There was a time not long ago that the Twins were amongst the most consistently successful (regular season) teams in baseball. The pitching staff won a ton of games and the lineup contained some of the best hitters in baseball, a few of them league MVPs. That time is now forgotten, after the Twins finished at the bottom of the NL Central in each of the past two years and have flirted with the 100-loss mark each of those seasons. Is there any hope for the Twins?
When we talk about the Minnesota Twins starting lineup, it must start with catcher Joe Mauer and first baseman Justin Morneau. Mauer was once one of the best young hitters in baseball, and he was one of a very select group who was considered a candidate to finish a season with the illustrious .400 batting average. Some of the luster has come off, but Mauer is still a spectacular hitter, putting together a .319/.416/.446 line. Mauer is not a huge power hitter (though he certainly has some), but he is one of the best hitters in the game at getting on base. It may be an unsustainable line (he had a .364 BABIP last year, after posting a .319 BABIP the year before), but despite that, he is still one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. He would probably be best used at the top or second in the lineup, so the bigger power hitters can hit him in. Speaking of players with more power, Justin Morneau returns to play first base for the Twins. He was once of the most feared cleanup hitters in baseball, and it seemed like a minor miracle that the Twins could keep both him and Mauer long term. He has fallen more considerably than Mauer, though. He is still a very good hitter, but a .333 OBP and .440 Slug % are far off his career norms prior to 2012. If he could find that power stroke again, the Twins would have a much more dangerous lineup, but at this point, Morneau isn't much more than a league average first baseman.
Perhaps the most feared power hitter on the Twins, though, is left fielder Josh Willingham, who is coming off a spectacular .260/.366/.524 season. He has always been a decent hitter, but last year, he left the realm of decent and became dangerous. He hit 35 home runs, and showed that he is more than just a nice hitter to have in the lineup. He is even more dangerous with a well-constructed lineup; with Mauer and Morneau hitting in front of him in the lineup, he could become an RBI machine. And he's not just dangerous with the longball; he can get on base as well, as shown by a well above average .366 OBP. Essentially the rest of the offensive prowess in this lineup will come from designated hitter Ryan Doumit. Doumit was once one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, but now he has to survive solely off the bat. That may not be a terrible thing; he put together a line of .275/.320/.461, showing that he can get on base at an okay clip, but he also has a ton of power. Also returning to the lineup is third baseman Trevor Plouffe. He put together a solid .235/.301/.455. He has some work to do getting on base, but he also seemed to get unlucky at getting hits (BABIP was .244 last year). If he can bring that up to league average, Plouffe could be a solid on-base hitter with serious power. A lineup with a core of Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, and Plouffe could be exceptionally dangerous.
However, the rest of the lineup is very weak. Mauer and Willingham are expected to be 6+ eq. run players, while Plouffe, Doumit and Morneau are expected to be in the 4.9 - 5.0 eq. run range. The only remaining player in the starting lineup with an eq. run statistic above 4 is veteran second baseman Jamey Carroll. He has virtually no power left (his line last year was .268/.343/.317), but he can get on base. However, he is getting up there in years and he can't be expected to play much better as time goes on. Chris Parmelee will return in a much less crowded outfield to start at right field. With both Denard Span and Ben Revere gone, Parmelee will be expected to produce more in the lineup. Last year, he put together a line of .229/.290/.380, showing he has some power, but also that he could be a liability on offense with such a low on-base percentage.
Darin Mastroianni will return to the Twins and play an expanded role in the outfield this year. He can also be called the replacement for Span and Revere, since he has significant speed and is expected to start the year as a lead-off hitter. While OBP should play a bigger role in determining who should bat at the top of the order (Mastroianni's last year was .328, much lower than Mauer's), speed often plays a role, so Mastroianni can be expected to start the year as the leadoff hitter. Finishing up the lineup is defensive specialist shortstop Pedro Florimon, Jr. At any other position (outside of pitcher and probably catcher), Florimon would be an afterthought at the Major League level (.219/.272/.307 and 2.643 equivalent runs last year), but Florimon's defense (along with the fact that there aren't many better options in the Twins' organization) keeps him in the lineup. He would be much better suited to a minor role as a backup infielder and defensive specialist.
One glaring weak spot for the Twins is the bench, which consists of catcher Drew Butera, first baseman Jeff Clement, infielder Eduardo Escobar, and outfielder Brandon Boggs. Drew Butera has been a very good defensive catcher, but he is not a solid option to play more than one in ten games. With Mauer making a slow transition to first base, Butera will have to improve on offense (.198/.270/.279 last year with 2.381 equivalent runs) if he wants to stay relevant with the Twins. The other notable name on this bench is Jeff Clement, who was once one of the best prospects in baseball. He has been nothing but a terrible disappointment, putting together a career line of .218/.277/.371 and a .193/.233/.343 line since 2010. If it wasn't for his one time prime prospect status, Clement would not be sniffing the Major Leagues, but perhaps the Twins can find some kind of offensive spark to make Clement an ok baseball player. He is far away from being one at this point.
The Twins pitching staff went through a big makeover over the last offseason and is now totally different from what it was even a year ago. The top three pitchers are all new to this franchise. The most accomplished pitcher of this group is Vance Worley, who is probably most famous for finishing his rookie season 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 2011. Worley has come back to earth in the last year, and his underlying stats (18.1% K percentage, 8% walk percentage, 0.84 GB / FB) indicate he is an average 4.30-ish eq. run against pitcher. As a middle or bottom of the rotation starter, he would be very good. However, as an "ace" of the staff, he isn't great. The Twins also brought in two control pitchers. Kevin Correia is coming off a decent year with the Pirates. He is a very good walk pitcher (6.3%) and a very good contact pitcher (1.09 GB / FB), which makes up for his weaknesses as a power pitcher (12.2% strikeout percentage). Much like Worley, he would be a solid option at the bottom of the rotation, but as a top of the rotation starter, he is below average. The Twins also took a gamble on Mike Pelfrey, who only pitched two games last year with the Mets. Over the last two years, Pelfrey showed he was very much like Kevin Correia (12.5% K percentage, 7.3% BB percentage, 0.88 GB / FB), and he could be considered a good buy-low candidate. Usually, though, buy-low candidates work as number 5 starters, not middle of the rotation starter.
The Twins will return two bottom of the rotation starters: Liam Hendriks and Brian Duensing. These Twins clearly place good control over power pitching, since these pitchers do not strike out many batters but also don't walk many batters. Hendriks struck out a mere 13.1% of batters last year but only walked 6.8%. His GB / FB ratio, though, wasn't anything to write home about at 0.70, giving him an expected eq. run against statistic of 4.60. Duensing is a bit better at striking out batters (14.6%) and at not walking batters (5.7%). He is also better at contact pitching (0.90), and these minor improvements on Henriks decreases his expected eq. run against statistic to 3.98. In all reality, there is not an ace in this bunch, and the pitcher who starts the year as the number 5 pitcher (probably Duensing) could end the year as the best pitcher in the rotation.
The closer, though, is set. Glen Perkins has quietly become one of the top closers in baseball. He has a very rare ability to strike out a ton of batters (27.8%) without walking many (5.7%) and he does it all as an average contact pitcher (0.75 GB / FB ratio). He is not well-known because he is with a struggling franchise, but Perkins has become one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball (2.56 ERA last year, 3.10 expected eq. runs against in 2013). However, the Twins also have a solid setup pitcher in Jared Burton. Like pretty much everybody on the Twins, he barely walks anybody (6.5%), but he can strike out pbatters at a decent rate (22.5%). His GB / FB ratio is 0.91, which is better than Perkins, and above average overall. Another option late in games is Casey Fien, whose non-contact pitching stats are very similar to Burton's (22.7% K percentage, 6.4% walk percentage). However, as a contact pitcher, he's terrible (0.33 GB / FB ratio last year). When you give up 3 times as many fly balls as ground balls, it is very difficult to keep the ball in the ballpark and on the infield. However, overall, if you want to score runs against the Twins, it would be advisable to do it before the seventh inning; the end of the Twins' bullpen is impressive.
The Twins have a very top-heavy and shallow lineup, a dependable but unspectacular pitching staff, and a very good bullpen. Still, it is very difficult to see the Twins improving significantly in 2013. They will win a few more games, but they will finish 4th in the AL Central with a projected 75-87 record.
When it comes to teams dealing with futility, nobody beats the Pirates. The last time they finished a season with a record above .500, George Bush Sr. was president, Brett Favre was backing up Don Majkowski with the Packers, and Barry Bonds' neck was twelve sizes smaller and hitting home runs for the Pirates. Ever since then, Pittsburgh has not made the playoffs or even finished above .500. Going into August each of the past two years, it seemed like Pittsburgh might exorcise those demons; unfortunately for them, they couldn't even finish with a winning season. Will 2013 be a year of change for the Pirates?
The starting lineup revolves around superstar Andrew McCutchen, the starting centerfielder. He is amongst the best in the game in pretty much every aspect. He can hit for average (.327 average last year, .400 OBP), he can hit for power (.553 Slug % last year), he can field very well, and he can run (20 stolen bases last year, though he got caught 12 times, making him a net liability on the basepaths). He is one of the top hitters in baseball, and he has been in the MVP discussion the past two years. He will remain one of the top hitters in baseball, though he may regress a bit in 2013. His BABIP in 2012 was .375, and that is higher than his career average of .326 and his 2011 BABIP of .291. No one in the Pirates' lineup really comes close to him in offensive prowess; however, Garrett Jones, the starting first baseman, has some power. His line last year of .274/.317/.516 shows he can knock the ball out of the ballpark and get on base some. Outside of McCutchen, Jones is the biggest power threat in the lineup, and is a solid cleanup candidate who can hit over 30 home runs in a season. It is unrealistic to think of him as a "great" hitter, but he can hold his own in this lineup.
Two other solid hitting infielders are returning to the Pirates' starting lineup. Once considered a disappointing prospect, Pedro Alvarez will return to start at third base this year. He is a similar hitter to Garrett Jones (.244/.317/.467), but it is unclear whether 2012 was a fluke or the start of a solid career. In 2011, Alvarez hit to the tune of .191/.272/.289. It is clear that he has some holes in his swing, but when he makes contact, the ball is hit hard. Also returning is second baseman Neil Walker, who comes back with some power but who makes his career hitting to get on base. His line last year was .280/.342/.426. His OBP sets him up as a solid top of the lineup hitter, and with an expected eq. run statistic of 4.872 runs in 2013, he can be expected to be a decent hitter in this lineup.
The Pirates also have a newcomer who is expected to have an impact in 2013: Starling Marte, the projected starting left fielder. He is expected to begin the year as the leadoff hitter, though in limited playing time last year, he only got on base 30% of the time. His line was still decent, though, at .257/.300/.437, and he is expected to be an integral part of the Pirates' lineup for years to come. The Pirates will also welcome another newcomer to the starting lineup through free agency: catcher Russell Martin. Martin was actually signed by the Pirates after they offered more for his services than the Yankees did. He had a decent year last year (.211/.311/.403), but the thing that is intriguing about him is that he was terribly unlucky last year with a .222 BABIP. If he can improve on that and hit closer to the league average BABIP, he will be an impressive piece to this lineup.
Finishing out the lineup will be right fielder Travis Snider and shortstop Clint Barmes. Snider was once a decent prospect with the Toronto Blue Jays, but now he is looking to revitalize his career with the Pirates. Last year, he put together an ok season with a .250/.319/.378 line. He can get on base some, but considering the fact that he doesn't hit for much power, he needs to get on base more to be an important fixture in the Pirates' lineup. One of the most disappointing parts of the Pirates starting lineup last year was Clint Barmes, who signed a multi-million dollar deal last offseason and finished the year with 2.761 equivalent runs per game (.229/.272/.321 line). He hit for virtually no power, and his OBP was not acceptable. Even worse, his BABIP was around his career average, so it's not out of the question that he won't improve. He needs to be able to take more walks or hit for more power to secure a spot in this lineup for the entire year.
The Pirates have an intriguing bench this year, and it's made up of catcher Michael McKenry, first baseman Gaby Sanchez, infielder Brandon Inge, utilityman Josh Harrison, and outfielder Jose Tabata. Michael McKenry has become one of the better backup catchers in baseball, and he took over the starting duties for struggling Rod Barajas last year. His batting average isn't impressive (.223), but he hit for some power (.442) and was able to get on base at a decent clip (.320). It probably won't be long until he is a starting catcher, and his success makes the signing of Russell Martin a little bit of a mystery. Jose Tabata is another good backup for the Pirates. He is coming off a disappointing year after signing a long term deal with the Pirates, but as a fourth outfielder, he is a very good option. Last year, in a disappointing year, he hit at a .243/.315/.348 clip, good for 3.744 equivalent runs per game. He seemed to get a bit unlucky last year, though, and he is expected to move his equivalent runs statistic back above 4.000 in 2013.
The entire starting rotation for the Pittsburgh Pirates returns from last year. The ace of the staff is the resurgent A.J. Burnett. He is coming off one of the best seasons of his career when he went 16-10 with a 3.51 ERA. The impressive thing is that he could be even better. He struck out quite a few (21.2%), walked relatively few (7.3%) and he is very good at pitching to contact (1.34 GB / FB). That is good for an expected equivalent runs against of 3.29, making him a solid top pitcher of the Pirates' staff. However, he has to avoid pitching like he did with the Yankees; with them, he showed that turning from a really good pitcher to a really bad pitcher can happen over the course of a season. Also returning is Wandy Rodriguez, who the Pirates acquired from Houston in the middle of last season. He isn't really a strikeout pitcher (15.9% K percentage), but his low walk percentage (6.4%) and high GB/FB ratio (0.95) make him a solid middle of the rotation option. James McDonald is a different type of pitcher than Rodriguez. He was a Cy Young candidate through the All Star break last year, but fell apart in the second half of last year. He can strike batters out at a high rate (21.2%) but unlike Burnett, he struggles with control (9.7% BB percentage) and with contact pitching (0.66). He is probably best suited as a bottom of the rotation starter.
The bottom of the Pirates rotation is set with contact pitcher Jeff Karstens and youngster Kyle McPherson. Karstens is a notorious innings eater. He does not strike out many batters (17.7%), but he is exceptional at not giving up walks (4%). This makes his contact pitching crucial, and he is only average at that (0.61 GB / FB ratio). If he could find a way to induce more ground balls while keeping the walk rate so low, Karstens could be an important, albeit quiet, weapon. In limited time last year, McPherson didn't show any major weaknesses in any of the three major underlying stats (19.6% K percentage, 6.5% BB percentage, 0.85 GB / FB ratio). He has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter, but he has to maintain his overall pitching prowess. He has the potential to strike out more batters, but he has to make sure that he doesn't increase his strikeout percentage a little by increasing his walk percentage a lot. Francisco Liriano also figures to play a role for the Pirates this year. He is a dangerous pitcher at striking out batters (24.1%), but batters also should beware his errant pitches (12.6% walk percentage). He is the anti-Jeff Karstens in that he can overpower hitters, but does so by giving up way too many walks. If he wants to become the ace he once was, he needs to fix that quick. If he doesn't, he will give up way too many runs for his own good.
The new closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Jason Grilli, who is replacing former all star closer Joel Hanrahan, who was traded to Boston. Grilli is excellent at striking out batters (36.9% K percentage), but he needs to control his pitches better (9%). While he doesn't give up much contact, he does also need to improve that if he wants to become an above average closer. His 0.44 GB / FB ratio last year will not cut it. Another option will be short reliever Mark Melancon, who is an overall solid pitcher. He strikes out batters at a good clip (21.1%) without walking too many (6.2% BB percentage). On top of that, he induces a lot of ground balls (1.03 GB / FB ratio), and he is expected to have an equivalent runs against statistic in the 3.41 range in 2013.
The Pittsburgh Pirates seem to be showing signs of improvement in recent years, but the brilliant flashes seem to disappear by the end of the year. They have a chance to be good, but it may take another year or two of middling before they are ready to make any real noise in the National League. They are projected to finish the year fourth in the NL Central with a 75-87 record.
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