It has been a while since the Mariners have been relevant. For the last several years, the Mariners have been stuck in the cellar of the American League West. The glory days of Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez, and even Ichiro Suzuki are now gone and they are replaced with the lineup that is now projected to be the worst in baseball. A decent pitching staff saves them from falling below the Astros in the American League West pecking order in 2013, but this Mariners team is going to struggle mightily in 2013.
The two biggest threats in the starting lineups are both new players the Mariners acquired via trade this offseason. Michael Morse, a power hitting corner outfielder/first baseman, will likely start the year as the starting left fielder for the Mariners. He is known for his power, and despite his success with the Nationals in the previous years (.291/.321/.470 line last year), he found himself without a spot in the everyday lineup with the Nationals last year. So, he goes from being an afterthought with the Nationals to being the power hitter for the Mariners. The other big bat in the Mariners' lineup is projected to start the year as the designated hitter: Kendrys Morales. Morales, like Morse, was squeezed out of the line up on his old team, the Angels, and found himself without an everyday position. Morales' season last year was very similar to Morse's (.273/.320/.467), and they both can be expected to add at least some muscle to the Mariners' terribly weak lineup.
The Mariners also return some serviceable bats to the lineup. Kyle Seager, the starting third baseman, is probably the best batter to return to the lineup. He put together a line of .259/.316/.423 last year, which is decent for a #7 or 8 hitter in the lineup, but is not going to win many games as one of the best bats in the lineup. I do feel that he could see some improvement this year, though, and might be a legitimate middle of the lineup bat sometime in the near future. He's only going to be 25 years old this year, and if he could hit with a little more power or be a little more patient at the plate, he'll be a decent player. Two other serviceable batters returning to the lineup are centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Saunders. They are actually very similar players at the plate. To become decent everyday players, they both need to improve vastly at getting on base. Gutierrez only got on base at a .309 clip last year and Saunders only got on base at a .306 clip. Like Seager, they both have potential to be decent hitters in the lineup, although Gutierrez is already up there in years (he's 29 years old).
Two former top prospects also return to the Mariners' lineup. Jesus Montero returns, but will have to take over the role of a full time catcher with John Jaso now in Oakland. Montero, once a top prospect in the Yankees' organization, has yet to put together an overwhelming season. Last year, playing catcher and designated hitter, Montero put together a fairly weak line of .260/.298/.386. That kind of line may be ok for a good defensive catcher, but seeing as he was more of a DH in prior years, that seems doubtful. The Mariners also have former Rangers' top prospect Justin Smoak starting at first base. He has probably been even more disappointing than Montero, although many will contend that a lot of that has to do with the fact that he has not been given a full time chance to play every day yet. Last year, he put together a very weak line of .217/.290/.364, and if he wants to maintain any promise as an everyday player, he will need to hit for significantly more power and get on base at a much better clip (.320 or better).
Filling out the lineup will be soft hitting, but good fielding, middle infielders Dustin Ackley and Brendan Ryan. Ackley is probably the better hitter of the two, putting together a line of .226/.294/.328. Brendan Ryan, on the other hand, put together the rare feat of returning to a lineup with a sub-.600 OPS (.194/.277/.278 line). Both of these players are probably Major League worthy with their defensive abilities, but are probably better suited for a defensive specialist/backup infielder role.
The Mariners' bench consists of a few recognizable names: Kelly Shoppach, Robert Andino, Jason Bay, and Raul Ibanez. Shoppach should be a solid backup catcher to help Montero ease into the starting catching role. He put together a solid line for a backup catcher last year, .233/.309/.425, and he provides some pop off the bench. Andino is very similar to Ackley and Ryan. He is a decent glove, but he put together a pitiful .211/.283/.305 line last year; he shouldn't be expected to provide much more. The backup outfielders provide some intrigue. Jason Bay is coming off of a major disappointing time with the Mets where he fell from being a top-flight outfielder to being a Minor League player. He has battled injuries in recent years and put together a .165/.237/.299 line in limited time last year. He could provide some value if he could find some of his old swagger. Raul Ibanez, on the other hand, is coming off a successful postseason run with the Yankees last year. He is a better hitter than many players in this lineup, but the corner outfield, first base, and desginated hitter positions (Morse, Saunders, Morales, Smoak) are full.
The strongpoint for this Mariners team is its pitching staff; more specifically, the ace of that staff. King Felix Hernandez returns and can be expected to be a monster on the top of the Mariners' pitching staff this year. He strikes out a ton of batters (23.8%) while walking relatively few (6%) and even doing a decent job of getting ground balls (0.99 GB / FB). He did just recently sign a long-term contract, however, so the lack of pressure could help or hurt his production. The Mariners also signed former Orioles starter Joe Saunders this offseason. He is coming off consecutive playoff runs and provides value as a low-walk (5.2%) starter.
Also returning for the Mariners' pitching staff are Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, and Blake Beaven. Iwakuma is coming off a successful year, and will likely continue that as a decent strikeout pitcher (19.5%) who can also pitch to contact quite well (1.12 GB / FB). Erasmo Ramirez doesn't have quite the contact pitching shimmer that Iwakuma does (0.66 GB / FB), but his high strikeout rates (20.2%) and low walk rate (5%) make him a potential sleeper of a pitcher. Blake Beaven is the pitcher in this group who probably has the most experience, and he is a decent #5 pitcher. While his strikeout numbers are non-existent (10.5%), his walk numbers are spectacular as well (3.8%). If he could find a way to get the ground ball more frequently, he could be a good middle-of-the-rotation-type pitcher.
The bullpen for the Mariners has a bigger issue with the walk. The closer, Tom Wilhelmson, however, is the least of the problems when it comes to this issue. Last year, he walked his fair share of batters (8.9%), but he offsets that with a superb strikeout rate (26.7%) and a decent ground ball rate (0.92). Carter Capps and Charles Furbush are also likely to get innings late in games. Capps walks over 10% of the batters he faces, making him a dangerous pitcher to put in close games. He does strike out quite a few though as well (25.7%), but there are better options. Furbush is one of them. He struck out an awesome 29.1% of the batters he faced last year while walking 8.8%. His contact pitching still lags behind Wilhelmson, but he may get some looks if Wilhelmson struggles.
The Mariners' weak offense is going to drag them down this year. If it wasn't for Astros moving into this division, the Mariners would be an easy pick for last place in this division. Even with King Felix and a good pitching staff, I'm picking the Mariners to finish 4th in the division with a 72-90 record.
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14. Chicago Cubs
After the Marlins, the Cubs are the weakest team in the National League this year. With Theo Epstein at the head, the Cubs are on the rise; however, Jim Hendry sold the future of this franchise of a brief run in the mid-2000s where the Cubs were one of the elite teams in baseball. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, and Geovany Soto are now all gone and the Cubs are a very young team. There are some talented members on this team, but expecting much of them in 2013 is expecting too much.
The Cubs have two young players who have the potential to be stars in the coming years. Shortstop Starlin Castro can hit for some power and gets on base quite a bit. Last year, he put together a line of .283/.323/.430, but that was a disappointing and somewhat unlucky year for him. He is a solid young player for this franchise and is expected to be a speedy shortstop with some pop for many years to come. He is not a one-trick pony by any stretch of the imagination. He can hit for power, he can hit for contact, he can run, he can field. The only question is his head; he doesn't always seem to have it in the game. The other young potential star for the Cubs is first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who the Cubs received in a trade for prospect Andrew Cashner last year. Rizzo is a power hitting first baseman, and put together a stellar rookie line of .285/.342/.463 in the second half of last year. He actually replaced all start first baseman Bryan LaHair and made the fans forget all about LaHair's first half last year.
Also returning to the Cubs are veterans Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus. Alfonso Soriano signed a monster contract years ago when he was one of the best players in baseball. He had just put together a 40 home run & 40 stolen base season with the Nationals, and he was supposed to put the Cubs over the top and perhaps break the World Series curse. That never happened, and now the Cubs are paying for it. Over $20 million, as a matter of fact. He actually put together a very good year last year, .262/.322/.499, but given the amount of money he is making, that is not nearly enough. I'm expecting him to have the highest Eq. Run statistic for the Cubs this year at about 5.291, but a good team uses Soriano as a player to surround its best talent, not as its best talent. DeJesus is coming off a solid comeback year with the Cubs after a disappointing year with the Athletics. He is a solid leadoff hitter. Despite his .263 BA, his .350 OBP makes him a solid pick to put at the top of the lineup on a nightly basis.
From the free agent market, the Cubs have picked up two players to make a platoon in right field: Nate Schierholtz and Scott Hairston. Of these two players, Schierholtz is the better contact hitter (.257/.321/.407 last year) and Hairston was a better power hitter (.263/.299/.504). They are really two different types of player who will play on different days. Schierholtz will play more against right handed pitchers while Hairston is better against left handed pitchers. In all reality, they are not superstars, they are caretakers. However, when combined, they are a very solid outfield option.
The other three returning starters for the Cubs are not significant batting threats. Probably the best of the three is catcher Welington Castillo, who put together a .265/.337/.418. He took over the starting catching job when Geovany Soto was traded to the Rangers and held onto it reasonably well. He is expected to continue being an average catcher for the Cubs. Also returning is Ian Stewart, a once promising infielder expected to start at third base for the Cubs. He was once a steady power hitter for the Rockies but he has fallen off a cliff in the past two years. Last year, he put together a .201/.292/.335 line, and he is not expected to be the most solid of starters in the Cubs' lineup. Rounding out the lineup is light hitting second baseman Darwin Barney. He is essentially a placeholder in the starting lineup, putting together a line of .254/.299/.335 last year. He is probably best suited to be a utility infielder, but the Cubs are not deep on the infield, so Barney has been the starting second baseman the last two years and will continue to start there this year.
Outside of the player not starting in the Shierholtz/Hairston platoon, the bench for the Cubs consists of Dioner Navarro, Brent Lillibridge, Luis Valbuena, and Dave Sappelt. The player most likely to make an impact for the Cubs is utility player Luis Valbuena. He took over third base for an injured Ian Stewart last year and put together a .219/.310/.340 line. With him as one of the top options off the bench, however, it is clear that the Cubs' bench is not deep at all.
The Cubs' pitching staff is decent and is full of pitchers who could be solid pieces of a top flight pitching staff. To begin the year, the top pitcher of the staff is former Notre Dame wide receiver Jeff Samardzija, who has come around as a starting pitcher. He strikes out nearly a quarter of the batters he faces while walking fewer than 8%. He is an average contact pitcher, making him an above average pitcher overall. Also returning to start for the Cubs is Matt Garza, a similar pitcher who will be starting the year on the injured list. He has quietly been a solid pitcher for the Cubs the last few years, putting together a 22.6% K, 7.6% BB, 0.94 GB/FB line last year. When he is healthy, he is the ace of the staff.
The rest of the Cubs' starting rotation, when healthy, will consist of players who started with other teams last year. From the Nationals last year, the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson, a journeyman pitcher who has a knack for putting together solid seasons and not getting recognized for it. He struck out quite a few (21.3%) last year while walking relatively few (7.3%), showing that he can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The Cubs also signed Scott Feldman, a relatively unknown pitcher from the Rangers. While he doesn't have the strikeout prowess (17.9%) of Samardzija, Jackson, or Garza, he walks even fewer (6%) and seems ready to put together a solid year. Starting the year on the injured list will be Scott Baker, who puts together a solid strikeout rate (22.5%) and an excellent walk rate (5.8%). He does struggle with contact pitching, though, where he only has a 0.53 GB / FB ratio. If he could fix this, the Cubs' rotation could be very very good.
The bullpen, on the other hand, is full of questions. One of the questions that comes to my mind is "Why is Carlos Marmol still expected to close?" He is so inconsistent. When he throws strikes, he is virtually unhittable, as shown by his 29.2%. But he can't throw strikes consistantly, as shown by his 18.2% walk rate. He is also a bad contact pitcher with a 0.68 GB / FB ratio. By my statistics, I'd expect for him to give up over 6 runs per nine innings, by far making him the worst closer in baseball. I suppose one reason is that the next option, Kyuji Fujikawa, doesn't have Major League experience. He comes over from the Japanese Major Leagues, and you can expect a drop-off in statistics moving from Japan's Major Leagues to the US's. The best comparison I heard is that Japan's Major League is similar in talent to a AA Minor League Baseball team in the US. Looking at Fujikawa's stats last year, I'm expecting him to give up 4.53 runs per nine innings, which is bad, especially for a late game reliever. He could be spectacular, though... it's just impossible to tell. The other internal option to close is Shawn Camp. He does not throw many strikeouts (16.5%), which means he probably won't be given the chance to close. However, his walk percentage is very low (6.4%) and I'd expect him to give up about 3.99 runs per nine innings, better than the other Cubs' options.
The Cubs are a team that has some pieces in place to be a solid team. Unlike the Mariners, I could see them putting together a decent season this year. Their pitching staff is probably average and with Soriano, Castro, Rizzo, and DeJesus in the lineup, I could see this team fighting early in the season. They have too many holes for the long haul, though, and I expect them to finish in the cellar of the NL Central this year with a 71-91 record.
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