For the first nine years of this franchise's existence, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were the embarrassment of baseball. They attempted to build buzz by signing well known players who were well over the hill like Jose Canseco, Wade Boggs, and Greg Vaughn. However, in 2008, the team changed its name to the Tampa Bay Rays, and the franchise turned around. Despite being one of the least followed teams in the Majors (they consistently finish in the bottom of attendance in the MLB), they consistently find a way to compete in the most competitive division in Major League Baseball. Occasionally, they need to get rid of higher paid players (like Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir) and they are replaced with younger players who make fans forget about the older players. However, their offense has a few holes that will preclude them from finishing in the top half of the AL East this year.
The face of the franchise for the Tampa Bay Rays is third baseman Evan Longoria, one of the best young hitters in baseball. In an injury shortened year last year, Longoria hit for a .289/.369/.527 line, showing he can get on base at a very good rate and with significant power. He is the essential bat in the middle of the Rays' lineup, and even in an injury shortened year last year, Longoria hit for 6.497 eq. runs per nine innings. He is expected to regress a tiny bit in 2013, but even so, he is expected to hit for 6.282 eq. runs, which still shows that he is an elite hitter in baseball. Also returning is lesser known and ultra-versatile right fielder Ben Zobrist. He can play all three outfield positions and second base, but he does it as one of the better hitters in baseball. Last year, he hit at a .270/.377/.471 clip, showing he is a very good contact hitter with some pop. He hit for at least 20 home runs in three of the last four years and for at least a .350 OBP in three of the last four years. That is an important combination, making him a very good option at the top of the order for the Rays. He hit for 6.060 eq. runs in 2012, and is expected to stay around that mark in 2013 with an expected 5.952 eq. runs in 2013.
Unfortunately for the Rays, the talent in the lineup falls significantly from there. After Longoria and Zobrist, the top threat on offense is left fielder Matt Joyce. Matt Joyce put together a respectable line of .241/.341/.429 last year, but as a left fielder, more should be expected. His OBP is very good, but his power is probably less than average for a left fielder. He hit for 4.969 eq. runs last year while hitting for a .281 BABIP. Since his BABIP is below league average and his average, he can be considered unlucky last year, and he is expected to hit for a few more eq. runs last year, at 5.118 expected eq. runs in 2013. Also returning after a brief stint as a free agent is designated hitter Luke Scott. Scott is a below average designated hitter, hitting at a .229/.285/.439 clip last year. It is wrong to think that is acceptable; the .285 OBP in particular is underwhelming. He did get a bit unlucky last year at a .259 BABIP, but last year, he hit for 4.070 eq. runs. For a guy whose lone job is to hit, that is unacceptable. Even if his BABIP increases to around the league average, he can only be expected to hit for 4.509 eq. runs, which would make him a bottom of the order hitter for most good teams. With players like Matt Joyce and Luke Scott having to play significant roles for the Rays, their offense is going to struggle in 2013.
Two other players will return to this Rays lineup, but neither are expected to provide much on offense. As a matter of fact, these players may be better suited to be on the bench. One is starting center fielder Desmond Jennings, who is expected to lead off for the Rays. He has significant speed, but Jennings is the prime example of a player who has speed but only an average OBP. Last year, he put together a line of .246/.314/.388. He has very little power and his OBP is only average, meaning that he is at best a bottom of the order starter. Lead off hitters should be able to get on base at least 33%-35% of the time so that the power hitters can bring them in. With a lead off hitter not getting on that often, Longoria and Zobrist may struggle to pad their RBI numbers and, more importantly, their team's runs scored. The other returning piece to the Rays' lineup is catcher Jose Molina. Like his brothers, Molina is a very good defensive catcher. Lucky for him, he is at one position where defense sometimes trumps offense. His line last year was .233/.286/.355, which was good for 3.297 eq. runs. He has virtually no power and is very poor at getting on base. His asset is defense, and as a hitter, he is terrible. He is best placed on the bench, but on an average or below average team, his defense could make him good enough to hit ninth in the order.
The rest of the Rays' lineup is new to this team. The middle infield, as a matter of fact, played for the Toronto Blue Jays last year. Starting at second base will be Kelly Johnson, who has always been a middling player, save for a big run a few years back. Johnson put together a line of .224/.313/.365 line last year. Johnson has never been a great average hitter, but he has been able to put together some power in the past. Last year, though, he hit for a .365 slug %, showing virtually all of his power was gone. As a second baseman, he can still survive, and in this weak lineup, he is an average hitter. Still, though, Johnson would probably be a utility player in an average or good lineup. The starting shortstop is Yunel Escobar, who put together an even weaker line last year. He hit for a .253/.300/.344 line last year, for a pathetic .644 OPS and a 3.443 eq. run statistic. He did get a little unlucky last year and is expected to increase that to 3.832 eq. runs. However, in a good lineup, Escobar is a bench player. He can field fairly well, but his days of being an effective hitter seem to be over. Perhaps the player who was most disappointing last year who will start for the Rays is James Loney, the first baseman. Unlike Molina, Johnson, and Escobar, Loney does not play at a position that requires great defense. Usually, first base is an offense-first position. His line last year, though, was a pathetic .249/.293/.336, good for a .629 OPS and a 3.251 eq. run statistic. He seemed to get a bit unlucky last year, but even with a regressed BABIP, he is only expected to hit for 3.690 eq. runs. With Johnson, Escobar, and even Molina, good lineups would place them on the bench. With Loney, even bad lineups should put him on the bench or in the minors. He has virtually no power and his OBP was below .300 last year. That means he has no value to an offense.
The bench players for the Rays do not provide much depth. The bench is made up of catcher Jose Lobaton, first baseman Shelley Duncan, infielder Sean Rodriguez, and utility player Ryan Roberts. Lobaton will need to play a big role for the Rays, given the weakly hitting starting catcher, Jose Molina. However, his offense is bad as well, as seen by his .222/.323/.317 line last year. He has even less power than Molina, but there is a glimmer of hope shown by his okay .323 OBP. If he can continue to get on base at that rate, he will continue to get his playing time. Shelley Duncan will also have a chance to dethrone James Loney from the starting first base role. However, he isn't significantly better at the bat, hitting for a .203/.288/.388 line last year. He needs to get on base at a much higher rate than .288 to be a realistic choice to play first base. Ryan Roberts, the former third baseman for the Arizona Diamondbacks, may also have a chance to take over the role at first base. However, Roberts' line last year, .235/.296/.360, isn't much better than Loney's or Duncan's, and he only hit for about 3.515 eq. runs last year. Sean Rodriguez is the utility infielder for the Rays, and though Johnson and Escobar are weak options in the middle of the infielder, he really isn't more than a utility infielder. Last year, he hit for a .213/.281/.326 line, making him a backup infielder at best and a minor league infielder for most teams.
The Rays' saving grace is their pitching, which, as per usual, is expected to be very good this year. The ace of this staff is a true ace, as shown by his Cy Young award last year. David Price returns at the top of the rotation, and he excels at all three major underlying stats I look at in determining a pitcher's worth. He strikes out nearly a quarter (24.5%) of the batters he faced. He only walked 7.1% of the batters he faced, which is excellent given how many he's struck out. And as a contact pitcher, he gets 1.14 ground balls for every fly ball he gives up. He is expected to give up about 3.22 runs per nine innings, making him an elite pitcher. The Rays actually have two other pitchers similar to Price, though they are seen as bottom of the rotation starters. Alex Cobb returns and is a pitcher similar to Price. He doesn't strike out as many as price (18.6%), but his walk rate is about the same (7%) and he has an extremely high GB / FB ratio (1.45). He is expected to give up 3.29 runs per nine innings. If he is able to keep up these underlying stats, Cobb will soon be another top pitcher in the game. Also returning for the Rays is Jeff Niemann, who is probably even more similar to Price than Cobb was, albeit in limited playing time. Niemann struck out 21.8% of the batters he faced while only walking 7.7%. As a contact pitcher, he is also excellent, giving up 1.14 GB for every FB last year. He is also expected to only give up 3.62 runs per nine innings, making him a solid middle of the rotation starter.
The rest of the rotation is made up of young players who have more experience in the Major Leagues. Jeremy Hellickson returns, and he is more of a contact pitcher than anybody else in the rotation. Unfortunately, he only gets 0.73 ground balls for every fly ball. In addition to the fact that he isn't a great contact pitcher, he doesn't strike out many (16.7%) and he walks too many (8%). He is expected to give up 4.55 runs per nine innings, which is okay for a bottom of the rotation starter. Most teams would prefer a pitcher who would give up less at the bottom of the rotation, but 4.55 runs per nine innings is satisfactory. Matt Moore, the other pitcher in this rotation, is expected to give up even more runs per nine innings (4.83 runs per nine innings). That makes him a bottom of the rotation starter. He struck out a good amount of batters last year (23.1%) but he did it while walking way too many (10.7%). As a contact pitcher, he isn't very good either, giving up 0.61 ground balls for every fly ball. He is a young pitcher and has a chance to improve, but at this point in his career, he is a clear bottom of the rotation starter.
The best part of this Rays' team is their bullpen. Veteran closer Fernando Rodney is one of the top closers in the game. He strikes out 27% of the batters he faces while only walking 5.3%. On top of that, he got 1.38 ground balls for every fly ball last year. This makes him an elite closer, expected to give up about 2.31 runs per nine innings. It is uncertain that he can continue at this rate, but even a slight slip in these stats would make him a very good closer. Set-up man Joel Peralta is even better at striking out batters, striking out nearly a third (31.8%) of the batters he faced last year while walking only 6.4% of the batters he faced. As a contact pitcher, he is bad, only getting 0.44 ground balls for every fly ball, but he is still only expected to give up 3.32 runs per nine innings, making him a spectacular reliever. If Rodney slips, though, the best option to close will likely better set-up man Jake McGee. McGee is even better than Rodney and Peralta at striking out batters (34.4%) and not walking them (5.2%). His contact pitching rates are average as well (0.79 GB / FB ratio). He is a left handed specialist, meaning he is extremely dangerous against left handed batters, but these numbers show that he could be much more than that. He is expected to give up about 2.40 eq. runs per nine innings in 2013. If he was to close with these numbers, he would be an elite closer. Even so, he is an elite set-up man and left handed specialist.
The Rays have a solid pitching staff and their bullpen is probably the best bullpen in the game. It is hard to come up with a pitcher better than David Price, and a late-game bullpen combination that is better than Rodney, Peralta, and McGee. However, their weakness is in their lineup. They have two elite hitters (Longoria and Zobrist) and one average hitter (Joyce). However, the rest of the lineup is weak, and that will hold the Rays back this year. They are expected to finish fourth in the AL East this year with an 82-80 record.
Coming up right in the middle of the National League is a team expected by most pundits to be a playoff team this year, the Los Angeles Dodgers. For the past few years, the Dodgers have been in a tough financial situation due to the ownership situation. Now that Magic Johnson's business group has purchased the Dodgers, they all of a sudden have very deep pockets. In the last eight months, the Dodgers have traded for a significant part of their lineup and signed some huge names for their bullpen. Still, though, there are holes that preclude the Dodgers from being an elite team in 2013.
The star of the Dodgers' lineup is center fielder Matt Kemp, who can do it all. He is a heck of a fielder. He can steal a lot of bases and has speed that can be an asset to the team. Last year, he put together a .303/.367/.538 line, showing that he can hit for both contact and power. He is one of the top hitters in baseball, and even in a relatively down year for him, he was worth 6.579 eq. runs per nine innings per game. In other words, a team of nine Matt Kemps would score over 6 1/2 runs per game. While last year was a down year, his BABIP was still very high showing that he may have gotten a bit lucky. Even so, I project him to be worth 6.157 eq. runs, still making him an elite player in this lineup. The other centerpiece for this Dodgers' lineup is the right fielder Andre Ethier. Ethier isn't quite as proficient as Kemp at the plate, but he can still hold his own. His line last year was .284/.351/.460, showing that he could get on base at a very good rate and that he could do so with a significant source of power. He was worth about 5.461 eq. runs last year, and even if he regresses a little bit as I expect him to (his BABIP was high last year), he is still worth just about 5.2 eq. runs per year. He is not an elite hitter like Matt Kemp, but he is a very important piece to this lineup. If the Dodgers want to be in the playoff conversation, though, Ethier needs to be better than he was last year. He needs to become a 5.5-6.0 eq. run player. Elite lineups have a few players worth more than 5.5 eq. runs, and the Dodgers only have Kemp.
The Dodgers' starting lineup this year looks a bit different from the lineup from most of the year last year. One piece that was around for around half of the year last year that will return is shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who the Dodgers acquired from the Miami Marlins. Hanley Ramirez was once one of the top hitters in the game at a position that is usually dominated by defensive specialists. He is no longer at that level, but he put together a respectable .257/.322/.437 year last year. He still has some power and he can get on base at an average rate. He is expected to improve some this year from last year, when his BABIP was below average. He was worth 4.702 eq. runs last year, and he is projected to be worth 5.075 eq. runs this year. Two other pieces that will return for the Dodgers after mid-season trades last year are the pieces they received from the Red Sox, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and left fielder Carl Crawford. Adrian Gonzalez is used to playing in huge baseball parks, as he began his career with the San Diego Padres. He can hit for a lot of power, and despite having a .463 slug % last year, it was still a down power year for him. However, his BABIP was still quite high last year, so he is not expected to improve from last year. Last year, he was worth about 5.362 eq. runs and even with some regression, he is still expected to be worth 5.164 eq. runs this year. That makes him a good hitter, but far from the great hitter he once was. Carl Crawford was once a great top of the order hitter with the Tampa Bay Rays. In free agency, he signed with the Boston Red Sox, where he seemed to fold under the additional pressure. He suffered a major injury last year, limiting him even more. The Dodgers are hoping he can thrive with a change in scenery. He was able to put together an okay line in the last two years of .260/.292/.419, but those numbers are nowhere near where they were when he was in Tampa Bay. He is no longer a top of the order type hitter, as evidenced with a .292 OBP, but with the power he has, he still can provide some value to a lineup.
The rest of the lineup returns for the Dodgers. One of the pleasant surprises for the Dodgers was young catcher A.J. Ellis, who turned in a .270/.373/.414 line last year. With an OBP in the .370s, he should be a prime candidate for the top of the order, but it is unexpected for a slower catcher to be the top hitter in the lineup. He did seem to get a bit lucky last year, and he was worth 5.419 eq. runs last year. He was one of the most valuable hitters in the Dodgers' lineup last year. However, he is expected to regress, though even with the regression, he will be a valuable piece in the Dodgers' lineup. The Dodgers will also return another Ellis, second baseman Mark Ellis, to the lineup. Ellis is a contact hitter who does not have much power, putting together a line of .258/.333/.364 last year. Even with this lack of power, Mark Ellis was still worth about 4.211 eq. runs last year, and even with a little regression, he is expected to be worth over 4 runs this year. If he was expected to be a rock in this lineup, that wouldn't work. However, as a supporting member of the lineup, he is still solid. The starting third baseman for much of the year for the Dodgers last year was veteran Juan Uribe. However, he struggled mightily and put together a .191/.258/.284 line. That is pitiful for an everyday player, especially for a third baseman. He was replaced by unproved journeyman Luis Cruz, and Cruz played very well last year. Before last year, he hit much like a utility infielder, but he put together a solid .297/.322/.431 line last year. If he really found something and became a plus hitter in this lineup, he will be a valuable part. In all reality, it is unlikely he is just a middling utility infielder, but he is not a .700+ OPS player either. If the Dodgers find themselves in contention, they will be looking for better options at third base.
The Dodgers have a bit of a deep bench, made up of catcher Tim Federowicz, infielders Nick Punto and Juan Uribe, and utility players Skip Schumaker and Jerry Hairston, Jr. Skip Schumaker is expected to begin the year as the left fielder for the Dodgers, since Carl Crawford is expected to start the year on the injured list. Schumaker has put together a few solid years a a part time starter playing anywhere from the outfield to second base for the Cardinals, and he put together a .276/.339/.368 line last year. He hits for very little power, but can get on base at a reasonable clip. He is not somebody that a team like the Dodgers would want to play every day, but as a top bench player, Schumaker could thrive and provide value for the Dodgers. Veteran Jerry Hairston, Jr. is probably no longer an everyday player, but he can provide some insurance for the Dodgers. He can play third base, and that is important since Luis Cruz has not really been proven as an everyday player. If Carl Crawford is out for an extended period of time, Hairston could also play some left field. He put together a respectable line of .273/.342/.387 last year, showing that he has some power, but that the real asset he provides is the ability to get on base. He is always a plus player to have on the bench.
The Dodgers' biggest moves in the last few months, though, have been in the pitching rotation. The ace of the staff will remain Clayton Kershaw, the former Cy Young winner. Kershaw struck out over a quarter (25.4%) of the batters he faced, and he didn't walk all that many (7.0%). He is an average contact pitcher, getting about 0.90 GB for every FB. This makes him a solid pitcher who is expected to give up about 3.41 eq. runs per nine innings. Still, though, he doesn't have the lowest expected eq. runs against in 2013 in this rotation. This title belongs to free agent pickup and former Brewer and Angel Zack Greinke. He is like Clayton Kershaw in many ways. He is a former Cy Young winner. He struck out 23.0% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 6.2%. He is a slightly better contact pitcher, giving up 1.01 GB for every FB, and that makes him about a 3.29 eq. run player in 2013. There aren't many 1-2 punches in the Majors than Kershaw-Greinke. The other returning starter for the Dodgers will be Chad Billingsly, who is also a similar pitcher to Kershaw and Greinke. He is much closer to average as a strikeout pitcher (20.2%), but he walks very few as well (7.1%). He is also an average contact pitcher (0.86 GB / FB ratio), making him an overall fairly average pitcher. He is expected to give up about 3.90 runs per nine innings, and that is fairly good as a middle of the rotation starter.
The Dodgers will return a player from a very short stint with the team last year. This would be Josh Beckett, who was involved in the trade that also brought Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers. Beckett is less of a strikeout pitcher than his rotation-mates (18.1%), but the rest of his stats are line with the rest of the rotation. He walked about 7.1% of the batters he faced last year, which is right along the same lines as Kershaw and Billingsly. He is an average contact pitcher as well (0.76 GB / FB ratio), so he is expected to be about a 4.19 eq. run against player. That is reasonably good for a middle of the rotation starter. Closing out the Dodgers' rotation will be Korean baseball phenom Hyun-Jin Ryu. Whenever a player is signed from another country, it is hard to translate stats, but generally, the Korean Baseball Organization is likely equivalent to AA ball in the United States. He struck out about 24.7% of the batters he faced and walked about 6.0% of the batters he faced last year, but I put about a 1.3x adjuster in those stats. In doing that, he is expected to give up about 4.04 eq. runs last year. In all reality, it is impossible to know what he's really worth. He could be like Hideo Nomo and put up Cy Young numbers or be closer to former Yankee Kei Igawa, who never seemed to transition to the Major Leagues.
The Dodgers had some trouble with their bullpen last year, and this year is not expected to be much better. Brandon League is expected to be the closer for the Dodgers this year. He doesn't strike out many batters (17.9%), but he manages to walk 11%, making him a below average pitcher. He is a decent contact pitcher, getting about 1.01 ground balls for every fly ball last year, but even so, he is expected to give up about 4.83 runs per nine innings this year. That is not acceptable for a pitcher, especially a closer. Perhaps a better option would be Kenley Jansen. He is a very good strikeout pitcher (39.3% last year), but his walk numbers aren't that bad (8.7% last year). When you strike out 39.3% of the batters you face and walk 8.7%, only 52% of the batters you face result in contact. Even so, Jansen's big downfall is his GB / FB ratio, which is at 0.49. That takes him from being an elite reliever to simply a good reliever. On the other end of things is pitcher Ronald Belisario. Belisario strikes out his fair share of batters (24.1%), but he also walks too many (10.1%). His big asset, though, is his contact pitching. Last year, he got 1.86 ground balls for every fly ball, meaning that he doesn't give up many big hits. Jansen and Belisario are good relievers and League is well below average, making the end of the bullpen slightly below average. The rest of the bullpen, which includes former starters Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang are expected to get a lot of innings this year too due to injuries to the pitching staff. Aaron Harang, in particular, really hurts this staff, getting only a 16.7% strikeout rate and a whopping 10.8% walk rate. That is simply unacceptable for a pitcher in the Majors, but especially one who is expected to have a big impact on a good team.
The Dodgers have an average to good lineup, a good (albeit unpredictable) rotation, and a below average bullpen. To be honest, I did not expect them to be this low in my predictions, but there are weaknesses on this team. Outside of Kemp, there are no can't-miss hitters in the lineup. Ethier, Ramirez, and A.J. Ellis are very nice pieces, but Kemp will still shoulder way more than his share of the load. Greinke and Kershaw are expected to anchor this rotation, which will be better than average in the league, but most leads will not be safe with Brandon League closing out games. Because of all of this, the Dodgers are only expected to finish second in the NL West with an 80-82 record. If Ryu turns out well and League is taken out of high leverage roles, they could be much better. If the many good players on this team react negatively to being paid a significant amount and egos take over, the Dodgers could turn out to be the 2013 version of the 2012 Miami Marlins. They are truly unpredictable.
No comments:
Post a Comment