The Cleveland Indians have put together a few very good half seasons over the past few seasons, but they were followed up by even more disappointing half seasons. Cleveland management decided to sign some top free agents this off season to try to combat this. However, they didn't solve the root of their biggest problem: a weak pitching staff. Until they solve that issue, Cleveland will be far from a playoff birth.
Their lineup, however, is solid and a few signings this offseason has solidified this lineup even more. The returning offensive star for this team is catcher Carlos Santana. For the past few years, Santana has been a rarity: a catcher who is the best hitter in the team's lineup. Last year, he put together a .252/.365/.420 line, which is equivalent to a 5.326 eq. run statistic, well above average. The intriguing thing is that his OBP is so high; .365 is exceptional. I would argue he would be a spectacular leadoff hitter for the Indians; a high OBP is what makes a leadoff hitter good, not a ton of speed. Even more amazing: he did this with a BABIP below .280! Odds are that he has been unlucky over the past year and could be even better in future years, a huge asset for Cleveland. The other returning offensive star is from another traditionally weak offensive position: shortstop. Asdrubal Cabrera returns to man shortstop for Cleveland this year. He put together a very good year last year: .270/.338/.423, and like Santana, he has the potential to get better. His BABIP was only slightly above average last year, at .303. His career BABIP is at .319, which means he might be even better in coming years.
The excitement in Cleveland, though, comes from the signing of two top free agents in the offseason: first baseman Nick Swisher and center fielder Michael Bourn. It would be hard to find two players more different than these two. Swisher is a high-OBP, high-power, but slow and average defensively first baseman/corner infielder. He put together a solid line, like he normally does, last year with the Yankees by hitting at a .272/.364/.473 clip. He is a hitter much like Carlos Santana: plenty of power, but his big asset is the fact that he can get on base. Michael Bourn, on the other hand, is a speedy but offensively overrated centerfielder. He is able to get on base, but with his speed, a .348 OBP may be considered disappointing. He has virtually no power, as is shown with a .391 Slug %. He likely will be the leadoff hitter for the Indians this year, and while he is a solid pick-up, his contributions on offense fade in comparison to Swisher's.
Cleveland also made two other pickups in the offseason, though neither are nearly as big as Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn. They signed designated hitter Mark Reynolds from the Orioles. He is probably most well known for his power and ability to swing and miss at lots of pitches. However, like Santana and Swisher, Reynolds is able to get on base, as shown by his .335 OBP. Another solid option to lead off with no speed, Reynolds will likely be an underrated signing for Cleveland this year. They also traded away all-star outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to the Cincinnati Reds for Drew Stubbs, a player who has been known to lead off in the past but should hit nowhere near lead off. Last year was especially disappointing for Stubbs, who put together a poor .213/.277/.333 line last year. He has put together better years in the past, and he has plenty of power and speed, but if last year is any indication, he will not put together production anywhere near to Choo's.
Rounding out Cleveland's lineup will be second baseman Jason Kipnis, third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, and outfielder Michael Brantley. Much like the rest of the lineup, these players can hit. Kipnis is coming off a .257/.335/.379 year, which again shows an ability to get on base. He doesn't have much power, but having a second baseman at the bottom of the order with this kind of line is a big plus. Lonnie Chisenhall plays at a position where hitting is supposed to come more with the territory, and he does have a bit more power than .268/.311/.430. As a supporting player, Cleveland could do a lot worse than Chisenhall. The leadoff hitter for the past few years for Cleveland has been Michael Brantley. Brantley, acquired by Cleveland in 2008 in the CC Sabathia trade, has been a solid player in centerfield with Cleveland in the past few years. Last year, he put together a line of .288/.348/.402, showing a knack for getting on base and even a little power.
The Indians' bench, however, does leave a lot to be desired. With their lineup, however, Cleveland shouldn't have to use their bench that often, barring injury. The bench consists of catcher Lou Marson, first baseman Jason Giambi, infielder Ryan Raburn, and outfielder Mike Aviles. The most recognizable name is Jason Giambi, but his power is pretty much gone. A while back, it would seem like an impossibility that Giambi's Slug % would be lower than his OBP, but it wasn't even close last year; his line was .225/.372/.303 last year. Giambi still has the ability to hit a ball out of the ballpark, but his role should be to get on base on a regular basis at this point in his career.
The lineup for Cleveland is very good; their pitching staff is terrible. The "ace" of their staff is Justin Masterson, who is coming off a very disappointing season. Last year, he wasn't able to strikeout many (17.6%) but he did walk 9.7% of the batters he faced. His saving grace is that he gets ground balls at a good rate (1.28 GB / FB), and that kept his ERA below 5.00 last year (it was 4.93 last year). The number two pitcher in the staff, however, didn't have much luck. Once one of the young stud pitchers in baseball, Ubaldo Jimenez has fallen badly. He put together a 17 loss season with a 5.40 ERA last year. The reason for this is clear: he doesn't do anything particularly well. He was once a top-line strikeout pitcher. He struck out 17.8% last year. With his decreased strikeouts, however, his walks have erupted to the tune of 11.8% last year. His contact pitching is pitiful as well, as shown by a 0.64 GB/FB rate. There was no luck about his ERA last year; I'd expect him to give up about 5.48 runs per 9 innings last year. The other returning starter for Cleveland is lesser known Zach McAllister. He strikes out quite a few (20.3%) and has a decent walk rate (7%), but his weakness is at contact pitching. His GB/FB rate is Jimenez like, at 0.68.
Cleveland did sign a few new pitchers in the offseason as well. Brett Myers comes to Cleveland after a decent year in Houston and with the White Sox. He is a good control pitcher, only walking 5.5% of the batters he faced last year, though striking out only 15.1%. On a good team, he would be a bottom of the rotation starter, and at this point, he is quite possibly the best starter on this Cleveland team. The fifth spot in the rotation is up for grabs, but it probably doesn't matter much who gets it. Neither player is a difference maker and it wouldn't be a stretch to call them has-beens. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Scott Kazmir are the two top options for the last spot in the rotation, and given that Matsuzaka pitched at the big league level last year, I am projecting him to be the fifth starter. Like Masterson and Jimenez, he walks way too many batters and doesn't strike out enough to offset that.
Closing for Cleveland is wild personality Chris Perez. He is a decent strikeout pitcher (24.4%) and doesn't walk all that many (6.6%) making him a good closer for this franchise. He has, in the past, been known to lose all control, however, but Cleveland is prepared for that with good strikeout pitcher Vinnie Pestano and contact pitcher Joe Smith available. Pestano is coming off a year where he struck out over a quarter of the batters he faced (26.6%), though his high walk numbers (8.4%) are frightening. Smith has even higher walk numbers, at 9%, and his strikeout numbers are not nearly as good (19.1%). As mentioned, he can get ground balls at a good rate (1.41 GB / FB), so he does provide a good arm in the bullpen.
Despite a strong lineup, Cleveland will struggle with lack of depth and a weak pitching staff. In a weak division, they may have a shot to make some noise, but I predict they will struggle this season to a last place finish and a 73-89 record.
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13. New York Mets
The New York Mets are coming off an expected bad year last year. In past years, the Mets were able to sign big name free agents, but last year was not one of them. A year after their owner was found as one of the many Bernie Madoff victims, the Mets were cash strapped last year and found it difficult to compete the last few years. Despite this, the Mets had one of the best hitters in the National League last year and the Cy Young winner last year. The Cy Young winner, 35-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is now gone, and the Mets are still a few years away from being a legitimate contender.
Their lineup is anchored by third base slugger David Wright, who recently signed a long term deal and is going to remain the main hitter in the Mets' lineup. Last year, he put together a spectacular line of .306/.391/.492, showing that he can hit for some power, but more importantly, he can get on base as well as nearly anybody in Major League Baseball. That kind of line is good for an eq. run statistic of 6.544 runs. It is not realistic for him to put together another season like that (the OBP is amazingly high), but it is likely that he is a 6+ eq. run player on a yearly basis. The only other player in this lineup that can hit anywhere near as well as Wright is first baseman Ike Davis, who came off a serious injury last year and put together a .227/.308/.462 line. He had an exceptionally slow start to the year last year, and it wasn't until a few months into the season where he saw his batting average creep over .200. He has significant power, and can provide some security for Wright in the lineup.
The Mets also return a few other nice hitters to the lineup. Utilityman turned starting second baseman Daniel Murphy returns after a successful year last year. He put together a solid line of .291/.332/.403. He is not the most talented player in the world, but he is very versatile and he showed last year that he can hit for some power and with the ability to get on base at an above average clip. Also returning is left fielder Lucas Duda. Duda is a player very similar to Murphy in that you can't expect too much from him; he's an average hitter. He put together a line of .239/.329/.389, showing an ability to get on base without getting all that many hits. He's not the kind of player you can expect to hit 20+ home runs, but players who get on base nearly a third of the time are often difficult to find.
There are two newcomers to this lineup. One is a player who has changed teams twice since the season ended: catcher John Buck. Buck is coming off a terrible year with the Marlins (.192/.297/.347). He had two solid years in 2010 and 2011, but fell off a cliff with the rest of the Marlins last year. When he is on, he can be depended on for a .310+ OBP and 20 home runs, but another year like last year could be an indication that he is not capable of putting together good seasons anymore. Also new to the Mets is Marlon Byrd, coming off an even more disappointing season last year with the Cubs and the Red Sox. Byrd not only put together an eq. run year of under 2 eq. runs (.210/.243/.245 line, 1.670 eq. runs), but he was busted for PEDs and was forced to serve a 50 game suspension. Marlon Byrd was a decent hitter only a few years ago, and he can be considered a low risk signing for the Mets at this point. If he can hit like he did two or three years ago and do so legally, he is well worth the small deal the Mets gave him.
The remaining members of the lineup are young centerfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis and shortstop Ruben Tejada. Nieuwenhuis put together a decent line for a young outfielder last year, putting together a .242/.315/.376 line. His OBP is capable of getting higher, but he is going to have to develop a little more of a power stroke to become a force in the lineup. Tejada put together a solid year for a soft hitting shortstop last year replacing Jose Reyes, with a line of .289/.333/.351. His relatively high OBP would be well-placed near the top of the lineup, though his lack of power warrants a spot near the bottom of the order.
The bench for the Mets consists of catcher Anthony Recker, infielders Brandon Hicks and Justin Turner, and outfielders Mike Baxter and Collin Cowgill. The two most valuable members of this bench are Turner and Hicks. Justin Turner put together a line of .269/.319/.392 line last year, which is not bad for a backup infielder. He has some pop and some ability to get on base, and is good insurance in case Tejada or Murphy does not continue to live up to potential or if there is an injury in the infield. In the outfield, having a good backup is essential because Nieuwenhuis and Byrd are far from sure things. Mike Baxter is a great insurance policy, with a line of .263/.365/.413. Having a fourth outfielder with an OPS of nearly .800 is a great thing and I wouldn't be surprised if he was a full time starter for the Mets by the middle of this season.
The Mets have a decent well-known pitching staff, but it probably isn't as good as it seems. The number one pitcher on this staff is likely going to start the year on the injured list; it's Johan Santana. Johan Stantana was once one of the most feared pitchers in baseball. He's a decent starter, as he has a good strikeout percentage (22.2%) and walk percentage (7.8%), but his contact pitching (0.50 GB / FB) precludes him from being a true ace. The other returning pitcher who could be considered the number one pitcher is Jon Niese. He is a good control pitcher (6.2% BB percentage), and his strikeout percentage (19.7%) and contact pitching stats (0.94 GB / FB) are at least average. Dillon Gee is another pitcher who is very similar to Niese. He walks very few (6.3%) and his strikeout percentage (21%) and GB/FB ratio (1.01) are good enough to make him a solid middle of the rotation pitcher in this rotation.
Also in this rotation is Matt Harvey, who, unlike Niese and Gee, is more of a strikeout pitcher (28.6%) than a control pitcher, seeing as he walks over 10% of the batters he faces. He also struggles with contact pitching, giving up a 0.61 GB/FB ratio. To shore up the rotation, the Mets signed former Brewer Shaun Marcum, who has had issues staying healthy over the course of his career. He is a good non-contact pitcher (20.7% K percentage, 7.8% BB percentage), but as a contact pitcher, he is almost as bad as Johan Santana (0.54). If he can stay healthy for an entire season, he would be a solid middle of the rotation starter; however, he is a solid pick-up to shore up the rotation.
To begin the season, Bobby Parnell will be the closer. He is a solid strikeout pitcher (21.2%) but he makes his money as a control pitcher (6.9%) and as a contact pitcher (1.60 GB / FB ratio). He is the best pitcher in this Mets' bullpen and could be one of the top (albeit without much flash) closers in the game. However, he is likely only the placeholder for Frank Francisco, who is starting the year on the injured list. Francisco strikes out a few more batters than Parnell (23.9%) but walks a ton (10.7%) and is an even worse contact pitcher (0.49 GB / FB ratio). The difference is significant; Parnell is projected to give up about 2.88 runs per 9 innings and Francisco is projected to give up about 4.91 runs per 9 innings. A sleeper option for the closer job, but a solid set-up option is free agent pick-up Brandon Lyon. Lyon is sort of a middle of the road pitcher; he struck out more than Parnell or Francisco last year (24.4%), but his walk percentage is right in between Parnell and Francisco (7.8%) and he is a below average contact pitcher (0.60 GB / FB).
The Mets have some spectacular pieces in their lineup (David Wright) and in the rotation (Johan Santana and Jon Niese) who, if they play to their potential, could help the Mets compete for a while. Over the course of the season, though, it is unreasonable to think they can shoulder the load the whole year. They will finish in the bottom half of the division with a projected 75-87 record.
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