One of the more frustrating teams to pick on a year to year basis, the Chicago White Sox consistently seem to be in contention for most of the year, only to see their team finish with a record around .500. In a relatively weak American League Central, the Chicago White Sox could continue to contend, but it will be an uphill battle for them.
The face of the franchise ever since Frank Thomas left the White Sox is starting first baseman Paul Konerko. He is getting older (and considering the fact he was considered for the White Sox manager job last year, the team seems to think he is getting wiser), but he certainly can still hit for power and get on base at a very good clip. Last year, he hit to a .298/.371/.486 clip, not looking like a player who is going to hang up his cleats anytime soon. Those numbers give him a 6.101 eq. run statistic, highest on the team last year. Even if he regresses some (as I am projecting he will), he will be amongst the team's leaders in eq. runs and will continue to be a valuable member to this lineup. After having a spectacularly disappointing season in 2011 (.159/.292/.277), designated hitter Adam Dunn returned nicely last year. He is not known for being a high batting average player (.204 last year), but his OBP was a healthy .333 last year. He found power again and saw his slug % nearly double to .468. It is also encouraging that Dunn did this with an extremely low .246 BABIP last year. It is unlikely that he will bring that up to a league average .290-.300 BABIP again, but it would seem that his .240s BABIPs the last two years are out of the norm. He could very well bring it up above .300 again, but even if he could improve it to .270-.280, he could become that much more valuable to this White Sox lineup.
Also returning to the White Sox lineup is right fielder Alex Rios, who put together a solid .304/.334/.516. Despite having an OBP very similar to Dunn's last year, he did it more by getting hits (as shown by his .304 BA last year) than by getting walks. He hit for significant power last year as well, as shown by his .516 Slug %. It is unlikely that he can repeat those stats, but even a decent sized regression would make him a solid 5.4-5.5 eq. run player, making him a solid top or middle of the lineup hitter. A new bat to the White Sox lineup will be third baseman Jeff Keppinger, who is known more as a utility player than an everyday player. However, he is coming off a career year with Tampa Bay last year (.325/.367/.439 line). It is very unlikely that he could match those numbers, but he has always been respectable to the bat, and even with a very significant regression to his stats, he could still be a 5 eq. run player. That would make him a decent addition to this lineup.
Finishing out the White Sox lineup is center fielder Alejandro de Aza and left fielder Dayan Viciedo. De Aza will likely begin the year as the leadoff hitter for the White Sox, and he is a decent choice for that role. he is certainly a better contact hitter (.349 OBP) than a power hitter (.410 Slug %), and he has the highest OBP of all returning White Sox this year (Keppinger's was higher, but he was with Tampa Bay last year). Viciedo, on the other hand, is more of a power hitter (.444 Slug %) than a contact hitter (.300 OBP). However, his power isn't overly significant. Viciedo can hit enough to survive as a starting outfielder in the Majors, but he is better used as a bottom of the lineup player than as a top or middle of the lineup player.
The rest of the White Sox lineup comes from defensive premium positions and it can be seen by their offensive statistics. They are second baseman Gordon Beckham, shortstop Alexei Ramirez, and catcher Tyler Flowers. Gordon Beckham was once seen as a top prospect in baseball, but his star has fallen considerably. He can play defense, but his line of .234/.296/.371 is disappointing. It is hard to justify playing a player who can't get on base over 30% of the time on a regular basis, but his defense and potential are so high that he still gets regular playing time at second base. It may be even tougher to keep Alexei Ramirez (.265/.287/.364) as a full time player. A team of 9 Ramirezes is expected to score fewer than 3.4 runs per game, and he gets on base even less than Beckham. He is best used as a utility infielder, but the White Sox will start with him at shortstop. Rounding out the lineup is Tyler Flowers, who is going to have to replace all star catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who is with Texas now. He actually put together some decent numbers last year in limited playing time last year (.213/.296/.412) for a catcher, but he still scores fewer than 4 eq. runs and will have to improve to even be close to replacing Pierzynski's offensive prowess.
The bench for the White Sox isn't all that deep and it consists of young catcher Hector Gimenez, infielders Conor Gillaspie and Angel Sanchez, and outfielder DeWayne Wise. Conor Gillaspie is a pickup after the San Francisco Giants dropped him. He had a decent line last year of .247/.298/.373, but he is correctly not used as an everyday player. He just doesn't do enough to justify an everyday role as shown by his 3.668 eq. run statistic last year. DeWayne Wise was once an everyday player with the White Sox, but his stats don't justify it. Last year, he put together a .259/.293/.429 line. With the White Sox's solid outfield, it makes sense that Wise doesn't start every day, but he still provides some pop off the bench.
The Chicago White Sox will return their entire starting rotation from last year. The ace of the staff is Chris Sale, who has a very good underlying pitching line. Last year, he struck out nearly a quarter (24.9%) of the batters he faced while walking only 6.6%. As a contact pitcher, he gets an average 0.82 GB / FB ratio. When put all together, he is expected to give up about 3.46 runs per 9 innings, making him a solid top of the rotation option for the White Sox. Their big free agent signing was a re-signing, when they re-signed Jake Peavy in the offseason. He doesn't strike out quite as many batters as Sale (22%) but he walks even fewer (5.6%). If he could find a way to improve his contact pitching game (0.58 GB / FB ratio), he would be a solid top of the rotation starter. Even so, he is a solid #2 option.
The rest of the rotation isn't quite as hot. Gavin Floyd will return for the White Sox. He is a decent strikeout pitcher (19.9%), but he walks too many batters (8.7%). Some of this is offset by a good GB / FB ratio (0.89), but he is still expected to give up about 4.27 runs per nine innings. He is a solid middle of the rotation option for the White Sox. A less solid middle of the rotation option for the White Sox is John Danks. He is not a strikeout pitcher (12.6% K %), and that could be ok if he didn't walk many batters. However, his walk percentage was the highest in the White Sox rotation (9.7%) and he doesn't have an excessively good GB / FB ratio (0.78) to offset it. He probably belongs at the bottom of the rotation or even as a long reliever as he is expected to give up 5.23 runs per nine innings. Significant improvement will need to occur for him to contribute success to the Chicago White Sox. Closing out the rotation is Jose Quintana, who doesn't strike out many as well (14.3%). He doesn't walk as many, but he needs to improve in that stat as well if he wants to really contribute to the White Sox; 7.4% is still too high. As a contact pitcher, Quintana is decent (0.92 GB / FB ratio), but he is best placed at the bottom of the White Sox's rotation.
The White Sox's bullpen is fairly weak, especially at the end of the bullpen. Addison Reed is expected to start the year as the closer, but he is only average in both strikeout rate (22.7%) and walk rate (7.6%). He is also well below average as a contact pitcher (0.49 GB / FB ratio), making him a pitcher who is expected to five up 4.27 runs per nine innings. He is not an ideal closing candidate. Perhaps a better option is Matt Thornton, who strikes out less than Reed (19.9%) but who walks many fewer batters (6.4%) and is able to pitch to contact very well (1.17 GB / FB ratio). Because of all of this, he is expected to give up almost a whole run fewer than Reed, at 3.39 runs per nine innings. At least it doesn't seem that the White Sox won't fall into the trap of closing with the pitcher with the best strikeout rate, Jesse Crain. He struck out an extremely high number of batters (30.9%), but it's more than offset by his weak walk percentage (11.9%). He is expected to give up more runs than even Reed (4.49 per 9 innings), making him a dangerous option at the end of this bullpen.
The White Sox seem to be top heavy in their lineup (Konerko, Dunn, and Rios) and in the rotation (Sale and Peavy), but they seem to fall off significantly after that. Because of that, it is unlikely that the White Sox will be true contenders for the AL Central, though they may be able to fight for a wild card for at least part of the season. In the end, though, I expect them to finish second in the AL Central with a 75-87 record. Funny enough, the Twins, Royals, and White Sox are all expected to finish at 75-87; however, I put the White Sox second, the Royals third, and the Twins fourth based on pythagorean win percentage. Minnesota was at 46.032%, Kansas City was at 46.039%, and Chicago was at 46.162%. Still the difference is not significant.
Here is the first real surprise of my projections. The defending world champions finishing 10th in the National League? To be honest, I'm skeptical of this projection, but there are reasons for concern for the San Francisco Giants. The lineup consists of a few elite players but mostly players who can be considered "just guys". The pitching staff has been considered elite for a while now, but I'm not so sure that they are. As a matter of fact, I projected Tim Lincecum's downfall before last season. Will he come back? My answer is below.
However, as always, I will start with the lineup for the Giants. It is hard to start talking about this lineup without the 2012 National League MVP, catcher Buster Posey. Posey put together a line of .336/.408/.549 last year, making him not only a good power hitter, but also one of the best players at getting on base last year. On top of that, he does it at the premium defensive position. Last year, he had an eq. run statistic of 7.484 runs, which is extremely high. His BABIP was exceptionally high though, at .368. It is unrealistic to see him put together that high of a BABIP again in 2013. However, even if he regresses back to around his career norm, he is still by far the most valuable player in the Giants' lineup. He is projected to be a 6.710 eq. run player this year, making him one of the elite hitters in baseball. The other offensive star on this team is third baseman Pablo Sandoval. He is sometimes hard to project because he is a top hitter when in shape but struggles when he is not. Last year, he put together a good line of .283/.342/.447, but he is capable to doing so much more. I'm actually projecting he will improve from a 5.165 eq. run player to a 5.382 eq. run player this year, and will contribute more to the Giants' offense.
Two outfielders also contribute quite a bit of offense to this Giants lineup. In center field, Angel Pagan had a very good year hitting .288/.338/.440. He has some power and is able to get on base on a regular basis. Last year, he was a 5.022 eq. run player, and even with a little regression in 2013, he is expected to be a 4.826 eq. run player. He isn't going to be a world beater, but he does provide enough offense to be a significant part of this lineup. Also returning is right fielder Hunter Pence, whom the Giants acquired via trade with the Phillies last season. He had a down year by his standards last year, with a .253/.319/.425 line. He is probably approaching the point in his career where he is past his prime, but he is still expected to improve next year and be nearly a 5 eq. run per game type player. He is not the elite hitter he once was, but he can contribute to a lineup.
Returning to play first base is perennial prospect Brandon Belt. Belt doesn't seem to get the treatment most prospect first basemen do, but he put together a solid .275/.360/.421 line last year, good for a 5.242 eq. run statistic. He doesn't have the power that most first basemen do, but he is a solid on-base type player. Outside of Posey, he had the highest OBP of anybody in the Giants' lineup and while unconventional, Belt could be a solid leadoff hitter (without much speed) for this lineup. If he can get on base 36% of the time, Posey and Sandoval will have a lot of opportunities to bring him in. The Giants will also return second baseman Marco Scutaro, the postseason hero for the Giants. He had a better year than his career trajectory would indicate he should have with a .306/.348/.405 line last year. He doesn't have much power, but he got on base much more than he normally did before last year. He can't be expected to put together a line like that every year, and the Giants likely overpaid for him, but he should contribute offensively pretty well.
The rest of the lineup for the Giants are weak links, in all reality. Left fielder Gregor Blanco will return and replace former left fielder Melky Cabrera. He was a backup outfielder from the time the Giants brought in Hunter Pence until the time Melky Cabrera was suspended for PED use, and that is probably where he belongs. In a year where his BABIP is likely higher than it should be, he put together a line of .244/.333/.344. His OBP is okay, but he does it with no power and will be a bottom of the order player for the Giants. Brandon Crawford will also return and play shortstop for the Giants. His line was even worse than Blanco's (.248/.304/.349), though most of his contributions come on defense. He is a young player and has the potential to get better, but at this point, he is probably best suited for a backup defensive specialist shortstop role.
The Giants' bench consist of a few intriguing players and they are actually relatively deep on the bench. It is made up of catcher Hector Sanchez, first baseman Brett Pill, infielder Tony Abreu, utility player Joaquin Arias, and outfielder Andres Torres. Brett Pill was once considered a decent prospect, but the star and dimmed significantly for him. Last year, he put together a line of .210/.265/.352, and that simply won't do it for a first baseman. He will need to get on base more and show more power if he wants to remain in the picture for the Giants. Joaquin Arias is a player who could provide some pop from shortstop, though not much. In all reality, his line of .270/.304/.389 isn't great, but it is significantly better than Brandon Crawford's, and he does provide an option at the shortstop position if Crawford doesn't improve or regresses in 2013. Andres Torres is the fourth outfielder, and he could compete with Blanco for the third outfielder job. His line isn't far off from Blanco's at .230/.327/.337, and if he improves while Blanco doesn't, he has a good chance of being the everyday left fielder for the Giants.
Now we go to the part of the Giants' team that has been extremely good for the past few years, its pitching staff. Even with a weak lineup, the Giants have been able to win the World Series twice in the last three years, and they have done it on the shoulders of this pitching staff. However, I'm really only impressed with two of the starters: Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. They are actually very similar pitchers in the fact that they can get strikeouts without walking many. Cain struck out 22% of the batters he faced last year while walking only 5.8%. Bumgarner actually struck out more (22.5%) while still walking only 5.8%. These two pitchers have the potential to be Cy Young pitchers, and I am expecting another very good year for them. I project Cain to give up 3.75 runs per 9 innings and Bumgarner to give up 3.34 runs per 9 innings, very good numbers for starters. They are co-aces for this pitching staff.
The rest of this pitching staff is made up of overachievers who are probably actually average or even below average pitchers. Yes, I said that Tim Lincecum, the two time Cy Young winner, is an average or below average pitcher. He has a great strikeout ratio (23%), but unlike Cain and Bumgarner, he walks way too many batters (10.9% last year). Even before the season began last year, I saw that he walked too many and gave up too many home runs to keep his Cy Young capability for long. He is also very average as a contact pitcher, getting a 0.83 GB / FB ratio. My projection has him as a 4.62 eq. run against pitcher, which is well below average for the #3 pitcher in a pitching staff. Another overrated pitcher in this staff is Barry Zito, who actually had a resurgent year last year in the "popular" pitching stats. He was 15-8 last year with a 4.15 ERA. He no longer strikes out batters (14.3%) and he still walks too many (8.8%) while not being a great contact pitcher (0.68 GB / FB ratio). He is expected to give up about 5 runs in the span of nine innings, which is well below average for a Major League starter. Rounding out the pitching staff is Ryan Vogelsong, who has put together two consecutive solid years for the Giants. He is not as bad as Zito or even Lincecum, but he still walks 7.9% of the batters he faces while only striking out 20.1%. That's not a terrible ratio, but he should be far from an all-star pitcher, which he was in 2012. I'd expect him to give up about 4.23 runs per nine innings, which makes him squarely an average pitcher. So, the team has two above average pitchers, one average pitcher, one below average pitcher, and one disaster of a pitcher, making this a below average pitching staff.
The closer, though is a very reliable pitcher, Sergio Romo. He had been the reliable set-up man for the Giants until last year, when closer Brian Wilson and Santiago Casilla struggled enough to warrant a change in closer. Romo strikes out about 29.3% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 4.7% and getting a solid GB / FB ratio of 0.94. Overall, I'd expect him to give up about 2.52 runs per 9 innings, making him an elite closer. Casilla is actually not a bad pitcher, either, but he walks too many to be considered elite. He struck out 20.2% of the batters he faced while walking 8.1%. His saving grace is that he is a very good ground ball pitcher, with a 1.22 GB / FB ratio. He is a very good set-up pitcher and is expected to help get the game to Romo in the ninth. Another late inning pitcher for the Giants is Javier Lopez. He is like a more extreme version of Casilla in that he strikes out a decent amount (18.3%), but walks even more (9.2%). In addition, the thing making Lopez a solid pitcher is his GB / FB ratio, which is at a whopping 1.48. He can be expected to give up about 3.8 runs per nine innings, which makes the late innings pitchers in this staff very good. The problem will be getting to these pitchers.
The Giants are coming off a World Series championship, and the perception is that they have done it with one or two elite hitters and an elite pitching staff. In all reality, the pitching staff outperformed its peripherals and their lineup, while not great, consists of one elite hitter (Posey) and a few very good hitters (Sandoval, Pagan, Pence). In the end, though, the Giants simply aren't a great ballclub; they just overperformed last year and got to the World Series. Cain and Bumgarner are expected to lead the pitching staff, but Lincecum is not expected to become a solid top line pitcher again and Zito is way past his prime. This all makes the Giants the fourth place team in the National League West with a 77-85 record.
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