For the past 15 or so years, the New York Yankees have been the best team money can buy by spending loads of money on top players. Players with names like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, and Mariano Rivera have been mainstays for the Yankees while being some of the top paid players at their positions on baseball. They have had an unfair advantage by being able to outspend every team in baseball and have only a few teams approach their spending. The result has been multiple World Series titles, multiple division titles, and a playoff run almost every year. However, there are a lot of predictions for a down year for the Yankees due to significant injuries. Much of their lineup is expected to start the year on the injured list. Will this keep the Yankees out of the playoffs in 2013?
The offensive star for the Yankees is second baseman Robinson Cano. Cano is an exceptional hitter at a defensive premium position. As a matter of fact, he is one of the top hitters in the game as shown by his .313/.379/.550 line last year. He is very good at getting on base, but the real asset he provides is his power. Last year, he provided 6.937 eq. runs for the Yankees and he is only expected to regress to 6.800 eq. runs in 2013. That makes him one of the top elite hitters in the game, and as a second baseman, he is perhaps the most valuable hitter in the game. On top of that for the Yankees, he is one of their few stars who will not start the year on the injured list. The more well-known player in the middle of the Yankees' infield is shortstop Derek Jeter. Jeter has been the face of the Yankees' franchise since the mid-1990s. Once one of the top hitters in the game, Jeter is still fairly good. His power is not great, but it's still good and his OBP makes him a prime top of the order candidate. Last year, he put together a line of .316/.362/.429, good for 5.358 eq. runs. He is expected to regress to about 5.037 eq. runs in 2013. That precludes him from being elite, but as a shortstop, he is extremely valuable if he can continue to put together 5+ eq. run seasons. It is uncertain if he can, as he is getting older and he is starting the year on the injured list.
The Yankees also have some other offensive stars, though they will start on the injured list. Mark Teixeira will return and play first base at some point this season. While he has been generally disappointing with the Yankees, that has been because Teixeira has been an elite hitter over most of his career. His line is still very good at .251/.332/.475 last year, good for 5.265 eq. runs, which is still a very good number. As a first baseman, Teixeira is still above average and he is expected to improve significantly to 5.805 eq. runs. He will provide plenty of power and some contact skills to the middle of the Yankees lineup upon his return. In center field, the Yankees will return Curtis Granderson at some point this season. Like Jeter and Teixeira, Granderson will start the year on the injured list. He had a relatively disappointing year for him last year with a .232/.319/.492 line. He has significant power, though his OBP was well below his average last year. In 2011, Granderson was 4th in MVP voting, so last year was a bit of a disappointment at 5.207 eq. runs. He is expected to improve to about 5.863 eq. runs. As a top of the order hitter, Granderson might struggle. His power is much better placed in the middle of the order. In addition, as a center fielder, Granderson is at a defensive premium position. He provides a ton of value to this lineup.
The Yankees made a splash in the middle of the year last year trading for long-time Mariner outfielder Ichiro Suzuki. Once the premier contact hitter in the game getting over 200 hits per season every season, he has fallen considerably in recent years. However, he seemed to have a bit of a revival with the Yankees last year playing meaningful baseball for the first time in a long while. Last year, he hit for a .283/.307/.390 line, good for 3.984 eq. runs. However, that number was much lower with Seattle than it was with the Yankees. Still, Ichiro is on the downward slope of his career and has very little power. He will have to rely significantly on his ability to get on base, and a .307 OBP will not cut it. He is expected to be worth 3.984 eq. runs again in 2013. The Yankees will also return outfielder Brett Gardner to their lineup. With Granderson injured, Gardner will likely start the year as the center fielder. When Granderson comes back, Gardner will likely play left field. He put together a line of .262/.349/.370, good for 4.559 eq. runs. He has very little power, but his high OBP would make him a prime lead-off candidate, and he is expected to lead off for the Yankees this year. He likely won't bat much with players on base, but his ability to get on base will be important so the power hitters can bring him in. He is expected to continue to be worth 4.559 eq. runs in 2013.
The Yankees did bring in a few free agents in the offseason, but neither are superstars. They are more role players. At third base, replacing injured Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees signed former Red Sox and White Sox infielder Kevin Youkilis. He was once one of the top hitters in the game, but he has fallen considerably after a few injuries. Last year, he put together a line of .235/.336/.409, showing he is essentially an average hitter at this point in his career. He was worth 4.684 eq. runs last year, and he is expected to improve to 5.059 eq. runs in 2013. That's not a bad line for a starting third baseman, and can add value as a supporting hitter in the lineup. The Yankees also brought in former Cleveland Indian Travis Hafner to be the designated hitter. Last year, Hafner put together a line of .228/.346/.438, showing he has a good ability to get on base and hit for some power. He was worth 5.149 eq. runs last year, but his BABIP (.233) was exceptionally low last year. When adjusting his eq. run statistic for BABIP, it increases the eq. runs to 6.517, which would make him an elite hitter in baseball. I don't really trust that he will be that good, but he will be better than 5.149 eq. runs. The last member of the Yankees' lineup will be catcher Chris Stewart. Stewart is clearly the weakpoint of the lineup, as shown by his .241/.292/.319 line. He was worth about 3.088 eq. runs last year, and that puts him way at the bottom of the lineup. He is expected to only improve to about 3.115 eq. runs. He has to replace Russell Martin, who was far from being an elite hitting catcher, but was a reasonable starter. Stewart will have to watch his back and hit better if he wants to keep the starting job.
It is hard to put together a list of players on the bench knowing that it will change significantly as the year goes on due to injuries. Therefore, instead of saying bench players, I will call this group players that are expected to get bench-type playing time. It will consist of catcher Francisco Cervelli, infielders Eduardo Nunez and Alex Rodriguez, and outfielder Vernon Wells. Cervelli will give Stewart a good run for his money at the catcher position. He is dealing with a PED scandal right now, but he put together a solid .264/.326/.392 line last year. He has some power and some on-base abilities, making him a good candidate to usurp the starting catcher job at some point in the year. Last year, he was worth about 4.342 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only slightly, to 4.173 eq. runs. He would be an average catcher if he started, and he should get that opportunity at some point this year. Alex Rodriguez is dealing with an injury that could potentially keep him out all year. If he wasn't injured, he would not be on the bench and would be starting over Youkilis. Like Cervelli, he is also involved in a PED scandal, and he and Ryan Braun seem to be targets of the Major League Baseball
For a long time, the Yankees had an elite lineup, but their pitching staff was holding them back. Now, their lineup will be struggling with injuries for much of the year, and their pitching staff will keep them from falling. The ace of the staff will remain CC Sabathia, who remains one of the top pitchers in the game. He struck out about 23.7% of the batters he faced last year, while only walking 5.3%. On top of that, he is an above average contact pitcher, giving up 0.98 ground balls for every fly ball. Based on all of this, he is expected to give up 3.06 runs per nine innings, an extremely low amount. He is not only an ace on this team, but he is one of the top aces in the game. The Yankees will also return Hiroki Kuroda as the second pitcher in the rotation. He isn't a great strikeout pitcher like Sabathia, as he walked 18.7% of the batters he faced. However, he only walked 5.7% and had an even better GB / FB ratio at 1.11. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.39 runs per nine innings. For most teams, this would be good to be the top pitcher in the staff, but the Yankees have the luxury of being able to put him in the middle relief role. That is a huge plus. The Yankees will also return twice retired veteran Andy Pettitte. When Andy Pettitte came back for his third time, it was unsure how he would do. He was getting up there in years and got caught with PEDs in his system. However, he has thrived since coming back. Last year, he struck out 22.8% of the batters he faced while walking only 6.9%. On top of that, he is a very good contact pitcher, getting 1.24 ground balls for every fly ball. His age may eventually catch up to him, but at this point, he is expected to give up 3.19 runs per nine innings. Again, for most teams, he'd be an ace. With the Yankees, he's a middle of the rotation starter.
The rest of the Yankees' rotation will be made up of younger pitchers. For a while, Phil Hughes was considered a top prospect for the Yankees. He disappointed for the first few years of his career, but he has come along and become a solid middle of the rotation starter. He strikes out his fair share at 20.3%, and only walked about 5.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he is weak as a contact pitcher, only getting about 0.48 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, Hughes is expected to give up 4.01 runs per nine innings, and that could improve if he can get more ground balls. The Yankees will also return Ivan Nova. Nova's strikeout rate is like Hughes' at 20.5%. He does walk a few more batters at 7.5% last year, but he makes up for that by having average contact pitching statistics, getting 0.84 ground balls per fly ball. In all reality, he is expected to give up essentially the same number of runs per nine innings as Hughes, at 4.00 eq. runs. As bottom of the rotation starters, Hughes and Nova are excellent. Their statistics would put them closer to middle-of-the-rotation status, but as #4 and #5 pitchers, Hughes and Nova provide huge value.
One of the biggest and most surprising injuries in Major League Baseball last year happened to closer Mariano Rivera when he got injured shagging balls during batting practice. For the last 15 or so years, Rivera has been the best closer in the game, and he hasn't seemed to slow down. He could fall significantly due to age or injury, but Rivera is expected to be a top reliever in the game in his final year. He struck out 25.7% of the batters he faced in the last two years and only walked 3.8%. He is also an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground ball per fly ball last year. He is expected to give up 2.67 runs per nine innings, which is very good for any pitcher, including a closer. The Yankees will also return setup man David Robertson. Robertson is actually a better strikeout pitcher than Rivera, getting a strikeout in 32.7% against the batters he faced last year. However, he walks a bit more, at a 7.7% rate. That is still a very good ratio, but compared to Rivera, it's a bit of a step down. He is expected to give up 3.10 runs per nine innings, which would be good to close for most teams. The Yankees have a good closing option in house after Rivera retires at the end of the year. The Yankees will also return Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. He is less of a strikeout pitcher than Rivera and Robertson, getting a strikeout in only about 23.2% of the opposing plate appearances. However, he has a good walk rate at 5.3% and is an average contact pitcher, getting about 0.88 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he's still a solid reliever, as he is expected to give up about 3.45 runs per nine innings. As a reliever, Chamberlain has had good success and could provide another late inning option for the Yankees.
The Yankees may struggle to begin the year due to the large number of injuries, but I don't expect them to struggle that mightily. They still have a decent lineup consisting of Robinson Cano, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, and Ichiro Suzuki to begin the year, and their rotation is now elite. They have three potential aces and two potential middle rotation starters in the rotation at this point. In addition, they have a top flight bullpen. They are expected to have the third best pitching in the American League based on runs given up, and that will be good to keep the Yankees atop the competitive American League East. The Yankees are expected to win the American League East with a 95-67 record.
I will start out this part of the article by saying that I have no connection to the Arizona Diamondbacks. I certainly don't have anything against them, but they are not my favorite team, and there was no way that I would expect the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the National League West over the World Series Champions San Francisco Giants and the big spending Los Angeles Dodgers. However, my projections show that they will win the National League West and be a top team in the National League. They have a solid all-around lineup and a very good rotation. They don't have any players that would qualify as elite, but they seem to be very good all around.
The closest player the Diamondbacks have to an elite player is their second baseman, Aaron Hill. In the past, Hill was seen more as a nice player to have in a lineup than someone to build an offense around. However, he put together a great line of .302/.360/.522 last year, good for 6.275 eq. runs. Anytime a hitter hits for over 6 eq. runs, it was a very successful season and a sign of a player who you can build a lineup around. He has significant power and a good ability to get on base. While not elite in either of these categories, he is well above average in each of these categories. In addition, he plays a defensive premium position at second base. He is expected to regress to 5.847 eq. runs in 2013, but that would still be a very good year. The Diamondbacks will also return first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to their lineup. While he is not seen as a top first baseman throughout baseball, he has been very good the last two years. Last year, he put together a line of .286/.359/.490, showing he can hit for some power and surprisingly good contact. Last year, he was good for 5.917 eq. runs. Unlike Hill, he plays at an offensive heavy position, making his value slightly less than Hill's. However, Goldschmidt has quietly become one of the more solid hitters in the game. He is expected to regress to about 5.623 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still very good, even at first base. Hill and Goldschmidt aren't elite hitters, but they would add value to any lineup.
The Diamondbacks will also return two other very good hitters. The expected starting left fielder for the Diamondbacks will be Jason Kubel. The former Twin put together a line of .253/.327/.506 last year, showing his real asset at the plate is power. As a contact hitter, he is average or even slightly below average. He was worth 5.498 eq. runs in 2012, which, again, is not elite, but still has lots of value. He does play at an offense heavy position, but he will still add value. He is expected to improve slightly to 5.557 eq. runs in 2013. As a middle of the lineup hitter, Kubel would be very good. The Diamondbacks will also return catcher Miguel Montero to the lineup. Montero is a player known most for his power at the plate. However, his line of .286/.391/.438 last year shows that his real top asset is his ability to get on base. He would be a great leadoff hitter for the Diamondbacks. Last year, he fell just short of 6 eq. runs with 5.996 eq. runs. He is expected to regress a bit to 5.268 eq. runs. He is still not only a very good hitter, but one who does so while playing at the most defensive position in the game. Montero is a huge asset to this Diamondbacks' team, and could be even better as a leadoff hitter.
The Diamondbacks also brought in two new players in the offseason. The expected starting third baseman for the Diamondbacks will be former Atlanta Brave Martin Prado, whom the Diamondbacks acquired in the trade that sent Justin Upton to Atlanta. Prado is a very versatile player, but he is also an underrated hitter. Last year, he hit for a .301/.359/.438 line. He is above average as both a contact hitter and decent as a power hitter, and he actually hit for more eq. runs than Upton last year, who hit for 5.237 eq. runs last year. Prado hit for 5.390 eq. runs. He is expected to regress, but only slightly to 5.281 eq. runs in 2013. He is a very welcome addition to this lineup. Another welcome addition to the lineup after the trade of Justin Upton is new right fielder Cody Ross. Acquired via free agency, Ross put together a decent line of .267/.326/.481 last year. That gives him 5.218 eq. runs, which is again a solid amount, even for an offensive heavy position like right fielder. Ross has some speed, but his biggest asset at the plate is his power. As a contact hitter, he is only average; as a power hitter, he is above average. He would be best played in the middle of a lineup. He is projected to regress slightly to 4.983 eq. runs in 2013, but that is still above average, even in right field.
One of the more exciting parts of the Diamondbacks' lineup is their high level prospect center fielder Adam Eaton. Eaton will be expected to bat near the top of the order with a .259/.382/.412 line last year. He didn't show that much power in his limited time with Arizona last year, but his OBP was quite high. It was actually high enough to give him 5.571 eq. runs. He is a prospect and can be expected to get better as time goes on; however, even if he wasn't, he'd be expected to improve (albeit slightly) to 5.589 eq. runs. As with any rookie, Eaton could be the next Mike Trout or the next Jeff Clement. He is expected to be a solid rookie in the running for Rookie of the Year, but it's just impossible to tell how a player will react to playing every day in a Major League lineup. Really, though, he is expected to be above average. One player who is expected to be well below average offensively is shortstop Cliff Pennington, who was only able to put together a line of .215/.278/.311 last year. The Diamondbacks' lineup is very good and likely able to withstand a weak bat like Pennington's, but they would like to see him play better to maintain a starting job. Last year, he was only worth 2.779 eq. runs, which is pitifully low. He has low power and very little ability to get on base, but he is expected to improve slightly to 3.272 eq. runs in 2013. Pennington isn't an ideal player to have wrap up this lineup, but the lineup consists of seven other above average players. They can withstand a Cliff Pennington.
The Diamondbacks are expected to bring in a balanced bench with a few very good offensive players and a few very good defensive catchers. It is expected to consist of catcher Wil Nieves, infielders Eric Chavez, Eric Hinske, and Willie Bloomquist, and outfielder Gerardo Parra. Eric Chavez is coming off a solid year with the Yankees where he hit .281/.348/.496. He still has a lot of power and a good ability to get on base, and he is a top bench hitter with a 5.776 eq. run statistic last year. He is pretty much limited to third base, and with Martin Prado there, he probably won't be an everyday starter without an injury. However, an injury in the corner outfield or at second base could move Prado off of third base and Chavez would slip into the role at third base. Willie Bloomquist has gotten a lot of time in the middle infield in recent years due to an injury to former shortstop Stephen Drew. He has been okay at the plate, as shown by his .302/.325/.398 line last year. He could give Pennington a run for his money at shortstop, though both his contact and power hitting skills are below average. He was worth 4.380 eq. runs last year, and is expected to regress to 3.812 eq. runs in 2013. That's good for a utility infielder, but below average for a starter. Parra was once a starting outfielder for the Diamondbacks, but he has been squeezed out of that role. He is a Gold Glove winner, and can hit for some power and contact. Last year, he put together a .273/.335/.392 line, which was good for 4.505 eq. runs. That won't compete with Kubel, Eaton, or Ross, but as a fourth outfielder, he is an excellent option. He is not a player that the Diamondbacks would have to worry about if he needed to get a lot of starts.
The Arizona Diamondbacks quietly have one of the better lineups in baseball. They also quietly have one of the better rotations in baseball. The ace of the staff is Ian Kennedy, a 21 game winner two years ago. He slowed down a bit last year, but still is able to strike out batters at a very good rate (20.8%) while avoiding walking them (6.1%). He is a below average contact pitcher, getting 0.60 ground balls per fly ball, and that all means that he is expected to be worth 3.94 eq. runs in 2013. For an ace of the staff, this is rather high, but it's still not terrible. 2012 was a down year for him, and if he can pitch more like he did in 2011, his eq. run against statistic will fall dramatically. The Diamondbacks will also return Trevor Cahill to the rotation. Cahill is not the strikeout or control pitcher Kennedy is, as shown by his 18.6% strikeout rate and his 8.8% walk rate. However, he is able ot more than make up for it with an exceptional ability to pitch to contact. Last year, he gave up 1.59 ground balls for every fly ball. That brings his expected eq. runs against statistic to fall all the way to 3.55. That would be good to be the ace of the staff, but it certainly puts him at the top of the rotation. If he is able to improve on control or power pitching, he could become a true ace. The Diamondbacks will also return the player who finished second place in the Rookie of the Year voting for the National League last year, Wade Miley. Miley is a control first pitcher with a decent ability to strike batters out, as shown by his 17.8% strike out rate and his 4.6% walk rate. That is a great ratio and shows he didn't get overly lucky with his rookie season. He is also an average contact pitcher, getting 0.77 ground balls per fly ball. This all makes him a 3.62 eq. run player. Miley could become the top pitcher in the Diamondbacks' rotation if he improves his strikeout rate or groundball/fly ball ratio. Between him, Kennedy, and Cahill, the Diamondbacks have three top of the rotation pitchers.
The Diamondbacks also made one of the smarter moves in the offseason, signing former Oakland Athletics pitcher Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy is definitely not a strikeout ratio, striking out only 15.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he offset that by walking only 5.1%. He is a slightly below average contact pitcher, getting only 0.69 ground balls per nine innings. He is a good innings eater and is expected to give up 4.01 runs per nine innings. This makes him a perfectly acceptable and potentially above average middle of the rotation pitcher. The Diamondbacks have another young pitcher with a lot of ability at the bottom of the expected rotation in Pat Corbin. In limited time last year, Corbin showed he was an above average strikeout (18.9%) and walk (5.5%) pitcher. In addition, he is an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.82 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up 3.68 runs per nine innings, making him a well above average middle of the rotation starter and an acceptable top of the rotation starter. In all, the Diamondbacks have three or four top of the rotation starters and one or two middle of the rotation starters. Again, they have nothing flashy, but they are solid in the rotation.
They are also solid in the bullpen. The closer is expected to be J.J. Putz. Putz is a well above average strikeout pitcher, striking out 29.8% of the batters he faced last year. In addition, he is a well above average control pitcher, walking only 5.1% of the batters he faced last year. To make things even better, he is a slightly above average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground balls for every fly ball last year. He is expected to give up about 2.69 runs per nine innings in 2013, making him an elite closer in the game. However, he is not the only well above average pitcher in the bullpen. The setup man in this bullpen is expected to be David Hernandez. Hernandez strikes out batters at an even higher rate, 35.3% last year, but gave up a few more walks because of it. He walked 7.9% of the batters he faced last year. In addition, he is very below average as a contact pitcher, giving up only 0.44 ground balls per fly ball. However, his extremely high strikeout total and his good walk total make him a 3.39 eq. run pitcher. He would be a contender to close on most teams, but as a setup man for the Diamondbacks, he provides a lot of value for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks also acquired former Miami Marlin closer Heath Bell to pitch late in games. Bell was very bad last year, but his peripherals show he wasn't as bad as his more used stats (5.09 ERA). He struck out 20.6% of the batters he faced last year while walking 10.10%. He walks way too many to be an effective closer, but if he can find his control again, he could provide a lot of value to the Diamondbacks. He is also a slightly above average contact pitcher, getting 0.90 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is expected to give up 4.53 runs per nine innings. That's not a closer, but it's also not as bad as his 2012 season with the Marlins.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are not expected to do much by many prognosticators. However, despite the lack of star power in their lineup and rotation, they are solid all around. They are expected to have seven players in their starting lineup with 4.9 eq. runs or more and they are expected to have a rotation with no pitchers expected to give up more than 4.01 runs per nine innings. That is solid. Solid enough to win the National League West with a 91-71 record.
No comments:
Post a Comment