2013 MLB Projections - 11th in the League

This is a continuation of my series projecting how every team will do during the 2013 Major League Baseball season.  Today I am closing out the bottom third of each league.

11. Kansas City Royals

After the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Kansas City Royals are likely the most consistently pitiful franchise in baseball.  They have had a winning season in the last 20 years, but for the most part, they are bottom feeders in a weak American League Central division.  Things are looking up for this franchise, though, as a group of youngsters who the Royals picked up with excellent draft picks are starting to make their mark in the Majors.  Still, though, they are likely a few years away from being relevant.

The backbone for this Royals' lineup is their designated hitter Billy Butler.  He is an excellent contact hitter (.373 OBP) but he also has significant power (.510 slug %), making him one of the more underrated young hitters in Major League Baseball.  While it is unlikely that he can continue putting together a .313/.373/.510 line, he isn't expected to regress much in 2013.  He is expected to fall from being a 6.391 eq. run player to becoming a 6.088 eq. run player.  While he is likely the best hitter in the Royals' lineup, he is not the only good bat in this lineup.  Alex Gordon is returning and expected to start in left field for the Royals this year.  He looked like a bust a few years ago, but the Royals likely brought Gordon up too early and he could have still used some seasoning in AAA.  With more time at AAA, he was able to come back up to the Majors and succeed at a .294/.368/.455 clip.  He is expected to regress a bit more than Butler in 2013 (from 5.728 eq. runs to 5.205 eq. runs) but he is still a very good hitter in this lineup.

One of the most unknown names in the Royals lineup is catcher Salvador Perez, who put together a solid .301/.328/.471 in over 300 plate appearances last year.  The fascinating thing about Perez, though, is that he likely hasn't reached his potential yet and he was likely unlucky last year with a .299 BABIP (his career BABIP is .320).  If he can maintain that BABIP, or if he could improve on it, he could become one of the better hitting catchers in baseball.  Also returning to the Royals lineup after a disappointing year is first baseman Eric Hosmer.  His line last year was disappointing at .232/.304/.359, especially after a very good 2011 season that saw him hit .293/.334/.465.  Hosmer likely isn't as good a hitter as Butler, Gordon, or even Perez, but he is certainly a better hitter than he showed last year.  He is expected to be a hitter whose talent falls between his disappointing 2012 season and his very good 2011 season.

Another two players in this lineup are still producing after a trade involving Zack Greinke brought him to Kansas City from Milwaukee two years ago.  Returning to play shortstop is Alcides Escobar.  Escobar is seen as more of a defensive shortstop, but he is able to hit well enough to warrant a starting spot.  Last year, he put together a line of .293/.331/.390.  He is never going to be a spectacular power hitter, but his patience at the plate could still be improved.  If he can bring his OBP up closer to .350, he would be a very well-rounded shortstop.  Also returning is center fielder Lorenzo Cain.  He was involved in the same trade as Alcides Escobar, and he has many of the same traits.  He can field very well, he has significant speed, and while he can hit well enough to warrant a starting spot (.266/.316/.419 last year), he could become so much better with increased patience at the plate.

The remainder of the lineup consists of third baseman Mike Moustakas, second baseman Chris Getz, and right fielder Jeff Francoeur.  Moustakas is likely the best hitter in the group, though his low OBP severely limits the impact he makes on offense.  Last year, he put together a line of .242/.296/.412.  His OPS did exceed .700, but he needs to improve his OBP if he wants to be a solid top of the lineup hitter in the Majors.  Chris Getz is expected to start at second base but share time with youngster Johnny Giavotella.  Neither of these hitters is really expected to make much of an impact at the plate, but Getz (.275/.312/.360 line last year) is likely to provide more value on offense.  Giavotella may grow into the role in the near future, but to become an everyday fixture in the lineup, he will have to improve on his .238/.270/.304 line last year significantly.  Rounding out the lineup is a player who is statistically one of the weaker players in baseball, Jeff Francoeur.  He is likely in the starting lineup largely because of his cannon of an arm in right field.  It probably isn't because of his hitting (.235/.287/.378 last year) in a position traditionally held by good offense, poor defensive players.

Outside of Johnny Giavotella, the rest of the Royals' bench is expected to consist of catcher George Kottaras, infielder Elliot Johnson, and outfielder Jarrod Dyson.  Outside of Giavotella, the most intriguing name of this bunch is the underrated George Kottaras.  Kottaras is not one of the strongest players behind the plate, but he has an insane ability to get on base despite maintaining a low batting average.  It was really little wonder that the Athletics traded for him last year, and it was a bit surprising he was squeezed out of a role with the Athletics before this season.  He hit .211/.351/.415 last year, and could be an underrated bat off the bench who can also marginally catch.

The Royals' pitching staff is entirely different that it was last year due to free agent pickups and pickups via trade.  One of the more intriguing trades this offseason involved the Royals acquiring James Shields and Wade Davis for prospects. James Shields is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball.  He succeeds in all three major areas for pitchers; last year, he struck out 23.6% of the batters he faced while walking only 6.1%, and being a good contact pitcher who holds a 1.12 GB / FB ratio.  He goes from being a middle of the rotation starter with the Rays to becoming the true ace of the Royals' staff.  Wade Davis is expected to be a middle of the rotation starter with the Royals.  He can do everything adequately; strikes batters out at a 17.8% rate, walks batters at an 8.5% rate, and gets ground balls at a 0.60 rate.  He is below average in all of these fields, but he is young and is expected to improve over time.  The other big pickup for the Royals' pitching staff was former Los Angeles Angel Ervin Santana.  He is like Wade Davis in that he is adequate or slightly below average in all three of the major categories of pitching (17.4% K %, 8% BB %, and 0.81 GB / FB ratio).  At this point in his career, Santana is probably better suited for a bottom of the rotation type role, but he is expected to be a middle of the rotation starter for the Royals.

The Royals will return two starters, however.  Jeremy Guthrie returns and is expected to be a middle of the rotation starter and innings eater.  He does not strike out many batters (12.8%) but his walk rate (6.4%) makes up for the weak strikeout ratio.  He is an average contact pitcher (0.69 GB / FB ratio), and is expected to give up about 4.54 runs per 9 innings.  The Royals likely overpaid for him in the free agent market, but he could be a rotation saver by being able to go deep into games.  He just likely won't win a majority of them.  Also returning is Bruce Chen, who will likely be the number 5 starter for the Royals.  He is actually a very good control pitcher (5.7% BB %) but his strikeout percentage is lacking (16.9% K%).  Even worse, he is a well below average contact pitcher (0.49 GB / FB ratio), so he will likely remain a bottom of the rotation type starter for the Royals.

Royals manager Ned Yost seems to fall into the trap of putting the best strikeout pitcher in as the closer.  Greg Holland is expected to start the year as the closer for the Royals.  His strikeout percentage is very good (31.5% last year), but his very high walk percentage (11.8%) and average GB/FB ratio (0.82) make him a very errant pitcher and a dangerous choice for the end of the bullpen.  He is expected to give up about 4.16 runs per 9 innings, which is much more than a top reliever should.  A more reasonable option to close games is Kelvin Herrera, who doesn't strike out as many as Holland (22.4%), but who more than makes up for it with a 6.1% walk percentage and a 1.25 GB / FB ratio.  He isn't nearly as flashy as Holland but he is expected to give up over a full run fewer than Holland (3.02) per nine innings.  Another late inning pitcher for the Royals is Aaron Crow.  He does strike out more batters than Herrera (25%), but his higher walk percentage (8.5%) makes him less effective than Herrera.  He is also a very good contact pitcher (1.10), so a good manager should recognize he is a very good option for high leverage situations.

The Royals are a team on the rise, but they are still likely a year or two away from making a big improvement into .500 land and wild card land.  For the time being, though, the Royals will likely struggle this year though they may show some improvement from last year.  They have a talented young lineup and a decent pitching staff, but the lack of star power on offense and an effective rotation from top to bottom will hold the Royals down this year.  They are expected to finish third in the AL Central this year with a 75-87 record.

11. San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have been a struggling franchise for the past few years and it looked like they were going to be cellar dwellers again last year in the National League West.  In the second half of the year last year, it looked like the Padres may have turned a corner and become a playoff contender.  They fell off by the end of the year and weren't all that close to actually making the playoffs, but they showed some fight at the end of the year last year.  Will that fight carry over and will the Padres contend this year?

When talking about the San Diego offense, it all begins with third baseman Chase Headley, who really solidified his status as a great young hitter in the game last year.  He hit for a .286/.376/.498 line last year, which seems very good.  However, he plays half of his games at Petco Park, a notorious pitchers' ballpark, and he hit over 30 home runs.  Put him in another ballpark, and he could be expected to be a .900+ OPS player.  He is a very talented young hitter and the Padres hope he can continue to put up explosive numbers to give the Padres a spark they have been missing in the past few years.  Another potential spark for the Padres offense comes from oft-injured left fielder Carlos Quentin.  Quentin's average is slightly lower than Headley's, but other than that, his line is eerily similar to Headley's (.261/.374/.504).  When healthy, Quentin is a second excellent hitter in this Padres' lineup, but staying healthy is not something Quentin has excelled at in past years.  Last year, he only had 340 plate appearances and he will need to be a full-time player for the Padres' lineup to see a vast improvement.

One of the surprising young players in the Padres' lineup last year was catcher Yasmani Grandal, who became a top of the lineup hitter with a .297/.394/.469 line last year.  He looked like a surprising young player for the Padres who could be a valuable hitter in this lineup in the upcoming year.  However, a lot of that promise fell off when Grandal was caught with a failed drug test and he will begin the 2013 season serving a 50 game suspension.  It is unclear how much the PEDs helped, but he is still likely going to be a solid contributor for the Padres once he is in full swing with the Padres this year.  Another young contributor in this Padres' lineup is first baseman Yonder Alonso.  Alonso put together a .273/.348/.393 in his rookie year last year, and is expected to be another power bat in a potentially dangerous Padres' lineup this year.  Again, his numbers likely aren't as good as they could be on other teams because he plays half his games at Petco Park, but he is likely to become a solid middle of the lineup contributor for this Padres team.

A somewhat underrated piece of the Padres' starting lineup can be found in right field, Will Venable.  He is not an overpowering player, but he put together a solid line of .264/.335/.429 last year.  He may not be able to recreate those stats, but Venable is still expected to be a solid bat in the middle of the lineup for the Padres.  A few years ago, a player like Venable would be one of the biggest contributors in the lineup.  However, the Padres' lineup has significantly more potential this year and Venable is a supporting player in the starting lineup.  The last member of the Padres' lineup this year is centerfielder Cameron Maybin.  Once one of the most promising prospects in baseball, Maybin has a bit of a disappointment and is likely still getting chances to be an everyday player because of his former potential.  In all reality, his line last year (.243/.306/.349) screams backup outfielder more than starter.  He has not hit for much power and has trouble getting on base.  He may have a hard time continuing to start in center field for the Padres if he continues to put up those numbers.

Finishing up the lineup will be two light hitting infielders.  Logan Forsythe returns and will start the year as the starting second baseman for the Padres.  He put together a .701 OPS last year (.273/.343/.390), and he has done that with little power.  He is good at getting on base, and since he can do that at a position where defensive ability is at a premium, Forsythe is secure in the starting lineup.  The shortstop, Everth Cabrera, also seems safe in the starting lineup, although his case is much less impressive than Forsythe's.  Last year, he put together a line of .246/.324/.324, and was consistently the leadoff hitter for the Padres.  This just shows the folly of putting a speedy guy at the top of the order.  His OBP wasn't terrible, but there are many better options as leadoff hitter for the Padres, including Logan Forsythe and Will Venable.

Once Yasmani Grandal is back with the Padres, the bench will consist of catcher Nick Hundley, outfielder Mark Kotsay, utility players Jesus Guzman and Alexi Amarista, and outfielder Chris Denorfia.  Hundley will see his role expand for the first 50 games this season, as he will be the starting catcher to begin the year.  However, he has not had success in this role in the past.  He is coming off an injury, but even before the injury, he put together a pitiful .157/.219/.245 line last year, which is good for a mere 1.285 eq. runs.  He will need to improve those numbers if he wants to remain on the Padres, and he will need to significantly improve those numbers if he wants to remain the starter for the first 50 games of the year this year.  Chris Denorfia is a solid bench bat, and he may share time in the outfield with Cameron Maybin this year.  Last year, he put together a line of .293/.345/.451, which is good for 5.260 eq. runs.  If he can keep that up, it will be very difficult to keep him out of the starting lineup.

The San Diego Padres' weakpoint is undoubtedly its pitching staff, which has a lot of players who simply aren't that good or players who were good 10 years ago.  The number one pitcher in the pitching staff will be Edinson Volquez, whom the Padres received in the trade sending Mat Latos to the Reds last year. Volquez has been extremely erratic, once being a top pitcher in the game and following that up by falling back down to the minor leagues.  Last year, he had a decent season, but his underlying stats show a different story.  He strikes out a decent number of batters (21.7%), but his walk rate is way too high for him to be effective (13.1%).  Despite a good GB / FB rate (1.04), he is expected to give up about 5.00 runs per 9 innings, way too many for any pitcher, especially a so-called number one pitcher.  The Padres will also return innings eater Clayton Richard.  Richard is pretty much the opposite of Volquez; he does not strike out many batters at all (11.8%), but he rarely walks batters (4.6%).  This makes his contact pitching more important and his 1.15 GB / FB ratio makes him a decent contact pitcher.  He is likely the best pitcher in the Padres' rotation.  Also returning to the Padres' pitching staff is Eric Stults.  Stults is very similar to Richard with strikeouts (13.3%) and walks (6.5%), but his contact pitching (0.68 GB / FB ratio) is not at Richard's level.  He will remain in the middle of the rotation, but his expected eq. runs against is about 4.54, which is not very good.

The rest of the Padres' rotation consists of players who were once elite pitchers in the early 2000s.  Jason Marquis will return to the Padres' rotation.  He has never been an overly overpowering pitcher, and last year was no exception.  He only struck out 16.2% of the batters he faced, and he gave up an average number of walks (7.5%).  He depends a lot on his contact pitching, and his 1.11 GB / FB ratio shows that he can still pitch at a decent level.  Rounding out the Padres' rotation will be Freddy Garcia, another pitcher who reached his peak in the early 2000s.  Garcia was once a more overpowering pitcher and he can still strike out his share of batters (19.3% last year), but, like Marquis, he is an average control pitcher (7.6% last year).  He does need to depend on strikeouts, though, since his GB / FB ratio is below average (0.68).

The closer for the Padres is expected to be Huston Street.  He is probably the best option for the closer's role since he is an excellent strikeout pitcher (32.6%) without walking all that many batters (7.6%).  His GB / FB rate is slightly below average (0.71), but given his strikeout prowess and the fact that he plays half of his games at cavernous Petco Park, that is acceptable.  The set-up man is expected to be Luke Gregerson, who does not strike out as many as Street (24.5%), but who has a good walk percentage (7.1%) and a much better GB / FB ratio (1.03).  Street is expected to give up 3.21 runs per nine innings and Gregerson is expected to give up 3.35 runs per nine innings, making them a solid one-two bunch at the end of the bullpen.  The Padres are also going to depend heavily on strikeout pitcher Brad Brach.  His strikeout rate would be exceptional (26.8%), but his walk rate (11.8%) more than offsets that strikeout rate.  In addition, he is not a great ground ball pitcher (0.57 GB / FB ratio), so he is a much more risky option out of the bullpen than Street and Gregerson.

The Padres have a young but improving starting lineup.  For once, the lineup for the Padres will likely be more of an asset than a liability.  However, the pitching staff is old, erratic, and unimpressive.  Can the talented line-up offset that less talented rotation and keep the Padres in the playoff hunt?  It doesn't seem so, as the Padres are expected to finish last in the NL West this year with a 77-85 record.

2013 MLB Projections - 12th in the League

This is a continuing series which involve my predictions for baseball standings this year.  Now to continue with teams that are projected to be 12th in each league.  The American League team is projected to finish better than Houston, Seattle, and Cleveland.  The National League team is projected to finish better than Miami, Chicago Cubs, and New York Mets.

12. Minnesota Twins

There was a time not long ago that the Twins were amongst the most consistently successful (regular season) teams in baseball.  The pitching staff won a ton of games and the lineup contained some of the best hitters in baseball, a few of them league MVPs.  That time is now forgotten, after the Twins finished at the bottom of the NL Central in each of the past two years and have flirted with the 100-loss mark each of those seasons.  Is there any hope for the Twins?

When we talk about the Minnesota Twins starting lineup, it must start with catcher Joe Mauer and first baseman Justin Morneau.  Mauer was once one of the best young hitters in baseball, and he was one of a very select group who was considered a candidate to finish a season with the illustrious .400 batting average.  Some of the luster has come off, but Mauer is still a spectacular hitter, putting together a .319/.416/.446 line.  Mauer is not a huge power hitter (though he certainly has some), but he is one of the best hitters in the game at getting on base.  It may be an unsustainable line (he had a .364 BABIP last year, after posting a .319 BABIP the year before), but despite that, he is still one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.  He would probably be best used at the top or second in the lineup, so the bigger power hitters can hit him in.  Speaking of players with more power, Justin Morneau returns to play first base for the Twins.  He was once of the most feared cleanup hitters in baseball, and it seemed like a minor miracle that the Twins could keep both him and Mauer long term.  He has fallen more considerably than Mauer, though.  He is still a very good hitter, but a .333 OBP and .440 Slug % are far off his career norms prior to 2012.  If he could find that power stroke again, the Twins would have a much more dangerous lineup, but at this point, Morneau isn't much more than a league average first baseman.

Perhaps the most feared power hitter on the Twins, though, is left fielder Josh Willingham, who is coming off a spectacular .260/.366/.524 season.  He has always been a decent hitter, but last year, he left the realm of decent and became dangerous.  He hit 35 home runs, and showed that he is more than just a nice hitter to have in the lineup.  He is even more dangerous with a well-constructed lineup; with Mauer and Morneau hitting in front of him in the lineup, he could become an RBI machine.  And he's not just dangerous with the longball; he can get on base as well, as shown by a well above average .366 OBP.  Essentially the rest of the offensive prowess in this lineup will come from designated hitter Ryan Doumit.  Doumit was once one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, but now he has to survive solely off the bat.  That may not be a terrible thing; he put together a line of .275/.320/.461, showing that he can get on base at an okay clip, but he also has a ton of power.  Also returning to the lineup is third baseman Trevor Plouffe.  He put together a solid .235/.301/.455.  He has some work to do getting on base, but he also seemed to get unlucky at getting hits (BABIP was .244 last year).  If he can bring that up to league average, Plouffe could be a solid on-base hitter with serious power.  A lineup with a core of Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, and Plouffe could be exceptionally dangerous.

However, the rest of the lineup is very weak.  Mauer and Willingham are expected to be 6+ eq. run players, while Plouffe, Doumit and Morneau are expected to be in the 4.9 - 5.0 eq. run range.  The only remaining player in the starting lineup with an eq. run statistic above 4 is veteran second baseman Jamey Carroll.  He has virtually no power left (his line last year was .268/.343/.317), but he can get on base.  However, he is getting up there in years and he can't be expected to play much better as time goes on.  Chris Parmelee will return in a much less crowded outfield to start at right field.  With both Denard Span and Ben Revere gone, Parmelee will be expected to produce more in the lineup.  Last year, he put together a line of .229/.290/.380, showing he has some power, but also that he could be a liability on offense with such a low on-base percentage.

Darin Mastroianni will return to the Twins and play an expanded role in the outfield this year.  He can also be called the replacement for Span and Revere, since he has significant speed and is expected to start the year as a lead-off hitter.  While OBP should play a bigger role in determining who should bat at the top of the order (Mastroianni's last year was .328, much lower than Mauer's), speed often plays a role, so Mastroianni can be expected to start the year as the leadoff hitter.  Finishing up the lineup is defensive specialist shortstop Pedro Florimon, Jr.  At any other position (outside of pitcher and probably catcher), Florimon would be an afterthought at the Major League level (.219/.272/.307 and 2.643 equivalent runs last year), but Florimon's defense (along with the fact that there aren't many better options in the Twins' organization) keeps him in the lineup.  He would be much better suited to a minor role as a backup infielder and defensive specialist.

One glaring weak spot for the Twins is the bench, which consists of catcher Drew Butera, first baseman Jeff Clement, infielder Eduardo Escobar, and outfielder Brandon Boggs.  Drew Butera has been a very good defensive catcher, but he is not a solid option to play more than one in ten games.  With Mauer making a slow transition to first base, Butera will have to improve on offense (.198/.270/.279 last year with 2.381 equivalent runs) if he wants to stay relevant with the Twins.  The other notable name on this bench is Jeff Clement, who was once one of the best prospects in baseball.  He has been nothing but a terrible disappointment, putting together a career line of .218/.277/.371 and a .193/.233/.343 line since 2010.  If it wasn't for his one time prime prospect status, Clement would not be sniffing the Major Leagues, but perhaps the Twins can find some kind of offensive spark to make Clement an ok baseball player.  He is far away from being one at this point.

The Twins pitching staff went through a big makeover over the last offseason and is now totally different from what it was even a year ago.  The top three pitchers are all new to this franchise.  The most accomplished pitcher of this group is Vance Worley, who is probably most famous for finishing his rookie season 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 2011.  Worley has come back to earth in the last year, and his underlying stats (18.1% K percentage, 8% walk percentage, 0.84 GB / FB) indicate he is an average 4.30-ish eq. run against pitcher.  As a middle or bottom of the rotation starter, he would be very good.  However, as an "ace" of the staff, he isn't great.  The Twins also brought in two control pitchers.  Kevin Correia is coming off a decent year with the Pirates.  He is a very good walk pitcher (6.3%) and a very good contact pitcher (1.09 GB / FB), which makes up for his weaknesses as a power pitcher (12.2% strikeout percentage).   Much like Worley, he would be a solid option at the bottom of the rotation, but as a top of the rotation starter, he is below average.  The Twins also took a gamble on Mike Pelfrey, who only pitched two games last year with the Mets.  Over the last two years, Pelfrey showed he was very much like Kevin Correia (12.5% K percentage, 7.3% BB percentage, 0.88 GB / FB), and he could be considered a good buy-low candidate.  Usually, though, buy-low candidates work as number 5 starters, not middle of the rotation starter.

The Twins will return two bottom of the rotation starters: Liam Hendriks and Brian Duensing.  These Twins clearly place good control over power pitching, since these pitchers do not strike out many batters but also don't walk many batters.  Hendriks struck out a mere 13.1% of batters last year but only walked 6.8%.  His GB / FB ratio, though, wasn't anything to write home about at 0.70, giving him an expected eq. run against statistic of 4.60.  Duensing is a bit better at striking out batters (14.6%) and at not walking batters (5.7%).  He is also better at contact pitching (0.90), and these minor improvements on Henriks decreases his expected eq. run against statistic to 3.98.  In all reality, there is not an ace in this bunch, and the pitcher who starts the year as the number 5 pitcher (probably Duensing) could end the year as the best pitcher in the rotation.

The closer, though, is set.  Glen Perkins has quietly become one of the top closers in baseball.  He has a very rare ability to strike out a ton of batters (27.8%) without walking many (5.7%) and he does it all as an average contact pitcher (0.75 GB / FB ratio).  He is not well-known because he is with a struggling franchise, but Perkins has become one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball (2.56 ERA last year, 3.10 expected eq. runs against in 2013).  However, the Twins also have a solid setup pitcher in Jared Burton.  Like pretty much everybody on the Twins, he barely walks anybody (6.5%), but he can strike out pbatters at a decent rate (22.5%).  His GB / FB ratio is 0.91, which is better than Perkins, and above average overall.  Another option late in games is Casey Fien, whose non-contact pitching stats are very similar to Burton's (22.7% K percentage, 6.4% walk percentage).  However, as a contact pitcher, he's terrible (0.33 GB / FB ratio last year).  When you give up 3 times as many fly balls as ground balls, it is very difficult to keep the ball in the ballpark and on the infield.  However, overall, if you want to score runs against the Twins, it would be advisable to do it before the seventh inning; the end of the Twins' bullpen is impressive.

The Twins have a very top-heavy and shallow lineup, a dependable but unspectacular pitching staff, and a very good bullpen.  Still, it is very difficult to see the Twins improving significantly in 2013.  They will win a few more games, but they will finish 4th in the AL Central with a projected 75-87 record.

12. Pittsburgh Pirates

When it comes to teams dealing with futility, nobody beats the Pirates.  The last time they finished a season with a record above .500, George Bush Sr. was president, Brett Favre was backing up Don Majkowski with the Packers, and Barry Bonds' neck was twelve sizes smaller and hitting home runs for the Pirates.  Ever since then, Pittsburgh has not made the playoffs or even finished above .500.  Going into August each of the past two years, it seemed like Pittsburgh might exorcise those demons; unfortunately for them, they couldn't even finish with a winning season.  Will 2013 be a year of change for the Pirates?

The starting lineup revolves around superstar Andrew McCutchen, the starting centerfielder.  He is amongst the best in the game in pretty much every aspect.  He can hit for average (.327 average last year, .400 OBP), he can hit for power (.553 Slug % last year), he can field very well, and he can run (20 stolen bases last year, though he got caught 12 times, making him a net liability on the basepaths).  He is one of the top hitters in baseball, and he has been in the MVP discussion the past two years.  He will remain one of the top hitters in baseball, though he may regress a bit in 2013.  His BABIP in 2012 was .375, and that is higher than his career average of .326 and his 2011 BABIP of .291.  No one in the Pirates' lineup really comes close to him in offensive prowess; however, Garrett Jones, the starting first baseman, has some power.  His line last year of .274/.317/.516 shows he can knock the ball out of the ballpark and get on base some.  Outside of McCutchen, Jones is the biggest power threat in the lineup, and is a solid cleanup candidate who can hit over 30 home runs in a season.  It is unrealistic to think of him as a "great" hitter, but he can hold his own in this lineup.

Two other solid hitting infielders are returning to the Pirates' starting lineup.  Once considered a disappointing prospect, Pedro Alvarez will return to start at third base this year.  He is a similar hitter to Garrett Jones (.244/.317/.467), but it is unclear whether 2012 was a fluke or the start of a solid career.  In 2011, Alvarez hit to the tune of .191/.272/.289.  It is clear that he has some holes in his swing, but when he makes contact, the ball is hit hard.  Also returning is second baseman Neil Walker, who comes back with some power but who makes his career hitting to get on base.  His line last year was .280/.342/.426.  His OBP sets him up as a solid top of the lineup hitter, and with an expected eq. run statistic of 4.872 runs in 2013, he can be expected to be a decent hitter in this lineup.

The Pirates also have a newcomer who is expected to have an impact in 2013: Starling Marte, the projected starting left fielder.  He is expected to begin the year as the leadoff hitter, though in limited playing time last year, he only got on base 30% of the time.  His line was still decent, though, at .257/.300/.437, and he is expected to be an integral part of the Pirates' lineup for years to come.  The Pirates will also welcome another newcomer to the starting lineup through free agency: catcher Russell Martin.  Martin was actually signed by the Pirates after they offered more for his services than the Yankees did.  He had a decent year last year (.211/.311/.403), but the thing that is intriguing about him is that he was terribly unlucky last year with a .222 BABIP.  If he can improve on that and hit closer to the league average BABIP, he will be an impressive piece to this lineup.

Finishing out the lineup will be right fielder Travis Snider and shortstop Clint Barmes.  Snider was once a decent prospect with the Toronto Blue Jays, but now he is looking to revitalize his career with the Pirates.  Last year, he put together an ok season with a .250/.319/.378 line.  He can get on base some, but considering the fact that he doesn't hit for much power, he needs to get on base more to be an important fixture in the Pirates' lineup.  One of the most disappointing parts of the Pirates starting lineup last year was Clint Barmes, who signed a multi-million dollar deal last offseason and finished the year with 2.761 equivalent runs per game (.229/.272/.321 line).  He hit for virtually no power, and his OBP was not acceptable.  Even worse, his BABIP was around his career average, so it's not out of the question that he won't improve.  He needs to be able to take more walks or hit for more power to secure a spot in this lineup for the entire year.

The Pirates have an intriguing bench this year, and it's made up of catcher Michael McKenry, first baseman Gaby Sanchez, infielder Brandon Inge, utilityman Josh Harrison, and outfielder Jose Tabata.  Michael McKenry has become one of the better backup catchers in baseball, and he took over the starting duties for struggling Rod Barajas last year.  His batting average isn't impressive (.223), but he hit for some power (.442) and was able to get on base at a decent clip (.320).  It probably won't be long until he is a starting catcher, and his success makes the signing of Russell Martin a little bit of a mystery.  Jose Tabata is another good backup for the Pirates.  He is coming off a disappointing year after signing a long term deal with the Pirates, but as a fourth outfielder, he is a very good option.  Last year, in a disappointing year, he hit at a .243/.315/.348 clip, good for 3.744 equivalent runs per game.  He seemed to get a bit unlucky last year, though, and he is expected to move his equivalent runs statistic back above 4.000 in 2013.

The entire starting rotation for the Pittsburgh Pirates returns from last year.  The ace of the staff is the resurgent A.J. Burnett.  He is coming off one of the best seasons of his career when he went 16-10 with a 3.51 ERA.  The impressive thing is that he could be even better.  He struck out quite a few (21.2%), walked relatively few (7.3%) and he is very good at pitching to contact (1.34 GB / FB).  That is good for an expected equivalent runs against of 3.29, making him a solid top pitcher of the Pirates' staff.  However, he has to avoid pitching like he did with the Yankees; with them, he showed that turning from a really good pitcher to a really bad pitcher can happen over the course of a season.  Also returning is Wandy Rodriguez, who the Pirates acquired from Houston in the middle of last season.  He isn't really a strikeout pitcher (15.9% K percentage), but his low walk percentage (6.4%) and high GB/FB ratio (0.95) make him a solid middle of the rotation option.  James McDonald is a different type of pitcher than Rodriguez.  He was a Cy Young candidate through the All Star break last year, but fell apart in the second half of last year.  He can strike batters out at a high rate (21.2%) but unlike Burnett, he struggles with control (9.7% BB percentage) and with contact pitching (0.66).  He is probably best suited as a bottom of the rotation starter.

The bottom of the Pirates rotation is set with contact pitcher Jeff Karstens and youngster Kyle McPherson.  Karstens is a notorious innings eater.  He does not strike out many batters (17.7%), but he is exceptional at not giving up walks (4%).  This makes his contact pitching crucial, and he is only average at that (0.61 GB / FB ratio).  If he could find a way to induce more ground balls while keeping the walk rate so low, Karstens could be an important, albeit quiet, weapon.  In limited time last year, McPherson didn't show any major weaknesses in any of the three major underlying stats (19.6% K percentage, 6.5% BB percentage, 0.85 GB / FB ratio).  He has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter, but he has to maintain his overall pitching prowess.  He has the potential to strike out more batters, but he has to make sure that he doesn't increase his strikeout percentage a little by increasing his walk percentage a lot.  Francisco Liriano also figures to play a role for the Pirates this year.  He is a dangerous pitcher at striking out batters (24.1%), but batters also should beware his errant pitches (12.6% walk percentage).  He is the anti-Jeff Karstens in that he can overpower hitters, but does so by giving up way too many walks.  If he wants to become the ace he once was, he needs to fix that quick.  If he doesn't, he will give up way too many runs for his own good.

The new closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Jason Grilli, who is replacing former all star closer Joel Hanrahan, who was traded to Boston.  Grilli is excellent at striking out batters (36.9% K percentage), but he needs to control his pitches better (9%).  While he doesn't give up much contact, he does also need to improve that if he wants to become an above average closer.  His 0.44 GB / FB ratio last year will not cut it.  Another option will be short reliever Mark Melancon, who is an overall solid pitcher.  He strikes out batters at a good clip (21.1%) without walking too many (6.2% BB percentage).  On top of that, he induces a lot of ground balls (1.03 GB / FB ratio), and he is expected to have an equivalent runs against statistic in the 3.41 range in 2013.

The Pittsburgh Pirates seem to be showing signs of improvement in recent years, but the brilliant flashes seem to disappear by the end of the year.  They have a chance to be good, but it may take another year or two of middling before they are ready to make any real noise in the National League.  They are projected to finish the year fourth in the NL Central with a 75-87 record.

2013 MLB Projections: 13th in the League

To continue in my series of baseball projections, here are the teams I am projecting to finish 13th in each league.  The Astros and Mariners are supposed to be bad in the American League, and the Marlins and Cubs are supposed to be bad in the National League.  My next pick for the American League, however, may be surprising.

13. Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians have put together a few very good half seasons over the past few seasons, but they were followed up by even more disappointing half seasons.  Cleveland management decided to sign some top free agents this off season to try to combat this.  However, they didn't solve the root of their biggest problem: a weak pitching staff.  Until they solve that issue, Cleveland will be far from a playoff birth.

Their lineup, however, is solid and a few signings this offseason has solidified this lineup even more.  The returning offensive star for this team is catcher Carlos Santana.  For the past few years, Santana has been a rarity: a catcher who is the best hitter in the team's lineup.  Last year, he put together a .252/.365/.420 line, which is equivalent to a 5.326 eq. run statistic, well above average.  The intriguing thing is that his OBP is so high; .365 is exceptional.  I would argue he would be a spectacular leadoff hitter for the Indians; a high OBP is what makes a leadoff hitter good, not a ton of speed. Even more amazing: he did this with a BABIP below .280!  Odds are that he has been unlucky over the past year and could be even better in future years, a huge asset for Cleveland.  The other returning offensive star is from another traditionally weak offensive position: shortstop.  Asdrubal Cabrera returns to man shortstop for Cleveland this year.  He put together a very good year last year: .270/.338/.423, and like Santana, he has the potential to get better.  His BABIP was only slightly above average last year, at .303.  His career BABIP is at .319, which means he might be even better in coming years.

The excitement in Cleveland, though, comes from the signing of two top free agents in the offseason: first baseman Nick Swisher and center fielder Michael Bourn.  It would be hard to find two players more different than these two.  Swisher is a high-OBP, high-power, but slow and average defensively first baseman/corner infielder.  He put together a solid line, like he normally does, last year with the Yankees by hitting at a .272/.364/.473 clip.  He is a hitter much like Carlos Santana: plenty of power, but his big asset is the fact that he can get on base.  Michael Bourn, on the other hand, is a speedy but offensively overrated centerfielder.  He is able to get on base, but with his speed, a .348 OBP may be considered disappointing.  He has virtually no power, as is shown with a .391 Slug %.  He likely will be the leadoff hitter for the Indians this year, and while he is a solid pick-up, his contributions on offense fade in comparison to Swisher's.

Cleveland also made two other pickups in the offseason, though neither are nearly as big as Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn.  They signed designated hitter Mark Reynolds from the Orioles.  He is probably most well known for his power and ability to swing and miss at lots of pitches.  However, like Santana and Swisher, Reynolds is able to get on base, as shown by his .335 OBP.  Another solid option to lead off with no speed, Reynolds will likely be an underrated signing for Cleveland this year.  They also traded away all-star outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to the Cincinnati Reds for Drew Stubbs, a player who has been known to lead off in the past but should hit nowhere near lead off.  Last year was especially disappointing for Stubbs, who put together a poor .213/.277/.333 line last year.  He has put together better years in the past, and he has plenty of power and speed, but if last year is any indication, he will not put together production anywhere near to Choo's.

Rounding out Cleveland's lineup will be second baseman Jason Kipnis, third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, and outfielder Michael Brantley.  Much like the rest of the lineup, these players can hit.  Kipnis is coming off a .257/.335/.379 year, which again shows an ability to get on base.  He doesn't have much power, but having a second baseman at the bottom of the order with this kind of line is a big plus.  Lonnie Chisenhall plays at a position where hitting is supposed to come more with the territory, and he does have a bit more power than .268/.311/.430.  As a supporting player, Cleveland could do a lot worse than Chisenhall.  The leadoff hitter for the past few years for Cleveland has been Michael Brantley.  Brantley, acquired by Cleveland in 2008 in the CC Sabathia trade, has been a solid player in centerfield with Cleveland in the past few years.  Last year, he put together a line of .288/.348/.402, showing a knack for getting on base and even a little power.

The Indians' bench, however, does leave a lot to be desired.  With their lineup, however, Cleveland shouldn't have to use their bench that often, barring injury.  The bench consists of catcher Lou Marson, first baseman Jason Giambi, infielder Ryan Raburn, and outfielder Mike Aviles.  The most recognizable name is Jason Giambi, but his power is pretty much gone.  A while back, it would seem like an impossibility that Giambi's Slug % would be lower than his OBP, but it wasn't even close last year; his line was .225/.372/.303 last year.  Giambi still has the ability to hit a ball out of the ballpark, but his role should be to get on base on a regular basis at this point in his career.

The lineup for Cleveland is very good; their pitching staff is terrible.  The "ace" of their staff is Justin Masterson, who is coming off a very disappointing season.  Last year, he wasn't able to strikeout many (17.6%) but he did walk 9.7% of the batters he faced.  His saving grace is that he gets ground balls at a good rate (1.28 GB / FB), and that kept his ERA below 5.00 last year (it was 4.93 last year).  The number two pitcher in the staff, however, didn't have much luck.  Once one of the young stud pitchers in baseball, Ubaldo Jimenez has fallen badly.  He put together a 17 loss season with a 5.40 ERA last year.  The reason for this is clear: he doesn't do anything particularly well.  He was once a top-line strikeout pitcher.  He struck out 17.8% last year.  With his decreased strikeouts, however, his walks have erupted to the tune of 11.8% last year.  His contact pitching is pitiful as well, as shown by a 0.64 GB/FB rate.  There was no luck about his ERA last year; I'd expect him to give up about 5.48 runs per 9 innings last year.  The other returning starter for Cleveland is lesser known Zach McAllister.  He strikes out quite a few (20.3%) and has a decent walk rate (7%), but his weakness is at contact pitching.  His GB/FB rate is Jimenez like, at 0.68.

Cleveland did sign a few new pitchers in the offseason as well.  Brett Myers comes to Cleveland after a decent year in Houston and with the White Sox.  He is a good control pitcher, only walking 5.5% of the batters he faced last year, though striking out only 15.1%.  On a good team, he would be a bottom of the rotation starter, and at this point, he is quite possibly the best starter on this Cleveland team.  The fifth spot in the rotation is up for grabs, but it probably doesn't matter much who gets it.  Neither player is a difference maker and it wouldn't be a stretch to call them has-beens.  Daisuke Matsuzaka and Scott Kazmir are the two top options for the last spot in the rotation, and given that Matsuzaka pitched at the big league level last year, I am projecting him to be the fifth starter.  Like Masterson and Jimenez, he walks way too many batters and doesn't strike out enough to offset that.

Closing for Cleveland is wild personality Chris Perez.  He is a decent strikeout pitcher (24.4%) and doesn't walk all that many (6.6%) making him a good closer for this franchise.  He has, in the past, been known to lose all control, however, but Cleveland is prepared for that with good strikeout pitcher Vinnie Pestano and contact pitcher Joe Smith available.  Pestano is coming off a year where he struck out over a quarter of the batters he faced (26.6%), though his high walk numbers (8.4%) are frightening.  Smith has even higher walk numbers, at 9%, and his strikeout numbers are not nearly as good (19.1%).  As mentioned, he can get ground balls at a good rate (1.41 GB / FB), so he does provide a good arm in the bullpen.

Despite a strong lineup, Cleveland will struggle with lack of depth and a weak pitching staff.  In a weak division, they may have a shot to make some noise, but I predict they will struggle this season to a last place finish and a 73-89 record.

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13. New York Mets

The New York Mets are coming off an expected bad year last year.  In past years, the Mets were able to sign big name free agents, but last year was not one of them.  A year after their owner was found as one of the many Bernie Madoff victims, the Mets were cash strapped last year and found it difficult to compete the last few years.  Despite this, the Mets had one of the best hitters in the National League last year and the Cy Young winner last year.  The Cy Young winner, 35-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is now gone, and the Mets are still a few years away from being a legitimate contender.

Their lineup is anchored by third base slugger David Wright, who recently signed a long term deal and is going to remain the main hitter in the Mets' lineup.  Last year, he put together a spectacular line of .306/.391/.492, showing that he can hit for some power, but more importantly, he can get on base as well as nearly anybody in Major League Baseball.  That kind of line is good for an eq. run statistic of 6.544 runs.  It is not realistic for him to put together another season like that (the OBP is amazingly high), but it is likely that he is a 6+ eq. run player on a yearly basis.  The only other player in this lineup that can hit anywhere near as well as Wright is first baseman Ike Davis, who came off a serious injury last year and put together a .227/.308/.462 line.  He had an exceptionally slow start to the year last year, and it wasn't until a few months into the season where he saw his batting average creep over .200.  He has significant power, and can provide some security for Wright in the lineup.

The Mets also return a few other nice hitters to the lineup.  Utilityman turned starting second baseman Daniel Murphy returns after a successful year last year.  He put together a solid line of .291/.332/.403.  He is not the most talented player in the world, but he is very versatile and he showed last year that he can hit for some power and with the ability to get on base at an above average clip.  Also returning is left fielder Lucas Duda.  Duda is a player very similar to Murphy in that you can't expect too much from him; he's an average hitter.  He put together a line of .239/.329/.389, showing an ability to get on base without getting all that many hits.  He's not the kind of player you can expect to hit 20+ home runs, but players who get on base nearly a third of the time are often difficult to find.

There are two newcomers to this lineup.  One is a player who has changed teams twice since the season ended: catcher John Buck.  Buck is coming off a terrible year with the Marlins (.192/.297/.347).  He had two solid years in 2010 and 2011, but fell off a cliff with the rest of the Marlins last year.  When he is on, he can be depended on for a .310+ OBP and 20 home runs, but another year like last year could be an indication that he is not capable of putting together good seasons anymore.  Also new to the Mets is Marlon Byrd, coming off an even more disappointing season last year with the Cubs and the Red Sox.  Byrd not only put together an eq. run year of under 2 eq. runs (.210/.243/.245 line, 1.670 eq. runs), but he was busted for PEDs and was forced to serve a 50 game suspension.  Marlon Byrd was a decent hitter only a few years ago, and he can be considered a low risk signing for the Mets at this point.  If he can hit like he did two or three years ago and do so legally, he is well worth the small deal the Mets gave him.

The remaining members of the lineup are young centerfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis and shortstop Ruben Tejada.  Nieuwenhuis put together a decent line for a young outfielder last year, putting together a .242/.315/.376 line.  His OBP is capable of getting higher, but he is going to have to develop a little more of a power stroke to become a force in the lineup.  Tejada put together a solid year for a soft hitting shortstop last year replacing Jose Reyes, with a line of .289/.333/.351.  His relatively high OBP would be well-placed near the top of the lineup, though his lack of power warrants a spot near the bottom of the order.

The bench for the Mets consists of catcher Anthony Recker, infielders Brandon Hicks and Justin Turner, and outfielders Mike Baxter and Collin Cowgill.  The two most valuable members of this bench are Turner and Hicks.  Justin Turner put together a line of .269/.319/.392 line last year, which is not bad for a backup infielder.  He has some pop and some ability to get on base, and is good insurance in case Tejada or Murphy does not continue to live up to potential or if there is an injury in the infield.  In the outfield, having a good backup is essential because Nieuwenhuis and Byrd are far from sure things.  Mike Baxter is a great insurance policy, with a line of .263/.365/.413.  Having a fourth outfielder with an OPS of nearly .800 is a great thing and I wouldn't be surprised if he was a full time starter for the Mets by the middle of this season.

The Mets have a decent well-known pitching staff, but it probably isn't as good as it seems.  The number one pitcher on this staff is likely going to start the year on the injured list; it's Johan Santana.  Johan Stantana was once one of the most feared pitchers in baseball.  He's a decent starter, as he has a good strikeout percentage (22.2%) and walk percentage (7.8%), but his contact pitching (0.50 GB / FB) precludes him from being a true ace.  The other returning pitcher who could be considered the number one pitcher is Jon Niese.  He is a good control pitcher (6.2% BB percentage), and his strikeout percentage (19.7%) and contact pitching stats (0.94 GB / FB) are at least average.  Dillon Gee is another pitcher who is very similar to Niese.  He walks very few (6.3%) and his strikeout percentage (21%) and GB/FB ratio (1.01) are good enough to make him a solid middle of the rotation pitcher in this rotation.

Also in this rotation is Matt Harvey, who, unlike Niese and Gee, is more of a strikeout pitcher (28.6%) than a control pitcher, seeing as he walks over 10% of the batters he faces.  He also struggles with contact pitching, giving up a 0.61 GB/FB ratio.  To shore up the rotation, the Mets signed former Brewer Shaun Marcum, who has had issues staying healthy over the course of his career.  He is a good non-contact pitcher (20.7% K percentage, 7.8% BB percentage), but as a contact pitcher, he is almost as bad as Johan Santana (0.54).  If he can stay healthy for an entire season, he would be a solid middle of the rotation starter; however, he is a solid pick-up to shore up the rotation.

To begin the season, Bobby Parnell will be the closer.  He is a solid strikeout pitcher (21.2%) but he makes his money as a control pitcher (6.9%) and as a contact pitcher (1.60 GB / FB ratio).  He is the best pitcher in this Mets' bullpen and could be one of the top (albeit without much flash) closers in the game.  However, he is likely only the placeholder for Frank Francisco, who is starting the year on the injured list.  Francisco strikes out a few more batters than Parnell (23.9%) but walks a ton (10.7%) and is an even worse contact pitcher (0.49 GB / FB ratio).  The difference is significant; Parnell is projected to give up about 2.88 runs per 9 innings and Francisco is projected to give up about 4.91 runs per 9 innings.  A sleeper option for the closer job, but a solid set-up option is free agent pick-up Brandon Lyon.  Lyon is sort of a middle of the road pitcher; he struck out more than Parnell or Francisco last year (24.4%), but his walk percentage is right in between Parnell and Francisco (7.8%) and he is a below average contact pitcher (0.60 GB / FB).

The Mets have some spectacular pieces in their lineup (David Wright) and in the rotation (Johan Santana and Jon Niese) who, if they play to their potential, could help the Mets compete for a while.  Over the course of the season, though, it is unreasonable to think they can shoulder the load the whole year.  They will finish in the bottom half of the division with a projected 75-87 record.

2013 MLB Projections: 14th in the League

Continuing my posts with projections for the 2013 season, I will now reveal who I pick to finish second to worst in the American League and in the National League in 2013.  So here it goes:

14. Seattle Mariners

It has been a while since the Mariners have been relevant.  For the last several years, the Mariners have been stuck in the cellar of the American League West.  The glory days of Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez, and even Ichiro Suzuki are now gone and they are replaced with the lineup that is now projected to be the worst in baseball.  A decent pitching staff saves them from falling below the Astros in the American League West pecking order in 2013, but this Mariners team is going to struggle mightily in 2013.

The two biggest threats in the starting lineups are both new players the Mariners acquired via trade this offseason.  Michael Morse, a power hitting corner outfielder/first baseman, will likely start the year as the starting left fielder for the Mariners.  He is known for his power, and despite his success with the Nationals in the previous years (.291/.321/.470 line last year), he found himself without a spot in the everyday lineup with the Nationals last year.  So, he goes from being an afterthought with the Nationals to being the power hitter for the Mariners.  The other big bat in the Mariners' lineup is projected to start the year as the designated hitter: Kendrys Morales.  Morales, like Morse, was squeezed out of the line up on his old team, the Angels, and found himself without an everyday position.  Morales' season last year was very similar to Morse's (.273/.320/.467), and they both can be expected to add at least some muscle to the Mariners' terribly weak lineup.

The Mariners also return some serviceable bats to the lineup.  Kyle Seager, the starting third baseman, is probably the best batter to return to the lineup.  He put together a line of .259/.316/.423 last year, which is decent for a #7 or 8 hitter in the lineup, but is not going to win many games as one of the best bats in the lineup.  I do feel that he could see some improvement this year, though, and might be a legitimate middle of the lineup bat sometime in the near future.  He's only going to be 25 years old this year, and if he could hit with a little more power or be a little more patient at the plate, he'll be a decent player.  Two other serviceable batters returning to the lineup are centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Saunders.  They are actually very similar players at the plate.  To become decent everyday players, they both need to improve vastly at getting on base.  Gutierrez only got on base at a .309 clip last year and Saunders only got on base at a .306 clip.  Like Seager, they both have potential to be decent hitters in the lineup, although Gutierrez is already up there in years (he's 29 years old).

Two former top prospects also return to the Mariners' lineup.  Jesus Montero returns, but will have to take over the role of a full time catcher with John Jaso now in Oakland.   Montero, once a top prospect in the Yankees' organization, has yet to put together an overwhelming season.  Last year, playing catcher and designated hitter, Montero put together a fairly weak line of .260/.298/.386.  That kind of line may be ok for a good defensive catcher, but seeing as he was more of a DH in prior years, that seems doubtful.  The Mariners also have former Rangers' top prospect Justin Smoak starting at first base.  He has probably been even more disappointing than Montero, although many will contend that a lot of that has to do with the fact that he has not been given a full time chance to play every day yet.  Last year, he put together a very weak line of .217/.290/.364, and if he wants to maintain any promise as an everyday player, he will need to hit for significantly more power and get on base at a much better clip (.320 or better).

Filling out the lineup will be soft hitting, but good fielding, middle infielders Dustin Ackley and Brendan Ryan.  Ackley is probably the better hitter of the two, putting together a line of .226/.294/.328.  Brendan Ryan, on the other hand, put together the rare feat of returning to a lineup with a sub-.600 OPS (.194/.277/.278 line).  Both of these players are probably Major League worthy with their defensive abilities, but are probably better suited for a defensive specialist/backup infielder role.

The Mariners' bench consists of a few recognizable names: Kelly Shoppach, Robert Andino, Jason Bay, and Raul Ibanez.  Shoppach should be a solid backup catcher to help Montero ease into the starting catching role.  He put together a solid line for a backup catcher last year, .233/.309/.425, and he provides some pop off the bench.  Andino is very similar to Ackley and Ryan.  He is a decent glove, but he put together a pitiful .211/.283/.305 line last year; he shouldn't be expected to provide much more.  The backup outfielders provide some intrigue.  Jason Bay is coming off of a major disappointing time with the Mets where he fell from being a top-flight outfielder to being a Minor League player.  He has battled injuries in recent years and put together a .165/.237/.299 line in limited time last year.  He could provide some value if he could find some of his old swagger.  Raul Ibanez, on the other hand, is coming off a successful postseason run with the Yankees last year.  He is a better hitter than many players in this lineup, but the corner outfield, first base, and desginated hitter positions (Morse, Saunders, Morales, Smoak) are full.

The strongpoint for this Mariners team is its pitching staff; more specifically, the ace of that staff.  King Felix Hernandez returns and can be expected to be a monster on the top of the Mariners' pitching staff this year.  He strikes out a ton of batters (23.8%) while walking relatively few (6%) and even doing a decent job of getting ground balls (0.99 GB / FB).  He did just recently sign a long-term contract, however, so the lack of pressure could help or hurt his production.  The Mariners also signed former Orioles starter Joe Saunders this offseason.  He is coming off consecutive playoff runs and provides value as a low-walk (5.2%) starter.

Also returning for the Mariners' pitching staff are Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, and Blake Beaven.  Iwakuma is coming off a successful year, and will likely continue that as a decent strikeout pitcher (19.5%) who can also pitch to contact quite well (1.12 GB / FB).  Erasmo Ramirez doesn't have quite the contact pitching shimmer that Iwakuma does (0.66 GB / FB), but his high strikeout rates (20.2%) and low walk rate (5%) make him a potential sleeper of a pitcher.  Blake Beaven is the pitcher in this group who probably has the most experience, and he is a decent #5 pitcher.  While his strikeout numbers are non-existent (10.5%), his walk numbers are spectacular as well (3.8%).  If he could find a way to get the ground ball more frequently, he could be a good middle-of-the-rotation-type pitcher.

The bullpen for the Mariners has a bigger issue with the walk.  The closer, Tom Wilhelmson, however, is the least of the problems when it comes to this issue.  Last year, he walked his fair share of batters (8.9%), but he offsets that with a superb strikeout rate (26.7%) and a decent ground ball rate (0.92).  Carter Capps and Charles Furbush are also likely to get innings late in games.  Capps walks over 10% of the batters he faces, making him a dangerous pitcher to put in close games.  He does strike out quite a few though as well (25.7%), but there are better options.  Furbush is one of them.  He struck out an awesome 29.1% of the batters he faced last year while walking 8.8%.  His contact pitching still lags behind Wilhelmson, but he may get some looks if Wilhelmson struggles.

The Mariners' weak offense is going to drag them down this year.  If it wasn't for Astros moving into this division, the Mariners would be an easy pick for last place in this division.  Even with King Felix and a good pitching staff, I'm picking the Mariners to finish 4th in the division with a 72-90 record.

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14. Chicago Cubs

After the Marlins, the Cubs are the weakest team in the National League this year.  With Theo Epstein at the head, the Cubs are on the rise; however, Jim Hendry sold the future of this franchise of a brief run in the mid-2000s where the Cubs were one of the elite teams in baseball.  Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, and Geovany Soto are now all gone and the Cubs are a very young team.  There are some talented members on this team, but expecting much of them in 2013 is expecting too much.

The Cubs have two young players who have the potential to be stars in the coming years.  Shortstop Starlin Castro  can hit for some power and gets on base quite a bit.  Last year, he put together a line of .283/.323/.430, but that was a disappointing and somewhat unlucky year for him.  He is a solid young player for this franchise and is expected to be a speedy shortstop with some pop for many years to come.  He is not a one-trick pony by any stretch of the imagination.  He can hit for power, he can hit for contact, he can run, he can field.  The only question is his head; he doesn't always seem to have it in the game.  The other young potential star for the Cubs is first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who the Cubs received in a trade for prospect Andrew Cashner last year.  Rizzo is a power hitting first baseman, and put together a stellar rookie line of .285/.342/.463 in the second half of last year.  He actually replaced all start first baseman Bryan LaHair and made the fans forget all about LaHair's first half last year.

Also returning to the Cubs are veterans Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus.  Alfonso Soriano signed a monster contract years ago when he was one of the best players in baseball.  He had just put together a 40 home run & 40 stolen base season with the Nationals, and he was supposed to put the Cubs over the top and perhaps break the World Series curse.   That never happened, and now the Cubs are paying for it.  Over $20 million, as a matter of fact.  He actually put together a very good year last year, .262/.322/.499, but given the amount of money he is making, that is not nearly enough.  I'm expecting him to have the highest Eq. Run statistic for the Cubs this year at about 5.291, but a good team uses Soriano as a player to surround its best talent, not as its best talent.  DeJesus is coming off a solid comeback year with the Cubs after a disappointing year with the Athletics.  He is a solid leadoff hitter.  Despite his .263 BA, his .350 OBP makes him a solid pick to put at the top of the lineup on a nightly basis.

From the free agent market, the Cubs have picked up two players to make a platoon in right field: Nate Schierholtz and Scott Hairston.  Of these two players, Schierholtz is the better contact hitter (.257/.321/.407 last year) and Hairston was a better power hitter (.263/.299/.504).  They are really two different types of player who will play on different days.  Schierholtz will play more against right handed pitchers while Hairston is better against left handed pitchers.  In all reality, they are not superstars, they are caretakers.  However, when combined, they are a very solid outfield option.

The other three returning starters for the Cubs are not significant batting threats.  Probably the best of the three is catcher Welington Castillo, who put together a .265/.337/.418.  He took over the starting catching job when Geovany Soto was traded to the Rangers and held onto it reasonably well.  He is expected to continue being an average catcher for the Cubs.  Also returning is Ian Stewart, a once promising infielder expected to start at third base for the Cubs.  He was once a steady power hitter for the Rockies but he has fallen off a cliff in the past two years.  Last year, he put together a .201/.292/.335 line, and he is not expected to be the most solid of starters in the Cubs' lineup.  Rounding out the lineup is light hitting second baseman Darwin Barney.  He is essentially a placeholder in the starting lineup, putting together a line of .254/.299/.335 last year.  He is probably best suited to be a utility infielder, but the Cubs are not deep on the infield, so Barney has been the starting second baseman the last two years and will continue to start there this year.

Outside of the player not starting in the Shierholtz/Hairston platoon, the bench for the Cubs consists of Dioner Navarro, Brent Lillibridge, Luis Valbuena, and Dave Sappelt.  The player most likely to make an impact for the Cubs is utility player Luis Valbuena.  He took over third base for an injured Ian Stewart last year and put together a .219/.310/.340 line.  With him as one of the top options off the bench, however, it is clear that the Cubs' bench is not deep at all.

The Cubs' pitching staff is decent and is full of pitchers who could be solid pieces of a top flight pitching staff.  To begin the year, the top pitcher of the staff is former Notre Dame wide receiver Jeff Samardzija, who has come around as a starting pitcher.  He strikes out nearly a quarter of the batters he faces while walking fewer than 8%.  He is an average contact pitcher, making him an above average pitcher overall.  Also returning to start for the Cubs is Matt Garza, a similar pitcher who will be starting the year on the injured list.  He has quietly been a solid pitcher for the Cubs the last few years, putting together a 22.6% K, 7.6% BB, 0.94 GB/FB line last year.  When he is healthy, he is the ace of the staff.

The rest of the Cubs' starting rotation, when healthy, will consist of players who started with other teams last year.  From the Nationals last year, the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson, a journeyman pitcher who has a knack for putting together solid seasons and not getting recognized for it.  He struck out quite a few (21.3%) last year while walking relatively few (7.3%), showing that he can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.  The Cubs also signed Scott Feldman, a relatively unknown pitcher from the Rangers.  While he doesn't have the strikeout prowess (17.9%) of Samardzija, Jackson, or Garza, he walks even fewer (6%) and seems ready to put together a solid year.  Starting the year on the injured list will be Scott Baker, who puts together a solid strikeout rate (22.5%) and an excellent walk rate (5.8%).  He does struggle with contact pitching, though, where he only has a 0.53 GB / FB ratio.  If he could fix this, the Cubs' rotation could be very very good.

The bullpen, on the other hand, is full of questions.  One of the questions that comes to my mind is "Why is Carlos Marmol still expected to close?"  He is so inconsistent.  When he throws strikes, he is virtually unhittable, as shown by his 29.2%.  But he can't throw strikes consistantly, as shown by his 18.2% walk rate.  He is also a bad contact pitcher with a 0.68 GB / FB ratio.  By my statistics, I'd expect for him to give up over 6 runs per nine innings, by far making him the worst closer in baseball.  I suppose one reason is that the next option, Kyuji Fujikawa, doesn't have Major League experience.  He comes over from the Japanese Major Leagues, and you can expect a drop-off in statistics moving from Japan's Major Leagues to the US's.  The best comparison I heard is that Japan's Major League is similar in talent to a AA Minor League Baseball team in the US.  Looking at Fujikawa's stats last year, I'm expecting him to give up 4.53 runs per nine innings, which is bad, especially for a late game reliever.  He could be spectacular, though... it's just impossible to tell.  The other internal option to close is Shawn Camp.  He does not throw many strikeouts (16.5%), which means he probably won't be given the chance to close.  However, his walk percentage is very low (6.4%) and I'd expect him to give up about 3.99 runs per nine innings, better than the other Cubs' options.

The Cubs are a team that has some pieces in place to be a solid team.  Unlike the Mariners, I could see them putting together a decent season this year.  Their pitching staff is probably average and with Soriano, Castro, Rizzo, and DeJesus in the lineup, I could see this team fighting early in the season.  They have too many holes for the long haul, though, and I expect them to finish in the cellar of the NL Central this year with a 71-91 record.

 

2013 MLB Projections: 15th in the League

In anticipation of the 2013 baseball season, I put together a projection of the 25 man rosters for each MLB team (13 position players, 12 pitchers).  From there, I used my Eq. Runs and Eq. Runs Against statistics to determine how many runs I expect each team to score and to give up.  After completing that, 29 of the 30 teams were showed a record above .500.  This is because I only projected the 25 best players who were likely to make an impact on each team.  Each team will also have their marginal players who will both drag down the runs scored and increase the runs against.  Because of that, I found how many runs were scored per game in the American League in 2012 and in the National League in 2012.  I applied a factor to adjust each team for the marginal players they can expect to see during the course of the season.  Doing that, I have it so the runs scored equal the runs against in each league.  Using the runs scored and against, I used Bill James' pythagorean formula to determine how many games each team would win.

Now that I have my official 2013 projections, I will start posting them, adding one team from each league per post.  I will start from the worst and build up to the best.

First, I will start with the projected worst team in the American League:

15. Houston Astros

As expected, the Houston Astros, the newest members of the American League, are also projected to be the worst team in the American League this year.  As a matter of fact, they are the only team that showed a projected sub-.500 record even without applying any adjusting factors to the runs scored and against statistics.  They are in the fullest of full rebuilding modes and the vast majority of their lineup consists of players the average baseball fan has never heard of.  They are going to go through a lot of lumps before becoming relevant again.  However, most baseball experts will agree the Astros are smart to go into full rebuild mode instead of trying to cling to a .500 record every year but going nowhere.

The star of the Houston Astros last year on offense was Jose Altuve, the miniscule second baseman.  He put together a solid line of .290/.340/.399 last year, showing that he can get on base at a very good clip and he even has some power.  He is not the kind of player to build a successful franchise around, but I have him as a 4.575 Eq. Run player, which is not bad, especially for a second baseman.  The other star of the Astros' infield last year, Jed Lowrie, was traded to Oakland in the offseason for Chris Carter, who will likely start the year manning left field.  He has the highest expected Eq. Run statistic on the Astros this year, at 5.676, and he is expected to be the heart of the Astros offense this year.  His line of .239/.350/.514 last year shows that he is a very patient batter with significant power.  He was more of a platoon player with Oakland last year, so his line will likely take a hit from being an everyday player with Houston this year.

Two other significant offensive players returning to the Astros lineup this year are first baseman Brett Wallace and center fielder Justin Maxwell.  Brett Wallace has respectably replaced Carlos Lee at first base, putting together a line of .253/.323/.424, for an equivalent run statistic of 4.593.  While not mindblowing, Wallace has shown some power and a knack to get on base at a decent line and will likely get better as he gets more experience in the big leagues.  Justin Maxwell put together a line of .229/.304/.460 (4.489 eq. run statistic).  While he certainly cannot be depended on to get on base, he has a bit of power, something desperately needed in the Astros' lineup.

The rest of the Astros' lineup will consist of a few journeymen (Carlos Pena, Tyler Greene) and a few young players (Jason Castro, Matt Dominguez, Fernando Martinez).  Carlos Pena has always been known as a power hitter, but that he has transformed into a very patient hitter in the past few years.  Despite a .197 batting average last year, Pena had a .330 OBP and a .354 Slug %.  He can no longer be expected to hit 40+ home runs, but he could still be a valuable piece to this lineup.  Tyler Greene, on the other hand, is a marginal baseball player at best.  His defense isn't spectacular and his line last year was .230/.274/.400, which is a line that is more suited for a defensive specialist.  Jason Castro has been inconsistent and has been injured quite a bit over the past few years, but when he plays, he puts together a decent line for a catcher, which is the position in baseball where one can expect the least offense production (.257/.334/.401).  Matt Dominguez is probably the only player in this lineup who is inexperienced enough but talented enough to be considered a decent prospect.  His line last year of .273/.304/.435 is nothing to scoff at, but the Astros are hoping for even more from him this year and in the future.  Fernando Martinez was part of the revolving door outfield last year but he has some power (.466 Slug %), which puts him in the lead for a starting outfield spot to begin the year.  If he can continue to put together some power numbers, he will be an important piece to this Astros' lineup.

The bench for the Astros is expected to consist of defensive specialist catcher (and personal favorite) Carlos Corporan, utility infielder Marwin Gonzalez, veteran outfielder Rick Ankiel, and former starter J.D. Martinez.  J.D. Martinez is likely the only player of this group to have a meaningful impact for the Astros.  He has, in the past, been able to put together a reasonable offensive season, but his star has fallen and now finds himself behind Carter, Maxwell, and Fernando Martinez in the outfield.

The pitching staff also consists of a lot of unknown players.  The ace of the staff and the longest-tenured Astro is Bud Norris. He is able to strike out players at a strong clip (22.5%), but his walk percentage (9%) and his groundball/fly ball percentage (0.65) leave a lot to be desired.  Other returning starters include Lucas Harrell and Jordan Lyles.  My favorite pitcher of the bunch is Jordan Lyles, who does not strike batters out at a good clip (15.80%), but is able to keep walks down (6.70%) and is better at getting ground balls (1.16).  Lucas Harrell is more of a contact pitcher; he strikes out pitchers at a 16.9% clip, walks them at a 9.4% clip, but has a 1.36 GB/FB ratio.  Filling up the rotation will be two newcomers: Phil Humber and Erik Bedard.  Phil Humber comes from the White Sox, and he is a marginal pitcher at best.  His strikeout percentage is average (18.4%), but his walk percentage (9.5%) and his GB/FB ratio (0.54) are, simply put, bad.  Erik Bedard used to be a solid pitcher but he is well past his prime.  He walks way too many batters (10.10% last year) to offset his decent strikeout percentage (21.20%).

The bullpen will be led by closer Jose Veras and setup men Wesley Wright and Hector Ambriz.  One issue I find with closers is that they are often put in that position strictly because of their strikeout percentage.  Ambriz struck out 19.20%, Wright struck out 24.20%, and Veras struck out 26.30%.  Therefore, it seems that Veras is the opening day closer (which, let's be honest, isn't a position that the Astros will need all that often this year).  He simply walks too many batters to be effective (13.30% last year) and isn't enough of a contact pitcher to offset that (0.85 GB / FB).  Wesley Wright is the best reliever with the Astros, in my opinion, and that's because he walks only 7.6% of the batters he faced last year while getting more ground balls (1.29) and striking out nearly as much as Veras.  Ambriz is another intriguing option, but he doesn't strike out as many as Wright, he walks more (9.10%), and he doesn't get as many ground balls as a contact pitcher (0.76).

The Astros will be in the cellar of the American League West this year with a projected record of 67-95.

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15. Miami Marlins

Another shocker here, I have the Miami Marlins as the worst team in the National League in 2013.  Last year, the Marlins were a fashionable pick to win the National League East, or at least make the playoffs.  That didn't happen.  The Nationals won the division, and the Braves, Phillies, and Mets all finished ahead of the Marlins in the division as well, as the Marlins disappointed its fan by going 69-93.  In the offseason, cheapskate owner played his tricks again, selling off the most expensive players on the roster for young prospects and marginal Major Leaguers.  In all reality, it's not the most terrible of strategies, except the Marlins don't have a consistent fan base and the people of Miami are now stuck with a terrible team to play in a baseball stadium they largely funded.  In the meantime, Loria makes profits by taking the league's revenue sharing money. 

From last year's starting lineup, catcher John Buck, first baseman Carlos Lee, second baseman Omar Infante, shortstop Jose Reyes, third baseman Hanley Ramirez, and outfielder Emilio Bonifacio are gone.  Still remaining (albeit disgruntled) is right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, one of the elite power hitters in baseball.  He put up a line of .290/.361/.608 last year, good for an Eq. Run statistic of 7.252.  One of the statistics I look at to determine if the player overperformed or underperformed in a given year is BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  The league average BABIP is in the .290 - .300 range, meaning that when a ball is hit into play (i.e., not a strikeout or a home run), the average player will hit for about a .290 - .300 average.  Some players can outperform that and some will underperform that, but generally, that's a good starting point in determining how lucky a player has been.  He overperformed that a bit last year by hitting for a .344 BABIP, but I regressed it to an amount below his career average and I'm still expecting an expected eq. run statistic of 6.901 for him this year.  That keeps him as a very elite hitter in baseball.  One may wonder, however, how motivated he will be to play this year.  He has been vocally unhappy about the Marlins' offseason moves this year.

Also returning to the Marlins lineup this year will be Justin Ruggiano and Logan Morrison.  Justin Ruggiano, a longtime middling backup outfielder, got his chance with the Marlins last year and ran with it, to a .313/.374/.535 line last year.  While it is unlikely he can match those numbers this year, he will likely start the year as the Marlins' most prolific hitter not named Giancarlo.  That's a scary thought, given that prior to last year, he was not even a sure-thing major leaguer.  Logan Morrison, on the other hand, came up as a good prospect and has survived as a corner outfielder and first baseman for the Marlins.  His stats have not been spectacular (.230/.308/.399 line last year), but keep in mind he had a fairly unlucky BABIP of .248.  If he can even get to the league average BABIP level, which shouldn't be out of the question for somebody who has been a three-year starter in the Majors, he could be a good hitter in the Marlins' lineup and could help Ruggiano and Stanton put together some runs.

Second baseman Donovan Solano also returns for the Marlins.  He took over the second base job after Omar Infante was traded, along with Anibal Sanchez, to the Tigers.  He put together a decent year with a .295/.342/.375 line, but he had an extraordinarily high BABIP of .357 last year.  Some players will have higher BABIPs than others, but very few elite hitters can achieve a BABIP of .357 over a long period of time.  Solano will go through his lumps, and it is unreasonable to expect another line like his line last year.  I'm expecting an Eq. Run statistic of 3.925 for him this year, down from 4.476 last year.  This would make him a below average hitting second baseman.  Another returner is catcher Rob Brantly, although his role will expand from his minor backup role to John Buck last year.  His line was spectacular (.290/.372/.460) but his BABIP was high (.321) and he has a small sample size.  I'm expecting him to take a step back this year.

The rest of the starting lineup for the Marlins will be new.  The Marlins received shortstop prospect Adeiny Hechevarria in the trade with the Blue Jays this offseason, and he is expected to start the year at the position.  He is very young and still somewhat raw, which can be seen in his meager line with the Blue Jays last year (.254/.280/.365), but he can be expected to improve and will likely be a keystone for the Marlins for years to come.

Also new to the Marlins lineup are two older free agents: left fielder Juan Pierre and third baseman Placido Polanco.  Pierre is coming off a very good year for the Phillies.  Once known as one of the fastest players in the game, Pierre has slowed down considerably and now has to depend a lot more on his bat to get significant playing time.  He hit well enough to get a full time job with the Phillies last year (.307/.351/.371) but his career indicates he may have overachieved.  Placido Polanco, on the other hand, underachieved pretty significantly last year (.257/.302/.327).  He has been a dependable infielder in the past, but his age might be catching up to him.  I expect him to improve a bit next year (his BABIP last year was .274) but not significantly enough for him to be a major piece for a Major League Baseball team.

The bench for the Marlins is fairly weak as well.  The bench consists of catcher Jeff Mathis (.218/.249/.393), infielder Nick Green (.225/.291/.347), infielder Greg Dobbs (.283/.313/.386), utility player Chone Figgins (.181/.262/.271), and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez (.192/.267/.301).  Out of this group, Greg Dobbs is the most dependable hitter.  He has been a long-time bench player who has the knack to occasionally get a big hit, but you don't want to play him every day, especially since he plays positions (first base and third base) that are usually played by solid hitters.  Still, he's a solid player off the bench.  The rest of the bench, on the other hand, are on the bench because they play catcher (Mathis), for defense (Green, Figgins), or because of their speed (Hernandez).

The pitching staff for the Marlins isn't really anything to write home about either.  Ricky Nolasco returns as the de facto ace of the staff.  He is a good control pitcher (5.7% walk percentage) but he doesn't strike out many and is, in all reality, an average starter at this point.  For a good team, he would be a number 3 or 4 pitcher; for the Marlins, he is the clear number one guy.  Don't be surprised if he is traded sometime over the course of the season.  The other top pitcher for the Marlins came over in the trade with Toronto: Henderson Alvarez.  Alvarez makes his living as a contact pitcher, with a groundball/fly ball ratio of 1.33 last year.  He does not strike out many batters at all (9.8%) but he also doesn't walk many (6.7%).  If he can maintain his abilities as a contact pitcher but also develop a dominating pitch or two, he could be a very good pitcher; potentially the best for the Marlins.

Also returning are starters Wade LeBlanc, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob Turner.  LeBlanc and Turner are very similar pitchers, based on their statistics last year (LeBlanc had a 15.1% strikeout percentage and 6.7% walk percentage whereas Turner had a 15.6% strikeout percentage and a 6.9% walk percentage last year); however, as a contact pitcher, Turner had a fairly average ground ball / fly ball ratio (0.86) whereas LeBlanc was well below average (0.55).  Turner has a better upside based on this, but he's also less experienced in this role.  Nathan Eovaldi also has a similar strikeout percentage (14.8%) but he walks too many batters (8.9%).  As a contact pitcher, he's average (0.85).

Another player the Marlins let go after the past season was closer Heath Bell, a huge disappointment with the Marlins with a 5.09 ERA.  Replacing him was Steven Cishek, who performed better (2.69 ERA) but who certainly got a bit lucky in doing so.  Again, this is a case of a pitcher having a good strikeout ratio (24.7%) getting the role, although the other options are not that much better.  Cishek does walk too many hitters (10.6% last year), but his ground ball / fly ball ratio made up for most of that (1.09) and his expected runs against is 4.09.  That is certainly not great, but it's hard to find someone much better in the Marlins bullpen.

The other options for the Marlins are veteran Jon Rauch and younger Ryan Webb.  Rauch is more of a control pitcher; he only struck out 18% of the batters he faced last year but he only walked 5.2%.  As a contact pitcher, though, he is not good; his ground ball / fly  ball ratio was only 0.58.  He gives up a lot of home runs and extra base hits, which leads to a lot more runs that groundball hits, which are usually singles.  Webb strikes out even less than Rauch (16.3%) and has a near average walk percentage (7.4%), but his advantage is that he is a good contact pitcher with a ground ball / fly ball ratio of 1.09.  Cishek (4.09), Rauch (3.98), and Webb (4.01) have nearly identical equivalent runs against statistics, so to me, they are pretty interchangable.  A smart manager may use a committee where Cishek pitches to players who are susceptible to strikeouts, Rauch pitches to patient hitters, and Webb pitches to players who depend on contact.  Still, the closer role is not one that the Marlins will need to worry about much this year.

The Marlins had a disappointing year last year, and they took a step back in talent this year.  Even worse, they took about 10 miles' worth of steps back with fan relations last year, so we can expect the Marlins to finish amongst the worst teams in baseball in a stadium with hundreds of fans.  My official projection is last place in the NL East, with a 69-93 record.