Over the last three years, it'd be very difficult to find a team that has been more successful than the Texas Rangers. They made the World Series in 2010 and 2011, and made the playoffs in 2012. However, 2012 was seen as a disappointment. In control of the division all year, they sputtered to the end of the season. On the last day of the season, they lost the title to the upstart Oakland Athletics, and the Rangers were stuck playing in the American League Wild Card game against the Baltimore Orioles. They lost that game, and saw their season come to a quick end. They should be able to compete again in 2013, and there is a good chance they can continue their recent legacy of winning.
The offensive star for the Texas Rangers last year was veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre. Beltre is known as a very streaky player, and last year was a high year for him. He hit for a .321/.359/.561 line, showing that he has a good ability to get on base, but also that he has huge power. A .920 OPS doesn't come along very often, and neither does a 6.682 eq. run statistic, which Beltre put together last year. That is the line of an elite Major League hitter. If he can keep that up, he will be an extremely powerful bat in an extremely powerful lineup. He is expected to regress slightly to a 6.306 eq. run player, but as mentioned, he is very streaky. He could repeat a 6.682 eq. run season or he could fall below 5 eq. runs. The Rangers will also return left fielder David Murphy, who quietly put together another elite line last year, at .304/.380/.479. That is good for 6.199 eq. runs, and anything over 6 is seen as elite. He is, for the most part, a fairly unknown player, but he can hit. Although he is expected to regress slightly to 5.908 eq. runs next year, he will be an integral park of this lineup. If he keeps on hitting like he has been, he will be a well known hitter before long.
The Rangers did lose slugger Josh Hamilton in the offseason, and even worse, they lost him to their rival, the Los Angeles Angels. They also lost slugging catcher Mike Napoli via free agency last year to the Boston Red Sox. To make up for this loss of offensive production, they brought in a few bats. At designated hitter, the Rangers brought in Lance Berkman, the former St. Louis Cardinal. Two years ago, he was one of the top hitters in baseball. However, he struggled with major injuries last year, only giving him a handful of plate appearances. Over the past two years, he has put together a line of .295/.408/.533. This shows that his power is still there, but he can get on base at an incredible rate. Over that time, he has been worth an incredible 7.309 eq. runs. He is getting older, and injuries are playing a big role. However, his BABIP only suggests a regression to 7.178 eq. runs in 2013. Honestly, I don't know how much I believe that, but he could still be a top hitter in the game. The Rangers also brought in slugging catcher A.J. Pierzynski to replace Napoli. Pierzynski was a Silver Slugger last year with the White Sox as he put together a .278/.326/.501 line. His OBP is satisfactory, but his real offensive asset is his power. Two years ago, Napoli was one of the top ten hitters in the game, and despite a disappointing year last year, he was still a good hitter. Pierzynski is expected to continue that trend, and be worth 5.662 eq. runs in 2013.
The Rangers will return the rest of their infield. The face of the Rangers' franchise at this point is likely second baseman Ian Kinsler, who has shown skill with the bat despite playing a defensive premium position. Last year, he put together a line of .256/.326/.423, showing he has satisfactory contact and power hitting skills. He isn't really anything special at this point in his career, as he was worth 4.637 eq. runs in 2012. However, as a second baseman, he has above average abilities. He is expected to improve slightly to 4.800 eq. runs in 2013. At first base, the Rangers will return Mitch Moreland. More is expected of Moreland because of his position, and he was good at the plate last year with a .275/.321/.468 line. That is good for 4.995 eq. runs, which is probably about average for a first baseman. He has satisfactory ability to get on base, but a decent amount of power. He is expected to regress in 2013, but only slightly to 4.840 eq. runs. For a first baseman, that is average. However, this lineup is full of top flight hitters and as long as Moreland can be a satisfactory supporting bat, he will help the Rangers. Finishing out the infield is speedy shortstop Elvis Andrus. Andrus, who is expected to bat near the top of the order with the Rangers, is well placed there, as shown by his .286/.349/.378 line last year. A .349 OBP shows that his an above average contact hitter. He doesn't have much power, but as a top of the lineup hitter, his job is to get on base for the power hitters like Berkman, Beltre, Murphy, and Pierzynski. He is also an above average defensive shortstop, so he will play a big role with the Rangers this year.
The rest of the Rangers' lineup will consist of the remaining outfielders. In right field is Nelson Cruz, another streaky power hitter. Last year was a down year for Cruz, as shown by his .260/.319/.460 line. He is not much of a contact hitter, though he wasn't bad in that field last year. His real asset at the plate is power, and last year was a relative down year for him. He was worth about 4.878 eq. runs last year, which is still good for a supporting player in a lineup, but he expects more. He is also under scrutiny this year because of PED accusations in the offseason. He is projected to hit for just about the same amount of production last year, as he is projected to hit worth 4.864 eq. runs in 2013. The last member of the lineup is prospect Leonys Martin, the center fielder. He has a lot on his shoulders, as he is replacing the former star of this lineup, Josh Hamilton, in center field. Martin only has limited experience at the Major League level. However, he was a star in AAA. It is hard to put together a good Major League equivalent line from AAA, but he put together a .300/.348/.490 Major League equivalent line last year, showing he has good ability to get on base with significant power. That is worth 5.713 eq. runs. As with any Minor Leaguer, they could be a big surprise or a big disappointment. My projection is that Martin will succeed at the Major League level, but there is precedent for the best Minor Leaguers struggling at the Major League level.
The Rangers' bench is expected to get some playing time and it consists of some decent player. It consists of catcher Geovany Soto, corner infielder/outfielder Jeff Baker, middle infielder Leury Garcia, and outfielder Craig Gentry. With an older catcher behind the plate, he will not be able to play every day. Geovany Soto, the former Rookie of the Year with the Chicago Cubs, will back up Pierzynski. Since being Rookie of the Year, Soto has been disappointing. Last year, he put together a line of .198/.270/.343, worth only about 2.917 eq. runs. He is expected to improve to 3.886 eq. runs in 2013, but he has the potential to be better. He used to be able to hit for a lot of power and for a high OBP; if he can do that, he will be worth so much more. With an outfield losing a star player and replacing him with a young prospect, Craig Gentry's role will be important. He showed that he could be valuable with the bat last year with a .304/.367/.392 line. It is unlikely he can maintain that kind of line, as he has little power and his OBP is exceptionally high, but he could still be extremely valuable as a fourth outfielder. Last year, he was worth 5.097 eq. runs. He is expected to regress to about 4.546 eq. runs, but that is still a very good number for a backup outfielder.
The Rangers lineup is full of power, but their rotation isn't quite as good. It's decent, but it is far from elite. The top pitcher in the Rangers' staff is Yu Darvish, who pitched decently as a rookie last year from Japan. He is a great strikeout pitcher (27.1% strikeout percentage). However, he does walk 10.9% of the batters he faces. That offsets a lot of the good he does as a strikeout pitcher, but when you strike out that many, you can walk a few more batters. He is also an average contact pitcher, getting about 0.88 ground ball for every fly ball. He is expected to give up about 4.23 runs per nine innings, which is satisfactory for a middle or bottom of the rotation pitcher. As a top pitcher in a rotation, that is not good. The Rangers will also return Matt Harrison, who put together a solid 3.29 ERA last year. However, his peripheral stats are predicting regression. He strikes out relatively few, at 15.2% while walking fairly few as well, at 6.7%. He is an above average contact pitcher, getting 0.98 ground balls for every fly ball, but he is still expected to give up about 4.07 per nine innings, which is acceptable for a middle of the rotation starter. The Rangers will also return Derek Holland. He is a decent strikeout pitcher, striking out 19.9% of the batters he faced last year. He walks an average amount at 7.1% of the batters and is a slightly below average contact pitcher, getting 0.77 ground balls for every fly ball. Overall, he is a solid middle of the rotation starter, giving up about 4.04 runs per nine innings. None of the top three pitchers in the rotation are aces, but they are all acceptable in a middle of the rotation role.
The remaining two pitchers in the rotation are actually expected to be better than the top three. Alexi Ogando returns as a middle of the rotation starter for the Rangers. He is a good strikeout pitcher without the baggage of being a bad control pitcher. He strikes out about 25.1% of the batters he faced while only walking about 6.5% of the batters he faced. That's a very good ratio. His contact pitching could use some improvement, as he gives up only 0.63 ground balls per fly ball, but his other ratios more than make up for that. He is expected to give up about 3.65 runs per nine innings. The final piece of the rotation will likely start the season on the injured list. That would be Colby Lewis, who is a very good all around pitcher. Last year, he struck out a decent number, 21.8%, while only walking an astroundingly low 3.3%. That kind of ratio is very difficult to find. His weakpoint is as a contact pitcher, who gives up about two fly balls for every ground ball. However, he is expected to give up about 3.34 runs per nine innings when healthy, which would make him a solid top of the rotation pitcher.
The Rangers have lost their expected closer, Neftali Feliz, to a significant injury. To replace him, the Rangers have Joe Nathan to close games. He is actually a superior option to close games, as he strikes out a ton (30.4%) while walking very few (5.1%). On top of that, he is an average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.83 ground balls per fly ball. Overall, he is a top closer in the game, giving up about 2.65 runs per nine innings. In most cases, the Rangers will be able to shorten the game to eight innings; if they lead after eight, they are very likely to win the game. The Rangers have another strikeout pitcher in their bullpen, though he is not as strong an option. He is Jason Frasor, who strikes out about 27.8% of the batters he faces. however, unlike Nathan, he walks way too many. Last year, he gave up a walk in 11.5% of the opposing plate appearances, taking away a lot of the success that usually comes with a high strikeout percentage. On top of that, he is a below average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.69 ground balls per fly ball. In the end, he is expected to give up about 4.55 runs per nine innings, which is not good for a end of the bullpen type pitcher. The Rangers have another option at the end of the bullpen, however. That would be Robert Ross, who is not a strikeout pitcher. He only strikes out about 17.7% of the batters he faced last year while walking 8.7%. That is not a good ratio, but he still has a decent amount of success. That is likely due to his contact pitching, where he give up about 1.66 ground balls per fly ball. Because of that contact pitching, he is only expected to give up 3.51 runs per nine innings, which is satisfactory for an end of the bullpen pitcher.
The Rangers have a decent pitching staff and bullpen. They're not anything to write home about, but they will keep the Rangers in games and give them a good chance to win many games. However, the real stars of this team are the members of the lineup. The Rangers are expected to have the second best offense in the American League, and most pitching staffs will keep that kind of production in games. They are expected to avoid a late season slump and win the division this year with a 90-72 record.
3. Cincinnati Reds
Last year, the Cincinnati Reds won the tough National League Central over the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Pittsburgh Pirates. They did it with an good lineup, a very good rotation, and a great bullpen. They were an all-around solid team. However, they did have one other thing on their side: luck. While they did see an injury to their MVP-caliber first baseman, they got exceptionally lucky in their rotation, where their five starters at the beginning of the year started 161 of the 162 regular season games last year. However, the National League Central is expected to be even better in 2013, and sometimes luck runs out. Their combination of offense and defense, however, make them a prime contender in this division.
When talking about their offense, it all really begins with their former MVP first baseman, Joey Votto. If he was healthy all year last year, he would have likely been MVP, but would have at least been one of the very top options. However, even with his injury, he was extremely valuable to the Reds, as shown by his out of the world line, .337/.474/.567 line. When most people look at the stats of a power hitter like Votto, they miss out on the best part of his line. His OBP was .474. He got on base 47.4% of the time he stepped up to the plate. That is exceptional, and it was worth 9.004 eq. runs last year. His BABIP was exceptionally high, however, and he is expected to regress significantly. However, a significant regression brings him down to 7.855 eq. runs, which keeps him as one of the top hitters in the game. While Votto is by far the best hitter on the team, he is not the only slugger. Another young slugger on this team is right fielder Jay Bruce. Last year, he hit for a line of .252/.327/.514, good for 5.583 eq. runs. He is a power hitter first with only average contact ability. However, as a middle of the lineup hitter, his average OBP will remain relatively hidden and his power will be important. He is expected to improve slightly to about 5.692 eq. runs. That keeps him out of the realm of elite hitters, but he is an important supporting bat to Votto in the lineup.
The rest of the Reds' outfield has a lot of power. One of the more pleasant surprises for the Reds last year was power hitting left fielder Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick struggled mightily with the Padres and Pirates in recent years, but last year, he became a solid power bat in the lineup with a .275/.346/.531 line. He is known as a power hitter who can hit 30 or more home runs a season, but he also has a good ability to get on base. It is concerning that he had some bad years recently, but Ludwick may have found the power stroke he had with the Reds. Last year, he was expecting to share time in left field; this year, he is expected to be an elite bat in the lineup. He hit for 6.112 eq. runs last year and is actually projected to improve slightly to 6.128 eq. runs. The Reds acquired corner outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the Cleveland Indians in the offseason for Drew Stubbs. However, the corner outfield spots are already filled by Ludwick and Bruce so Choo will be transitioned to a much more difficult position, center field. His defense will likely be a liability; however, he is best known for his offense. Last year, his line was .283/.373/.441, showing he has some power. However, his big asset is his OBP, and he could thrive near the top of the order for the Reds. He will provide a much bigger spark in the lineup than Stubbs did last year, but it will come at the cost of some defense. However, in baseball, offense trumps defense and Choo will be a welcome addition for the Reds.
One of the better players for the Reds in recent years was second baseman Brandon Phillips. He is a solid fielder, has a lot of speed, but also can hit for contact and power from a defense heavy position. Last year was a down year for him, at a .281/.321/.429 line, but he still shows some power. He has appeared to regress last year and is getting older. A bad sign is that his BABIP was high as well last year, and he is expected to regress further from a 4.606 eq. run player to a 4.562 eq. run player. However, he could very will find his power stroke again. If not, he could start to focus on being a contact hitter again and forgo some power in the process. Either way, however, at a defensive premium position like second base, Phillips is still a net positive. It isn't very often that a bench player is considered for Rookie of the Year, but last year, backup corner infielder Todd Frazier finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting last year. He played a lot of time at third base because starter Scott Rolen was getting up there in years. He also got a lot of time at first base while Joey Votto was injured, and he was a major reason the team didn't seem much of a drop in production when Votto went down last year. He put together a solid .273/.331/.498 line, showing he has a decent ability to get on base, but also that he had good power. Now that Rolen is gone from the Reds, Frazier is expected to take the everyday role at third base. If he can continue to be a 5.486 eq. run player, he will be a very welcome addition to the everyday lineup. Even if he regresses as expected to a 5.259 eq. run player, he will be welcome to the everyday lineup.
The Reds will also return catcher Ryan Hanigan, who was expected to at least be a part-time catcher at this point. Hanigan will likely still split time at catcher, but he has been impressive enough to keep the starting job for the Reds. Last year, he put together a line of .274/.365/.338 line. He has virtually no power, but his OBP is exceptional. Last year, he was worth about 4.572 eq. runs, and he is expected to fall only slightly to 4.538 eq. runs in 2013. It would be unconventional, but he would be great at the top of the order, as his lack of power would be hidden by the fact he'd be batting at a time where very few hitters are on base and his ability to get on base would be considered a plus when hitters like Phillips, Votto, Frazier, Choo, Ludwick, and Bruce are hitting behind him. However, the Reds have been putting shortstop Zack Cozart at the top of the order. He is not much of a power hitter, but he's not much of a contact hitter either. Last year, he put together a line of .246/.288/.399, showing he has very little power. His OBP is also way too low; it needs to be brought up to .300 to even be satisfactory for a defensive premium position like shortstop. As a hitter, especially a leadoff hitter, Cozart is not good. Last year, he was worth 3.736 eq. runs, and he is only expected to improve marginally to 3.775 eq. runs in 2013. He is young and could improve, but at this point, he is nothing but a bottom of the lineup hitter as a baseball player.
The bench for the Cincinnati Reds is expected to consist of catcher Devin Mesoraco, infielders Jack Hannahan and Jason Donald, and outfielders Chris Heisey and Xavier Paul. Mesoraco is a very young catcher who is expected to eventually take over for Hanigan behind the plate. However, while Hanigan is a great contact hitter, Mesoraco struggled all around at the plate last year, hitting for a .212/.288/.352 line. He has a lot of work to do to dethrone Hanigan from the starting role. Last year, he was only worth 3.305 eq. runs. A low BABIP last year indicates that he should improve to about 3.877 eq. runs due to just lack of bad luck, but even that is low given the expectations the Reds have for Mesoraco. Jack Hannahan is projected to be the top backup infielder for the Reds. He is not an offensive specialist and will have to depend on his versatility to maintain a spot with the Reds. Last year, he put together a line of .244/.312/.341, making him a below average contact hitter and a hitter with virtually no power. That is worth about 3.629 eq. runs, which is adequate for a backup middle infielder. Chris Heisey was expected to compete for a starting job last year, but lost out when Ryan Hanigan ran away with the job. However, Heisey is not a bad player and is good as a fourth outfielder. Last year, he put together a line of .265/.315/.401. That is a somewhat disappointing line, especially with the below average OBP. He is expected to regress from a 4.229 eq. run player in 2012 to a 3.935 eq. run player in 2013, but that is not terrible for a pinch hitting option and fourth outfielder. As an everyday player, the Reds would prefer something much better.
One of the major reasons Cincinnati had so much success last year was their rotation. Not only is their rotation very good, but they also only missed one start all year. That, in all likelihood, cannot be replicated. However, they are still expected to play a big role with the Reds. The ace of the staff is a perennial Cy Young candidate in Johnny Cueto. While he is known as a fireballing pitcher, he isn't a great strikeout pitcher, as he only struck out 19.1% of the batters he faced last year. However, his real skill is in his control, where he only walked 5.5% of the batters he faced last year. He is an above average contact pitcher as well, giving up about 0.96 ground balls per fly ball. In all, he is expected to give up about 3.50 runs per nine innings in 2013. That is very good, and that makes him a legitimate ace of the staff. The next pitcher in the staff is Mat Latos. He is more of a strikeout pitcher than Cueto, striking out 21.6% of the batters he faced last year. However, he doesn't do a bad job at giving up walks, as he only walks about 7.5% of the batters he faced. In addition, he has an average contact pitching line, giving up 0.85 ground balls per fly ball. Latos is more of the power pitcher while Cueto is more of a control pitcher; however, neither is bad at either of those categories. Latos is a legitimately good middle of the rotation starter expected to give up about 3.90 runs per nine innings. The Reds will also return veteran Bronson Arroyo to the rotation. Arroyo is a more extreme version of Johnny Cueto. He strikes out much fewer batters than Cueto, at 15.5%. However, he walks even less, as he only walks 4.2% of the batters he faces. He is a slightly worse contact pitcher, as he give up 0.72 ground balls per fly ball. Because of this, he is expected to give up about 3.78 runs per nine innings, above average for a middle of the rotation starter.
The Reds will also return starter Homer Bailey to the rotation. Bailey has suffered from injuries and lack of control in the past, but finally seemed to put it all together in 2012. He struck out a decent number of batters, as he struck out 19.2% of the batters he faced. On top of that, he only walked 6% of the batters he faced and did this all as an average contact pitcher, giving up 0.84 ground balls per fly ball last year. In all, he is expected to give up 3.75 runs per nine innings, making him a solid and above average middle rotation starter. The fifth starter spot was expected to go to superstar closer Aroldis Chapman. However, he expressed a negative opinion about that role and was moved back to the bullpen. Therefore, the fifth starter will be a returner: young Mike Leake. Leake, like Cueto and Arroyo, is a control pitcher first. He only struck out about 15.3% of the batters he faced last year while walking only 5.4%. He is also an above average contact pitcher, giving up about 0.97 ground balls per fly ball. In all reality, Leake is a very good pitcher and an asset to the team. It's kind of amazing that the Reds were going to send him to the Minors to begin the year and they would still improve the rotation. Leake is expected to give up about 3.77 runs per nine innings, which is above average for a middle of the rotation starter and well above average for a bottom of the rotation starter. The whole Reds' rotation is very good and if they can stay as healthy as they did last year, they will be very difficult to beat.
As stated above, Aroldis Chapman was expected to start for the Reds in 2013. His skills were not being used enough as a closer and he could be more effective as a starter. Well, he expressed that he would rather be a closer and he is back in this role. He is a strikeout first pitcher capable of throwing 106 MPH. Last year, he struck out about 44.2% of the batters he faced while only walking 8.3%, a very good ratio. His contact pitching is a slight downfall, as he only gets 0.58 ground balls per fly ball. Even so, he is expected to give up only 2.60 runs per nine innings. That kind of line is spectacular for a closer. As a matter of fact, the reduced innings he would get as a closer compared to a starter changed the team from the second best team in the NL to the third best team in the NL. However, he is not the only good reliever in this bullpen. The Reds actually brought in Jonathan Broxton to close games. Now that Chapman is back as the closer, Broxton will take over the setup role. Last year, he had an 18.9% strikeout rate, which is slightly below average for the end of a bullpen pitcher, but his walk rate is good at 7.1%. In addition, he is a very good contact pitcher, giving up about 1.19 ground balls per fly ball. He is expected to be a very important piece to this Cincinnati Reds' bullpen in 2013. The Reds also return Sean Marshall to the bullpen. The lefty specialist is good enough to be a closer on most teams. He strikes out about 28.9% of the batters he faces while walking only 6.3% and getting 1.25 ground balls per fly ball. This leaves him as a 2.54 eq. run pitcher, a spectacular number for any pitcher. The combination of Chapman, Broxton, and Marshall will be a very tough combination to face late in games. To win games, teams will have to get to the rotation because the end of the bullpen will not give up many runs.
The Reds will return a good lineup that does depend significantly on one player, Joey Votto. There is a potential for more than one elite hitter in the lineup, but the only sure thing is Votto. The rotation got lucky last year since they did not get injured. However, they are well above average. The rotation consists of an ace and four above average middle rotation pitchers. The end of the bullpen is solid with Marshall, Broxton, and Chapman closing games. In the end, the decision to move Chapman from the rotation to the bullpen is expected to result in them moving from 2nd to 3rd in the league. In all reality, that doesn't matter much, but it does show that Chapman could be more important to the team in the rotation. In the end, the Reds are expected to finish second in the NL Central, make the playoffs as a wild card, and finish with an 88-74 record.
