2013 MLB Projections - 7th in the League

This is a continuing series containing projections for the 2013 baseball season.  The midpoint has been crossed in each league, and now the top half of the teams are about to be included in these projections.  The remaining teams will either be playoff teams, or in the case of the next two postings I will make, teams that will be in the playoff hunt until the end of the season.

7. Oakland Athletics

Outside of maybe the Baltimore Orioles, the Oakland Athletics were the most surprising team in baseball last year.  They shocked the baseball world when they surpassed the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers in the American League West and won the division.  Like many of Billy Beane's Athletics squads, they got eliminated in the divisional round, but they still surpassed expectations.  For me, they surpassed expectations by a reasonable amount; I projected them as a 79-83 team last year.  Many, however, picked Oakland to be the worst team in baseball last year.  It felt like a sequel to Moneyball.  Can they repeat?

The unheralded star of the Oakland Athletics last year was first baseman Brandon Moss.  Unless you followed the Athletics last year, you probably didn't know Moss hit for a .291/.358/.596 line last year, good for a .938 OPS.  When it comes to equivalent runs per game, Moss hit for 7.058.  It is very rare to get a player with over 7 eq. runs per game, and Moss was one of a very few players to exceed that threshold.  It is very unlikely to repeat; his BABIP last year was .359, whereas his career BABIP was .309.  In addition, he will be asked to play a bigger role; last year, he only had 296 plate appearances.  Still, even if he regresses significantly, he is expected to be worth 6.309 eq. runs, which would still make him an elite hitter.  The more popular star for the Athletics last year was Yoenis Cespedes, the left fielder who starred as a rookie from Cuba last year.  He put together a line of .292/.356/.505 last year, good for 6.019 eq. runs.  He is a very good all around hitter, with the capability to get on base at a very good rate and the capability to slug for significant power.  It is difficult to project a rookie player, even an experienced rookie like Cespedes, after one year.  He is expected to regress to becoming a 5.776 eq. run player, which is still very good.

The Athletics made two notable acquisitions of starters in the lineup this year.  In a three way trade with the Seattle Mariners and the Washington Nationals, the Athletics acquired John Jaso, another quietly solid hitter.  He is a typical Billy Beane player with an OBP significantly higher than his batting average.  His line last year was .276/.394/.456, showing that while he has some power, he is a top contact hitter in the game.  His BABIP (.298) was a bit higher than his career BABIP (.276), but when those numbers are both below .300, it is unknown whether the increase in BABIP was higher than average due to luck or due to regression to the mean.  In my projection, it was luck last year, and he is expected to decrease from a 6.233 eq. run player to a 5.891 eq. run player.  Either way, he would be a solid leadoff hitter (or at least top of the lineup hitter) for this team, getting on base for Moss and Cespedes.  The other acquisition they made was Jed Lowrie, who is expected to start at third base for the Athletics in 2013 and play some shortstop and second base as well.  With the Astros last year, Lowrie hit respectably, with a .244/.331/.438 line.  He has power and has a decent OBP given his batting average.  He is expected to be a decent top or middle of the order type player with the Athletics.

The Athletics' outfield consists of two other solid players.  In center field, Coco Crisp is expected to start.  Last year, he put together a .259/.325/.418 line, which was good for 4.571 eq. runs.  He is a solid contributing player in a lineup, and as long as he is not a star in a lineup, he is a nice piece to have.  He is expected to become a 4.805 eq. run player this year, and at a premium defensive position like center field, that is very good.   He is expected to lead off for the Athletics, which is strange, given the value the Athletics generally put on OBP.  Crisp's OBP is significantly below Jaso's, but in the end, it's not so low that it precludes him from being a productive leadoff hitter.  The starting right fielder is expected to be Josh Reddick.  Reddick put together a line of .245/.305/.463 last year, showing that he isn't a great OBP player (rare on the Athletics), but that he does have good power.  He is a decent middle of the order type player, meaning he can bring in players with higher OBP but might not get on base for the bottom of the lineup, which is less likely to bring in runs anyways.  Like Crisp, he is expected to improve this year; for Reddick, he is expected to improve from a 4.659 eq. run player to a 4.824 eq. run player.

The expected second baseman to begin the year is Scott Sizemore, another low BA, high OBP player.  Last year, he hit for a .245/.342/.399 line.  He is far from being a power hitter, but he can hit for a high OBP, making him a solid top of the order type player.  The Athletics seem to have a lot of them.  He is expected to regress some, from a 4.699 eq. run player to a 4.538 eq. run player, but he is still expected to be an important piece to this Athletics' lineup.  The Athletics will also return designated hitter Seth Smith.  Call me a broken record, but he put together a Beane-type line last year, with a .240/.333/.420 line.  He is above average as a contact hitter and decent as a power hitter, making him a good option anywhere in the lineup.  He is expected to improve some from a relatively low BABIP year, from a 4.735 eq. run player to a 4.973 eq. run player.  The last expected member of the lineup, on the other hand, is a rookie from Japan, Hiroyuki Nakajima.  As with any rookie player, especially players from other countries, it is very difficult to predict their production.  Nakajima, however, is expected to struggle at the plate this year.  Last year, in Japan, he hit for a .311/.382/.451 line.  That looks good, and may be a sign of a good hitter; however, Japan's Major Leagues are equivalent to about an AA team in the Majors.  If that line was an AA line, the Major League equivalent would be .237/.287/.332, which is only good for about 3.112 eq. runs.  Again, he could prove to be a big surprise or an immense disappointment, it's very difficult to project.

Another trademark of the Athletics' lineup is the use of platoons very often.  This makes the Athletics' bench very important.  It is expected to be made up of catcher Derek Norris, infielders Daric Barton and Josh Donaldson, and outfielder Chris Young.  Derek Norris is expected to share playing time with John Jaso on a righty/left basis.  He put together a .201/.276/.349 line last year, good for 3.072 eq. runs.  He will need to improve significantly if he wants to play a big offensive role with the Athletics.  A .276 OBP is incredibly low for an Athletic everyday player, and over .100 points lower than John Jaso.  If those stats don't change, Jaso may get a few more starts against lefties than Norris would like.  Josh Donaldson is expected to share time with Brandon Moss, Hiroyuki Nakajima, and Jed Lowrie in the infield.  Last year, he put together a .241/.289/.398 line.  He has some power, but again, with producers like Moss and Lowrie in the lineup, his OBP will need to improve if he doesn't want to see his playing time dwindle.  Chris Young, whom the Atheltics acquired from the Diamondbacks in the offseason, had a good year last year and is expected to play the platoon role with Seth Smith.  Last year, Young put together a .231/.311/.434 line.  He has always been a low BA, high Slug % player, but even with his low BA, he put together a solid OBP last year.  It's not spectacular, but as a part-time player (especially one who plays primarily against lefties), that is a very good line.

The Athletics are expected to bring back most of their starting pitching staff from last year.  The ace of the staff is expected to be Brett Anderson, who is a solid all around pitcher.  Like the rest of the Athletics' pitching staff, he is only a lukewarm strikeout pitcher (18.3%), but he rarely walks anyone (5.1%) and his GB / FB ratio is exceptional (1.49 GB / FB last year).  That is good for an expected eq. runs against of 2.82 eq. runs, making him not just a very good pitcher, but one of the best pitchers in the game.  Also returning to the Athletics' staff will be Jarrod Parker.  Parker, like Anderson, doesn't strike out that many batters (only 18.6% last year), but unlike Anderson, he struggles with walks (8.4%) and is only average as a contact pitcher (0.80 GB / FB ratio).  Because of this, he is expected to give up about 4.41 eq. runs per nine innings, which isn't terrible, but the Athletics would prefer something a bit lower from their number two pitcher.  Luckily for the Athletics, they are expecting a better number two pitcher to return to the rotation in veteran Bartolo Colon.  Colon is currently serving a 50 game suspension for being caught with PEDs; however, his pitching line would not indicate that.  He is certainly not a power pitcher (14.3%) and relies on being a solid control pitcher (3.6%) and being an average contact pitcher (0.86 GB / FB).  Because of this, he is expected to be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher (3.57 expected eq. runs against), if he can take the ridicule he will take from opposing fans.

The rest of the Athletics' rotation is expected to consist of returning young players.  Tom Milone has a line very similar to Colon's.  He is a below average strikeout pitcher (17.3%), but very rarely walks anybody (4.6%) and is a slightly below average contact pitcher (0.64 GB / FB ratio).  He is expected to give up about 3.82 eq. runs per nine innings, again very good for a middle of the rotation type pitcher.  If he can continue at this pace, he will be a solid top of the rotation pitcher in the near future, albeit a non-power top of the rotation pitcher.  Finishing out the rotation will be A.J. Griffin, whose line resembles Brett Anderson's without the contact pitcher.  He strikes out an average amount of batters (19.1%) while walking very few (5.7%).  He is a below average contact pitcher (0.61 GB / FB ratio), but even despite that, he is expected to give up fewer than 4 runs per nine innings (3.97 expected eq. runs against).  Overall, this is a solid rotation with one ace, three above average middle rotation pitchers, and an average bottom of the rotation starter.  This is true despite a pitching staff with a very low strikeout rate.

The Athletics' bullpen, on the other hand, is not expected to be quite as impressive.  The closer is expected to start the year on the injured list.  That would be Grant Balfour.  He has a good strikeout rate (24.9%), but his walk rate goes along with his last name (9.7%).  On top of that, he's not a very good contact pitcher (0.57 GB / FB ratio).  Because of this, he is expected to give up about 4.49 runs per nine innings, which is way too high for a closer.  The expected replacement closer will be Ryan Cook, who is a similar non-contact pitcher to Balfour.  He strikes out batters at a good rate (27.8%) while walking too many (9.4%).  He does get batters to hit into more ground balls (0.88 GB / FB ratio), so he is expected to give up about 3.81 runs per nine innings, which is much better than Balfour, but still high for a closer.  The best option may be Sean Doolittle, who struck out 31.4% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 5.8%.  However, his bad GB / FB ratio (0.54 GB / FB) holds him to a 3.09 expected eq. runs against.  Still, that is the expected eq. runs against statistic of a closer.

The Athletics have a solid all around lineup with a lot of contact hitters.  However, they depend on the platoon a lot, and this limits the plate appearances for the starting lineup.  The backups, on the other hand, have struggled a bit more, which makes their lineup weaker than if their starting lineup played every day (and was able to hit equally against lefties and righties).  Their pitching rotation doesn't have any flashy names, but they walk an incredibly small amount, making them a well above average rotation.  The bullpen, however, has warts.  This is a team that will remain in the playoff race last year.  However, in the end, the big money teams will be able to keep them from playing spoiler at the end of the year.  The Athletics are expected to finish third in the American League West with an 83-79 record.

7. Philadelphia Phillies

We go from a team that went on a surprising playoff run last year to a team that was one of the bigger disappointments in baseball last year.  For the past few years, the Phillies could be expected to have the best rotation in baseball and a well above average lineup.  They had three of the most feared hitters in baseball in their infield, and their lineup paled in comparison to their rotation.  However, age catches up to everybody.  They traded away two significant parts of their lineup last year (Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence), and their rotation hasn't been the same since Roy Oswalt started to struggle and eventually left.  Now, the Phillies are at a crossroads.  They're an old team with significant contracts still on the budget.  Will they come back and be a contender in 2013 or will they struggle again?

When talking about the Phillies' lineup, three names come to mind.  Probably the best of the group is second baseman Chase Utley, who is coming off an injury-riddled year that saw him hit .256/.365/.429.  This was not a typical year for him, and his power seems to be disappearing, as seen by his slugging percentage in the low .400s.  However, even with that line, he is worth about 5.414 runs per nine innings and he got unlucky last year with a .261 BABIP.  With some upward regression, he is expected to hit for about 6.177 equivalent runs, which would make him an upper echelon hitter in the game.  However, he has suffered injuries in the last few years and he is not getting younger; it is possible that he is no longer a top hitter.  Also returning to the middle infield for the Phillies is shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  Rollins was once a top hitter in the game, and since he did that while playing a premium defensive position, he was extremely valuable.  His skills have fallen, somewhat, and he is getting up there in years.  Last year, he hit .250/.316/.427, showing that his power is only slightly above average and he has had more trouble than in the past at getting on base.  He was worth about 4.497 eq. runs last year, which is well below his career average.  Like Utley, though, he had an uncharacteristically low BABIP, meaning that he is expected to be better next year.  He is expected to be worth about 4.866 eq. runs in 2013.  However, there are also age concerns with Rollins, and he may continue to regress as he gets older.  The third big name in this lineup is a big guy who plays first base, Ryan Howard.  Howard was once seen as one of the best pure hitters in the game.  However, that has fallen considerably, seeing as he put together a .219/.295/.423 line last year.  His power has fallen considerably and is now only slightly above average.  He was also once a good contact hitter, as seen by his .364 OBP.  Last year, his OBP was .295, which is well below average.  He had an injury riddled 2012, which may explain some of his downfall.  However, there is concern about his age as well, as players with high power but no speed don't generally age well (if you don't believe me, please remember Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, and even Mike Sweeney).  He is expected to improve from a 4.087 eq. run player to a 4.328 eq. run player, but that is still well below average for a first baseman.

Despite having a lineup containing Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard, the best hitter in the Phillies' lineup will likely be catcher Carlos Ruiz, who put together a .325/.394/.540 line last year.  He had an exceptionally high OBP and Slug %, and was on pace to become one of the top catchers in the game.  Unfortunately for him, however, he was caught as part of the drug program for Major League Baseball and is suspended for the first 25 games on 2013.  Even if the drugs did not improve his performance, he is expected to regress in 2013.  Last year, he was worth 7.114 eq. runs, and that kind of production generally does not last too long.  He is expected to drop to about 6.379 eq. runs, which would still make him a top hitter in the game.  The Phillies are also expected to start a returning outfielder.  Once an elite prospect in the game, right fielder Domonic Brown has fallen considerably and has been playing in a platoon for the past few years.  The Phillies have been impressed by his spring so far, but he still has to deal with a .235/.316/.396 line last year.  He doesn't have much power or much of an ability to get on base, and is likely only continuing to get these chances because of the prospect he once was.  However, a right fielder should have an eq. run statistic of over 4.2 runs.  Even if he improves as I suspect he will, he will be a 4.443 eq. run player, which is well below average for a right fielder.

The rest of the everyday starting lineup is expected to be made up of newcomers.  The Phillies traded Vance Worley to the Twins last offseason, and in return, they received speedy outfielder Ben Revere.  However, Revere is below average as a hitter, hitting for a .294/.333/.342 line last year.  Despite his speed, he is only slightly above average at getting on base and he has virtually no power.  He will definitely be an asset on defense and on the basepaths, but as a starter, he is well below average.  And unfortunately for the Phillies, he may be the best newcomer to the lineup.  Another newcomer to the lineup will be left fielder Delmon Young, a free agent pickup from Detroit.  He was once a top prospect, and he was once seen as such a clubhouse problem that he should not be in the Major Leagues.  He is certainly not a top hitter in the game and is still a nuisance in the clubhouse, but he can provide some value on offense.  Last year, he hit for a .267/.296/.411 line, showing he has some power but very little ability to get on base.  He is expected to improve from a 3.989 eq. run player in 2012 to a 4.131 eq. run player in 2013, but that is still well below average for a left fielder.  The final new piece to this lineup is going to be a clubhouse leader and a decent hitter for the last few years, Michael Young.  He is seen as a great teammate and a very versatile defensive player, playing pretty much every position outside of catcher and center field in recent years.  However, he is simply not the player he once was.  He hit .277/.312/.370 last year.  Like much of the Phillies' lineup, he was once a very good contact and power hitter, but now he is below average at both.  He had an uncharacteristically bad 3.888 eq. run year last year, but he isn't expected to be much better in 2013, as a 4.109 eq. run player.  It appears age has caught up to Michael Young.

As seen above, the bench may be more important than normal for the Phillies.  Not only is there a history of injuries and not only are there age issues, but the lineup also has players who are suspended and injured to begin the year.  The Phillies do have a very good bench, however, made up of catcher Erik Kratz, infielder Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Galvis, and outfielders John Mayberry, Jr. and Laynce Nix.  Because of the suspension to Carlos Ruiz, Erik Kratz is expected to play a big role with the Phillies this year.  As a backup catcher last year, Kratz showed unexpected power, as shown by his .248/.306/.504 line last year.  He doesn't hit for much contact, but he can expected to hold the catcher position down reasonably until Carlos Ruiz is back.  With Delmon Young expected to start the year on the injured list, Laynce Nix is expected to play a bigger role.  He was once a bigger prospect in the game, but like Domonic Brown, has been a disappointment at the Major League level.  Last year, he hit for a .246/.315/.412 line, which is decent for a backup, but disappointing for somebody who had the potential of Nix.  He is a below average hitter for a corner outfielder, but he will continue to get chances since the Phillies don't have many better options in the corner outfield positions.  One surprising player last year was backup corner infielder Kevin Frandsen, who put together a .338/.383/.451 line last year.  He showed some power, but a .383 OBP is exceptional.  It is very unlikely that he will be able to repeat those numbers, but with an aging corner infield consisting of Michael Young and Ryan Howard, he will get his chances.

The rotation for the Phillies was once seen as an all-time great rotation.  They are no longer that great, but they are still very very good.  The ace of the staff is Roy Halladay.  He was once one of the top fireballing pitchers in the game.  His strikeout percentage is still decent (20.4%) but it isn't as good as it once was.  However, he still doesn't walk all that many (5.6%) and is an average contact pitcher (0.80 GB / FB ratio), which equates to a 3.61 eq. runs against statistic.  Age is appearing to catch up to him as well, but he is still a reasonable choice at the top of the rotation.  However, the best pitcher in the rotation may have been the unluckiest last year.  With a 6-9 record last year and no wins through his first 13 starts last year, many pundits believe Cliff Lee lost his edge. However, he struck out a good amount of the batters he faced (24.4%) while being an elite control pitcher, as he only walked 3.3% of the batters he faced last year.  Combine that with an average GB / FB ratio (0.80), and he is expected to give up 2.76 eq. runs per nine innings.  That makes him one of the top pitchers in the game and he has appeared to age better than Lee.  The third remaining member of the "Big Four" pitching rotation of a few years ago is long-time Phillie Cole Hamels, who is still putting together some very solid seasons.  Last year, he struck out 24.9% of the batters he faced while only walking 6%.  He is also an average contact pitcher (0.76 GB / FB ratio), and all of that would make him a top of the rotation starter for most teams.  He is expected to give up 3.39 runs per nine innings next year, which is exceptional for a middle of the rotation starter.

The rest of the rotation isn't elite, but it's serviceable for the bottom of the rotation.  Kyle Kendrick returns and is an all around average pitcher.  His strikeout rate is likely slightly below normal (17.2%), his walk percentage is slightly below normal (7.3%), and his contact pitching numbers are average (0.87 GB / FB ratio).  That makes him a 4.18 eq. run pitcher, which is acceptable in the middle of the rotation and which makes him essentially a league average pitcher.  Filling out the rotation is former Washington National John Lannan.  His career path has been different.  For a while, he was seen as the top pitcher in the Nationals' rotation.  His skills don't seem to have fallen much, but with a full rotation last year, Lannan was forced to the minors for most of the year last year.  He was not impressive in limited time with the Nationals, with a 12.9% strikeout percentage, a 9.5% walk percentage, and a 1.24 GB / FB ratio.  Those are worse than his career numbers, but he has always been a very good contact pitcher who struggles with strikeouts and walks.  He is expected to give up about 4.60 runs per nine innings this year, which is fine for a fifth starter.

The closer is rightfully expected to remain former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon.  He is an exceptional strikeout pitcher (32.4% last year), a very good control pitcher (6.3% last year), and an average contact pitcher (0.73 GB / FB ratio).  It is very nice to have a good strikeout pitcher to close games, but it is essential to have them control their pitches as well.  Papelbon has that rare combination, making him one of the top closers in the game.  He is expected to give up about 2.89 runs per nine innings, very good for any pitcher.  The Phillies also acquired set-up pitcher Mike Adams as a free agent from the Texas Rangers in the offseason.  He isn't much of a strikeout pitcher for a reliever (19.7% last year) and he walks a fairly low number of batters (7.5%).  As a contact pitcher, he is above average, giving up 0.93 GB for every FB.  He is expected to give up 3.95 runs per nine innings.  That is likely a little above average for a set-up man, but he is a better option that the Phillies' other option.  That other option is Antonio Bastardo, who strikes out a ton of batters (36.2%).  He is not a good control pitcher at all, though, giving up a walk in 11.6% of the plate appearances against last year.  He is also a terrible contact pitcher, giving up about 0.40 ground balls for every fly ball last year.  Because of this, he is expected to give up 4.25 runs per nine innings, which is above what the Phillies would like from an end of the bullpen pitcher.

The Phillies are a once-great team that is seeing the effects of father time.  The lineup is aging, and outside of Carlos Ruiz, there is really no significant hitter in the Phillies' lineup anymore.  Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard are aging, and the rest of the lineup is below average.  The reason they will compete all year is their rotation, which still consists of elite pitchers in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels.  That rotation will keep them in many games, and will likely keep them in the playoff hunt all year.  However, their weak offense will get the best of them, as they are expected to have the third worst offense in the National League (better than only the Mets and Cubs).  In the end, this team looks like a .500 team, which is where I have them.  They are projected to finish third in the NL East with an 81-81 record.

2013 MLB Projections - 8th in the League

This is a continuing series containing projections for the 2013 MLB season.  So far, I have gotten through the bottom seven teams in each league.  At this point, I have already gone over two playoff teams (San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles) from last year.  Clearly we are out of the realm of bad baseball teams like the Astros, Mariners, Cubs, and Marlins and into the realm of average baseball teams.  Some of these teams could stay healthy, overachieve, or otherwise surprise and make a playoff run.  However, they just have some more ground to make up than the top third of teams in the Majors.

8. Tampa Bay Rays

For the first nine years of this franchise's existence, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were the embarrassment of baseball.  They attempted to build buzz by signing well known players who were well over the hill like Jose Canseco, Wade Boggs, and Greg Vaughn.  However, in 2008, the team changed its name to the Tampa Bay Rays, and the franchise turned around.  Despite being one of the least followed teams in the Majors (they consistently finish in the bottom of attendance in the MLB), they consistently find a way to compete in the most competitive division in Major League Baseball.  Occasionally, they need to get rid of higher paid players (like Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir) and they are replaced with younger players who make fans forget about the older players.  However, their offense has a few holes that will preclude them from finishing in the top half of the AL East this year.

The face of the franchise for the Tampa Bay Rays is third baseman Evan Longoria, one of the best young hitters in baseball.  In an injury shortened year last year, Longoria hit for a .289/.369/.527 line, showing he can get on base at a very good rate and with significant power.  He is the essential bat in the middle of the Rays' lineup, and even in an injury shortened year last year, Longoria hit for 6.497 eq. runs per nine innings.  He is expected to regress a tiny bit in 2013, but even so, he is expected to hit for 6.282 eq. runs, which still shows that he is an elite hitter in baseball.  Also returning is lesser known and ultra-versatile right fielder Ben Zobrist.  He can play all three outfield positions and second base, but he does it as one of the better hitters in baseball.  Last year, he hit at a .270/.377/.471 clip, showing he is a very good contact hitter with some pop.  He hit for at least 20 home runs in three of the last four years and for at least a .350 OBP in three of the last four years.  That is an important combination, making him a very good option at the top of the order for the Rays.  He hit for 6.060 eq. runs in 2012, and is expected to stay around that mark in 2013 with an expected 5.952 eq. runs in 2013.

Unfortunately for the Rays, the talent in the lineup falls significantly from there.  After Longoria and Zobrist, the top threat on offense is left fielder Matt Joyce.  Matt Joyce put together a respectable line of .241/.341/.429 last year, but as a left fielder, more should be expected.  His OBP is very good, but his power is probably less than average for a left fielder.  He hit for 4.969 eq. runs last year while hitting for a .281 BABIP.  Since his BABIP is below league average and his average, he can be considered unlucky last year, and he is expected to hit for a few more eq. runs last year, at 5.118 expected eq. runs in 2013.  Also returning after a brief stint as a free agent is designated hitter Luke Scott.  Scott is a below average designated hitter, hitting at a .229/.285/.439 clip last year.  It is wrong to think that is acceptable; the .285 OBP in particular is underwhelming.  He did get a bit unlucky last year at a .259 BABIP, but last year, he hit for 4.070 eq. runs.  For a guy whose lone job is to hit, that is unacceptable.  Even if his BABIP increases to around the league average, he can only be expected to hit for 4.509 eq. runs, which would make him a bottom of the order hitter for most good teams.  With players like Matt Joyce and Luke Scott having to play significant roles for the Rays, their offense is going to struggle in 2013.

Two other players will return to this Rays lineup, but neither are expected to provide much on offense.  As a matter of fact, these players may be better suited to be on the bench.  One is starting center fielder Desmond Jennings, who is expected to lead off for the Rays.  He has significant speed, but Jennings is the prime example of a player who has speed but only an average OBP.  Last year, he put together a line of .246/.314/.388.  He has very little power and his OBP is only average, meaning that he is at best a bottom of the order starter.  Lead off hitters should be able to get on base at least 33%-35% of the time so that the power hitters can bring them in.  With a lead off hitter not getting on that often, Longoria and Zobrist may struggle to pad their RBI numbers and, more importantly, their team's runs scored.  The other returning piece to the Rays' lineup is catcher Jose Molina.  Like his brothers, Molina is a very good defensive catcher.  Lucky for him, he is at one position where defense sometimes trumps offense.  His line last year was .233/.286/.355, which was good for 3.297 eq. runs.  He has virtually no power and is very poor at getting on base.  His asset is defense, and as a hitter, he is terrible.  He is best placed on the bench, but on an average or below average team, his defense could make him good enough to hit ninth in the order.

The rest of the Rays' lineup is new to this team.  The middle infield, as a matter of fact, played for the Toronto Blue Jays last year.  Starting at second base will be Kelly Johnson, who has always been a middling player, save for a big run a few years back.  Johnson put together a line of .224/.313/.365 line last year.  Johnson has never been a great average hitter, but he has been able to put together some power in the past.  Last year, though, he hit for a .365 slug %, showing virtually all of his power was gone.  As a second baseman, he can still survive, and in this weak lineup, he is an average hitter.  Still, though, Johnson would probably be a utility player in an average or good lineup.  The starting shortstop is Yunel Escobar, who put together an even weaker line last year.  He hit for a .253/.300/.344 line last year, for a pathetic .644 OPS and a 3.443 eq. run statistic.  He did get a little unlucky last year and is expected to increase that to 3.832 eq. runs.  However, in a good lineup, Escobar is a bench player.  He can field fairly well, but his days of being an effective hitter seem to be over.  Perhaps the player who was most disappointing last year who will start for the Rays is James Loney, the first baseman.  Unlike Molina, Johnson, and Escobar, Loney does not play at a position that requires great defense.  Usually, first base is an offense-first position.  His line last year, though, was a pathetic .249/.293/.336, good for a .629 OPS and a 3.251 eq. run statistic.  He seemed to get a bit unlucky last year, but even with a regressed BABIP, he is only expected to hit for 3.690 eq. runs.  With Johnson, Escobar, and even Molina, good lineups would place them on the bench.  With Loney, even bad lineups should put him on the bench or in the minors.  He has virtually no power and his OBP was below .300 last year.  That means he has no value to an offense.

The bench players for the Rays do not provide much depth.  The bench is made up of catcher Jose Lobaton, first baseman Shelley Duncan, infielder Sean Rodriguez, and utility player Ryan Roberts.  Lobaton will need to play a big role for the Rays, given the weakly hitting starting catcher, Jose Molina.  However, his offense is bad as well, as seen by his .222/.323/.317 line last year.  He has even less power than Molina, but there is a glimmer of hope shown by his okay .323 OBP.  If he can continue to get on base at that rate, he will continue to get his playing time.  Shelley Duncan will also have a chance to dethrone James Loney from the starting first base role.  However, he isn't significantly better at the bat, hitting for a .203/.288/.388 line last year.  He needs to get on base at a much higher rate than .288 to be a realistic choice to play first base.  Ryan Roberts, the former third baseman for the Arizona Diamondbacks, may also have a chance to take over the role at first base.  However, Roberts' line last year, .235/.296/.360, isn't much better than Loney's or Duncan's, and he only hit for about 3.515 eq. runs last year.  Sean Rodriguez is the utility infielder for the Rays, and though Johnson and Escobar are weak options in the middle of the infielder, he really isn't more than a utility infielder.  Last year, he hit for a .213/.281/.326 line, making him a backup infielder at best and a minor league infielder for most teams.

The Rays' saving grace is their pitching, which, as per usual, is expected to be very good this year.  The ace of this staff is a true ace, as shown by his Cy Young award last year.  David Price returns at the top of the rotation, and he excels at all three major underlying stats I look at in determining a pitcher's worth.  He strikes out nearly a quarter (24.5%) of the batters he faced.  He only walked 7.1% of the batters he faced, which is excellent given how many he's struck out.  And as a contact pitcher, he gets 1.14 ground balls for every fly ball he gives up.  He is expected to give up about 3.22 runs per nine innings, making him an elite pitcher.  The Rays actually have two other pitchers similar to Price, though they are seen as bottom of the rotation starters.  Alex Cobb returns and is a pitcher similar to Price.  He doesn't strike out as many as price (18.6%), but his walk rate is about the same (7%) and he has an extremely high GB / FB ratio (1.45).  He is expected to give up 3.29 runs per nine innings.  If he is able to keep up these underlying stats, Cobb will soon be another top pitcher in the game.  Also returning for the Rays is Jeff Niemann, who is probably even more similar to Price than Cobb was, albeit in limited playing time.  Niemann struck out 21.8% of the batters he faced while only walking 7.7%.  As a contact pitcher, he is also excellent, giving up 1.14 GB for every FB last year.  He is also expected to only give up 3.62 runs per nine innings, making him a solid middle of the rotation starter.

The rest of the rotation is made up of young players who have more experience in the Major Leagues.  Jeremy Hellickson returns, and he is more of a contact pitcher than anybody else in the rotation.  Unfortunately, he only gets 0.73 ground balls for every fly ball.  In addition to the fact that he isn't a great contact pitcher, he doesn't strike out many (16.7%) and he walks too many (8%).  He is expected to give up 4.55 runs per nine innings, which is okay for a bottom of the rotation starter.  Most teams would prefer a pitcher who would give up less at the bottom of the rotation, but 4.55 runs per nine innings is satisfactory.  Matt Moore, the other pitcher in this rotation, is expected to give up even more runs per nine innings (4.83 runs per nine innings).  That makes him a bottom of the rotation starter.  He struck out a good amount of batters last year (23.1%) but he did it while walking way too many (10.7%).  As a contact pitcher, he isn't very good either, giving up 0.61 ground balls for every fly ball.  He is a young pitcher and has a chance to improve, but at this point in his career, he is a clear bottom of the rotation starter.

The best part of this Rays' team is their bullpen.  Veteran closer Fernando Rodney is one of the top closers in the game.  He strikes out 27% of the batters he faces while only walking 5.3%.  On top of that, he got 1.38 ground balls for every fly ball last year.  This makes him an elite closer, expected to give up about 2.31 runs per nine innings.  It is uncertain that he can continue at this rate, but even a slight slip in these stats would make him a very good closer.  Set-up man Joel Peralta is even better at striking out batters, striking out nearly a third (31.8%) of the batters he faced last year while walking only 6.4% of the batters he faced.  As a contact pitcher, he is bad, only getting 0.44 ground balls for every fly ball, but he is still only expected to give up 3.32 runs per nine innings, making him a spectacular reliever.  If Rodney slips, though, the best option to close will likely better set-up man Jake McGee.  McGee is even better than Rodney and Peralta at striking out batters (34.4%) and not walking them (5.2%).  His contact pitching rates are average as well (0.79 GB / FB ratio).  He is a left handed specialist, meaning he is extremely dangerous against left handed batters, but these numbers show that he could be much more than that.  He is expected to give up about 2.40 eq. runs per nine innings in 2013.  If he was to close with these numbers, he would be an elite closer.  Even so, he is an elite set-up man and left handed specialist.

The Rays have a solid pitching staff and their bullpen is probably the best bullpen in the game.  It is hard to come up with a pitcher better than David Price, and a late-game bullpen combination that is better than Rodney, Peralta, and McGee.  However, their weakness is in their lineup.  They have two elite hitters (Longoria and Zobrist) and one average hitter (Joyce).  However, the rest of the lineup is weak, and that will hold the Rays back this year.  They are expected to finish fourth in the AL East this year with an 82-80 record.

8. Los Angeles Dodgers

Coming up right in the middle of the National League is a team expected by most pundits to be a playoff team this year, the Los Angeles Dodgers.  For the past few years, the Dodgers have been in a tough financial situation due to the ownership situation.  Now that Magic Johnson's business group has purchased the Dodgers, they all of a sudden have very deep pockets.  In the last eight months, the Dodgers have traded for a significant part of their lineup and signed some huge names for their bullpen.  Still, though, there are holes that preclude the Dodgers from being an elite team in 2013.

The star of the Dodgers' lineup is center fielder Matt Kemp, who can do it all.  He is a heck of a fielder.  He can steal a lot of bases and has speed that can be an asset to the team.  Last year, he put together a .303/.367/.538 line, showing that he can hit for both contact and power.  He is one of the top hitters in baseball, and even in a relatively down year for him, he was worth 6.579 eq. runs per nine innings per game.  In other words, a team of nine Matt Kemps would score over 6 1/2 runs per game.  While last year was a down year, his BABIP was still very high showing that he may have gotten a bit lucky.  Even so, I project him to be worth 6.157 eq. runs, still making him an elite player in this lineup.  The other centerpiece for this Dodgers' lineup is the right fielder Andre Ethier.  Ethier isn't quite as proficient as Kemp at the plate, but he can still hold his own.  His line last year was .284/.351/.460, showing that he could get on base at a very good rate and that he could do so with a significant source of power.  He was worth about 5.461 eq. runs last year, and even if he regresses a little bit as I expect him to (his BABIP was high last year), he is still worth just about 5.2 eq. runs per year.  He is not an elite hitter like Matt Kemp, but he is a very important piece to this lineup.  If the Dodgers want to be in the playoff conversation, though, Ethier needs to be better than he was last year.  He needs to become a 5.5-6.0 eq. run player.  Elite lineups have a few players worth more than 5.5 eq. runs, and the Dodgers only have Kemp.

The Dodgers' starting lineup this year looks a bit different from the lineup from most of the year last year.  One piece that was around for around half of the year last year that will return is shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who the Dodgers acquired from the Miami Marlins.  Hanley Ramirez was once one of the top hitters in the game at a position that is usually dominated by defensive specialists.  He is no longer at that level, but he put together a respectable .257/.322/.437 year last year.  He still has some power and he can get on base at an average rate.  He is expected to improve some this year from last year, when his BABIP was below average.  He was worth 4.702 eq. runs last year, and he is projected to be worth 5.075 eq. runs this year.  Two other pieces that will return for the Dodgers after mid-season trades last year are the pieces they received from the Red Sox, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and left fielder Carl Crawford.  Adrian Gonzalez is used to playing in huge baseball parks, as he began his career with the San Diego Padres.  He can hit for a lot of power, and despite having a .463 slug % last year, it was still a down power year for him.  However, his BABIP was still quite high last year, so he is not expected to improve from last year.  Last year, he was worth about 5.362 eq. runs and even with some regression, he is still expected to be worth 5.164 eq. runs this year.  That makes him a good hitter, but far from the great hitter he once was.  Carl Crawford was once a great top of the order hitter with the Tampa Bay Rays.  In free agency, he signed with the Boston Red Sox, where he seemed to fold under the additional pressure.  He suffered a major injury last year, limiting him even more.  The Dodgers are hoping he can thrive with a change in scenery.  He was able to put together an okay line in the last two years of .260/.292/.419, but those numbers are nowhere near where they were when he was in Tampa Bay.  He is no longer a top of the order type hitter, as evidenced with a .292 OBP, but with the power he has, he still can provide some value to a lineup.

The rest of the lineup returns for the Dodgers.  One of the pleasant surprises for the Dodgers was young catcher A.J. Ellis, who turned in a .270/.373/.414 line last year.  With an OBP in the .370s, he should be a prime candidate for the top of the order, but it is unexpected for a slower catcher to be the top hitter in the lineup.  He did seem to get a bit lucky last year, and he was worth 5.419 eq. runs last year.  He was one of the most valuable hitters in the Dodgers' lineup last year.  However, he is expected to regress, though even with the regression, he will be a valuable piece in the Dodgers' lineup.  The Dodgers will also return another Ellis, second baseman Mark Ellis, to the lineup.  Ellis is a contact hitter who does not have much power, putting together a line of .258/.333/.364 last year.  Even with this lack of power, Mark Ellis was still worth about 4.211 eq. runs last year, and even with a little regression, he is expected to be worth over 4 runs this year.  If he was expected to be a rock in this lineup, that wouldn't work.  However, as a supporting member of the lineup, he is still solid.  The starting third baseman for much of the year for the Dodgers last year was veteran Juan Uribe.  However, he struggled mightily and put together a .191/.258/.284 line.  That is pitiful for an everyday player, especially for a third baseman.  He was replaced by unproved journeyman Luis Cruz, and Cruz played very well last year.  Before last year, he hit much like a utility infielder, but he put together a solid .297/.322/.431 line last year.  If he really found something and became a plus hitter in this lineup, he will be a valuable part.  In all reality, it is unlikely he is just a middling utility infielder, but he is not a .700+ OPS player either.  If the Dodgers find themselves in contention, they will be looking for better options at third base.

The Dodgers have a bit of a deep bench, made up of catcher Tim Federowicz, infielders Nick Punto and Juan Uribe, and utility players Skip Schumaker and Jerry Hairston, Jr.  Skip Schumaker is expected to begin the year as the left fielder for the Dodgers, since Carl Crawford is expected to start the year on the injured list.  Schumaker has put together a few solid years a a part time starter playing anywhere from the outfield to second base for the Cardinals, and he put together a .276/.339/.368 line last year.  He hits for very little power, but can get on base at a reasonable clip.  He is not somebody that a team like the Dodgers would want to play every day, but as a top bench player, Schumaker could thrive and provide value for the Dodgers.  Veteran Jerry Hairston, Jr. is probably no longer an everyday player, but he can provide some insurance for the Dodgers.  He can play third base, and that is important since Luis Cruz has not really been proven as an everyday player.  If Carl Crawford is out for an extended period of time, Hairston could also play some left field.  He put together a respectable line of .273/.342/.387 last year, showing that he has some power, but that the real asset he provides is the ability to get on base.  He is always a plus player to have on the bench.

The Dodgers' biggest moves in the last few months, though, have been in the pitching rotation.  The ace of the staff will remain Clayton Kershaw, the former Cy Young winner.  Kershaw struck out over a quarter (25.4%) of the batters he faced, and he didn't walk all that many (7.0%).  He is an average contact pitcher, getting about 0.90 GB for every FB.  This makes him a solid pitcher who is expected to give up about 3.41 eq. runs per nine innings.  Still, though, he doesn't have the lowest expected eq. runs against in 2013 in this rotation.  This title belongs to free agent pickup and former Brewer and Angel Zack Greinke.  He is like Clayton Kershaw in many ways.  He is a former Cy Young winner.  He struck out 23.0% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 6.2%.  He is a slightly better contact pitcher, giving up 1.01 GB for every FB, and that makes him about a 3.29 eq. run player in 2013.  There aren't many 1-2 punches in the Majors than Kershaw-Greinke.  The other returning starter for the Dodgers will be Chad Billingsly, who is also a similar pitcher to Kershaw and Greinke.  He is much closer to average as a strikeout pitcher (20.2%), but he walks very few as well (7.1%).  He is also an average contact pitcher (0.86 GB / FB ratio), making him an overall fairly average pitcher.  He is expected to give up about 3.90 runs per nine innings, and that is fairly good as a middle of the rotation starter.

The Dodgers will return a player from a very short stint with the team last year.  This would be Josh Beckett, who was involved in the trade that also brought Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers.  Beckett is less of a strikeout pitcher than his rotation-mates (18.1%), but the rest of his stats are line with the rest of the rotation.  He walked about 7.1% of the batters he faced last year, which is right along the same lines as Kershaw and Billingsly.  He is an average contact pitcher as well (0.76 GB / FB ratio), so he is expected to be about a 4.19 eq. run against player.  That is reasonably good for a middle of the rotation starter.  Closing out the Dodgers' rotation will be Korean baseball phenom Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Whenever a player is signed from another country, it is hard to translate stats, but generally, the Korean Baseball Organization is likely equivalent to AA ball in the United States.  He struck out about 24.7% of the batters he faced and walked about 6.0% of the batters he faced last year, but I put about a 1.3x adjuster in those stats.  In doing that, he is expected to give up about 4.04 eq. runs last year.  In all reality, it is impossible to know what he's really worth.  He could be like Hideo Nomo and put up Cy Young numbers or be closer to former Yankee Kei Igawa, who never seemed to transition to the Major Leagues.

The Dodgers had some trouble with their bullpen last year, and this year is not expected to be much better.  Brandon League is expected to be the closer for the Dodgers this year.  He doesn't strike out many batters (17.9%), but he manages to walk 11%, making him a below average pitcher.  He is a decent contact pitcher, getting about 1.01 ground balls for every fly ball last year, but even so, he is expected to give up about 4.83 runs per nine innings this year.  That is not acceptable for a pitcher, especially a closer.  Perhaps a better option would be Kenley Jansen.  He is a very good strikeout pitcher (39.3% last year), but his walk numbers aren't that bad (8.7% last year).  When you strike out 39.3% of the batters you face and walk 8.7%, only 52% of the batters you face result in contact.  Even so, Jansen's big downfall is his GB / FB ratio, which is at 0.49.  That takes him from being an elite reliever to simply a good reliever.  On the other end of things is pitcher Ronald Belisario.  Belisario strikes out his fair share of batters (24.1%), but he also walks too many (10.1%).  His big asset, though, is his contact pitching.  Last year, he got 1.86 ground balls for every fly ball, meaning that he doesn't give up many big hits.  Jansen and Belisario are good relievers and League is well below average, making the end of the bullpen slightly below average.  The rest of the bullpen, which includes former starters Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang are expected to get a lot of innings this year too due to injuries to the pitching staff.  Aaron Harang, in particular, really hurts this staff, getting only a 16.7% strikeout rate and a whopping 10.8% walk rate.  That is simply unacceptable for a pitcher in the Majors, but especially one who is expected to have a big impact on a good team.

The Dodgers have an average to good lineup, a good (albeit unpredictable) rotation, and a below average bullpen.  To be honest, I did not expect them to be this low in my predictions, but there are weaknesses on this team.  Outside of Kemp, there are no can't-miss hitters in the lineup.  Ethier, Ramirez, and A.J. Ellis are very nice pieces, but Kemp will still shoulder way more than his share of the load.  Greinke and Kershaw are expected to anchor this rotation, which will be better than average in the league, but most leads will not be safe with Brandon League closing out games.  Because of all of this, the Dodgers are only expected to finish second in the NL West with an 80-82 record.  If Ryu turns out well and League is taken out of high leverage roles, they could be much better.  If the many good players on this team react negatively to being paid a significant amount and egos take over, the Dodgers could turn out to be the 2013 version of the 2012 Miami Marlins.  They are truly unpredictable.

2013 MLB Projections - 9th in the League

This is a continuing series containing projections for the 2013 Major League baseball season.  I've gone through the bottom 6 teams in each league and already not only gone through a playoff team, I already claimed that the World Series champions (San Francisco Giants) will finish as a bottom six team in the National League.  Will any other surprises arise when going through the ninth best team in each league?

  

9. Baltimore Orioles

And here is the first playoff team from the American League last year to appear on these projections.  The Baltimore Orioles shocked the baseball world last year by competing all year in the ultra-competitive American League East and ended up just short of the Yankees for the division lead but won one of the wild cards.  They shocked the baseball world again by beating the two-time American League champion Texas Rangers in the one-game wild card playoff last year.  However, they seemed to get quite lucky last year.  The lineup overachieved, and the pitching staff exceeded all expectations.  While I won't say it's impossible for them to repeat, it should not be expected.

The Orioles' offense is led by two outfielders.  The starting right fielder is the perennially underrated Nick Markakis.  Markakis is not a well known hitter since he plays for Baltimore, but he always seems to produce.  Last year, he put together a line of .298/.363/.471, showing that even with the little bit of power he is known for, he also got on base at an amazing clip.  He had the highest on-base percentage of anybody in the Orioles' lineup, and he did it with a lower than career average BABIP.  He would actually be a decent option to lead off for the Orioles given they have other good power hitters with less of a contact hitting talent than Markakis.  One of those players is Adam Jones, the starting center fielder.  Jones is one of the top young hitters in the game, and last year he seemed to put all of his potential together.  He hit at a .287/.334/.505 clip, which shows he can hit for good contact but very good power.  He does this all while being a solid defensive center fielder, making him a very valuable player.  Last year, he had a 5.614 eq. run statistic, a very solid amount.  Even if he regresses as I expect him to, he is still expected to have a 5.571 eq. run statistic.

Another relatively unknown slugger on this Orioles' team is the starting first baseman, Chris Davis.  He is a hitter very similar to Adam Jones, putting together a .270/.326/.501 line and 5.427 eq. runs per nine innings.  He has a ton of power but can also hit for good contact, making him a solid option for the top or middle of the order.  He is expected to regress some this year, but he is still expected to hit for about 5.3 eq. runs in 2013.  One of the most heralded prospects in recent history has been Orioles' starting catcher Matt Wieters.  Wieters has become an above average catcher, but he still has the potential to do more.  Last year, in what could be considered an unlucky year, Wieters hit for a .249/.329/.435 line.  That is good for 4.809 eq. runs, a very good amount.  However, I am expecting him to hit for more this year and move that statistic above 5.000 eq. runs.  If he can do that, he would provide a significant bat to this lineup that already has a lot of good bats.

The rest of the Orioles' infield consists of some relatively well known players and a highly regarded prospect.  Coming off a bad injury that cut his 2012 season short and gave him a .210/.261/.288 line in the last two years, Brian Roberts comes back to man second base.  Roberts is a face of the franchise in that he played with the team for many bad years.  Now that the team is good again, he is now the leader.  However, there may be a short leash for him in the lineup.  He needs to improve on that line from the last two years, which is good for 2.302 eq. runs, to stay in the starting lineup.  He is expected to hit for about 3.223 eq. runs, which may still be good enough given that the lineup is still rather young and could use some leadership.  Another veteran returns for the Orioles at shortstop: J.J. Hardy.  Hardy has had some flashes with the Orioles, but is still far from the player he was as an all-star with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Last year, he put together a .238/.282/.389 line.  He has some power, but it's really hard to consider a player who gets on base less than 30% of the time a significant part of the lineup.  And he only got on base 28.2% of the time.  Hardy does need to make an improvement because there is a top prospect looking down his back to take over the shortstop role.  At the moment, though Manny Machado is expected to start the year at third base for the Orioles.  In limited time last year, Machado hit at a .262/.294/.445 clip.  He can get on base at a better rate than Hardy and he hits for more power than Hardy.  He can be expected to improve in the coming years and may eventually be one of the best shortstops or third basemen in the game.  At this moment though, he is a supporting role player for the Orioles.

The rest of the lineup will consist of a platoon in left field and Wilson Betemit at designated hitter.  Betemit has some power and can get on base at a decent rate, as shown by his .261/.322/.422 line.  He is not a world beater, but he is a good role player for this Orioles team and he played a big role in the Orioles' playoff run last year.  His fielding is not good, but he also has experience on the infield at third base, so in a pinch, he could take over at third and Machado could take over at second or shortstop if Roberts or Hardy struggle significantly this year.  Closing out the lineup will be a platoon of Nate McLouth and Nolan Reimold in left field.  Nate McLouth was once seen as a top outfielder with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he has fallen considerably since he got traded to the Atlanta Braves and subsequently moved on to the Baltimore Orioles.  He had a passable year last year, hitting .241/.314/.380, but the Orioles would probably prefer a little more pop in their left fielder.  Reimold can provide some of that pop, after putting together a .260/.329/.488 line last year.  Nate McLouth has significantly better numbers against right handers and Nolan Reimold is better against southpaws, so these two make good platoon-mates in left field.

Besides the non-starter in the McLouth/Reimold platoon, the Orioles' bench consists of catcher Taylor Teagarden, infielder Danny Valencia, and infielder Alexi Casilla.  Teagarden is essentially a deep backup behind a very young and talented starter and is not expected to get much playing time.  Valencia was dropped by the Minnesota Twins last year and is now involved with the PED scandal this offseason.  The only player in this group expected to make much of a difference is Casilla, and even he struggled mightily with the Twins last year, hitting .241/.282/.321 last year.  Despite that, he was known as a high-potential player not too long ago, and with Hardy and Roberts struggling a bit in the last few years, Casilla provides a safety net for the Orioles.

The Orioles' lineup is what got them to the playoffs last year.  Their pitching staff didn't get in the way, but is far from being great.  It didn't get any better in the off-season after they lose Joe Saunders to free agency.  That leaves Jason Hammel as the number one pitcher in the Orioles' rotation.  He has the highest strikeout rate of anybody in the rotation (22.9%), but he also had the highest walk rate of anybody in this Orioles' rotation last year (8.5%).  One saving grace is that he is able to get ground balls at a 1.14 GB / FB rate, so he can provide value as a contact pitcher.  His 3.68 expected eq. runs against is decent, but that does not make him a true ace.  The next pitcher in line for the Orioles returns to the Orioles after a surprisingly good year last year.  Wei-Yin Chen is a less flashy pitcher than Hammel, as shown by his lower strikeout rate (18.8%).  He certainly doesn't walk all that many hitters either (7%), but his contact pitching makes him a below average middle of the rotation starter, with a 0.59 GB / FB ratio.  He is expected to give up about 4.32 eq. runs per nine innings, which is to be expected of a middle of the rotation starter for an average team.  Chris Tillman also returns for the Orioles after putting together a spectacular 9-3 record with a 2.93 ERA last year.  Is he really that good?  Well, he strikes out a fair share of batters (19% last year) and doesn't walk all that many batters (6.9%), but he struggles even more than Chen at contact pitching, giving up a 0.54 GB / FB raito.  He is very similar to Chen in his pitching style, and is expected to give up essentially the same number of runs, 4.34, per nine innings.

The rest of the Orioles' rotation is weak, to put it nicely.  Miguel Gonzalez returns after a solid year that saw him pitch to the tune of a 9-4 record and a 3.25 ERA.  Again, those stats include a ton of luck and I do not expect him to come near that this year.  He strikes out fewer batters than Chen and Tillman (17.7%) while walking more (8.1%) and has a very similar ground ball rate (0.56).  If Chen and Tillman are average middle of the rotation starters on an average team, Gonzalez is far below that.  Most teams do not want a 4.70 ERA player on their team, but Gonzalez is expected to give up 4.7 runs per 9 innings this year.  It could be worse though.  He could be the expected fifth starter for the Orioles, Jair Jurrjens.  Jurrjens was once an all star pitcher for the Braves, but even when he was, any good sabermatician could see he was overachieving.  Last year, he walked (7.9%) nearly as many batters as he struck out (8.4%) and did this all while giving up a ton of fly balls (0.63 GB / FB ratio).  He is expected to give up about 5.32 runs per nine innings, and the only reason that it isn't more is that walks play a bigger role than anything in determining a pitchers' worth.  His walk percentage is average, but his walk:strikeout ratio is way too high for a Major League pitcher.  He is probably best used as a mop up reliever or a starter in AAA.

The Orioles do not fall into the trap of using a flashy player as the closer.  Rather, they use a reliable, low-walk reliever, Jim Johnson, as their closer.  Last year, he struck out only 15.2% of the batters he faced, but did so while only walking 5.6% of the batters he faced.  He also gets a lot of ground balls, with a 1.80 GB / FB ratio.  I applaud the Orioles for doing this; they have flashier pitchers in their bullpen who strike out a ton more but walk more. Most teams would probably use their set-up man, Pedro Strop, as their closer.  Strop strikes out more than Jim Johnson (20.5%) but his high walk percentage (13.1%) negates his strikeout percentage.  However, when he does get the opposing player to hit the ball, he gets ground balls 1.77 times for every fly ball he gives up, making him a very good contact pitcher.  Given all of this, Johnson can be expected to give up 2.81 runs per nine innings and Strop can be expected to give up 4.20 runs per nine innings, a significant difference.  Another intriguing reliever for the Orioles is Darren O'Day.  Darren O'Day is weak as a contact pitcher (0.53 GB / FB), but as a strikeout and walk pitcher, he is even better than Jim Johnson (26.2% K %, 5.3% BB %).  O'Day does have a higher expected eq. runs against stat than Johnson because of his weakness as a contact pitcher, though, as he is expected to give up 3.4 runs per nine innings.  That is not a bad amount, but Johnson is clearly the best pitcher in this bullpen.

The Orioles have a lot of talent in their lineup, and that talent could help them contend for another playoff run this year.  However, a big part of the Orioles playoff run came from the extreme luck the rotation gave them last year.  Their rotation has well below average peripherals, but many of them had ERAs well below 4.00 this year.  It is unrealistic to think they can repeat this.  In this ultra-competitive division, the Orioles are expected to finish last.  They will do so, though, with a respectable 77-85 record.  If I told you last year the Orioles would finish 77-85, many fans would likely have been happy with that.  This year, though, it will be a huge disappointment.

9. Colorado Rockies

If there was any team that is like the Orioles in the National League, it would likely be the Colorado Rockies.  They have a very good lineup (although most lineups would be very good a mile above sea level) but a very bad pitching staff (most pitching staffs would be bad a mile above sea level, though).  However, unlike the Orioles, the baseball gods did not smile on the Rockies' pitching staff last year, and they finished last in the National League West last year.  Can the Rockies improve enough to become a playoff contender this year?

When talking about the Rockies' starting lineup, the conversation will probably start with shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulowitzki is a good source of power in the Rockies' lineup, but also gets on base at a decent clip.  Even in a disappointing (for him) season last year, Tulowitzki hit at a .287/.360/.486 clip.  However, he can be expected to be even better than that, given his career statistics.  He is expected to be a 6.354 eq. run player in 2013, making him one of the top hitters in baseball.  And he does this at one of the toughest defensive positions to play, shortstop.  He is an elite baseball player.  Another top-flight hitter returning to the Rockies' lineup is left fielder Carlos Gonzalez.  Gonzalez put together a spectacular year last year that saw him hit .303/.371/.510.  Gonzalez probably has more power than anybody else in this lineup, making him an excellent choice to be a cleanup hitter.  However, most probably wouldn't guess his OBP is that high.  He is a very underrated hitter, though I expect him to regress a bit next year (from being a 6.353 eq. run player to being a 5.952 eq. run player).

The rest of the Rockies' outfield is nothing to scoff at either.  Returning to play center field is Dexter Fowler, who, out of all of the solid hitters in this Rockies' lineup, returns with the highest OBP.  Last year, he hit .300/.389/.474, which would make him another 6+ eq. run player (6.353 eq. runs).  However, it is foolish to think he can keep that up; his BABIP last year was an out-of-this-world .390.  Even the best hitters in the game can only maintain a BABIP in the .330 range, so I expect him to fall down to a 5.463 eq. run player.  Still, even a 5.463 eq. run player is a solid player who can play a significant role in even a very good offense.  He is the best leadoff option on this team as he can get on base for the better power hitters (Tulowitzki and Gonzalez) to hit him in.  The right fielder for the Rockies is Michael Cuddyer.  Unlike Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, and Fowler, Cuddyer isn't especially good at getting on base, though it's not a terrible weakness either.  He is more of a straight up power hitter, putting together a .260/.317/.489 line last year.  He would make a solid middle of the lineup hitter, where he could bring in the players above him who are better at getting on base.  He had a lower than career average BABIP last year, and I'm expecting him to increase from a 5.140 eq. run player (which is still very good) to being a 5.405 eq. run player in 2013.

Even with the four players above leading the team in offense, the Rockies still had two other 5.4+ eq. run players last year.  One was spectacular rookie catcher Wilin Rosario.  Rosario took over the starting catcher position from Ramon Hernandez and became one of the better hitting catchers in the game.  He hit .270/.312/.530 last year, showing he is a Michael Cuddyer-type hitter in that he doesn't get on base much more than average, but he has huge power.  A positive thing for the Rockies is that Rosario was a rookie last year and could still improve with more time in the Majors.  The other 5.4 eq. run player for the Rockies last year was third baseman Chris Nelson, who is a solid all around hitter, hitting .301/.352/.458 line last year.  Like the rest of the hitters in this lineup, Nelson's stats are heavily influenced by playing half of his games in the high altitude, but his statistics were very good.  A .352 OBP is above average and he did it with a lot of power.  If he can contribute that again in 2013, he will help make this very good lineup potentially great.

I've gotten through the top six hitters in this lineup and I haven't even mentioned the face of this Rockies franchise yet.  Much like the Orioles, the Rockies have a face of the franchise too, who is a bit over the hill but can contribute.  The Rockies' is Todd Helton, the starting first baseman.  Once one of the strongest power hitters in the game, Helton put together a solid OBP last year, hitting .238/.343/.400.  His power has fallen considerably, but a .343 OBP is nothing to scoff at, and even though most first basemen in the majors hit for huge power, Helton's offense is still a net plus for tis Rockies' team.  Plus, his BABIP was exceptionally low last year, .260.  His career BABIP is .333, so I'm projecting him to go from being a 4.724 eq. run player in 2012 to a 5.631 eq. run player in 2013.  Ending out the Rockies' lineup is no slouch either, it's second baseman Josh Rutledge.  He is probably the weakest hitter in this lineup, but most teams would be happy with him at second base, where he put together a .274/.306/.469 line last year.  That is good for 4.738 eq. runs, which is above the league average.  Now, it's hard to compare the Rockies' lineup to anyone else because of the offensive advantages playing in Colorado, but the lowest eq. run statistic for this team last year was Helton's 4.724.  This team has a very good starting lineup.

The Rockies even have some solid players on the bench, which is expected to be made up of catcher Ramon Hernandez, utility player Jordan Pacheco, and outfielders Tyler Colvin, Reid Brignac, and Eric Young, Jr.  Tyler Colvin put together a .290/.327/.531 line last year, showing he can hit for at least average contact and above average power.  In a less crowded outfield, Colvin would be an everyday player; however, he is blocked by Cuddyer, Gonzalez, and Fowler in Colorado.  Likewise, Eric Young, Jr. put together a solid year last year with a .316/.377/.448 line.  He doesn't have the power of Colvin, but he gets on base at a spectacular rate.  On most teams, he would not only be an everyday player, but he would contend for the leadoff role.  On this Rockies team, he is probably the fifth outfielder, but a solid bat off the bench at that.

The Rockies have a very good lineup, but they are precluded from competing because of their weak pitching staff.  In most ballparks, this pitching rotation would struggle mightily, but in Colorado, their chances of competing are much worse.  The so-called number one pitcher in this staff is Jorge de la Rosa, who is coming off a major injury that saw him sidelined most of 2012.  In 2011 and 2012, de la Rosa had problems with control where he walked 8.1% of the batters he faced.  He made up for some of that with a 19.5% strikeout percentage, but he is not a very good contact pitcher (0.70 GB / FB ratio).  He is expected to give up about 4.39 runs per nine innings in 2013.  For a bottom of the rotation starter, that is acceptable.  For a top pitcher in the pitching staff, that is devastating.  Also returning for the Rockies is Jhoulys Chacin.  There isn't anything particularly wrong with a strikeout percentage of 14.3% like Chacin's was last year. His real issue, though, is that he walks nearly as many batters (10.2%) without being a good contact pitcher (0.63).  His expected eq. runs against per nine innings in 2013 is 5.39, which means he would probably be better in the bullpen or in AAA than as a starting pitcher on a Major League club.  And he is expected to be the number two pitcher for the Rockies.  Oof.  One of the more recognized names in the Rockies' rotation, though, may be a bit of a saving grace.  This would be Jeff Francis, who doesn't strike out many batters (15.1%) but he rarely walks anybody (4.4%) and he gets a lot of ground balls (1.0 GB / FB ratio) when he pitches to contact.  He could be the best pitcher in this rotation (3.52 exp. eq. runs per nine innings), but the team sees him as a middle to lower rotation starter.  His 5.58 ERA last season is offputting, though.

One of the younger, higher ceiling pitchers in this pitching staff is Drew Pomeranz, who the Rockies received in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade in 2011.  Pomeranz throws a lot of strikeouts (19.1%), but he throws too many walks (10.6%) to be considered a good pitcher.  His GB / FB ratio last year was average (0.75), so he is probably a #5 pitcher on an average team.  His expected runs per nine innings was 4.96 last year, and that needs to be improved if Pomeranz is going to be a solid Major League pitcher.  Also returning after limited Major League time last year is Juan Nicasio.  He strikes out more than Pomeranz (21%) and walks fewer than Pomeranz (8.6%), so at this point in his career, Nicasio is probably a better pitcher than Pomeranz.  His ceiling likely isn't as high, though, and Nicasio will probably be a bottom of the rotation starter for most of his career.  His stats would indicate that he should give up about 4.47 runs per nine innings, which is probably what is expected from a bottom of the rotation starter.

Unlike the starting pitching staff, however, the Rockies have some serious talent in the bullpen right now.  All three of their top relievers get strikeouts while rarely walking anyone.  Rafael Betancourt is expected to start the year as a closer.  He is not a good contact pitcher (0.55 GB / FB ratio) but he strikes out a lot of batters (24.2%) while walking very few (5.1%).  He is expected to give up about 3.49 runs per nine innings, which is probably about average for a closer.  Also returning to the Rockies' bullpen is former starter Matt Belisle.  He walks about the same number of batters as Betancourt (5.2%) while striking out less (19.8%).  However, as a contact pitcher, he is far superior to Betancourt (1.02 GB / FB), which is so important in a stadium like Colorado's.  He is expected to give up about 3.30 runs per nine innings, making him a solid bullpen option.  Probably the best bullpen pitcher for the Rockies, though, is former Astro Wilton Lopez.  For some reason, the Astros never saw him as a solid bullpen option.  However, he strikes out 20.8% of the batters he faces while walking an astonishingly low 3.1% and getting 1.22 GB for every FB.  This makes him a 2.50 eq. run against pitcher, which is spectacular.  It will be interesting to see how his work translates to Coors Field, but if he can keep up these three ratios relatively well, Lopez could be one of the top relievers in the game.

The Rockies are expected to have a good offense and a pitching staff that struggles given the high altitude they play in.  They do.  They are expected to have the third best offense in the National League, but the worst pitching staff in the Majors.  That is to be expected since they not only play in Colorado, but also because their pitching staff is fairly weak overall.  Their bullpen saves them a little bit, but the rotation will be a big downer for this club.  They are expected to finish third in the National League West this year with a 79-83 record. 

2013 MLB Projections - 10th in the League

This is a continuing series of posts that go over my baseball projections for the 2013 MLB season.  We finished up the bottom third of each league yesterday and now we will continue on to the middle of the road teams in each league.  Today, I will go over the teams projected to finish with the 10th best records in the league.  So far, the American League has seen Houston, Seattle, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Kansas City picked so far.  No real surprises there, except maybe Cleveland.  The National League has seen Miami, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Pittsburgh, and San Diego been picked in the bottom third.  No real surprises there, except maybe Pittsburgh.  This is where we may start to see some surprises.

10. Chicago White Sox

One of the more frustrating teams to pick on a year to year basis, the Chicago White Sox consistently seem to be in contention for most of the year, only to see their team finish with a record around .500.  In a relatively weak American League Central, the Chicago White Sox could continue to contend, but it will be an uphill battle for them.

The face of the franchise ever since Frank Thomas left the White Sox is starting first baseman Paul Konerko.  He is getting older (and considering the fact he was considered for the White Sox manager job last year, the team seems to think he is getting wiser), but he certainly can still hit for power and get on base at a very good clip.  Last year, he hit to a .298/.371/.486 clip, not looking like a player who is going to hang up his cleats anytime soon.  Those numbers give him a 6.101 eq. run statistic, highest on the team last year.  Even if he regresses some (as I am projecting he will), he will be amongst the team's leaders in eq. runs and will continue to be a valuable member to this lineup.  After having a spectacularly disappointing season in 2011 (.159/.292/.277), designated hitter Adam Dunn returned nicely last year.  He is not known for being a high batting average player (.204 last year), but his OBP was a healthy .333 last year.  He found power again and saw his slug % nearly double to .468.  It is also encouraging that Dunn did this with an extremely low .246 BABIP last year.  It is unlikely that he will bring that up to a league average .290-.300 BABIP again, but it would seem that his .240s BABIPs the last two years are out of the norm.  He could very well bring it up above .300 again, but even if he could improve it to .270-.280, he could become that much more valuable to this White Sox lineup.

Also returning to the White Sox lineup is right fielder Alex Rios, who put together a solid .304/.334/.516.  Despite having an OBP very similar to Dunn's last year, he did it more by getting hits (as shown by his .304 BA last year) than by getting walks.  He hit for significant power last year as well, as shown by his .516 Slug %.  It is unlikely that he can repeat those stats, but even a decent sized regression would make him a solid 5.4-5.5 eq. run player, making him a solid top or middle of the lineup hitter.  A new bat to the White Sox lineup will be third baseman Jeff Keppinger, who is known more as a utility player than an everyday player.  However, he is coming off a career year with Tampa Bay last year (.325/.367/.439 line).  It is very unlikely that he could match those numbers, but he has always been respectable to the bat, and even with a very significant regression to his stats, he could still be a 5 eq. run player.  That would make him a decent addition to this lineup.

Finishing out the White Sox lineup is center fielder Alejandro de Aza and left fielder Dayan Viciedo.  De Aza will likely begin  the year as the leadoff hitter for the White Sox, and he is a decent choice for that role.  he is certainly a better contact hitter (.349 OBP) than a power hitter (.410 Slug %), and he has the highest OBP of all returning White Sox this year (Keppinger's was higher, but he was with Tampa Bay last year).  Viciedo, on the other hand, is more of a power hitter (.444 Slug %) than a contact hitter (.300 OBP).   However, his power isn't overly significant.  Viciedo can hit enough to survive as a starting outfielder in the Majors, but he is better used as a bottom of the lineup player than as a top or middle of the lineup player.

The rest of the White Sox lineup comes from defensive premium positions and it can be seen by their offensive statistics.  They are second baseman Gordon Beckham, shortstop Alexei Ramirez, and catcher Tyler Flowers.  Gordon Beckham was once seen as a top prospect in baseball, but his star has fallen considerably.  He can play defense, but his line of .234/.296/.371 is disappointing.  It is hard to justify playing  a player who can't get on base over 30% of the time on a regular basis, but his defense and potential are so high that he still gets regular playing time at second base.  It may be even tougher to keep Alexei Ramirez (.265/.287/.364) as a full time player.  A team of 9 Ramirezes is expected to score fewer than 3.4 runs per game, and he gets on base even less than Beckham.  He is best used as a utility infielder, but the White Sox will start with him at shortstop.  Rounding out the lineup is Tyler Flowers, who is going to have to replace all star catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who is with Texas now.  He actually put together some decent numbers last year in limited playing time last year (.213/.296/.412) for a catcher, but he still scores fewer than 4 eq. runs and will have to improve to even be close to replacing Pierzynski's offensive prowess.

The bench for the White Sox isn't all that deep and it consists of young catcher Hector Gimenez, infielders Conor Gillaspie and Angel Sanchez, and outfielder DeWayne Wise.  Conor Gillaspie is a pickup after the San Francisco Giants dropped him.  He had a decent line last year of .247/.298/.373, but he is correctly not used as an everyday player.  He just doesn't do enough to justify an everyday role as shown by his 3.668 eq. run statistic last year.  DeWayne Wise was once an everyday player with the White Sox, but his stats don't justify it.  Last year, he put together a .259/.293/.429 line.  With the White Sox's solid outfield, it makes sense that Wise doesn't start every day, but he still provides some pop off the bench.

The Chicago White Sox will return their entire starting rotation from last year.  The ace of the staff is Chris Sale, who has a very good underlying pitching line.  Last year, he struck out nearly a quarter (24.9%) of the batters he faced while walking only 6.6%.  As a contact pitcher, he gets an average 0.82 GB / FB ratio.  When put all together, he is expected to give up about 3.46 runs per 9 innings, making him a solid top of the rotation option for the White Sox.  Their big free agent signing was a re-signing, when they re-signed Jake Peavy in the offseason.  He doesn't strike out quite as many batters as Sale (22%) but he walks even fewer (5.6%).  If he could find a way to improve his contact pitching game (0.58 GB / FB ratio), he would be a solid top of the rotation starter.  Even so, he is a solid #2 option.

The rest of the rotation isn't quite as hot.  Gavin Floyd will return for the White Sox.  He is a decent strikeout pitcher (19.9%), but he walks too many batters (8.7%).  Some of this is offset by a good GB / FB ratio (0.89), but he is still expected to give up about 4.27 runs per nine innings.  He is a solid middle of the rotation option for the White Sox.  A less solid middle of the rotation option for the White Sox is John Danks.  He is not a strikeout pitcher (12.6% K %), and that could be ok if he didn't walk many batters.  However, his walk percentage was the highest in the White Sox rotation (9.7%) and he doesn't have an excessively good GB / FB ratio (0.78) to offset it.  He probably belongs at the bottom of the rotation or even as a long reliever as he is expected to give up 5.23 runs per nine innings.  Significant improvement will need to occur for him to contribute success to the Chicago White Sox.  Closing out the rotation is Jose Quintana, who doesn't strike out many as well (14.3%).  He doesn't walk as many, but he needs to improve in that stat as well if he wants to really contribute to the White Sox; 7.4% is still too high.  As a contact pitcher, Quintana is decent (0.92 GB / FB ratio), but he is best placed at the bottom of the White Sox's rotation.

The White Sox's bullpen is fairly weak, especially at the end of the bullpen.  Addison Reed is expected to start the year as the closer, but he is only average in both strikeout rate (22.7%) and walk rate (7.6%).  He is also well below average as a contact pitcher (0.49 GB / FB ratio), making him a pitcher who is expected to five up 4.27 runs per nine innings.  He is not an ideal closing candidate.  Perhaps a better option is Matt Thornton, who strikes out less than Reed (19.9%) but who walks many fewer batters (6.4%) and is able to pitch to contact very well (1.17 GB / FB ratio).  Because of all of this, he is expected to give up almost a whole run fewer than Reed, at 3.39 runs per nine innings.  At least it doesn't seem that the White Sox won't fall into the trap of closing with the pitcher with the best strikeout rate, Jesse Crain.  He struck out an extremely high number of batters (30.9%), but it's more than offset by his weak walk percentage (11.9%).  He is expected to give up more runs than even Reed (4.49 per 9 innings), making him a dangerous option at the end of this bullpen.

The White Sox seem to be top heavy in their lineup (Konerko, Dunn, and Rios) and in the rotation (Sale and Peavy), but they seem to fall off significantly after that.  Because of that, it is unlikely that the White Sox will be true contenders for the AL Central, though they may be able to fight for a wild card for at least part of the season.  In the end, though, I expect them to finish second in the AL Central with a 75-87 record.  Funny enough, the Twins, Royals, and White Sox are all expected to finish at 75-87; however, I put the White Sox second, the Royals third, and the Twins fourth based on pythagorean win percentage.  Minnesota was at 46.032%, Kansas City was at 46.039%, and Chicago was at 46.162%.  Still the difference is not significant.

10. San Francisco Giants

Here is the first real surprise of my projections.  The defending world champions finishing 10th in the National League?  To be honest, I'm skeptical of this projection, but there are reasons for concern for the San Francisco Giants.  The lineup consists of a few elite players but mostly players who can be considered "just guys".  The pitching staff has been considered elite for a while now, but I'm not so sure that they are.  As a matter of fact, I projected Tim Lincecum's downfall before last season.  Will he come back?  My answer is below.

However, as always, I will start with the lineup for the Giants.  It is hard to start talking about this lineup without the 2012 National League MVP, catcher Buster Posey.  Posey put together a line of .336/.408/.549 last year, making him not only a good power hitter, but also one of the best players at getting on base last year.  On top of that, he does it at the premium defensive position.  Last year, he had an eq. run statistic of 7.484 runs, which is extremely high.  His BABIP was exceptionally high though, at .368.  It is unrealistic to see him put together that high of a BABIP again in 2013.  However, even if he regresses back to around his career norm, he is still by far the most valuable player in the Giants' lineup.  He is projected to be a 6.710 eq. run player this year, making him one of the elite hitters in baseball.  The other offensive star on this team is third baseman Pablo Sandoval.  He is sometimes hard to project because he is a top hitter when in shape but struggles when he is not.  Last year, he put together a good line of .283/.342/.447, but he is capable to doing so much more.  I'm actually projecting he will improve from a 5.165 eq. run player to a 5.382 eq. run player this year, and will contribute more to the Giants' offense.

Two outfielders also contribute quite a bit of offense to this Giants lineup.  In center field, Angel Pagan had a very good year hitting .288/.338/.440.  He has some power and is able to get on base on a regular basis.  Last year, he was a 5.022 eq. run player, and even with a little regression in 2013, he is expected to be a 4.826 eq. run player.  He isn't going to be a world beater, but he does provide enough offense to be a significant part of this lineup.  Also returning is right fielder Hunter Pence, whom the Giants acquired via trade with the Phillies last season.  He had a down year by his standards last year, with a .253/.319/.425 line.  He is probably approaching the point in his career where he is past his prime, but he is still expected to improve next year and be nearly a 5 eq. run per game type player.  He is not the elite hitter he once was, but he can contribute to a lineup.

Returning to play first base is perennial prospect Brandon Belt.  Belt doesn't seem to get the treatment most prospect first basemen do, but he put together a solid .275/.360/.421 line last year, good for a 5.242 eq. run statistic.  He doesn't have the power that most first basemen do, but he is a solid on-base type player.  Outside of Posey, he had the highest OBP of anybody in the Giants' lineup and while unconventional, Belt could be a solid leadoff hitter (without much speed) for this lineup.  If he can get on base 36% of the time, Posey and Sandoval will have a lot of opportunities to bring him in.  The Giants will also return second baseman Marco Scutaro, the postseason hero for the Giants.  He had a better year than his career trajectory would indicate he should have with a .306/.348/.405 line last  year.  He doesn't have much power, but he got on base much more than he normally did before last year.  He can't be expected to put together a line like that every year, and the Giants likely overpaid for him, but he should contribute offensively pretty well.

The rest of the lineup for the Giants are weak links, in all reality.  Left fielder Gregor Blanco will return and replace former left fielder Melky Cabrera.  He was a backup outfielder from the time the Giants brought in Hunter Pence until the time Melky Cabrera was suspended for PED use, and that is probably where he belongs.  In a year where his BABIP is likely higher than it should be, he put together a line of .244/.333/.344.  His OBP is okay, but he does it with no power and will be a bottom of the order player for the Giants.  Brandon Crawford will also return and play shortstop for the Giants.  His line was even worse than Blanco's (.248/.304/.349), though most of his contributions come on defense.  He is a young player and has the potential to get better, but at this point, he is probably best suited for a backup defensive specialist shortstop role.

The Giants' bench consist of a few intriguing players and they are actually relatively deep on the bench.  It is made up of catcher Hector Sanchez, first baseman Brett Pill, infielder Tony Abreu, utility player Joaquin Arias, and outfielder Andres Torres.  Brett Pill was once considered a decent prospect, but the star and dimmed significantly for him.  Last year, he put together a line of .210/.265/.352, and that simply won't do it for a first baseman.  He will need to get on base more and show more power if he wants to remain in the picture for the Giants.  Joaquin Arias is a player who could provide some pop from shortstop, though not much.  In all reality, his line of .270/.304/.389 isn't great, but it is significantly better than Brandon Crawford's, and he does provide an option at the shortstop position if Crawford doesn't improve or regresses in 2013.  Andres Torres is the fourth outfielder, and he could compete with Blanco for the third outfielder job.  His line isn't far off from Blanco's at .230/.327/.337, and if he improves while Blanco doesn't, he has a good chance of being the everyday left fielder for the Giants.

Now we go to the part of the Giants' team that has been extremely good for the past few years, its pitching staff.  Even with a weak lineup, the Giants have been able to win the World Series twice in the last three years, and they have done it on the shoulders of this pitching staff.  However, I'm really only impressed with two of the starters: Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.  They are actually very similar pitchers in the fact that they can get strikeouts without walking many.  Cain struck out 22% of the batters he faced last year while walking only 5.8%.  Bumgarner actually struck out more (22.5%) while still walking only 5.8%.  These two pitchers have the potential to be Cy Young pitchers, and I am expecting another very good year for them.  I project Cain to give up 3.75 runs per 9 innings and Bumgarner to give up 3.34 runs per 9 innings, very good numbers for starters.  They are co-aces for this pitching staff.

The rest of this pitching staff is made up of overachievers who are probably actually average or even below average pitchers.  Yes, I said that Tim Lincecum, the two time Cy Young winner, is an average or below average pitcher.  He has a great strikeout ratio (23%), but unlike Cain and Bumgarner, he walks way too many batters (10.9% last year).  Even before the season began last year, I saw that he walked too many and gave up too many home runs to keep his Cy Young capability for long.  He is also very average as a contact pitcher, getting a 0.83 GB / FB ratio.  My projection has him as a 4.62 eq. run against pitcher, which is well below average for the #3 pitcher in a pitching staff.  Another overrated pitcher in this staff is Barry Zito, who actually had a resurgent year last year in the "popular" pitching stats.  He was 15-8 last year with a 4.15 ERA.  He no longer strikes out batters (14.3%) and he still walks too many (8.8%) while not being a great contact pitcher (0.68 GB / FB ratio).  He is expected to give up about 5 runs in the span of nine innings, which is well below average for a Major League starter.  Rounding out the pitching staff is Ryan Vogelsong, who has put together two consecutive solid years for the Giants.  He is not as bad as Zito or even Lincecum, but he still walks 7.9% of the batters he faces while only striking out 20.1%.  That's not a terrible ratio, but he should be far from an all-star pitcher, which he was in 2012.  I'd expect him to give up about 4.23 runs per nine innings, which makes him squarely an average pitcher.  So, the team has two above average pitchers, one average pitcher, one below average pitcher, and one disaster of a pitcher, making this a below average pitching staff.

The closer, though is a very reliable pitcher, Sergio Romo.  He had been the reliable set-up man for the Giants until last year, when closer Brian Wilson and Santiago Casilla struggled enough to warrant a change in closer.  Romo strikes out about 29.3% of the batters he faced last year while only walking 4.7% and getting a solid GB / FB ratio of 0.94.  Overall, I'd expect him to give up about 2.52 runs per 9 innings, making him an elite closer.  Casilla is actually not a bad pitcher, either, but he walks too many to be considered elite.  He struck out 20.2% of the batters he faced while walking 8.1%.  His saving grace is that he is a very good ground ball pitcher, with a 1.22 GB / FB ratio.  He is a very good set-up pitcher and is expected to help get the game to Romo in the ninth.  Another late inning pitcher for the Giants is Javier Lopez.  He is like a more extreme version of Casilla in that he strikes out a decent amount (18.3%), but walks even more (9.2%).  In addition, the thing making Lopez a solid pitcher is his GB / FB ratio, which is at a whopping 1.48.  He can be expected to give up about 3.8 runs per nine innings, which makes the late innings pitchers in this staff very good.  The problem will be getting to these pitchers.

The Giants are coming off a World Series championship, and the perception is that they have done it with one or two elite hitters and an elite pitching staff.  In all reality, the pitching staff outperformed its peripherals and their lineup, while not great, consists of one elite hitter (Posey) and a few very good hitters (Sandoval, Pagan, Pence).  In the end, though, the Giants simply aren't a great ballclub; they just overperformed last year and got to the World Series.  Cain and Bumgarner are expected to lead the pitching staff, but Lincecum is not expected to become a solid top line pitcher again and Zito is way past his prime.  This all makes the Giants the fourth place team in the National League West with a 77-85 record.