Outside of maybe the Baltimore Orioles, the Oakland Athletics were the most surprising team in baseball last year. They shocked the baseball world when they surpassed the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers in the American League West and won the division. Like many of Billy Beane's Athletics squads, they got eliminated in the divisional round, but they still surpassed expectations. For me, they surpassed expectations by a reasonable amount; I projected them as a 79-83 team last year. Many, however, picked Oakland to be the worst team in baseball last year. It felt like a sequel to Moneyball. Can they repeat?
The unheralded star of the Oakland Athletics last year was first baseman Brandon Moss. Unless you followed the Athletics last year, you probably didn't know Moss hit for a .291/.358/.596 line last year, good for a .938 OPS. When it comes to equivalent runs per game, Moss hit for 7.058. It is very rare to get a player with over 7 eq. runs per game, and Moss was one of a very few players to exceed that threshold. It is very unlikely to repeat; his BABIP last year was .359, whereas his career BABIP was .309. In addition, he will be asked to play a bigger role; last year, he only had 296 plate appearances. Still, even if he regresses significantly, he is expected to be worth 6.309 eq. runs, which would still make him an elite hitter. The more popular star for the Athletics last year was Yoenis Cespedes, the left fielder who starred as a rookie from Cuba last year. He put together a line of .292/.356/.505 last year, good for 6.019 eq. runs. He is a very good all around hitter, with the capability to get on base at a very good rate and the capability to slug for significant power. It is difficult to project a rookie player, even an experienced rookie like Cespedes, after one year. He is expected to regress to becoming a 5.776 eq. run player, which is still very good.
The Athletics made two notable acquisitions of starters in the lineup this year. In a three way trade with the Seattle Mariners and the Washington Nationals, the Athletics acquired John Jaso, another quietly solid hitter. He is a typical Billy Beane player with an OBP significantly higher than his batting average. His line last year was .276/.394/.456, showing that while he has some power, he is a top contact hitter in the game. His BABIP (.298) was a bit higher than his career BABIP (.276), but when those numbers are both below .300, it is unknown whether the increase in BABIP was higher than average due to luck or due to regression to the mean. In my projection, it was luck last year, and he is expected to decrease from a 6.233 eq. run player to a 5.891 eq. run player. Either way, he would be a solid leadoff hitter (or at least top of the lineup hitter) for this team, getting on base for Moss and Cespedes. The other acquisition they made was Jed Lowrie, who is expected to start at third base for the Athletics in 2013 and play some shortstop and second base as well. With the Astros last year, Lowrie hit respectably, with a .244/.331/.438 line. He has power and has a decent OBP given his batting average. He is expected to be a decent top or middle of the order type player with the Athletics.
The Athletics' outfield consists of two other solid players. In center field, Coco Crisp is expected to start. Last year, he put together a .259/.325/.418 line, which was good for 4.571 eq. runs. He is a solid contributing player in a lineup, and as long as he is not a star in a lineup, he is a nice piece to have. He is expected to become a 4.805 eq. run player this year, and at a premium defensive position like center field, that is very good. He is expected to lead off for the Athletics, which is strange, given the value the Athletics generally put on OBP. Crisp's OBP is significantly below Jaso's, but in the end, it's not so low that it precludes him from being a productive leadoff hitter. The starting right fielder is expected to be Josh Reddick. Reddick put together a line of .245/.305/.463 last year, showing that he isn't a great OBP player (rare on the Athletics), but that he does have good power. He is a decent middle of the order type player, meaning he can bring in players with higher OBP but might not get on base for the bottom of the lineup, which is less likely to bring in runs anyways. Like Crisp, he is expected to improve this year; for Reddick, he is expected to improve from a 4.659 eq. run player to a 4.824 eq. run player.
The expected second baseman to begin the year is Scott Sizemore, another low BA, high OBP player. Last year, he hit for a .245/.342/.399 line. He is far from being a power hitter, but he can hit for a high OBP, making him a solid top of the order type player. The Athletics seem to have a lot of them. He is expected to regress some, from a 4.699 eq. run player to a 4.538 eq. run player, but he is still expected to be an important piece to this Athletics' lineup. The Athletics will also return designated hitter Seth Smith. Call me a broken record, but he put together a Beane-type line last year, with a .240/.333/.420 line. He is above average as a contact hitter and decent as a power hitter, making him a good option anywhere in the lineup. He is expected to improve some from a relatively low BABIP year, from a 4.735 eq. run player to a 4.973 eq. run player. The last expected member of the lineup, on the other hand, is a rookie from Japan, Hiroyuki Nakajima. As with any rookie player, especially players from other countries, it is very difficult to predict their production. Nakajima, however, is expected to struggle at the plate this year. Last year, in Japan, he hit for a .311/.382/.451 line. That looks good, and may be a sign of a good hitter; however, Japan's Major Leagues are equivalent to about an AA team in the Majors. If that line was an AA line, the Major League equivalent would be .237/.287/.332, which is only good for about 3.112 eq. runs. Again, he could prove to be a big surprise or an immense disappointment, it's very difficult to project.
Another trademark of the Athletics' lineup is the use of platoons very often. This makes the Athletics' bench very important. It is expected to be made up of catcher Derek Norris, infielders Daric Barton and Josh Donaldson, and outfielder Chris Young. Derek Norris is expected to share playing time with John Jaso on a righty/left basis. He put together a .201/.276/.349 line last year, good for 3.072 eq. runs. He will need to improve significantly if he wants to play a big offensive role with the Athletics. A .276 OBP is incredibly low for an Athletic everyday player, and over .100 points lower than John Jaso. If those stats don't change, Jaso may get a few more starts against lefties than Norris would like. Josh Donaldson is expected to share time with Brandon Moss, Hiroyuki Nakajima, and Jed Lowrie in the infield. Last year, he put together a .241/.289/.398 line. He has some power, but again, with producers like Moss and Lowrie in the lineup, his OBP will need to improve if he doesn't want to see his playing time dwindle. Chris Young, whom the Atheltics acquired from the Diamondbacks in the offseason, had a good year last year and is expected to play the platoon role with Seth Smith. Last year, Young put together a .231/.311/.434 line. He has always been a low BA, high Slug % player, but even with his low BA, he put together a solid OBP last year. It's not spectacular, but as a part-time player (especially one who plays primarily against lefties), that is a very good line.
The Athletics are expected to bring back most of their starting pitching staff from last year. The ace of the staff is expected to be Brett Anderson, who is a solid all around pitcher. Like the rest of the Athletics' pitching staff, he is only a lukewarm strikeout pitcher (18.3%), but he rarely walks anyone (5.1%) and his GB / FB ratio is exceptional (1.49 GB / FB last year). That is good for an expected eq. runs against of 2.82 eq. runs, making him not just a very good pitcher, but one of the best pitchers in the game. Also returning to the Athletics' staff will be Jarrod Parker. Parker, like Anderson, doesn't strike out that many batters (only 18.6% last year), but unlike Anderson, he struggles with walks (8.4%) and is only average as a contact pitcher (0.80 GB / FB ratio). Because of this, he is expected to give up about 4.41 eq. runs per nine innings, which isn't terrible, but the Athletics would prefer something a bit lower from their number two pitcher. Luckily for the Athletics, they are expecting a better number two pitcher to return to the rotation in veteran Bartolo Colon. Colon is currently serving a 50 game suspension for being caught with PEDs; however, his pitching line would not indicate that. He is certainly not a power pitcher (14.3%) and relies on being a solid control pitcher (3.6%) and being an average contact pitcher (0.86 GB / FB). Because of this, he is expected to be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher (3.57 expected eq. runs against), if he can take the ridicule he will take from opposing fans.
The rest of the Athletics' rotation is expected to consist of returning young players. Tom Milone has a line very similar to Colon's. He is a below average strikeout pitcher (17.3%), but very rarely walks anybody (4.6%) and is a slightly below average contact pitcher (0.64 GB / FB ratio). He is expected to give up about 3.82 eq. runs per nine innings, again very good for a middle of the rotation type pitcher. If he can continue at this pace, he will be a solid top of the rotation pitcher in the near future, albeit a non-power top of the rotation pitcher. Finishing out the rotation will be A.J. Griffin, whose line resembles Brett Anderson's without the contact pitcher. He strikes out an average amount of batters (19.1%) while walking very few (5.7%). He is a below average contact pitcher (0.61 GB / FB ratio), but even despite that, he is expected to give up fewer than 4 runs per nine innings (3.97 expected eq. runs against). Overall, this is a solid rotation with one ace, three above average middle rotation pitchers, and an average bottom of the rotation starter. This is true despite a pitching staff with a very low strikeout rate.
The Athletics' bullpen, on the other hand, is not expected to be quite as impressive. The closer is expected to start the year on the injured list. That would be Grant Balfour. He has a good strikeout rate (24.9%), but his walk rate goes along with his last name (9.7%). On top of that, he's not a very good contact pitcher (0.57 GB / FB ratio). Because of this, he is expected to give up about 4.49 runs per nine innings, which is way too high for a closer. The expected replacement closer will be Ryan Cook, who is a similar non-contact pitcher to Balfour. He strikes out batters at a good rate (27.8%) while walking too many (9.4%). He does get batters to hit into more ground balls (0.88 GB / FB ratio), so he is expected to give up about 3.81 runs per nine innings, which is much better than Balfour, but still high for a closer. The best option may be Sean Doolittle, who struck out 31.4% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 5.8%. However, his bad GB / FB ratio (0.54 GB / FB) holds him to a 3.09 expected eq. runs against. Still, that is the expected eq. runs against statistic of a closer.
The Athletics have a solid all around lineup with a lot of contact hitters. However, they depend on the platoon a lot, and this limits the plate appearances for the starting lineup. The backups, on the other hand, have struggled a bit more, which makes their lineup weaker than if their starting lineup played every day (and was able to hit equally against lefties and righties). Their pitching rotation doesn't have any flashy names, but they walk an incredibly small amount, making them a well above average rotation. The bullpen, however, has warts. This is a team that will remain in the playoff race last year. However, in the end, the big money teams will be able to keep them from playing spoiler at the end of the year. The Athletics are expected to finish third in the American League West with an 83-79 record.
We go from a team that went on a surprising playoff run last year to a team that was one of the bigger disappointments in baseball last year. For the past few years, the Phillies could be expected to have the best rotation in baseball and a well above average lineup. They had three of the most feared hitters in baseball in their infield, and their lineup paled in comparison to their rotation. However, age catches up to everybody. They traded away two significant parts of their lineup last year (Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence), and their rotation hasn't been the same since Roy Oswalt started to struggle and eventually left. Now, the Phillies are at a crossroads. They're an old team with significant contracts still on the budget. Will they come back and be a contender in 2013 or will they struggle again?
When talking about the Phillies' lineup, three names come to mind. Probably the best of the group is second baseman Chase Utley, who is coming off an injury-riddled year that saw him hit .256/.365/.429. This was not a typical year for him, and his power seems to be disappearing, as seen by his slugging percentage in the low .400s. However, even with that line, he is worth about 5.414 runs per nine innings and he got unlucky last year with a .261 BABIP. With some upward regression, he is expected to hit for about 6.177 equivalent runs, which would make him an upper echelon hitter in the game. However, he has suffered injuries in the last few years and he is not getting younger; it is possible that he is no longer a top hitter. Also returning to the middle infield for the Phillies is shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Rollins was once a top hitter in the game, and since he did that while playing a premium defensive position, he was extremely valuable. His skills have fallen, somewhat, and he is getting up there in years. Last year, he hit .250/.316/.427, showing that his power is only slightly above average and he has had more trouble than in the past at getting on base. He was worth about 4.497 eq. runs last year, which is well below his career average. Like Utley, though, he had an uncharacteristically low BABIP, meaning that he is expected to be better next year. He is expected to be worth about 4.866 eq. runs in 2013. However, there are also age concerns with Rollins, and he may continue to regress as he gets older. The third big name in this lineup is a big guy who plays first base, Ryan Howard. Howard was once seen as one of the best pure hitters in the game. However, that has fallen considerably, seeing as he put together a .219/.295/.423 line last year. His power has fallen considerably and is now only slightly above average. He was also once a good contact hitter, as seen by his .364 OBP. Last year, his OBP was .295, which is well below average. He had an injury riddled 2012, which may explain some of his downfall. However, there is concern about his age as well, as players with high power but no speed don't generally age well (if you don't believe me, please remember Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, and even Mike Sweeney). He is expected to improve from a 4.087 eq. run player to a 4.328 eq. run player, but that is still well below average for a first baseman.
Despite having a lineup containing Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard, the best hitter in the Phillies' lineup will likely be catcher Carlos Ruiz, who put together a .325/.394/.540 line last year. He had an exceptionally high OBP and Slug %, and was on pace to become one of the top catchers in the game. Unfortunately for him, however, he was caught as part of the drug program for Major League Baseball and is suspended for the first 25 games on 2013. Even if the drugs did not improve his performance, he is expected to regress in 2013. Last year, he was worth 7.114 eq. runs, and that kind of production generally does not last too long. He is expected to drop to about 6.379 eq. runs, which would still make him a top hitter in the game. The Phillies are also expected to start a returning outfielder. Once an elite prospect in the game, right fielder Domonic Brown has fallen considerably and has been playing in a platoon for the past few years. The Phillies have been impressed by his spring so far, but he still has to deal with a .235/.316/.396 line last year. He doesn't have much power or much of an ability to get on base, and is likely only continuing to get these chances because of the prospect he once was. However, a right fielder should have an eq. run statistic of over 4.2 runs. Even if he improves as I suspect he will, he will be a 4.443 eq. run player, which is well below average for a right fielder.
The rest of the everyday starting lineup is expected to be made up of newcomers. The Phillies traded Vance Worley to the Twins last offseason, and in return, they received speedy outfielder Ben Revere. However, Revere is below average as a hitter, hitting for a .294/.333/.342 line last year. Despite his speed, he is only slightly above average at getting on base and he has virtually no power. He will definitely be an asset on defense and on the basepaths, but as a starter, he is well below average. And unfortunately for the Phillies, he may be the best newcomer to the lineup. Another newcomer to the lineup will be left fielder Delmon Young, a free agent pickup from Detroit. He was once a top prospect, and he was once seen as such a clubhouse problem that he should not be in the Major Leagues. He is certainly not a top hitter in the game and is still a nuisance in the clubhouse, but he can provide some value on offense. Last year, he hit for a .267/.296/.411 line, showing he has some power but very little ability to get on base. He is expected to improve from a 3.989 eq. run player in 2012 to a 4.131 eq. run player in 2013, but that is still well below average for a left fielder. The final new piece to this lineup is going to be a clubhouse leader and a decent hitter for the last few years, Michael Young. He is seen as a great teammate and a very versatile defensive player, playing pretty much every position outside of catcher and center field in recent years. However, he is simply not the player he once was. He hit .277/.312/.370 last year. Like much of the Phillies' lineup, he was once a very good contact and power hitter, but now he is below average at both. He had an uncharacteristically bad 3.888 eq. run year last year, but he isn't expected to be much better in 2013, as a 4.109 eq. run player. It appears age has caught up to Michael Young.
As seen above, the bench may be more important than normal for the Phillies. Not only is there a history of injuries and not only are there age issues, but the lineup also has players who are suspended and injured to begin the year. The Phillies do have a very good bench, however, made up of catcher Erik Kratz, infielder Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Galvis, and outfielders John Mayberry, Jr. and Laynce Nix. Because of the suspension to Carlos Ruiz, Erik Kratz is expected to play a big role with the Phillies this year. As a backup catcher last year, Kratz showed unexpected power, as shown by his .248/.306/.504 line last year. He doesn't hit for much contact, but he can expected to hold the catcher position down reasonably until Carlos Ruiz is back. With Delmon Young expected to start the year on the injured list, Laynce Nix is expected to play a bigger role. He was once a bigger prospect in the game, but like Domonic Brown, has been a disappointment at the Major League level. Last year, he hit for a .246/.315/.412 line, which is decent for a backup, but disappointing for somebody who had the potential of Nix. He is a below average hitter for a corner outfielder, but he will continue to get chances since the Phillies don't have many better options in the corner outfield positions. One surprising player last year was backup corner infielder Kevin Frandsen, who put together a .338/.383/.451 line last year. He showed some power, but a .383 OBP is exceptional. It is very unlikely that he will be able to repeat those numbers, but with an aging corner infield consisting of Michael Young and Ryan Howard, he will get his chances.
The rotation for the Phillies was once seen as an all-time great rotation. They are no longer that great, but they are still very very good. The ace of the staff is Roy Halladay. He was once one of the top fireballing pitchers in the game. His strikeout percentage is still decent (20.4%) but it isn't as good as it once was. However, he still doesn't walk all that many (5.6%) and is an average contact pitcher (0.80 GB / FB ratio), which equates to a 3.61 eq. runs against statistic. Age is appearing to catch up to him as well, but he is still a reasonable choice at the top of the rotation. However, the best pitcher in the rotation may have been the unluckiest last year. With a 6-9 record last year and no wins through his first 13 starts last year, many pundits believe Cliff Lee lost his edge. However, he struck out a good amount of the batters he faced (24.4%) while being an elite control pitcher, as he only walked 3.3% of the batters he faced last year. Combine that with an average GB / FB ratio (0.80), and he is expected to give up 2.76 eq. runs per nine innings. That makes him one of the top pitchers in the game and he has appeared to age better than Lee. The third remaining member of the "Big Four" pitching rotation of a few years ago is long-time Phillie Cole Hamels, who is still putting together some very solid seasons. Last year, he struck out 24.9% of the batters he faced while only walking 6%. He is also an average contact pitcher (0.76 GB / FB ratio), and all of that would make him a top of the rotation starter for most teams. He is expected to give up 3.39 runs per nine innings next year, which is exceptional for a middle of the rotation starter.
The rest of the rotation isn't elite, but it's serviceable for the bottom of the rotation. Kyle Kendrick returns and is an all around average pitcher. His strikeout rate is likely slightly below normal (17.2%), his walk percentage is slightly below normal (7.3%), and his contact pitching numbers are average (0.87 GB / FB ratio). That makes him a 4.18 eq. run pitcher, which is acceptable in the middle of the rotation and which makes him essentially a league average pitcher. Filling out the rotation is former Washington National John Lannan. His career path has been different. For a while, he was seen as the top pitcher in the Nationals' rotation. His skills don't seem to have fallen much, but with a full rotation last year, Lannan was forced to the minors for most of the year last year. He was not impressive in limited time with the Nationals, with a 12.9% strikeout percentage, a 9.5% walk percentage, and a 1.24 GB / FB ratio. Those are worse than his career numbers, but he has always been a very good contact pitcher who struggles with strikeouts and walks. He is expected to give up about 4.60 runs per nine innings this year, which is fine for a fifth starter.
The closer is rightfully expected to remain former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon. He is an exceptional strikeout pitcher (32.4% last year), a very good control pitcher (6.3% last year), and an average contact pitcher (0.73 GB / FB ratio). It is very nice to have a good strikeout pitcher to close games, but it is essential to have them control their pitches as well. Papelbon has that rare combination, making him one of the top closers in the game. He is expected to give up about 2.89 runs per nine innings, very good for any pitcher. The Phillies also acquired set-up pitcher Mike Adams as a free agent from the Texas Rangers in the offseason. He isn't much of a strikeout pitcher for a reliever (19.7% last year) and he walks a fairly low number of batters (7.5%). As a contact pitcher, he is above average, giving up 0.93 GB for every FB. He is expected to give up 3.95 runs per nine innings. That is likely a little above average for a set-up man, but he is a better option that the Phillies' other option. That other option is Antonio Bastardo, who strikes out a ton of batters (36.2%). He is not a good control pitcher at all, though, giving up a walk in 11.6% of the plate appearances against last year. He is also a terrible contact pitcher, giving up about 0.40 ground balls for every fly ball last year. Because of this, he is expected to give up 4.25 runs per nine innings, which is above what the Phillies would like from an end of the bullpen pitcher.
The Phillies are a once-great team that is seeing the effects of father time. The lineup is aging, and outside of Carlos Ruiz, there is really no significant hitter in the Phillies' lineup anymore. Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard are aging, and the rest of the lineup is below average. The reason they will compete all year is their rotation, which still consists of elite pitchers in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. That rotation will keep them in many games, and will likely keep them in the playoff hunt all year. However, their weak offense will get the best of them, as they are expected to have the third worst offense in the National League (better than only the Mets and Cubs). In the end, this team looks like a .500 team, which is where I have them. They are projected to finish third in the NL East with an 81-81 record.
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