And here is the first playoff team from the American League last year to appear on these projections. The Baltimore Orioles shocked the baseball world last year by competing all year in the ultra-competitive American League East and ended up just short of the Yankees for the division lead but won one of the wild cards. They shocked the baseball world again by beating the two-time American League champion Texas Rangers in the one-game wild card playoff last year. However, they seemed to get quite lucky last year. The lineup overachieved, and the pitching staff exceeded all expectations. While I won't say it's impossible for them to repeat, it should not be expected.
The Orioles' offense is led by two outfielders. The starting right fielder is the perennially underrated Nick Markakis. Markakis is not a well known hitter since he plays for Baltimore, but he always seems to produce. Last year, he put together a line of .298/.363/.471, showing that even with the little bit of power he is known for, he also got on base at an amazing clip. He had the highest on-base percentage of anybody in the Orioles' lineup, and he did it with a lower than career average BABIP. He would actually be a decent option to lead off for the Orioles given they have other good power hitters with less of a contact hitting talent than Markakis. One of those players is Adam Jones, the starting center fielder. Jones is one of the top young hitters in the game, and last year he seemed to put all of his potential together. He hit at a .287/.334/.505 clip, which shows he can hit for good contact but very good power. He does this all while being a solid defensive center fielder, making him a very valuable player. Last year, he had a 5.614 eq. run statistic, a very solid amount. Even if he regresses as I expect him to, he is still expected to have a 5.571 eq. run statistic.
Another relatively unknown slugger on this Orioles' team is the starting first baseman, Chris Davis. He is a hitter very similar to Adam Jones, putting together a .270/.326/.501 line and 5.427 eq. runs per nine innings. He has a ton of power but can also hit for good contact, making him a solid option for the top or middle of the order. He is expected to regress some this year, but he is still expected to hit for about 5.3 eq. runs in 2013. One of the most heralded prospects in recent history has been Orioles' starting catcher Matt Wieters. Wieters has become an above average catcher, but he still has the potential to do more. Last year, in what could be considered an unlucky year, Wieters hit for a .249/.329/.435 line. That is good for 4.809 eq. runs, a very good amount. However, I am expecting him to hit for more this year and move that statistic above 5.000 eq. runs. If he can do that, he would provide a significant bat to this lineup that already has a lot of good bats.
The rest of the Orioles' infield consists of some relatively well known players and a highly regarded prospect. Coming off a bad injury that cut his 2012 season short and gave him a .210/.261/.288 line in the last two years, Brian Roberts comes back to man second base. Roberts is a face of the franchise in that he played with the team for many bad years. Now that the team is good again, he is now the leader. However, there may be a short leash for him in the lineup. He needs to improve on that line from the last two years, which is good for 2.302 eq. runs, to stay in the starting lineup. He is expected to hit for about 3.223 eq. runs, which may still be good enough given that the lineup is still rather young and could use some leadership. Another veteran returns for the Orioles at shortstop: J.J. Hardy. Hardy has had some flashes with the Orioles, but is still far from the player he was as an all-star with the Milwaukee Brewers. Last year, he put together a .238/.282/.389 line. He has some power, but it's really hard to consider a player who gets on base less than 30% of the time a significant part of the lineup. And he only got on base 28.2% of the time. Hardy does need to make an improvement because there is a top prospect looking down his back to take over the shortstop role. At the moment, though Manny Machado is expected to start the year at third base for the Orioles. In limited time last year, Machado hit at a .262/.294/.445 clip. He can get on base at a better rate than Hardy and he hits for more power than Hardy. He can be expected to improve in the coming years and may eventually be one of the best shortstops or third basemen in the game. At this moment though, he is a supporting role player for the Orioles.
The rest of the lineup will consist of a platoon in left field and Wilson Betemit at designated hitter. Betemit has some power and can get on base at a decent rate, as shown by his .261/.322/.422 line. He is not a world beater, but he is a good role player for this Orioles team and he played a big role in the Orioles' playoff run last year. His fielding is not good, but he also has experience on the infield at third base, so in a pinch, he could take over at third and Machado could take over at second or shortstop if Roberts or Hardy struggle significantly this year. Closing out the lineup will be a platoon of Nate McLouth and Nolan Reimold in left field. Nate McLouth was once seen as a top outfielder with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he has fallen considerably since he got traded to the Atlanta Braves and subsequently moved on to the Baltimore Orioles. He had a passable year last year, hitting .241/.314/.380, but the Orioles would probably prefer a little more pop in their left fielder. Reimold can provide some of that pop, after putting together a .260/.329/.488 line last year. Nate McLouth has significantly better numbers against right handers and Nolan Reimold is better against southpaws, so these two make good platoon-mates in left field.
Besides the non-starter in the McLouth/Reimold platoon, the Orioles' bench consists of catcher Taylor Teagarden, infielder Danny Valencia, and infielder Alexi Casilla. Teagarden is essentially a deep backup behind a very young and talented starter and is not expected to get much playing time. Valencia was dropped by the Minnesota Twins last year and is now involved with the PED scandal this offseason. The only player in this group expected to make much of a difference is Casilla, and even he struggled mightily with the Twins last year, hitting .241/.282/.321 last year. Despite that, he was known as a high-potential player not too long ago, and with Hardy and Roberts struggling a bit in the last few years, Casilla provides a safety net for the Orioles.
The Orioles' lineup is what got them to the playoffs last year. Their pitching staff didn't get in the way, but is far from being great. It didn't get any better in the off-season after they lose Joe Saunders to free agency. That leaves Jason Hammel as the number one pitcher in the Orioles' rotation. He has the highest strikeout rate of anybody in the rotation (22.9%), but he also had the highest walk rate of anybody in this Orioles' rotation last year (8.5%). One saving grace is that he is able to get ground balls at a 1.14 GB / FB rate, so he can provide value as a contact pitcher. His 3.68 expected eq. runs against is decent, but that does not make him a true ace. The next pitcher in line for the Orioles returns to the Orioles after a surprisingly good year last year. Wei-Yin Chen is a less flashy pitcher than Hammel, as shown by his lower strikeout rate (18.8%). He certainly doesn't walk all that many hitters either (7%), but his contact pitching makes him a below average middle of the rotation starter, with a 0.59 GB / FB ratio. He is expected to give up about 4.32 eq. runs per nine innings, which is to be expected of a middle of the rotation starter for an average team. Chris Tillman also returns for the Orioles after putting together a spectacular 9-3 record with a 2.93 ERA last year. Is he really that good? Well, he strikes out a fair share of batters (19% last year) and doesn't walk all that many batters (6.9%), but he struggles even more than Chen at contact pitching, giving up a 0.54 GB / FB raito. He is very similar to Chen in his pitching style, and is expected to give up essentially the same number of runs, 4.34, per nine innings.
The rest of the Orioles' rotation is weak, to put it nicely. Miguel Gonzalez returns after a solid year that saw him pitch to the tune of a 9-4 record and a 3.25 ERA. Again, those stats include a ton of luck and I do not expect him to come near that this year. He strikes out fewer batters than Chen and Tillman (17.7%) while walking more (8.1%) and has a very similar ground ball rate (0.56). If Chen and Tillman are average middle of the rotation starters on an average team, Gonzalez is far below that. Most teams do not want a 4.70 ERA player on their team, but Gonzalez is expected to give up 4.7 runs per 9 innings this year. It could be worse though. He could be the expected fifth starter for the Orioles, Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens was once an all star pitcher for the Braves, but even when he was, any good sabermatician could see he was overachieving. Last year, he walked (7.9%) nearly as many batters as he struck out (8.4%) and did this all while giving up a ton of fly balls (0.63 GB / FB ratio). He is expected to give up about 5.32 runs per nine innings, and the only reason that it isn't more is that walks play a bigger role than anything in determining a pitchers' worth. His walk percentage is average, but his walk:strikeout ratio is way too high for a Major League pitcher. He is probably best used as a mop up reliever or a starter in AAA.
The Orioles do not fall into the trap of using a flashy player as the closer. Rather, they use a reliable, low-walk reliever, Jim Johnson, as their closer. Last year, he struck out only 15.2% of the batters he faced, but did so while only walking 5.6% of the batters he faced. He also gets a lot of ground balls, with a 1.80 GB / FB ratio. I applaud the Orioles for doing this; they have flashier pitchers in their bullpen who strike out a ton more but walk more. Most teams would probably use their set-up man, Pedro Strop, as their closer. Strop strikes out more than Jim Johnson (20.5%) but his high walk percentage (13.1%) negates his strikeout percentage. However, when he does get the opposing player to hit the ball, he gets ground balls 1.77 times for every fly ball he gives up, making him a very good contact pitcher. Given all of this, Johnson can be expected to give up 2.81 runs per nine innings and Strop can be expected to give up 4.20 runs per nine innings, a significant difference. Another intriguing reliever for the Orioles is Darren O'Day. Darren O'Day is weak as a contact pitcher (0.53 GB / FB), but as a strikeout and walk pitcher, he is even better than Jim Johnson (26.2% K %, 5.3% BB %). O'Day does have a higher expected eq. runs against stat than Johnson because of his weakness as a contact pitcher, though, as he is expected to give up 3.4 runs per nine innings. That is not a bad amount, but Johnson is clearly the best pitcher in this bullpen.
The Orioles have a lot of talent in their lineup, and that talent could help them contend for another playoff run this year. However, a big part of the Orioles playoff run came from the extreme luck the rotation gave them last year. Their rotation has well below average peripherals, but many of them had ERAs well below 4.00 this year. It is unrealistic to think they can repeat this. In this ultra-competitive division, the Orioles are expected to finish last. They will do so, though, with a respectable 77-85 record. If I told you last year the Orioles would finish 77-85, many fans would likely have been happy with that. This year, though, it will be a huge disappointment.
If there was any team that is like the Orioles in the National League, it would likely be the Colorado Rockies. They have a very good lineup (although most lineups would be very good a mile above sea level) but a very bad pitching staff (most pitching staffs would be bad a mile above sea level, though). However, unlike the Orioles, the baseball gods did not smile on the Rockies' pitching staff last year, and they finished last in the National League West last year. Can the Rockies improve enough to become a playoff contender this year?
When talking about the Rockies' starting lineup, the conversation will probably start with shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki is a good source of power in the Rockies' lineup, but also gets on base at a decent clip. Even in a disappointing (for him) season last year, Tulowitzki hit at a .287/.360/.486 clip. However, he can be expected to be even better than that, given his career statistics. He is expected to be a 6.354 eq. run player in 2013, making him one of the top hitters in baseball. And he does this at one of the toughest defensive positions to play, shortstop. He is an elite baseball player. Another top-flight hitter returning to the Rockies' lineup is left fielder Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez put together a spectacular year last year that saw him hit .303/.371/.510. Gonzalez probably has more power than anybody else in this lineup, making him an excellent choice to be a cleanup hitter. However, most probably wouldn't guess his OBP is that high. He is a very underrated hitter, though I expect him to regress a bit next year (from being a 6.353 eq. run player to being a 5.952 eq. run player).
The rest of the Rockies' outfield is nothing to scoff at either. Returning to play center field is Dexter Fowler, who, out of all of the solid hitters in this Rockies' lineup, returns with the highest OBP. Last year, he hit .300/.389/.474, which would make him another 6+ eq. run player (6.353 eq. runs). However, it is foolish to think he can keep that up; his BABIP last year was an out-of-this-world .390. Even the best hitters in the game can only maintain a BABIP in the .330 range, so I expect him to fall down to a 5.463 eq. run player. Still, even a 5.463 eq. run player is a solid player who can play a significant role in even a very good offense. He is the best leadoff option on this team as he can get on base for the better power hitters (Tulowitzki and Gonzalez) to hit him in. The right fielder for the Rockies is Michael Cuddyer. Unlike Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, and Fowler, Cuddyer isn't especially good at getting on base, though it's not a terrible weakness either. He is more of a straight up power hitter, putting together a .260/.317/.489 line last year. He would make a solid middle of the lineup hitter, where he could bring in the players above him who are better at getting on base. He had a lower than career average BABIP last year, and I'm expecting him to increase from a 5.140 eq. run player (which is still very good) to being a 5.405 eq. run player in 2013.
Even with the four players above leading the team in offense, the Rockies still had two other 5.4+ eq. run players last year. One was spectacular rookie catcher Wilin Rosario. Rosario took over the starting catcher position from Ramon Hernandez and became one of the better hitting catchers in the game. He hit .270/.312/.530 last year, showing he is a Michael Cuddyer-type hitter in that he doesn't get on base much more than average, but he has huge power. A positive thing for the Rockies is that Rosario was a rookie last year and could still improve with more time in the Majors. The other 5.4 eq. run player for the Rockies last year was third baseman Chris Nelson, who is a solid all around hitter, hitting .301/.352/.458 line last year. Like the rest of the hitters in this lineup, Nelson's stats are heavily influenced by playing half of his games in the high altitude, but his statistics were very good. A .352 OBP is above average and he did it with a lot of power. If he can contribute that again in 2013, he will help make this very good lineup potentially great.
I've gotten through the top six hitters in this lineup and I haven't even mentioned the face of this Rockies franchise yet. Much like the Orioles, the Rockies have a face of the franchise too, who is a bit over the hill but can contribute. The Rockies' is Todd Helton, the starting first baseman. Once one of the strongest power hitters in the game, Helton put together a solid OBP last year, hitting .238/.343/.400. His power has fallen considerably, but a .343 OBP is nothing to scoff at, and even though most first basemen in the majors hit for huge power, Helton's offense is still a net plus for tis Rockies' team. Plus, his BABIP was exceptionally low last year, .260. His career BABIP is .333, so I'm projecting him to go from being a 4.724 eq. run player in 2012 to a 5.631 eq. run player in 2013. Ending out the Rockies' lineup is no slouch either, it's second baseman Josh Rutledge. He is probably the weakest hitter in this lineup, but most teams would be happy with him at second base, where he put together a .274/.306/.469 line last year. That is good for 4.738 eq. runs, which is above the league average. Now, it's hard to compare the Rockies' lineup to anyone else because of the offensive advantages playing in Colorado, but the lowest eq. run statistic for this team last year was Helton's 4.724. This team has a very good starting lineup.
The Rockies even have some solid players on the bench, which is expected to be made up of catcher Ramon Hernandez, utility player Jordan Pacheco, and outfielders Tyler Colvin, Reid Brignac, and Eric Young, Jr. Tyler Colvin put together a .290/.327/.531 line last year, showing he can hit for at least average contact and above average power. In a less crowded outfield, Colvin would be an everyday player; however, he is blocked by Cuddyer, Gonzalez, and Fowler in Colorado. Likewise, Eric Young, Jr. put together a solid year last year with a .316/.377/.448 line. He doesn't have the power of Colvin, but he gets on base at a spectacular rate. On most teams, he would not only be an everyday player, but he would contend for the leadoff role. On this Rockies team, he is probably the fifth outfielder, but a solid bat off the bench at that.
The Rockies have a very good lineup, but they are precluded from competing because of their weak pitching staff. In most ballparks, this pitching rotation would struggle mightily, but in Colorado, their chances of competing are much worse. The so-called number one pitcher in this staff is Jorge de la Rosa, who is coming off a major injury that saw him sidelined most of 2012. In 2011 and 2012, de la Rosa had problems with control where he walked 8.1% of the batters he faced. He made up for some of that with a 19.5% strikeout percentage, but he is not a very good contact pitcher (0.70 GB / FB ratio). He is expected to give up about 4.39 runs per nine innings in 2013. For a bottom of the rotation starter, that is acceptable. For a top pitcher in the pitching staff, that is devastating. Also returning for the Rockies is Jhoulys Chacin. There isn't anything particularly wrong with a strikeout percentage of 14.3% like Chacin's was last year. His real issue, though, is that he walks nearly as many batters (10.2%) without being a good contact pitcher (0.63). His expected eq. runs against per nine innings in 2013 is 5.39, which means he would probably be better in the bullpen or in AAA than as a starting pitcher on a Major League club. And he is expected to be the number two pitcher for the Rockies. Oof. One of the more recognized names in the Rockies' rotation, though, may be a bit of a saving grace. This would be Jeff Francis, who doesn't strike out many batters (15.1%) but he rarely walks anybody (4.4%) and he gets a lot of ground balls (1.0 GB / FB ratio) when he pitches to contact. He could be the best pitcher in this rotation (3.52 exp. eq. runs per nine innings), but the team sees him as a middle to lower rotation starter. His 5.58 ERA last season is offputting, though.
One of the younger, higher ceiling pitchers in this pitching staff is Drew Pomeranz, who the Rockies received in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade in 2011. Pomeranz throws a lot of strikeouts (19.1%), but he throws too many walks (10.6%) to be considered a good pitcher. His GB / FB ratio last year was average (0.75), so he is probably a #5 pitcher on an average team. His expected runs per nine innings was 4.96 last year, and that needs to be improved if Pomeranz is going to be a solid Major League pitcher. Also returning after limited Major League time last year is Juan Nicasio. He strikes out more than Pomeranz (21%) and walks fewer than Pomeranz (8.6%), so at this point in his career, Nicasio is probably a better pitcher than Pomeranz. His ceiling likely isn't as high, though, and Nicasio will probably be a bottom of the rotation starter for most of his career. His stats would indicate that he should give up about 4.47 runs per nine innings, which is probably what is expected from a bottom of the rotation starter.
Unlike the starting pitching staff, however, the Rockies have some serious talent in the bullpen right now. All three of their top relievers get strikeouts while rarely walking anyone. Rafael Betancourt is expected to start the year as a closer. He is not a good contact pitcher (0.55 GB / FB ratio) but he strikes out a lot of batters (24.2%) while walking very few (5.1%). He is expected to give up about 3.49 runs per nine innings, which is probably about average for a closer. Also returning to the Rockies' bullpen is former starter Matt Belisle. He walks about the same number of batters as Betancourt (5.2%) while striking out less (19.8%). However, as a contact pitcher, he is far superior to Betancourt (1.02 GB / FB), which is so important in a stadium like Colorado's. He is expected to give up about 3.30 runs per nine innings, making him a solid bullpen option. Probably the best bullpen pitcher for the Rockies, though, is former Astro Wilton Lopez. For some reason, the Astros never saw him as a solid bullpen option. However, he strikes out 20.8% of the batters he faces while walking an astonishingly low 3.1% and getting 1.22 GB for every FB. This makes him a 2.50 eq. run against pitcher, which is spectacular. It will be interesting to see how his work translates to Coors Field, but if he can keep up these three ratios relatively well, Lopez could be one of the top relievers in the game.
The Rockies are expected to have a good offense and a pitching staff that struggles given the high altitude they play in. They do. They are expected to have the third best offense in the National League, but the worst pitching staff in the Majors. That is to be expected since they not only play in Colorado, but also because their pitching staff is fairly weak overall. Their bullpen saves them a little bit, but the rotation will be a big downer for this club. They are expected to finish third in the National League West this year with a 79-83 record.
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