There were plenty of disappointing teams in baseball last year, but none were more disappointing than ESPN favorite, the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox were expected to compete for a division title, but did not. As a matter of fact, they finished dead last in the American League Central, a position they are not used to. This year, the American League East is expected to be more deep; the Yankees and Orioles made the playoffs last year, the Blue Jays made significant improvements, and the Rays have been good consistently since 2008. Can the Red Sox compete in this division?
The Red Sox lineup just wouldn't be the same without their star designated hitter, David Ortiz. David Ortiz has been one of the great power hitters in baseball for a while now, and he seems to get even better as he ages. Last year, he had a spectacular line of .318/.415/.611, good for a 1.026 OPS and an astounding equivalent run statistic of 8.321 runs. On top of that, he didn't seem to get extraordinarily lucky last year; his BABIP was not significantly higher than his career average. It was a little higher, but even if he regresses some, he is expected to be worth 8.014 eq. runs in 2013. That number is not only good for best on the Red Sox, that would be good for best in the Majors. Also returning is all around solid player and former MVP Dustin Pedroia, the starting second baseman. Last year, he hit for a .290/.347/.449 line. That isn't bad, but it's not what he is used to. He is expected to improve some in 2013 and go from being a 5.277 eq. run player in 2012 to a 5.436 eq. run player in 2013. In a lineup with Ortiz, Pedroia's bat is sufficient to be one of the best remaining bats in the lineup. With his decent OBP, he could be a top of the lineup hitter, but his slugging percentage is high enough to warrant a spot in the middle of the lineup. He should be expected to be a solid hitter in 2013, though he may not be quite at his MVP self.
The Red Sox obviously disappointed a lot last year, so it was not out of the question for them to make improvements in their lineup. They did sign a few players to add some meat to their lineup. At first base, the former catcher Mike Napoli is expected to start. In 2011, Napoli was a top 10 hitter in the game playing catcher for the Rangers. 2012 was a bit of a disappointment for him, but he still hit for a .227/.343/.469. Despite his low average, he was still able to get on base at a very good rate and still showed some power, though not as much as 2011. He is expected to improve from a 5.405 eq. run player to a 5.698 eq. run player strictly from a stats standpoint, but he might player better as well because he is going from the most physically demanding everyday position in baseball (catcher) to the least (first base). The Red Sox also added shortstop Stephen Drew. Drew was once one of the top prospects in the game, but has struggled a bit more than expected at the big league level. After a disappointing half season, the Diamondbacks let Drew go and he was signed by the Athletics. In all reality, he put together a decent line of .265/.328/.433 last year, and he was coming off a serious injury. He is expected to improve a bit as well in 2013, from being a 4.771 eq. run player in 2012 to a 5.093 eq. run player in 2013. When you have a 5+ eq. run player at shortstop, that is a clear plus.
The third major pickup to this lineup this year will be left fielder Jonny Gomes, who is expected to start the year as the starting left fielder. He has been a solid hitter from the right-sided part of the plate, but he is expected to do more with the Red Sox and be an everyday player. He put together a line of .262/.377/.491 last year, showing he has good power and good contact skills. He put together a very high 6.266 eq. runs in 2012, but between normal regression and additional at-bats against righties, he is expected to go down to being a 5.484 eq. run player. Finally, the Red Sox picked up former Phillie and Dodger Shane Victorino to play right field. Last year, with the Phillies and Dodgers, Victorino put together a line of .255/.321/.383. He does not have much power, and his OBP isn't very high either. He is overrated because of his speed and his past, but was still a 4.168 eq. run player last year. He is expected to improve a little bit in 2013 and become a 4.354 eq. run player. It is well below average for a right fielder, but this team has a lot of firepower and should be able to take on a 4.354 eq. run player in a normally offensively heavy position.
The Red Sox will have a few familiar names to finish out the lineup. The best player in this group is likely the expected starting third baseman Will Middlebrooks. Middlebrooks was one of the few bright spots with the Red Sox last year, putting together a .288/.325/.509 line. It is hard to argue that he was a good power hitter last year, and he doesn't have negative value as a contact batter. As a 5.493 eq. run player last year, he was an important part of the Red Sox's lineup last year. Even if he regresses as expected to a 5.036 eq. run player, he will be very valuable to this lineup. Perhaps a more well-known name but less productive name is Jacoby Ellsbury, the center fielder. He plays in a defensive heavy position, but his line last year of .271/.313/.370 wasn't good. He has very little power, and despite his speed, he had a lower than expected OBP. On top of that, his BABIP wasn't exceptionally low last year, so he isn't expected to improve much next year. He was a 3.906 eq. run player in 2012 and is only expected to improve to a 4.056 eq. run player in 2013. Finishing out the lineup will be catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Saltalamacchia has some power, but his contact hitting is missing as shown by a .222/.288/.454 line. As a catcher, defense is the most important thing; however, offense matters as well. A .454 Slug % is a plus, but the team would prefer somebody with at least a .300 OBP last year. Even with the power, he was only worth 4.271 eq. runs last year. His BABIP was a bit low last year, however, and he is expected to improve to a 4.763 eq. run player next year, which is perfectly acceptable for a catcher.
The Red Sox's lineup is very good, but their bench isn't bad. It is expected to be made up of catcher David Ross, first baseman and corner outfielder Mike Carp, infielder Pedro Ciriaco, and outfielder Daniel Nava. Mike Carp was once a decent prospect for the Mariners, but he was designated for assignment a few weeks ago. The Red Sox did eventually acquire him, but he will have to put together a line significantly better than the .213/.312/.341 he did last year to be a big piece for this Red Sox bench. He has shown better power and contact skills in the past, but he was only worth 3.629 eq. runs last year. He is expected to improve to 4.211 eq. runs, but as a player at a non-defensive premium position, he will be expected to be much better than even that. One player who got more playing time than expected last year was outfielder Daniel Nava. In an outfield with Gomes, Ellsbury, and Victorino, he figures to see less playing time in 2013. However, he put together a decent line last year of .243/.352/.390, and if he can continue to get on base at a .352 clip, there is no reason he can't find playing time in that outfield. As a matter of fact, he was worth about 4.799 eq. runs in 2012 and is expected to improve to 4.881 eq. runs in 2013. That would be better than Ellsbury and Victorino.
The Red Sox lineup is pretty solid, but the pitching staff is best described as "average". The top pitcher in the staff is Jon Lester. Lester, however, is essentially an average pitcher. He strikes out about 19% of the batters he faces while walking 7.8%. On top of that, he has a fairly average 0.99 GB / FB ratio, making him an overall average pitcher. He is expected to give up about 4.01 eq. runs in 2013. This isn't terrible, but most teams expect much more from the so-called "ace" of their staff. As a middle of the rotation starter, Lester would be fine, but he needs to be better to be considered an ace. The Red Sox will also bring back Clay Buchholz, who is expected to be the number two pitcher in this staff. However, his stats aren't that great either. He strikes out relatively few batters (16.1%) and for a pitcher who doesn't strike out that many, he walks way too much (8%). His GB / FB ratio was ok at 0.94 last year. He is expected to give up about 4.35 eq. runs per nine innings in 2013. For a bottom of the rotation starter, that would be fine, but for a number two pitcher, that's too high. Also expected to return to the Red Sox lineup is Felix Doubront. Doubront is a solid strikeout pitcher (23.6%) but he walks a lot of batters (10%). He is a slightly below average contact hitter, getting about 0.79 GB for every FB. In all, he is expected to give up about 4.40 eq. runs per nine innings. As a middle of the rotation starter, that is fair, but he would fit better at the bottom of a rotation.
The Red Sox did add a piece to their rotation through free agency. After another solid season with the Cubs and the Rangers last year, Ryan Dempster is expected to be a middle of the rotation starter for the Red Sox this year. He is getting older, but his strikeout rate is still solid (21.3%) without walking all that many batters (7.3%). As a contact pitcher, he gives up about 0.78 GB for every FB, so he is a slightly below average contact pitcher. Dempster has been continuing to put up solid seasons, but he is getting up there in years. He could continue to be solid, but there is always a chance he regresses as he gets older. One of the most disappointing signing for the Red Sox in recent years is starter John Lackey. He has been nothing but disappointing with the Red Sox after being given a lucrative deal. He is coming off a major injury that kep him out for all of 2013, but in 2012, he put together a season with a 14.5% strikeout percentage, 7.5% walk percentage, and gave up 0.70 GB for every fly ball. That is not good for a non-strikeout pitcher, and he is expected to give up about 4.65 eq. runs per nine innings, not a good number. He is satisfactory for a bottom of the rotation starter, but the Red Sox would like to see improvement.
The Red Sox struggled so much to begin the year because of their bullpen, or lack thereof. To help improve the bullpen, the Red Sox acquired Joel Hanrahan from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Before last year, he was one of the top closers in the game, but he really struggled last year. His more well-known stats may not have shown it, but he struck out a decent number (26.4%) of the batters he faced last year, but he walked way too many batters (14.2%). He also isn't a great contact pitcher, getting 0.61 GB for every FB last year. He is expected to give up 5.41 eq. runs per nine innings, which is way too high for a closer. He may find his control again this year, but right now, the expectation is that he implodes and becomes another disappointing pitcher for the Red Sox. The closer last year for the Red Sox, Andrew Bailey, would likely be just as bad. He is not nearly the strikeout pitcher Hanrahan was last year, striking out 18.9% of the batters he faced. He doesn't walk as many as Hanrahan (10.8%), but it's still way too high for any pitcher, especially one who only strikes out 18.9% of the batters he faces. He is also a well below average contact pitcher, giving up 0.49 ground balls for every fly ball. He is expected to give up about 5.34 runs per nine innings in 2013, way too high for an end of the bullpen pitcher. The best closing option for the Red Sox would be Koji Uehara. Uehara strikes out nearly a third of the batters he faces (33.1% last year) but he very rarely walks anybody (2.3%). His contact pitching is bad, just about as bad as Bailey's (0.48 GB / FB) but despite that, he is a top reliever on the team, expected to give up about 2.23 runs per nine innings.
The Red Sox are expected to improve significantly from 2013. They were last in the division and a 90+ loss team last year, unheard of for the Red Sox. They have a very solid lineup, but their rotation is below average. Their bullpen will also struggle this year. They will need to win a lot of high scoring games if they want to be in the playoff race in 2013. Luckily, they have the lineup to do it. They are expected to finish third in the American League East in 2013, with an 84-78 record.
The Boston Red Sox were likely the most disappointing team in the American League last year. On the contrary, the Washington Nationals were likely the most surprising team in the National League last year. Nobody predicted the Nationals would make the playoffs last year (well, except yours truly, who picked them to make the playoffs as a wild card). However, they combined a top flight rotation and an above average lineup to win the division and become one of the best teams in baseball. They have one of the elite young pitchers and young batters in the game, so there's reason to believe they'll improve. My projections show them as a team that will continue to play well, but will just miss the playoffs in 2013.
When discussing the Washington Nationals' lineup, one player's name comes to mind: young left fielder Bryce Harper. Harper took the league by storm as a 19 year old rookie, and was an easy choice for National League Rookie of the Year in 2013. While his production wasn't as good as his American League counterpart, Mike Trout, he pit together a solid .270/.340/.477 line last year. This makes him a 5.552 eq. run player, solid for a batter, though maybe not as good as he was perceived to be last year. He has significant power and can get on base at a good rate, and with his very young age, he will likely get better in the next few years. For the time being, he is a nice, though not elite, hitter in the game. Another name often associated with the Diamondbacks' lineup is third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Last year, his line was nearly identical to Harper's at .282/.346/.478. Like Harper, he can hit for very good contact and significant power and is a very good hitter in the game. He was worth about 5.552 eq. runs last year and is expected to improve slightly to 5.583 eq. runs in 2013. Again, he is a very nice hitter to have in the lineup, but is not an elite hitter.
The closest player the Nationals have to being an elite hitter is probably first baseman Adam LaRoche, who had his best year in a while last year. He didn't suffer injuries like he had in prior years, and put together a line of .271/.343/.510. That line puts him in the same OBP range as Harper and Zimmerman, but with more power. Last year, he was in the MVP discussion and it was well deserved; he was worth 5.832 eq. runs last year. On top of that, if he can stay healthy, he could even be better; his BABIP last year was worse than his career BABIP. I'm expecting him to improve slightly to a 5.942 eq. run player. Another well-known returning National who could be seen as a potentially elite hitter is shortstop Ian Desmond. Desmond put together a solid line of .292/.335/.511, showing he get get on base at a good rate and with good power. His line is very similar to LaRoche's, but he does it from a defensive premium position. Last year, he was worth 5.696 eq. runs, and I expect him to regress a little bit next year to a 5.531 eq. run player. At the shortstop position, very few teams would turn down that kind of production.
The rest of the Nationals' outfield consists of some solid hitters. Jayson Werth, who a year ago seemed to be the most overpaid player in baseball, put together a solid .300/.387/.440 line last year. He doesn't have as much power as the players above, but his extremely high OBP would make him a solid top of the lineup hitter. Last year, he actually led the Nationals with a 5.939 eq. run statistic. While he is not expected to repeat that, he is still expected to be a 5.380 eq. run player, which would make him an integral piece in the Nationals' lineup. The Nationals did trade for a new centerfielder in the offseason. They acquired Denard Span, a speedy center fielder from the Minnesota Twins in the offseason. As a speedy player, he is expected to lead off, and while he doesn't provide the value at the leadoff position that Werth does, he did put together a .283/.342/.395 line last year. He doesn't have that much power, but can get on base at a decent rate, though not at the great rate that Werth does. He is expected to remain a 4.661 eq. run player, as his BABIP last year seemed to be a reasonable expectation for his BABIP in 2013. While he won't replace the offense of the player he is ultimately replacing, Michael Morse, Span is not a bad replacement and will provide value to the Nationals' offense.
Returning to the Nationals' lineup at second base will be Danny Espinosa, who is essentially an average hitter at second base. He hit for a .247/.315/.402 line last year. He has some power and some contact hitting ability, but for a player deemed a weaker hitter in the lineup, Espinosa can provide value. Last year, he was worth about 4.239 eq. runs. That isn't bad for a bottom of the order lineup, especially one who plays at a defensive premium position like second base. However, he is expected to regress next year to a 3.886 eq. run player. On a team with playoff expectations, that might not be enough to ward off disappointment and to keep the team from looking for other options. However, the weakest hitter in the Nationals' lineup is catcher Kurt Suzuki, one of the weakest hitters in the game. He is a defense first catcher, and in a lineup with so many good hitters, that isn't a terrible thing. However, his line of .235/.276/.328 is hard to look past. That is an extremely low OBP and he has no power. He will need to bat much better to be safe as a starting catcher. Last year, he was worth only 2.889 runs on offense and even with a little expected improvement, he is still expected to be worth only 2.967 runs.
The Nationals' bench provides depth all around the field. It consists of catcher Wilson Ramos, first baseman and corner outfielder Chad Tracy, first baseman and corner outfielder Tyler Moore, utility player Steve Lombardozzi, and outfielder Roger Bernadina. Ramos is the offensive counterpart to Suzuki's defense at catcher. Last year, he hit for a .267/.338/.436 line and was worth 4.982 equivalent runs. He was able to get on base much more than Suzuki and with much more power; however, Suzuki's asset is offense and Ramos is more of a bat first catcher. The combination works out very well, but Ramos will need to hit even better or become a better defensive catcher to snag the starter's role from Suzuki. Tyler Moore was a bit of a surprise last year hitting .263/.327/.513, showing a lot of power as a backup. First base (LaRoche), left field (Harper), and right field (Werth) are filled, so barring an injury, it is unlikely that Moore will be able to snag a starter's role. Steve Lomardozzi was another surprise last year, though as a utility infielder, his line didn't need to be as impressive as Moore's to make an impression. Lombardozzi isn't an offensive stud, putting together a line of .273/.317/.354 last year, but he is very versatile and has enough offense to be a backup to Desmond and Espinosa. Finally, Bernadina played a significant role for the Nationals last year while Morse and Werth were injured last year. He put together a solid line of .291/.372/.405 line last year, and his big asset is the ability to get on base. He can play a big role as a pinch hitter and a solid fourth outfielder in this lineup.
The rotation for the Nationals is seen as the biggest plus for this team. At the top is the no longer innings-limited Stephen Strasburg, the young pitching stud for the Nationals. He is a true ace, and one of the top power pitchers in the game, striking out 30.2% of the batters he faced last year. On top of that, he didn't walk that many batters (7.4%) and was only slightly below average as a contact pitcher, getting 0.75 ground balls for every fly ball. With all of these stats, he can expect to give up 3.30 runs per nine innings, making him a solid ace in this rotation. Another Cy Young award candidate last year was Gio Gonzalez. He is another fireballer, as he struck out 25.2% of the batters he faced last year. He does walk quite a few batters as well, though, walking them at a 9.3% rate. However, some of that is offset as he is a solid contact pitcher, getting about 0.96 ground balls for every fly ball. With this information, Gonzalez can expect to give up about 3.90 runs per nine innings. This isn't an expected eq. runs against stat of a Cy Young pitcher, but as a middle of the rotation starter, he is solid. A third exceptional pitcher last year for the Nationals was Jordan Zimmermann. Unlike Strasburg and Gonzalez, Zimmermann isn't a strikeout pitcher. He isn't bad at it, but with a K% rate of 19% last year, he is well below Strasburg and Gonzalez. However, he also walks far fewer batters, as he walked them at a 5.3% rate last year. He is a below average contact pitcher as he gives up 0.75 ground balls for every fly ball, but his low BB% rate makes him a 3.71 eq. run against stat, making him a well above average middle of the rotation starter.
The Nationals did lose Edwin Jackson in the offseason, and the number four pitching spot has been replaced. Former Angel Dan Haren will fill that role. He is actually very much like Jordan Zimmermann, as he struck out 19% of the batters he faced last year and only walked 5.1% of the batters he faced last year. He is a slightly worse contact pitcher at 0.66 ground balls per fly ball, but even so, he can expect to only give up 3.78 runs per nine innings. Again, as a middle of the rotation starter, Haren is a solid option and well above average as a number four pitcher. Closing out the rotation is second year starter Ross Detwiler, who beat out John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang in Spring Training last year. He is even less of a strikeout pitcher than Zimmermann and Haren, as he only struck out 15.3% of the batters he faced last year. On top of that, he walked 7.6%, which for most pitchers isn't bad. However, for a pitcher with such a low strikeout rate, that number is average or slightly below average. Detwiler makes his money as a contact pitcher, as he got 1.06 ground balls for every fly ball last year. With these stats, Detwiler is expected to be a 4.17 expected eq. run against pitcher. That would be good for a middle of the rotation pitcher, but as a fifth pitcher in the rotation, that is more than satisfactory.
The Nationals' bullpen will be led by new closer Rafael Soriano, the former Yankee. Soriano is the closer because of his solid 24.7% strikeout percentage. However, his walk percentage wasn't great last year at 8.6%. On top of that, he is a below average contact pitcher, only getting 0.60 ground balls per every fly ball. His strikeout rate keeps him as a respectable pitcher in the bullpen, but he is expected to give up 4.21 runs per nine innings. That is generally too high for a closer. Another option would be the former closer for the Nationals, Drew Storen. Storen has suffered with injuries the past few years, but when he has been healthy, he's been good. He doesn't strike out quite as many as Soriano (20.7%), but he walks far fewer (6.9%). In addition, he is an above average contact pitcher, getting 1.10 ground balls per fly ball. He is expected to give up 3.52 runs per nine innings, which is not bad for an end of the bullpen pitcher. Another option, albeit a potentially misguided one, is power pitcher Tyler Clippard. Clippard had a higher strikeout rate than either Soriano or Storen last year at 27.4%, but he also had a higher walk rate at 9.5%. On top of that, he is a very poor contact pitcher giving up 0.40 ground balls per nine innings. Because of this, he is expected to give up 4.45 runs per nine innings, which is too much for an end of the bullpen pitcher.
The Nationals have a top rate rotation and a solid lineup. Their bullpen could use some improving, but overall they are a solid team. They do lack an elite hitter, though they have many solid hitters. If LaRoche, Desmond, Harper, Werth, or Zimmerman could turn into an elite hitter, perhaps that would be enough to put the Nationals over the top. Perhaps Soriano or Clippard could find control or they are able to become solid contact pitchers; if they do, that could put the Nationals over the top. In the end, though, the Nationals are expected to finish just short of the playoffs with an 83-79 record.
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