Now that I have my official 2013 projections, I will start posting them, adding one team from each league per post. I will start from the worst and build up to the best.
First, I will start with the projected worst team in the American League:
As expected, the Houston Astros, the newest members of the American League, are also projected to be the worst team in the American League this year. As a matter of fact, they are the only team that showed a projected sub-.500 record even without applying any adjusting factors to the runs scored and against statistics. They are in the fullest of full rebuilding modes and the vast majority of their lineup consists of players the average baseball fan has never heard of. They are going to go through a lot of lumps before becoming relevant again. However, most baseball experts will agree the Astros are smart to go into full rebuild mode instead of trying to cling to a .500 record every year but going nowhere.
The star of the Houston Astros last year on offense was Jose Altuve, the miniscule second baseman. He put together a solid line of .290/.340/.399 last year, showing that he can get on base at a very good clip and he even has some power. He is not the kind of player to build a successful franchise around, but I have him as a 4.575 Eq. Run player, which is not bad, especially for a second baseman. The other star of the Astros' infield last year, Jed Lowrie, was traded to Oakland in the offseason for Chris Carter, who will likely start the year manning left field. He has the highest expected Eq. Run statistic on the Astros this year, at 5.676, and he is expected to be the heart of the Astros offense this year. His line of .239/.350/.514 last year shows that he is a very patient batter with significant power. He was more of a platoon player with Oakland last year, so his line will likely take a hit from being an everyday player with Houston this year.
Two other significant offensive players returning to the Astros lineup this year are first baseman Brett Wallace and center fielder Justin Maxwell. Brett Wallace has respectably replaced Carlos Lee at first base, putting together a line of .253/.323/.424, for an equivalent run statistic of 4.593. While not mindblowing, Wallace has shown some power and a knack to get on base at a decent line and will likely get better as he gets more experience in the big leagues. Justin Maxwell put together a line of .229/.304/.460 (4.489 eq. run statistic). While he certainly cannot be depended on to get on base, he has a bit of power, something desperately needed in the Astros' lineup.
The rest of the Astros' lineup will consist of a few journeymen (Carlos Pena, Tyler Greene) and a few young players (Jason Castro, Matt Dominguez, Fernando Martinez). Carlos Pena has always been known as a power hitter, but that he has transformed into a very patient hitter in the past few years. Despite a .197 batting average last year, Pena had a .330 OBP and a .354 Slug %. He can no longer be expected to hit 40+ home runs, but he could still be a valuable piece to this lineup. Tyler Greene, on the other hand, is a marginal baseball player at best. His defense isn't spectacular and his line last year was .230/.274/.400, which is a line that is more suited for a defensive specialist. Jason Castro has been inconsistent and has been injured quite a bit over the past few years, but when he plays, he puts together a decent line for a catcher, which is the position in baseball where one can expect the least offense production (.257/.334/.401). Matt Dominguez is probably the only player in this lineup who is inexperienced enough but talented enough to be considered a decent prospect. His line last year of .273/.304/.435 is nothing to scoff at, but the Astros are hoping for even more from him this year and in the future. Fernando Martinez was part of the revolving door outfield last year but he has some power (.466 Slug %), which puts him in the lead for a starting outfield spot to begin the year. If he can continue to put together some power numbers, he will be an important piece to this Astros' lineup.
The bench for the Astros is expected to consist of defensive specialist catcher (and personal favorite) Carlos Corporan, utility infielder Marwin Gonzalez, veteran outfielder Rick Ankiel, and former starter J.D. Martinez. J.D. Martinez is likely the only player of this group to have a meaningful impact for the Astros. He has, in the past, been able to put together a reasonable offensive season, but his star has fallen and now finds himself behind Carter, Maxwell, and Fernando Martinez in the outfield.
The pitching staff also consists of a lot of unknown players. The ace of the staff and the longest-tenured Astro is Bud Norris. He is able to strike out players at a strong clip (22.5%), but his walk percentage (9%) and his groundball/fly ball percentage (0.65) leave a lot to be desired. Other returning starters include Lucas Harrell and Jordan Lyles. My favorite pitcher of the bunch is Jordan Lyles, who does not strike batters out at a good clip (15.80%), but is able to keep walks down (6.70%) and is better at getting ground balls (1.16). Lucas Harrell is more of a contact pitcher; he strikes out pitchers at a 16.9% clip, walks them at a 9.4% clip, but has a 1.36 GB/FB ratio. Filling up the rotation will be two newcomers: Phil Humber and Erik Bedard. Phil Humber comes from the White Sox, and he is a marginal pitcher at best. His strikeout percentage is average (18.4%), but his walk percentage (9.5%) and his GB/FB ratio (0.54) are, simply put, bad. Erik Bedard used to be a solid pitcher but he is well past his prime. He walks way too many batters (10.10% last year) to offset his decent strikeout percentage (21.20%).
The bullpen will be led by closer Jose Veras and setup men Wesley Wright and Hector Ambriz. One issue I find with closers is that they are often put in that position strictly because of their strikeout percentage. Ambriz struck out 19.20%, Wright struck out 24.20%, and Veras struck out 26.30%. Therefore, it seems that Veras is the opening day closer (which, let's be honest, isn't a position that the Astros will need all that often this year). He simply walks too many batters to be effective (13.30% last year) and isn't enough of a contact pitcher to offset that (0.85 GB / FB). Wesley Wright is the best reliever with the Astros, in my opinion, and that's because he walks only 7.6% of the batters he faced last year while getting more ground balls (1.29) and striking out nearly as much as Veras. Ambriz is another intriguing option, but he doesn't strike out as many as Wright, he walks more (9.10%), and he doesn't get as many ground balls as a contact pitcher (0.76).
The Astros will be in the cellar of the American League West this year with a projected record of 67-95.
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15. Miami Marlins
Another shocker here, I have the Miami Marlins as the worst team in the National League in 2013. Last year, the Marlins were a fashionable pick to win the National League East, or at least make the playoffs. That didn't happen. The Nationals won the division, and the Braves, Phillies, and Mets all finished ahead of the Marlins in the division as well, as the Marlins disappointed its fan by going 69-93. In the offseason, cheapskate owner played his tricks again, selling off the most expensive players on the roster for young prospects and marginal Major Leaguers. In all reality, it's not the most terrible of strategies, except the Marlins don't have a consistent fan base and the people of Miami are now stuck with a terrible team to play in a baseball stadium they largely funded. In the meantime, Loria makes profits by taking the league's revenue sharing money.
From last year's starting lineup, catcher John Buck, first baseman Carlos Lee, second baseman Omar Infante, shortstop Jose Reyes, third baseman Hanley Ramirez, and outfielder Emilio Bonifacio are gone. Still remaining (albeit disgruntled) is right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, one of the elite power hitters in baseball. He put up a line of .290/.361/.608 last year, good for an Eq. Run statistic of 7.252. One of the statistics I look at to determine if the player overperformed or underperformed in a given year is BABIP (batting average on balls in play). The league average BABIP is in the .290 - .300 range, meaning that when a ball is hit into play (i.e., not a strikeout or a home run), the average player will hit for about a .290 - .300 average. Some players can outperform that and some will underperform that, but generally, that's a good starting point in determining how lucky a player has been. He overperformed that a bit last year by hitting for a .344 BABIP, but I regressed it to an amount below his career average and I'm still expecting an expected eq. run statistic of 6.901 for him this year. That keeps him as a very elite hitter in baseball. One may wonder, however, how motivated he will be to play this year. He has been vocally unhappy about the Marlins' offseason moves this year.
Also returning to the Marlins lineup this year will be Justin Ruggiano and Logan Morrison. Justin Ruggiano, a longtime middling backup outfielder, got his chance with the Marlins last year and ran with it, to a .313/.374/.535 line last year. While it is unlikely he can match those numbers this year, he will likely start the year as the Marlins' most prolific hitter not named Giancarlo. That's a scary thought, given that prior to last year, he was not even a sure-thing major leaguer. Logan Morrison, on the other hand, came up as a good prospect and has survived as a corner outfielder and first baseman for the Marlins. His stats have not been spectacular (.230/.308/.399 line last year), but keep in mind he had a fairly unlucky BABIP of .248. If he can even get to the league average BABIP level, which shouldn't be out of the question for somebody who has been a three-year starter in the Majors, he could be a good hitter in the Marlins' lineup and could help Ruggiano and Stanton put together some runs.
Second baseman Donovan Solano also returns for the Marlins. He took over the second base job after Omar Infante was traded, along with Anibal Sanchez, to the Tigers. He put together a decent year with a .295/.342/.375 line, but he had an extraordinarily high BABIP of .357 last year. Some players will have higher BABIPs than others, but very few elite hitters can achieve a BABIP of .357 over a long period of time. Solano will go through his lumps, and it is unreasonable to expect another line like his line last year. I'm expecting an Eq. Run statistic of 3.925 for him this year, down from 4.476 last year. This would make him a below average hitting second baseman. Another returner is catcher Rob Brantly, although his role will expand from his minor backup role to John Buck last year. His line was spectacular (.290/.372/.460) but his BABIP was high (.321) and he has a small sample size. I'm expecting him to take a step back this year.
The rest of the starting lineup for the Marlins will be new. The Marlins received shortstop prospect Adeiny Hechevarria in the trade with the Blue Jays this offseason, and he is expected to start the year at the position. He is very young and still somewhat raw, which can be seen in his meager line with the Blue Jays last year (.254/.280/.365), but he can be expected to improve and will likely be a keystone for the Marlins for years to come.
Also new to the Marlins lineup are two older free agents: left fielder Juan Pierre and third baseman Placido Polanco. Pierre is coming off a very good year for the Phillies. Once known as one of the fastest players in the game, Pierre has slowed down considerably and now has to depend a lot more on his bat to get significant playing time. He hit well enough to get a full time job with the Phillies last year (.307/.351/.371) but his career indicates he may have overachieved. Placido Polanco, on the other hand, underachieved pretty significantly last year (.257/.302/.327). He has been a dependable infielder in the past, but his age might be catching up to him. I expect him to improve a bit next year (his BABIP last year was .274) but not significantly enough for him to be a major piece for a Major League Baseball team.
The bench for the Marlins is fairly weak as well. The bench consists of catcher Jeff Mathis (.218/.249/.393), infielder Nick Green (.225/.291/.347), infielder Greg Dobbs (.283/.313/.386), utility player Chone Figgins (.181/.262/.271), and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez (.192/.267/.301). Out of this group, Greg Dobbs is the most dependable hitter. He has been a long-time bench player who has the knack to occasionally get a big hit, but you don't want to play him every day, especially since he plays positions (first base and third base) that are usually played by solid hitters. Still, he's a solid player off the bench. The rest of the bench, on the other hand, are on the bench because they play catcher (Mathis), for defense (Green, Figgins), or because of their speed (Hernandez).
The pitching staff for the Marlins isn't really anything to write home about either. Ricky Nolasco returns as the de facto ace of the staff. He is a good control pitcher (5.7% walk percentage) but he doesn't strike out many and is, in all reality, an average starter at this point. For a good team, he would be a number 3 or 4 pitcher; for the Marlins, he is the clear number one guy. Don't be surprised if he is traded sometime over the course of the season. The other top pitcher for the Marlins came over in the trade with Toronto: Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez makes his living as a contact pitcher, with a groundball/fly ball ratio of 1.33 last year. He does not strike out many batters at all (9.8%) but he also doesn't walk many (6.7%). If he can maintain his abilities as a contact pitcher but also develop a dominating pitch or two, he could be a very good pitcher; potentially the best for the Marlins.
Also returning are starters Wade LeBlanc, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob Turner. LeBlanc and Turner are very similar pitchers, based on their statistics last year (LeBlanc had a 15.1% strikeout percentage and 6.7% walk percentage whereas Turner had a 15.6% strikeout percentage and a 6.9% walk percentage last year); however, as a contact pitcher, Turner had a fairly average ground ball / fly ball ratio (0.86) whereas LeBlanc was well below average (0.55). Turner has a better upside based on this, but he's also less experienced in this role. Nathan Eovaldi also has a similar strikeout percentage (14.8%) but he walks too many batters (8.9%). As a contact pitcher, he's average (0.85).
Another player the Marlins let go after the past season was closer Heath Bell, a huge disappointment with the Marlins with a 5.09 ERA. Replacing him was Steven Cishek, who performed better (2.69 ERA) but who certainly got a bit lucky in doing so. Again, this is a case of a pitcher having a good strikeout ratio (24.7%) getting the role, although the other options are not that much better. Cishek does walk too many hitters (10.6% last year), but his ground ball / fly ball ratio made up for most of that (1.09) and his expected runs against is 4.09. That is certainly not great, but it's hard to find someone much better in the Marlins bullpen.
The other options for the Marlins are veteran Jon Rauch and younger Ryan Webb. Rauch is more of a control pitcher; he only struck out 18% of the batters he faced last year but he only walked 5.2%. As a contact pitcher, though, he is not good; his ground ball / fly ball ratio was only 0.58. He gives up a lot of home runs and extra base hits, which leads to a lot more runs that groundball hits, which are usually singles. Webb strikes out even less than Rauch (16.3%) and has a near average walk percentage (7.4%), but his advantage is that he is a good contact pitcher with a ground ball / fly ball ratio of 1.09. Cishek (4.09), Rauch (3.98), and Webb (4.01) have nearly identical equivalent runs against statistics, so to me, they are pretty interchangable. A smart manager may use a committee where Cishek pitches to players who are susceptible to strikeouts, Rauch pitches to patient hitters, and Webb pitches to players who depend on contact. Still, the closer role is not one that the Marlins will need to worry about much this year.
The Marlins had a disappointing year last year, and they took a step back in talent this year. Even worse, they took about 10 miles' worth of steps back with fan relations last year, so we can expect the Marlins to finish amongst the worst teams in baseball in a stadium with hundreds of fans. My official projection is last place in the NL East, with a 69-93 record.
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