For the past 20 or so years, the Toronto Blue Jays have been an also-ran in the American League East. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are cash cows, the Tampa Bay Rays have been solid for the last five years, and the Baltimore Orioles have been able to make the odd playoff run. The Blue Jays have not been in a real playoff hunt for a long time, despite a young and upcoming team. However, the Toronto Blue Jays decided to go all in. They made an infamous trade with the Miami Marlins and signed a few free agents. Will these moves put the Blue Jays over the hump in the ultra-competitive American League West?
Despite all of the moves made in the last offseason, the star of the Blue Jays still has to be right fielder and power hitter Jose Bautista. Bautista, who was once an afterthought with the Pittsburgh Pirates, has become one of the most dangerous hitters in the game in Toronto. Last year was a down year for him, and he still hit for a .241/.358/.527 line. The intriguing thing about Bautista is that he appeared to get extremely unlucky last year; he hit for a .215 BABIP. His career BABIP is .270, and an average BABIP across the league is more in the .290 - .300 range. Taking that into account, he is expected to improve from a 6.291 eq. run player, which is still very good, to a 7.681 eq. run player in 2013, making him one of the top hitters in the game. He is not the only offense-heavy star returning to the Blue Jays. The highest eq. run statistic player for the Blue Jays last year was Edwin Encarnacion, who is expected to start for the Blue Jays at first base this year. Last year, he hit for a line of .280/.384/.557. He is known for his power, but his OBP is what really stands out about his line. A .384 OBP puts him amongst the top contact hitters in the game. He was quietly one of the elite hitters in the game last year, worth 7.109 eq. runs. On top of that, he is expected to improve in 2013 to 7.397 eq. runs. Between Bautista and Encarnacion, the Blue Jays have two elite hitters. One hitter who was looking elite in 2011 is third baseman Brett Lawrie. Lawrie is about to enter his third year in the Majors, and he had a sophomore slump last year. His line wasn't bad at .273/.324/.405, but after his spectacular rookie season, it was disappointing. He has some power and is an okay contact hitter, but he was far from elite in either category last year. He was worth 4.428 eq. runs last year, and is not expected to improve much in 2013 based on BABIP. However, getting another year in the Majors will likely help him and he may improve in 2013.
The real reason for excitement for the Blue Jays this year, however, is expected to be the new players in the lineup. The biggest new name in the lineup was acquired in a trade with the Miami Marlins; it's shortstop Jose Reyes. After putting together a career year in 2011, Reyes' production struggled to a .287/.347/.433 line. Again, that's not bad, but Reyes is expected to be one of the top contact hitters in the game. A .347 OBP is certainly acceptable, especially at a defense premium position. He was still worth 5.118 eq. runs last year, and is expected to improve to 5.230 eq. runs. He is expected to provide value as a lead-off hitter for the Blue Jays' lineup this year. The Blue Jays also acquired second baseman Emilio Bonifacio. Bonifacio is a speedy, defensive, and versatile player, but his offense isn't great. Last year, he hit for a .258/.330/.316 line, showing that while he is decent at getting on base, he has virtually no power. That kind of line is worth about 3.737 eq. runs, which is alright if it's amongst the lower level players on the team. Luckily for the Blue Jays, his eq. run statistic is likely to be amongst the worst in the lineup.
The rest of the Blue Jays' outfield contains two very interesting players. In left field, Melky Cabrera was signed as a free agent. He was the leader for the batting title in the National League with the Giants last year, but his season was cut short by a failed PED test. He put together a spectacular line of .346/.390/.516 last year, but between the PED suspension and the fact that line is so far out of the ordinary for him, I used his 2011 line of .305/.339/.470 to project his 2013. In that year, he was worth 5.342 eq. runs, which is still a very good number. He is expected to regress a bit in 2013, but is still expected to be worth about 4.965 eq. runs. As a supporting member in this lineup, he could provide some real value. Returning to the Blue Jays' lineup in center field is Colby Rasmus. Rasmus was once seen as a decent prospect, and he still is to an extent. However, he put together a rather bad line of .223/.289/.400 last year in center field. He was expected to be an offensive star, but he is far from that. His contact numbers are unacceptable, and his power is lower than expected. Last year he was worth 3.762 eq. runs. He did appear to get unlucky in 2012, though, and is expected to be worth about 4.210 eq. runs in 2013. Still, the expectations are much higher for Rasmus.
The Blue Jays will also return the last two players in the lineup. At designated hitter, Adam Lind is expected to provide value towards the bottom of the lineup. Last year, he put together an average line of .255/.314/.414. As a designated hitter, that is well below average, and the Blue Jays are hoping for more from Lind. Last year he was worth about 4.335 eq. runs. Even if he improves as expected to about 4.454 eq. runs, that will be a disappointment for the Blue Jays. The final member of the Blue Jays lineup had a lower eq. run statistic, but since he plays at the defensive premium position, catcher, he is seen as a decent player. That would be J.P. Arencibia. He put together a line of .233/.275/.434 last year. His OPS of .710 isn't particularly bad, but he needs a higher OBP to move to the next level. Right now, he is an average catcher and he won't move above that level with an OBP below .300, especially one .025 points below. He was worth about 3.859 eq. runs last year, and is actually projected to regress to 3.722 eq. runs in 2013. Still, he has an opportunity to improve on his OBP, and if he takes advantage of it, he could be an above average catcher in the Major Leagues.
The Blue Jays are expected to have a decent bench consisting of defensive catching star Henry Blanco, infielders Maicer Izturis and Mark DeRosa, and outfielder Rajai Davis. Izturis is expected to be the primary backup infielder. He is not a power hitter, but he can hit for some contact, as shown by his .256/.320/.315 line last year. That is worth about 3.548 eq. runs, which is far from being an everyday player. However, as a backup, he can provide a lot of value. Backup middle infielders generally don't hit all that well, and his defense is a plus. Rajai Davis is probably the best bat of the bench for the Blue Jays, as shown by his .257/.309/.378 line. He has more power than anyone on the bench, and can get on base at a decent rate for a fourth outfielder. He was worth about 3.908 eq. runs last year, which again, is not acceptable for a starting outfielder. However, as a bench bat and fourth outfielder, he is satisfactory.
The Blue Jays also saw their rotation change significantly from last year. Their ace was acquired from the New York Mets via trade in the offseason, knuckleball pitcher R.A. Dickey. Dickey is coming off a Cy Young season with the Mets. He struck out 24.8% of the batters he faced while only walking 5.8%. He is an average contact pitcher, getting 0.87 ground balls for every fly ball last year. A major concern about Dickey is his age; however, pitchers who throw knuckleballs generally age better than other pitchers since they don't rely on velocity so much. He is expected to give up about 3.22 runs per nine innings in 2013, making him a solid ace in this rotation. The Blue Jays also acquired two starting pitchers from the Miami Marlins in the trade that also netted them Jose Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio. Mark Buehrle was one of those pitchers. He put together a disappointing year for the Marlins last year, but his peripherals weren't that bad. He's not a strikeout pitcher (15.1%) but his walk numbers were low enough to more than make up for that fact, at 4.8%. He is a below average contact pitcher, getting 0.70 ground balls for every fly ball, and because of all of this, he is expected to give up about 3.97 eq. runs per nine innings, not bad for a middle of the rotation starter. Also acquired in that trade was long time Marlin Josh Johnson. Johnson is more of a strikeout pitcher than Buehrle, striking out 20.7% of the batters he faced last year. However, he also walked much more, at 8.2%. He is an average contact pitcher giving up about 0.85 ground balls for every fly ball, and all of this makes him a 4.13 eq. run pitcher. Again, that's not bad as a middle of the rotation starter, which Buehrle and Johnson are expected to be.
The Blue Jays are also expected to return two pitchers to the rotation from last year. Brandon Morrow returns for the Blue Jays as a middle of the rotation starter. He is a good strikeout pitcher (21.4%) who walks about an average number of batters (8.1%). As a contact pitcher, he gives up about 0.72 ground balls for every fly ball, making him a fairly average middle of the rotation starter. He is expected to give up about 4.21 runs per nine innings. In all facets of the starting pitching game, he is fairly average, and his expected eq. runs against reflects that. The Blue Jays will also return Ricky Romero, who is definitely a bottom of the rotation starter. He is not a good strikeout pitcher, striking out only about 15% of the batters he faces. However, his walk percentage does not reflect that, as it is extraordinarily high at 12.7%. His one saving grace is that he is a good contact pitcher, getting 1.16 ground balls for every fly ball, but he is still expected to give up about 5.29 eq. runs per nine innings. On a good team like the Blue Jays, Romero would probably be best in the bullpen or in the Minors, but the Blue Jays are hoping Romero can improve both his strikeout and walk numbers and become a legitimate rotation starter on a good team.
The bullpen for the Blue Jays consists of some solid arms. Even better, the Blue Jays haven't fallen into the trap of putting their best power pitcher in the closer role. That's not to say their closer, Casey Janssen, can't get many strikeouts. On the contrary, he gets strikeouts in about 27.7% of his opposing plate appearances. However, his walk percentage is very low at 4.6%, and his contact pitching statistic is fairly close to normal (0.78 GB / FB ratio). Because of this, he is expected to give up about 2.82 runs per nine innings, making him a top closer in the game. However, he is not the biggest power pitcher on the Blue Jays. Steve Delabar strikes out batters at a much better rate (33.6%), but doesn't have the walk numbers to match Janssen, as shown by his 9.5% walk percentage. He is a very similar contact pitcher to Janssen, as he gets about 0.77 ground balls for every fly ball. This all makes him a pitcher who can be expected to give up 3.50 runs per nine innings. He would actually be a decent closer, but he's not quite at the level of Casey Janssen. As a bullpen arm, he is solid. Also in the bullpen for the Blue Jays is Sergio Santos, another strikeout first pitcher. He struck out about 33.8% of the batters he faced last year. However, much of that was offset by his high 11.6% walk rate. His contact pitching statistics are similar to Janssen's and Delabar's, at 0.76 GB / FB. He is expected to give up 4.00 runs per nine innings, mainly due to his high walk percentage. As a bullpen, arm, he can be valuable when a strikeout is needed. However, counting on him to get a strikeout in high leverage situations may backfire.
The Blue Jays have decided to really go for it in 2013. They added Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, and Melky Cabrera to an already solid lineup, and added R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson to their rotation. In the process, they significantly emptied out their Minor League system, but they have decided to go for it and see if they can make a playoff run. It is expected that they will in 2013, finishing second in the American League East, being a wild card, and finishing with an 84-78 record.
The Atlanta Braves were able to make the playoffs as a wild card in 2012 after an incredible slump kept them out of the playoffs in 2011. They lost in the wild card game, but showed that they can compete at the top levels of the game. Last year they made the playoffs, and they would like to bypass that round this year and win their division. My projections show them beating out the Nationals and Phillies, and winning the division. They have a solid lineup made stronger with off-season acquisitions, and their rotation is built well enough to win.
Now that Chipper Jones has retired, the Braves need a new face of the franchise, and the first name that comes to mind is young right fielder Jason Heyward. He is a great fielder, has a great arm, and can run, but his production at the plate is what makes him even better. Last year, he put together a line of .269/.335/.479, showing he has some power and some ability to get on base. The team hopes he can produce better, as he was worth 5.361 eq. runs last year. He is expected to be worth about 5.232 eq. runs in 2013, which would be a slight regression. However, he is young and he could improve as he gets older. Another young hitter in this lineup is first baseman Freddie Freeman. Unlike Heyward, Freeman's not a great fielder or very speedy. However, he can hit fairly well, as shown by his .259/.340/.456 line. He has good power, and has a decent ability to get on base. Last year, he was expected to be worth 5.218 eq. runs. Over his career, he has been a typically high BABIP guy. His BABIP was around the league average last year, but because of this high career BABIP last year, he is expected to improve to 5.376 eq. runs. Players like Heyward and Freeman would be supporting players on most good teams, but they have to carry a lot of the load with the Braves' lineup.
To help lighten the load, the Braves acquired two outfielders in the offseason. They acquired their starting left fielder, Justin Upton, via trade with the Diamondbacks. Once one of the top prospects in the game, Upton has been a solid player for the Diamondbacks, and it was a surprise that the Diamondbacks would let him go in the offseason. He hit for a solid .280/.355/.430 line last year, showing he has significant power but can get on base at a very good rate as well. Last year, he was worth 5.237 eq. runs, again a solid number for a supporting player on a team. He is expected to regress slightly to 5.131 eq. runs, but that is still not bad. The center fielder is expected to be his free agent brother, B.J. Upton. Upton was a key piece in the Rays' lineup in recent years, and the Braves picked him up. Last year, he put together a line of .246/.298/.454. He has slightly more power than his brother, but his OBP will need to improve if he wants to be a key contributor in this lineup. Last year, he was worth 4.446 eq. runs, a fairly low number for a key player. However, he is expected to improve to 4.724 eq. runs in 2013, making him an average player in this lineup.
The Braves will also return two middle infielders who hope to play a big role in the lineup. Though he has struggled a bit in the last few years, second baseman Dan Uggla has decent value. Uggla carries a low BA, but his OBP is very good, as shown by his .220/.348/.384 line. His power has fallen a bit in the past few years, but he can still get on base at a very good rate and is a good value at second base. Last year, he was worth about 4.669 eq. runs, and he is expected to be worth about 4.784 eq. runs in 2013. As a top of the order player, he could succeed. His lack of power wouldn't be seen as much there, but he can get on base for the better power hitters. Also returning to the Braves' lineup is young shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who put together a .289/.335/.416 line. Though his BA is 0.69 points higher than Uggla's, his OBP was slightly lower. He did show more power last year, and he is expected to improve as his career goes on. He was worth about 4.733 eq. runs last year and is expected to stay the same next year. Both he and Uggla are far from being elite hitters, but playing at defensive premium positions, they can provide significant value to the lineup.
The lineup will also consist of a catcher who was once seen as one of the best in the game, Brian McCann. Unfortunately for him, he has fallen off considerably in recent years, and put together a .230/.300/.399 line last year. He was once a great all around hitter, but last year, he showed below average contact hitting and power skills. His line is still not bad for a catcher, but the Braves are hoping for a lot more out of him. He is expected to begin the year on the injured list. He was worth about 3.945 eq. runs last year, though that number also included an unusually low BABIP. That shows he has been unlucky last year, and is likely to see some improvement in 2013. That improvement is to 4.885 eq. runs, according to my projections. Finishing out the lineup is the new third baseman Juan Francisco. Francisco replaces one of the Braves' all-time great players, Chipper Jones, and he will need to improve his line to make fans not yearn for Jones back. Last year, he put together a line of .234/.278/.432, showing he has some power. However, he needs to work on his contact considerably, since any OBP below .300 is unacceptable, especially at a non-defensively heavy position like third base. Last year he was worth 3.881 eq. runs, and that will need to improve if he doesn't want to be replaced.
The bench is expected to consist of catcher Gerald Laird, infielders Chris Johnson and Paul Janish, and outfielders Reed Johnson and Jordan Schafer. Gerald Laird will likely fill the catcher's role until Brian McCann returns from injury. Last year, he put together a .282/.337/.374 line, which is good for 4.375 eq. runs. He is not a bad catcher, but does not have the experience of an everyday role. He is expected to regress slightly to 4.093 eq. runs in 2013, which should be fine for a back-up catcher. Chris Johnson will likely give Juan Francisco some competition at third base. He was acquired from the Diamondbacks in the trade that brought Justin Upton to Atlanta, and played in an everyday role with the Diamondbacks and Astros last year. He put together a solid line of .281/.326/.451, good for about 4.913 eq. runs. His ceiling is not nearly as high as Francisco's but he could be a good stopgap is Francisco continues to struggle at the MLB level. Reed Johnson has been a very good right handed specialist in the outfield for the Braves in the past years. The outfield is very crowded with Heyward and the Uptons, but he provides value as a right handed bat off the bench and as a fourth outfielder. He was worth about 4.598 eq. runs last year, and is expected to regress slightly to 4.084 eq. runs. He is not an everyday player at this point in his career, but provides significant value off the bench.
The Braves lineup is sufficient, though it doesn't provide all that much star power. They need a great year from their pitching staff if they want to succeed in their run to the playoffs. They will return their entire rotation from last year. The top pitcher in the staff is veteran Tim Hudson. Hudson is no longer the power pitcher he once was, but he has been solid in recent years. He struck out 13.6% of the batters he faced last year, but he only walked 6.4%. He is also an excellent contact pitcher, giving up 1.23 ground balls for every fly ball. He is expected to give up about 3.82 runs per nine innings, which is solid for a middle of a rotation starter. As a top pitcher, more is expected. Fortunately for the Braves, their number two pitcher, Kris Medlen, has excellent peripheral stats. He is an above average strikeout pitcher (23.1%), control pitcher (4.4% walk percentage), and contact pitcher (1.18 GB / FB ratio), and that makes him one of the best young pitchers in the game. He is expected to give up about 2.65 runs per nine innings, which is great for a starting pitcher. The Braves will also return young pitcher Mike Minor. Minor is an average strikeout pitcher, striking out about 19.9% of the batters he faced last year. He also walked an average amount at about 7.7%. His contact pitching, though, is below average, as he got only about 0.55 ground balls for every fly ball last year. He is expected to give up about 4.45 runs per nine innings, which is ok for a bottom of the rotation starter. As a middle rotation starter, more is expected. And he may provide more, as he is still quite young.
The Braves will also return a very unflashy pitcher, Paul Maholm, whom they acquired from the Cubs in the middle of the season last year. Maholm is not a great strikeout pitcher, getting a 17.8% strikeout ratio last year. He is a good non-walk pitcher, giving up a walk in about 6.7% of the opposing plate appearances. He is also an above average contact pitcher, giving up about 1.06 ground balls for every fly ball, and that makes him an overall above average pitcher. He is expected to give up about 3.76 runs per nine innings. Like Hudson, he is a huge asset as a middle of the rotation starter and could be a top of the rotation starter on many teams. On the Braves, he is fourth. Finishing out the rotation is young Julio Teheran, who is expected to get better as he gets older. Last year, his peripheral stats were all below average, getting a 13.5% strikeout percentage, 8.1% walk percentage, and a 0.37 GB / FB ratio. A lot of this has to do with his youth, and a lot has to do with a limited sample size. As he gets older and more playing time, he will likely get better. However, for the time being, he is expected to give up about 5.27 runs per nine innings. If he really does that, he will probably find himself in the Minors sometime during the season.
The Braves' lineup is good, but not great. Their rotation is very good, but still probably not great. Their bullpen is great. It's probably one of the best bullpens in the game, and it all starts with closer Craig Kimbrel. I won't even say probably right now, at this point in his career, he is the best closer in the game. He struck out over half of the batters he faced last year, at 50.2%. One would think he would also give up a lot of walks, but he only gave up a walk in 6.1% of the opposing plate appearances. And as a contact pitcher, he is above normal, giving up about 0.96 ground balls for every fly ball. Unbelievably, he is only expected to give up 1.14 runs per nine innings, an extraordinarily low number. Their setup man, Jonny Venters, would probably be a very good closer for most teams in the league as well. He does strike out a lot of batters (26.3%), but he also walks his share (10.7%). 10.7% is not terrible when you strike out 26.3% of the batters you face, but he would still like to see improvement there. He is a very good contact pitcher, though, giving up 1.69 ground balls for every fly ball. He is expected to give up 3.26 runs per nine innings, which is still quite low. It's just not spectacularly low like Craig Kimbrel's. They also acquired a set up man from the Los Angeles Angels. In trading starter Tommy Hanson to the Angels, the Braves acquired Jordan Walden. Walden is like Venters, but struggles a bit more as a contact pitcher. He struck out 27.9% of the batters he faced last year and walked 10.5% of the batters he faced, which isn't a terrible ratio. However, Walden would likely like to walk a lot less. He does have a below average GB / FB ratio at 0.66, and that's the big difference between him and Venters. Venters is expected to give up 3.26 runs per nine innings while Walden is expected to give up 4.33 runs per nine innings. Overall, though, this is a top flight bullpen.
The Braves have a solid lineup, though there is no superstar hitter in there. Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, and B.J. Upton are all solid hitters, but none of them are elite. The rotation is solid and contains a potential superstar in Kris Medlen. However, their bullpen is what puts them over the top. They are in a decent division with the Nationals and the Phillies, but the Braves are expected to finish at the top this year. They are expected to finish atop the National League East with an 87-75 record.
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