After the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Kansas City Royals are likely the most consistently pitiful franchise in baseball. They have had a winning season in the last 20 years, but for the most part, they are bottom feeders in a weak American League Central division. Things are looking up for this franchise, though, as a group of youngsters who the Royals picked up with excellent draft picks are starting to make their mark in the Majors. Still, though, they are likely a few years away from being relevant.
The backbone for this Royals' lineup is their designated hitter Billy Butler. He is an excellent contact hitter (.373 OBP) but he also has significant power (.510 slug %), making him one of the more underrated young hitters in Major League Baseball. While it is unlikely that he can continue putting together a .313/.373/.510 line, he isn't expected to regress much in 2013. He is expected to fall from being a 6.391 eq. run player to becoming a 6.088 eq. run player. While he is likely the best hitter in the Royals' lineup, he is not the only good bat in this lineup. Alex Gordon is returning and expected to start in left field for the Royals this year. He looked like a bust a few years ago, but the Royals likely brought Gordon up too early and he could have still used some seasoning in AAA. With more time at AAA, he was able to come back up to the Majors and succeed at a .294/.368/.455 clip. He is expected to regress a bit more than Butler in 2013 (from 5.728 eq. runs to 5.205 eq. runs) but he is still a very good hitter in this lineup.
One of the most unknown names in the Royals lineup is catcher Salvador Perez, who put together a solid .301/.328/.471 in over 300 plate appearances last year. The fascinating thing about Perez, though, is that he likely hasn't reached his potential yet and he was likely unlucky last year with a .299 BABIP (his career BABIP is .320). If he can maintain that BABIP, or if he could improve on it, he could become one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. Also returning to the Royals lineup after a disappointing year is first baseman Eric Hosmer. His line last year was disappointing at .232/.304/.359, especially after a very good 2011 season that saw him hit .293/.334/.465. Hosmer likely isn't as good a hitter as Butler, Gordon, or even Perez, but he is certainly a better hitter than he showed last year. He is expected to be a hitter whose talent falls between his disappointing 2012 season and his very good 2011 season.
Another two players in this lineup are still producing after a trade involving Zack Greinke brought him to Kansas City from Milwaukee two years ago. Returning to play shortstop is Alcides Escobar. Escobar is seen as more of a defensive shortstop, but he is able to hit well enough to warrant a starting spot. Last year, he put together a line of .293/.331/.390. He is never going to be a spectacular power hitter, but his patience at the plate could still be improved. If he can bring his OBP up closer to .350, he would be a very well-rounded shortstop. Also returning is center fielder Lorenzo Cain. He was involved in the same trade as Alcides Escobar, and he has many of the same traits. He can field very well, he has significant speed, and while he can hit well enough to warrant a starting spot (.266/.316/.419 last year), he could become so much better with increased patience at the plate.
The remainder of the lineup consists of third baseman Mike Moustakas, second baseman Chris Getz, and right fielder Jeff Francoeur. Moustakas is likely the best hitter in the group, though his low OBP severely limits the impact he makes on offense. Last year, he put together a line of .242/.296/.412. His OPS did exceed .700, but he needs to improve his OBP if he wants to be a solid top of the lineup hitter in the Majors. Chris Getz is expected to start at second base but share time with youngster Johnny Giavotella. Neither of these hitters is really expected to make much of an impact at the plate, but Getz (.275/.312/.360 line last year) is likely to provide more value on offense. Giavotella may grow into the role in the near future, but to become an everyday fixture in the lineup, he will have to improve on his .238/.270/.304 line last year significantly. Rounding out the lineup is a player who is statistically one of the weaker players in baseball, Jeff Francoeur. He is likely in the starting lineup largely because of his cannon of an arm in right field. It probably isn't because of his hitting (.235/.287/.378 last year) in a position traditionally held by good offense, poor defensive players.
Outside of Johnny Giavotella, the rest of the Royals' bench is expected to consist of catcher George Kottaras, infielder Elliot Johnson, and outfielder Jarrod Dyson. Outside of Giavotella, the most intriguing name of this bunch is the underrated George Kottaras. Kottaras is not one of the strongest players behind the plate, but he has an insane ability to get on base despite maintaining a low batting average. It was really little wonder that the Athletics traded for him last year, and it was a bit surprising he was squeezed out of a role with the Athletics before this season. He hit .211/.351/.415 last year, and could be an underrated bat off the bench who can also marginally catch.
The Royals' pitching staff is entirely different that it was last year due to free agent pickups and pickups via trade. One of the more intriguing trades this offseason involved the Royals acquiring James Shields and Wade Davis for prospects. James Shields is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He succeeds in all three major areas for pitchers; last year, he struck out 23.6% of the batters he faced while walking only 6.1%, and being a good contact pitcher who holds a 1.12 GB / FB ratio. He goes from being a middle of the rotation starter with the Rays to becoming the true ace of the Royals' staff. Wade Davis is expected to be a middle of the rotation starter with the Royals. He can do everything adequately; strikes batters out at a 17.8% rate, walks batters at an 8.5% rate, and gets ground balls at a 0.60 rate. He is below average in all of these fields, but he is young and is expected to improve over time. The other big pickup for the Royals' pitching staff was former Los Angeles Angel Ervin Santana. He is like Wade Davis in that he is adequate or slightly below average in all three of the major categories of pitching (17.4% K %, 8% BB %, and 0.81 GB / FB ratio). At this point in his career, Santana is probably better suited for a bottom of the rotation type role, but he is expected to be a middle of the rotation starter for the Royals.
The Royals will return two starters, however. Jeremy Guthrie returns and is expected to be a middle of the rotation starter and innings eater. He does not strike out many batters (12.8%) but his walk rate (6.4%) makes up for the weak strikeout ratio. He is an average contact pitcher (0.69 GB / FB ratio), and is expected to give up about 4.54 runs per 9 innings. The Royals likely overpaid for him in the free agent market, but he could be a rotation saver by being able to go deep into games. He just likely won't win a majority of them. Also returning is Bruce Chen, who will likely be the number 5 starter for the Royals. He is actually a very good control pitcher (5.7% BB %) but his strikeout percentage is lacking (16.9% K%). Even worse, he is a well below average contact pitcher (0.49 GB / FB ratio), so he will likely remain a bottom of the rotation type starter for the Royals.
Royals manager Ned Yost seems to fall into the trap of putting the best strikeout pitcher in as the closer. Greg Holland is expected to start the year as the closer for the Royals. His strikeout percentage is very good (31.5% last year), but his very high walk percentage (11.8%) and average GB/FB ratio (0.82) make him a very errant pitcher and a dangerous choice for the end of the bullpen. He is expected to give up about 4.16 runs per 9 innings, which is much more than a top reliever should. A more reasonable option to close games is Kelvin Herrera, who doesn't strike out as many as Holland (22.4%), but who more than makes up for it with a 6.1% walk percentage and a 1.25 GB / FB ratio. He isn't nearly as flashy as Holland but he is expected to give up over a full run fewer than Holland (3.02) per nine innings. Another late inning pitcher for the Royals is Aaron Crow. He does strike out more batters than Herrera (25%), but his higher walk percentage (8.5%) makes him less effective than Herrera. He is also a very good contact pitcher (1.10), so a good manager should recognize he is a very good option for high leverage situations.
The Royals are a team on the rise, but they are still likely a year or two away from making a big improvement into .500 land and wild card land. For the time being, though, the Royals will likely struggle this year though they may show some improvement from last year. They have a talented young lineup and a decent pitching staff, but the lack of star power on offense and an effective rotation from top to bottom will hold the Royals down this year. They are expected to finish third in the AL Central this year with a 75-87 record.
The San Diego Padres have been a struggling franchise for the past few years and it looked like they were going to be cellar dwellers again last year in the National League West. In the second half of the year last year, it looked like the Padres may have turned a corner and become a playoff contender. They fell off by the end of the year and weren't all that close to actually making the playoffs, but they showed some fight at the end of the year last year. Will that fight carry over and will the Padres contend this year?
When talking about the San Diego offense, it all begins with third baseman Chase Headley, who really solidified his status as a great young hitter in the game last year. He hit for a .286/.376/.498 line last year, which seems very good. However, he plays half of his games at Petco Park, a notorious pitchers' ballpark, and he hit over 30 home runs. Put him in another ballpark, and he could be expected to be a .900+ OPS player. He is a very talented young hitter and the Padres hope he can continue to put up explosive numbers to give the Padres a spark they have been missing in the past few years. Another potential spark for the Padres offense comes from oft-injured left fielder Carlos Quentin. Quentin's average is slightly lower than Headley's, but other than that, his line is eerily similar to Headley's (.261/.374/.504). When healthy, Quentin is a second excellent hitter in this Padres' lineup, but staying healthy is not something Quentin has excelled at in past years. Last year, he only had 340 plate appearances and he will need to be a full-time player for the Padres' lineup to see a vast improvement.
One of the surprising young players in the Padres' lineup last year was catcher Yasmani Grandal, who became a top of the lineup hitter with a .297/.394/.469 line last year. He looked like a surprising young player for the Padres who could be a valuable hitter in this lineup in the upcoming year. However, a lot of that promise fell off when Grandal was caught with a failed drug test and he will begin the 2013 season serving a 50 game suspension. It is unclear how much the PEDs helped, but he is still likely going to be a solid contributor for the Padres once he is in full swing with the Padres this year. Another young contributor in this Padres' lineup is first baseman Yonder Alonso. Alonso put together a .273/.348/.393 in his rookie year last year, and is expected to be another power bat in a potentially dangerous Padres' lineup this year. Again, his numbers likely aren't as good as they could be on other teams because he plays half his games at Petco Park, but he is likely to become a solid middle of the lineup contributor for this Padres team.
A somewhat underrated piece of the Padres' starting lineup can be found in right field, Will Venable. He is not an overpowering player, but he put together a solid line of .264/.335/.429 last year. He may not be able to recreate those stats, but Venable is still expected to be a solid bat in the middle of the lineup for the Padres. A few years ago, a player like Venable would be one of the biggest contributors in the lineup. However, the Padres' lineup has significantly more potential this year and Venable is a supporting player in the starting lineup. The last member of the Padres' lineup this year is centerfielder Cameron Maybin. Once one of the most promising prospects in baseball, Maybin has a bit of a disappointment and is likely still getting chances to be an everyday player because of his former potential. In all reality, his line last year (.243/.306/.349) screams backup outfielder more than starter. He has not hit for much power and has trouble getting on base. He may have a hard time continuing to start in center field for the Padres if he continues to put up those numbers.
Finishing up the lineup will be two light hitting infielders. Logan Forsythe returns and will start the year as the starting second baseman for the Padres. He put together a .701 OPS last year (.273/.343/.390), and he has done that with little power. He is good at getting on base, and since he can do that at a position where defensive ability is at a premium, Forsythe is secure in the starting lineup. The shortstop, Everth Cabrera, also seems safe in the starting lineup, although his case is much less impressive than Forsythe's. Last year, he put together a line of .246/.324/.324, and was consistently the leadoff hitter for the Padres. This just shows the folly of putting a speedy guy at the top of the order. His OBP wasn't terrible, but there are many better options as leadoff hitter for the Padres, including Logan Forsythe and Will Venable.
Once Yasmani Grandal is back with the Padres, the bench will consist of catcher Nick Hundley, outfielder Mark Kotsay, utility players Jesus Guzman and Alexi Amarista, and outfielder Chris Denorfia. Hundley will see his role expand for the first 50 games this season, as he will be the starting catcher to begin the year. However, he has not had success in this role in the past. He is coming off an injury, but even before the injury, he put together a pitiful .157/.219/.245 line last year, which is good for a mere 1.285 eq. runs. He will need to improve those numbers if he wants to remain on the Padres, and he will need to significantly improve those numbers if he wants to remain the starter for the first 50 games of the year this year. Chris Denorfia is a solid bench bat, and he may share time in the outfield with Cameron Maybin this year. Last year, he put together a line of .293/.345/.451, which is good for 5.260 eq. runs. If he can keep that up, it will be very difficult to keep him out of the starting lineup.
The San Diego Padres' weakpoint is undoubtedly its pitching staff, which has a lot of players who simply aren't that good or players who were good 10 years ago. The number one pitcher in the pitching staff will be Edinson Volquez, whom the Padres received in the trade sending Mat Latos to the Reds last year. Volquez has been extremely erratic, once being a top pitcher in the game and following that up by falling back down to the minor leagues. Last year, he had a decent season, but his underlying stats show a different story. He strikes out a decent number of batters (21.7%), but his walk rate is way too high for him to be effective (13.1%). Despite a good GB / FB rate (1.04), he is expected to give up about 5.00 runs per 9 innings, way too many for any pitcher, especially a so-called number one pitcher. The Padres will also return innings eater Clayton Richard. Richard is pretty much the opposite of Volquez; he does not strike out many batters at all (11.8%), but he rarely walks batters (4.6%). This makes his contact pitching more important and his 1.15 GB / FB ratio makes him a decent contact pitcher. He is likely the best pitcher in the Padres' rotation. Also returning to the Padres' pitching staff is Eric Stults. Stults is very similar to Richard with strikeouts (13.3%) and walks (6.5%), but his contact pitching (0.68 GB / FB ratio) is not at Richard's level. He will remain in the middle of the rotation, but his expected eq. runs against is about 4.54, which is not very good.
The rest of the Padres' rotation consists of players who were once elite pitchers in the early 2000s. Jason Marquis will return to the Padres' rotation. He has never been an overly overpowering pitcher, and last year was no exception. He only struck out 16.2% of the batters he faced, and he gave up an average number of walks (7.5%). He depends a lot on his contact pitching, and his 1.11 GB / FB ratio shows that he can still pitch at a decent level. Rounding out the Padres' rotation will be Freddy Garcia, another pitcher who reached his peak in the early 2000s. Garcia was once a more overpowering pitcher and he can still strike out his share of batters (19.3% last year), but, like Marquis, he is an average control pitcher (7.6% last year). He does need to depend on strikeouts, though, since his GB / FB ratio is below average (0.68).
The closer for the Padres is expected to be Huston Street. He is probably the best option for the closer's role since he is an excellent strikeout pitcher (32.6%) without walking all that many batters (7.6%). His GB / FB rate is slightly below average (0.71), but given his strikeout prowess and the fact that he plays half of his games at cavernous Petco Park, that is acceptable. The set-up man is expected to be Luke Gregerson, who does not strike out as many as Street (24.5%), but who has a good walk percentage (7.1%) and a much better GB / FB ratio (1.03). Street is expected to give up 3.21 runs per nine innings and Gregerson is expected to give up 3.35 runs per nine innings, making them a solid one-two bunch at the end of the bullpen. The Padres are also going to depend heavily on strikeout pitcher Brad Brach. His strikeout rate would be exceptional (26.8%), but his walk rate (11.8%) more than offsets that strikeout rate. In addition, he is not a great ground ball pitcher (0.57 GB / FB ratio), so he is a much more risky option out of the bullpen than Street and Gregerson.
The Padres have a young but improving starting lineup. For once, the lineup for the Padres will likely be more of an asset than a liability. However, the pitching staff is old, erratic, and unimpressive. Can the talented line-up offset that less talented rotation and keep the Padres in the playoff hunt? It doesn't seem so, as the Padres are expected to finish last in the NL West this year with a 77-85 record.
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