trumbo. Trumbo is seen as a high power, but low contact guy and that would be shown with his .268/.317/.491 line last year. A .317 OBP isn't anything to write home about, but a .491 slugging percentage shows he can hit the ball out of the ballpark and hard into the gaps at a good rate. He was worth 5.160 eq. runs in 2012 and is expected to regress a little bit to 4.812 eq. runs in 2013. Still, very few teams would turn down a bat like Trumbo in the lineup. If he is used correctly, as a fifth or sixth hitter in the lineup, he could be extremely effective since OBP is not a big deal at that part of the lineup.
Unfortunately for the Angels, the lineup falls off a bit after those four players. The remaining infield can hit alright, but at nowhere near the ability of Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, or Trumbo. The expected second baseman for the Angels is Howie Kendrick. He put together a line of .287/.325/.400 last year. That is not a bad line for a second baseman, and it shows he is an average hitter. He has some contact ability and some power, but he isn't a spectacular second baseman. He was worth about 4.399 eq. runs last year, and is expected to improve slightly to 4.445 eq. runs in 2013. The starting shortstop, Erick Aybar, is a very similar hitter. He hit for a .290/.324/.416 line last year, showing he is an average hitter, and perfectly suitable for a middle infielder. He has some ability to get on base and some power. He was worth about 4.534 eq. runs in 2012. He is expected to decline slightly in 2013 due to a higher than average BABIP in 2012, but only to about 4.382 eq. runs. Finishing out the infield will be third baseman Alberto Callaspo, who is probably the weakest hitter in this infield. As a third baseman, more is expected from the bat for Callaspo, as he hit for a .252/.331/.361 line last year. He has a decent ability to get on base, but he has virtually no power. In this lineup, a player like Callaspo isn't a huge liability as he was worth about 4.148 eq. runs last year. He is expected to improve to 4.516 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still relatively low for a third baseman.
The starting catcher for the Angels this year is Chris Iannetta. As a catcher, he had a decent, though unspectacular, line of .240/.332/.398 last year, good for about 4.507 eq. runs. A .730 OPS is not bad for a catcher, and he was worth about 4.507 eq. runs last year. He is expected to regress a slight amount to about 4.304 eq. runs. As a bottom of the lineup type hitter, Iannetta is perfectly fine. If he is expected to be much more, he will be disappointing. By far, the weakest part of the lineup is the expected starting center fielder Pete Bourjos. He was disappointing last year at the plate, though he is a solid fielder and one of the speediest player in the name. He has earned the nickname "Speedy Petey". However, his line last year was .220/.291/.315. He has virtually no power and no ability to get on base despite the speed. He was only worth 3.036 eq. runs last year though he had a very low BABIP. If he can improve that as expected, he is expected to be worth about 3.394 eq. runs. That is still unacceptable, but he is still a young player and could improve.
Unlike most good teams, the Angels have a very weak bench in 2013. It will consist of catcher Hank Conger, infielders Andrew Romine and Bill Hall, and outfielder Vernon Wells. I have a 2010 Baseball America handbook in my room that lists the top prospects for each team. For the Angels, the second best prospect was Mike Trout. The top prospect: catcher Hank Conger. Conger has not lived up to the billing and is a pure backup catcher at this point. He put together a line of .205/.278/.338 last year, showing he can't get on base at a good rate and has virtually no power (and I'm not just saying that because he passed me when he was signing autographs in Tempe last year). He was only worth 3.010 eq. runs last year, though his BABIP was exceptionally low. He is expected to improve to 3.777 eq. runs this year, and if he does that, he may be able to add value off the bench. However, the most well known name on this Angels' bench is Vernon Wells, who was acquired from the Blue Jays a few years ago for Mike Napoli, in one of the most lopsided trades in recent baseball history. He was signed to a huge long term deal for the Blue Jays, and fell off almost immediately afterwards. The Angels acquired him and last year, he put together a terribly line of .230/.279/.403. He still has a very slight amount of power, but he has trouble getting on base. He was worth only about 3.618 eq. runs last year and with the money they are paying him, the Angels want much better. His BABIP was very low last year, and he is expected to improve to 4.470 eq. runs in 2013. Still, though, Trout is perfectly capable of playing center field, and the Angels are choosing to start Pete Bourjos over Vernon Wells in the outfield. He has fallen very far.
The top pitcher for the Angels this year is expected to be Jered Weaver. However, I'm not all that impressed with Weaver's stats. He struck out relatively few (19.2%), though he also walked very few batters (6.1%). On top of that, though, he is a very weak contact pitcher, as shown by his GB / FB ratio. He gave up only 0.58 ground balls for every fly ball, meaning he could give up a lot of big hits. He is expected to give up about 4.09 runs per nine innings, which isn't bad, but fewer runs are expected to be given up by a top pitcher. Another top pitcher for the Angels this year is expected to be C.J. Wilson. Like Weaver, he strikes out only about an average number of batters, at 20% last year. Unlike Weaver, though, he walks way too many batters, as shown by his 10.5% rate last year. He does make up for some of that with a 1.00 GB / FB ratio, but he is still expected to give up 4.56 runs per nine innings. As a bottom of the rotation starter, that would be acceptable. However, as a number two pitcher, that is too much.
The rest of the rotation for the Angels is going to be new to the franchise. The best of the bunch is former Phillie and Dodger Joe Blanton. Blanton is not a flashy name, and was an afterthought in Philadelphia's all star rotation. However, his underlying stats were nothing but solid last year. he struck out about 20.6% of the batters he faced while walking only 4.2%. He is an average contact pitcher with a 0.81 GB / FB ratio. Because of his extremely low walk percentage, he is only expected to give up about 3.26 runs per nine innings, making him perhaps the best pitcher in the Angels' rotation. The Angels traded away corner outfielder/first baseman Kendrys Morales to the Mariners in the offseason since Josh Hamilton took the last remaining spot where he could play. In return, they received Jason Vargas, who has been a dependable pitcher for the Mariners in the past few years. He is not an overpowering pitcher, as shown by his 15.9% strikeout percentage. His walk percentage is pretty good, though, at 6.2% and he is only slightly below average as a contact pitcher, as shown by his 0.69 GB / FB ratio. He is expected to give up about 4.25 runs per nine innings, which is perfectly acceptable for a bottom of the rotation starter. Once a top prospect with the Atlanta Braves, Tommy Hanson has suffered with injuries and lack of control. He was traded to the Angels in the offseason, and he is not the pitcher he was expected to be. He had a decent strikeout rate at 21.2%, but walked too many batters (9.3%) to reap any benefits from his high strikeout rate. As a contact pitcher, he was below average as shown by his 0.66 GB / FB rate, and because of all of this, he is expected to give up 4.59 runs per nine innings. As a bottom of the rotation starter, that is satisfactory. However, much more is expected of Hanson.
One of the most pleasant surprises for the Angels last year was closer Ernesto Frieri who saved 23 games with a 2.32 ERA last year. However, I expect regression from him this year, barring significantly better control. He struck out a very high number of the batters he faced last year at 36.4%, but walked too many at 11.2%. On top of that, he only gets 0.36 ground balls for every fly ball. Eventually, some of the routine fly balls will become home runs and well-hit doubles. A better option to close games for the Angels is free agent signing Sean Burnett. The Angels seem to have fallen into the trap of putting a high strikeout pitcher as a closer, and Burnett is not a strong strikeout pitcher (23.9%). However, he only walked 5% of the batters he faced last year while getting an exceptional GB / FB ratio (1.42). While Frieri is expected to give up 4.18 runs per nine innings, Burnett is only expected to give up 2.44 runs per nine innings. Burnett is a top reliever in the game, and will provide a lot of value for the Angels. The Angels also expect to use Kevin Jepsen late in games. Jepsen strikes out an average amount of batters (21.4%) and walks a fairly low number of batters (6.7%). He isn't as good as Burnett in either of these categories, but both of those numbers are acceptable. However, he does give up a lot of fly balls, as shown by his 0.54 GB / FB ratio. He is expected to give up about 4.10 runs per nine innings, which shows that as a pitcher, Jepsen is about as good as Frieri, but still far below Burnett.
The Angels have a very dangerous lineup consisting of the best young hitter in the game (Mike Trout) and two of the top veteran hitters in the game (Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton). It is hard to find a better 1-2-3 punch in the game than those three. The rest of their lineup is satisfactory, if not spectacular, making the Angels' overall lineup one of the better lineups in the game. Their rotation isn't bad either, though it isn't much better than average. Their lack of depth and shaky bullpen may cause some concern, but the Angels are still expected to make the playoffs. They are expected to finish second in the American League West, as a wild card, and with an 84-78 record.
Two years ago, the Brewers decided to go all-in and sell off almost all of their top prospects to try to win in 2011 and 2012. Brett Lawrie was traded for Shaun Marcum. Then Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress were traded to the Royals for Zack Greinke. Francisco Rodriguez was acquired in the middle of the 2011 season. This all worked to some extent as the Brewers made it to the NLCS in 2011 for the first time since 1982. However, they never made it to the World Series. Now, all of these names are gone. Marcum is with the Mets, Greinke is with the Dodgers, and Francisco Rodriguez is gone. Still, the Brewers' offense was able to keep them in many games in 2013, and led them to a surge in the second half that saw them threaten for a playoff run. They did fall short, but they should continue to compete in 2013 with a young rotation and the best producing offense in the National League.
The star of the Brewers' offense is left fielder Ryan Braun. His availability for the entire season is not well known because of the
The Brewers saw an improvement from catcher Jonathan Lucroy last year. He went from being a nice catcher to have to being one of the top offensive and defensive catchers in the game. He put together a line of .320/.368/.513, and was likely a flukey injury away from being in the all star game for the first time in his career. He was worth over 6.328 eq. runs last year, and that makes him an elite hitter. His BABIP was higher than normal and he is expected to regress to a 5.900 eq. run player, but a catcher who can put that kind of offensive production together is a big plus to any lineup. Also returning, though on the injured list to begin the year, is first baseman Corey Hart. He put together a .270/.334/.507 line last year, and that was good for 5.635 eq. runs. That is very good, especially since he is only a medium threat in this lineup full of dangerous hitters. He will start the year on the injured list, but is expected to be back by May so he will still play a big role in this lineup. He is able to get on base at a decent rate, but he is best used as a power hitter in the middle of the lineup. He may go through some regression in 2013, but he is still expected to be worth 5.521 eq. runs in 2013.
The remainder of the outfield for the Brewers contains two players who put together some surprising seasons last year. In right field, the Brewers will return Norichika Aoki. Last year was his first year in the US, and he exceeded expectations by hitting .288/.355/.433. His high OBP makes him a solid lead-off hitter and he has a little bit of power to boot. Last year, he was expected to be a fifth outfielder but he put together a 5.266 eq. run year, a surprisingly high number. He is expected to regress a little bit from a 5.635 eq. run player to a 5.521 eq. run player, but even if he does, Aoki will be an important piece in this lineup. The starting center fielder this year is expected to be Carlos Gomez. Gomez was once a top prospect, but until last year, he was seen as a defense and speed first center fielder. Gomez put together a line of .260/.305/.463 last year, showing more power than expected, though his OBP is exceptionally low for somebody with his speed. He needs to learn to take more walks and avoid swinging for the fences if he wants to take his game to the next level. However, he was still worth 4.659 eq. runs last year, making him yet another valuable piece to this Brewers lineup. 4.659 eq. runs isn't exceptional, but for a defense first centerfielder, that is pretty good. He is even expected to improve slightly to 4.714 eq. runs in 2013.
The most disappointing player on the Brewers last year was former all star second baseman Rickie Weeks. Last year, he was far below the Mendoza line for the first half of the year, but he finished with a respectable .230/.328/.400 line. Even when he was struggling to get hits, he was able to get on base at a decent rate with the walk. However, he has potential to be much better. He has some power and a good ability to get on base, and if he lives up to his potential, he could be a huge piece to this lineup. He was worth about 4.453 eq. runs last year and is expected to improve to a 4.764 eq. run player in 2013. Finishing out this lineup is shortstop Jean Segura, whom the Brewers acquired in the Zack Greinke trade last year. He has a ton of potential, but struggled in his first month in the Majors last year. He improved a bit by the end of the year, as shown by his .258/.315/.325 line. He didn't show much power at the Major League level, but did show an okay ability to get on base. Considering the Brewers were running out journeymen like Cesar Izturis, Cody Ransom, and Edwin Maysonet to play shortstop for much of the year last year, Segura is expected to be an improvement. He was worth 3.544 eq. runs last year, and while he did it with a reasonable BABIP last year, he is expected to improve. He will be given many chances to improve, but the Brewers do have an option on the bench if he does not.
The Brewers' bench is, for the most part, fairly young and isn't expected to play a huge role on offense with their powerful lineup. However, there is some talent on the bench. It is expected to consist of catcher Martin Maldonado, infielders Taylor Green, Jeff Bianchi, and Alex Gonzalez, and outfielder Logan Schafer. Maldonado returns after a decent rookie year that saw him take over the backup role with the Brewers and secure a spot on the roster. He hit for a .266/.321/.408 line, which is very good for a backup catcher seen primarily as a defensive specialist. He will probably regress a bit at the plate, from a 4.403 eq. run player to a 4.269 eq. run player, but he provides a lot of value as a backup catcher. Taylor Green and Alex Gonzalez are expected to share playing time at first base to begin the year until Corey Hart is ready to play. Taylor Green has been a disappointing Major League player, as shown by his .207/.266/.340 career line. He needs to improve his OBP if he wants a chance at significant playing time. He had an opportunity to usurp the first base job when Mat Gamel got injured last year and again when Hart and Gamel got injured this year, but has not come close to taking the job over. Until this year, Alex Gonzalez was a shortstop only. He was the Brewers' starting shortstop last year until a season ending injury in May. He is up there in years, and his offensive production has shown it. In the last two years, he put together a .243/.277/.383 line. As a backup middle infielder, that isn't terrible, but as a starting first baseman, that's bad. He was worth 3.397 eq. runs last year and is expected to be around the same this year (3.359 eq. runs). The Brewers will be looking forward to Hart's return.
The Brewers' offense is expected to be the best in the game. However, it is the Brewers' young rotation that will determine their fate. The Brewers will return three veteran pitchers and two very young pitchers. The top pitcher in the Brewers' staff is Yovani Gallardo, but his underlying stats tell a different story. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, striking out 23.7% of the batters he faced last year. However, his walk rate (9.4%) is way too high and he is only an average contact pitcher (0.91 GB / FB ratio). He has been able to outperform his peripheral stats in recent years, but it's a dangerous line when your peripherals are much worse than your more well known stats. He is expected to give up 4.1 runs per nine innings, not bad for a middle of the rotation starter, but not good for a top of the rotation starter. Call me crazy, but I think the ace of this staff is a younger and lesser known Marco Estrada who is able to strike out batters at a higher rate (25.4%) while keeping his walk rate much lower (5.2%). He is not a great contact pitcher as shown by his 0.53 GB / FB ratio, but he has been able to put together a lower expected eq. runs against stat than Gallardo in each of the last two years. In 2013, he is expected to give up 3.44 runs per nine innings, which would be good for a top of the rotation starter. The Brewers will also return a starter who missed most of 2012 due to injury, Chris Narveson. Narveson has struggled to be anything better than a bottom of the rotation starter, and that is what is expected in 2013. In 2011 and 2012, he struck out only 17.7% of the batters he faced while walking far too many (9.3%). He is also a below average contact pitcher, only getting about 0.73 ground balls for ever fly ball. Because of all of this, he is expected to be a below average bottom of the rotation starter, giving up about 4.78 runs per nine innings.
The rest of the Brewers' rotation will consist of less proven starters who showed some success in 2013. For a while last year, Mike Fiers was in the running for rookie of the year in the National League. He was sporting an ERA below 2 for a short time, and his underlying stats were showing that he was that good. He was never seen as a top prospect, and he struggled a bit to end the year, but was still an overall pleasant surprise last year. It is unknown if he can continue that surprise, but he strikeout (25.1%) and walk (6.7%) rates show that he is a very good pitcher. He is not a good contact pitcher, getting only 0.50 ground balls for every fly ball, but Fiers is still expected to give up only 3.85 runs per nine innings. Most scouts see his ceiling as a number five pitcher, but his underlying stats tell a different story. As with many situations, it appears to be a battle of stats and scouts to determine his future. Unlike Fiers, Wily Peralta has been deemed a top prospect in the Brewers' organization. In limited time with the Brewers last year, Peralta was a decent strikeout pitcher (20.4%) and a good contact pitcher (1.24 GB / FB ratio), but he needs to work on his control if he wants to take his game to the next level. He walked 9.7% of the batters he faced last year, and that prevented him from being an even better pitcher. Even so, he is expected to give up about 4.04 runs per nine innings, decent for a middle to bottom of the rotation pitcher. He is expected to be better as time goes on.
The Brewers struggled so mightily in 2012 primarily because of its bullpen. While they revamped much of its bullpen, the closer will remain the same. It will be John Axford, who disappointed last year and blew too many saves. He is a great strikeout pitcher, striking out about 30% of the batters he faced last year. However, that was more than offset by his futility at keeping the ball in the strike zone, as shown by his 12.6% walk rate. When he is on, he is a very good closer, but he struggles too often to be depended on. He is expected to give up 4.35 runs per nine innings, which is way too much for a closer. A better option would be a guy who looked like a career Minor Leaguer, but who made it to the Majors last year in Jim Henderson. Henderson broke out in the Minors and his success carried over to the Majors where he had an even higher strikeout rate (34.4%) than Axford's. His walk rate was way too high (9.9%) and his contact pitching was slightly below normal (0.78 GB / FB ratio), but his high strikeout rate and slightly lower walk rate made his expected eq. runs against stat a bit lower than Axford's at 3.52. He is expected to be an anchor in this bullpen this year. Perhaps the best option for closer in the Brewers' bullpen, though, is newcomer Burke Badenhop, whom the Brewers acquired in the offseason from the Tampa Bay Rays. He is the worst strikeout pitcher in the Brewers' bullpen with a 16% strikeout rate, but his walk rate is phenomenal at 4.6%. He is also a well above average contact pitcher, getting 1.17 ground balls for every fly ball last year. He is expected to give up about 3.28 runs per nine innings this year, which is the lowest in the Brewers' bullpen.
The Brewers' offense is full of firepower with guys like Braun, Ramirez, Lucroy, Hart, Gomez, Aoki, and Weeks in it. However, the $64,000 question for this team is their pitching. They no longer have Zack Greinke or even Shaun Marcum and they are depending on youth to fill out their rotation. Players like Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta will need to step up if the Brewers wish to go far this year. The Brewers' bullpen was a main cause of their troubles last year, and they revamped that bullpen. The young pitchers succeeded in the second half of the year last year, and if they continue that, they will be a playoff team. They are projected to finish the season third in the National League Central, as a wild card, with an 87-75 record.
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